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The Census has released its population estimates for 2020

Started by kernals12, December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PM

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The Nature Boy

Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Pennsylvania and Ohio probably have multiple reasons for their decline. Vermont as well. As for West Virginia, the decline of the coal industry has to be a major factor, but I'd think the eastern panhandle would be growing as people escape the DC area and Loudon County.

The Eastern Panhandle might grow more if there was direct freeway access to it from DC. Right now, the best you can do is to take I-270 to Frederick and then US-340 to Jefferson County, WV. The MARC train is there and goes to Union Station but it's still an almost 2 hour train ride.

Charles Town, WV is still 70-80 miles from downtown DC so a freeway can only do so much. Given proximity, Jefferson County is really the only Eastern Panhandle county that can really be impacted by DC. If anything, I expect Baltimore and Richmond to be the biggest beneficiaries of people trying to escape the DC area. They're lower cost of living places that are still urban and relatively close to DC for people who work remote but still need to get back to the District for meetings that can't be done remotely.

I agree that the Eastern Panhandle could be a retirement destination for DC workers but that will only lead to modest growth since they won't be bringing kids (who might stay in the state and have their own kids and so on...).


seicer

With the construction of Corridor H/US 48, you are seeing a lot more vacation houses springing up near Davis/Thomas, WV. It's a convenient distance from the Washington D.C. metro (and Baltimore and other major cities).

Brandon

Quote from: kkt on December 29, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Florida allows one to retain one's residence after a bankruptcy.

So do other states such as Illinois.
"If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention." - Ramsay Bolton

"Symbolic of his struggle against reality." - Reg

kernals12

I just want to note that for the bottom 80% of the income distribution, tax rates in California are the same or lower than in Texas.
https://itep.org/whopays/

That's because while Texas is a low tax state, the few taxes it does impose are overwhelmingly levied on those with the least ability to pay. Meanwhile, California has its most affluent residents shoulder much of the cost of government.

Ultimately, the migration out of California is probably more due to real estate costs. And California has always been a high tax state, especially before Prop 13.

hotdogPi

It seems like moving trends are based on geography, not politics.

MA, CT, RI, NJ: Densely populated, and they have been losing relative importance for decades.
PA, NY: Half in the list above, half in the Rust Belt.
OH, MI: Rust Belt, at least in the areas that are populated.
IL: See point #1 above; 2/3 lives in Chicagoland, so they might want to move outward.
VT: While not densely populated unlike the rest of the Northeast, it's not really a destination to move to.
AK, HI: My guess would be the high cost of living due to being so remote. I'm a bit surprised about AK; I thought its trends were similar to WA/OR/ID and gaining.
WV: Coal is done. The epitome of rural population loss.
MS: There's a whole meme that Mississippi is last in everything. People don't want to live here.
LA: Hurricanes, flooding, and partly the same reason as MS: low quality of life.
CA: This one probably is a function of the state government (they have made some bad decisions, although I think they need a different Democrat for governor, not a Republican). Normally, I would say that extreme urbanization and lack of water are issues, except that the Phoenix area is gaining rapidly despite having both those issues.

If I knew that 16 states were on the list before I saw the list itself, I would have been surprised that AK was on the list and that ME, AL, and KY were off the list.
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

ftballfan

The 2020 estimates are used to determine apportionment for House seats for the next ten years.

Here are my estimates for how many House seats each state will have from 2023-2033:

Alabama: 7 (no change from 2013-2023)
Alaska: 1 (no change)
Arizona: 10 (+1)
Arkansas: 4 (no change)
California: 52 (-1; CA's first time ever losing a seat)
Colorado: 8 (+1)
Connecticut: 5 (no change)
Delaware: 1 (no change)
Florida: 29 (+2)
Georgia: 14 (no change)
Hawaii: 2 (no change)
Idaho: 2 (no change)
Illinois: 17 (-1)
Indiana: 9 (no change)
Iowa: 4 (no change)
Kansas: 4 (no change)
Kentucky: 6 (no change)
Louisiana: 6 (no change)
Maine: 2 (no change)
Maryland: 8 (no change)
Massachusetts: 9 (no change)
Michigan: 13 (-1)
Minnesota: 7 (-1)
Mississippi: 4 (no change)
Missouri: 8 (no change)
Montana: 1 (no change; so close to getting a second seat)
Nebraska: 3 (no change)
Nevada: 4 (no change)
New Hampshire: 2 (no change)
New Jersey: 12 (no change)
New Mexico: 3 (no change)
New York: 26 (-1; narrowly avoids losing a second seat)
North Carolina: 14 (+1)
North Dakota: 1 (no change)
Ohio: 15 (-1)
Oklahoma: 5 (no change)
Oregon: 6 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 17 (-1)
Rhode Island: 1 (-1)
South Carolina: 7 (no change)
South Dakota: 1 (no change)
Tennessee: 9 (no change)
Texas: 39 (+3)
Utah: 4 (no change)
Vermont: 1 (no change)
Virginia: 11 (no change)
Washington: 10 (no change)
West Virginia: 2 (-1)
Wisconsin: 8 (no change)
Wyoming: 1 (no change)

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: ftballfan on December 30, 2020, 10:06:36 AM
The 2020 estimates are used to determine apportionment for House seats for the next ten years.

No, the 2020 estimates recently released are not what is used to determine apportionment. The official population count from the 2020 Census will be used for that purpose, though the estimates are likely close enough that we can accurately project apportionment.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

DTComposer

Quote from: 1 on December 30, 2020, 09:07:34 AM
CA: This one probably is a function of the state government (they have made some bad decisions, although I think they need a different Democrat for governor, not a Republican). Normally, I would say that extreme urbanization and lack of water are issues, except that the Phoenix area is gaining rapidly despite having both those issues.

This is admittedly a small sample size, but everyone I know who has moved from California in the past couple of years (20 or so households) or is actively looking to move has been due to 1) housing costs, and 2) lack of work in an industry double-hit by Coronavirus and AB5 (the bill that made qualifying as an independent contractor much more difficult - it was targeted at the ride-share industry, but ended up harming other industries to a much greater extent).

By moving they're mostly giving up working in their desired/trained profession (since even in non-Coronavirus times there's only a handful of cities in the country where there's much opportunity to make a living in their line of work, and those cities all suffer from the same affordability issues).

hbelkins

Quote from: 1 on December 29, 2020, 01:41:30 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on December 28, 2020, 01:22:44 PMAlaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan,  Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia.

There's a common thread connecting those states in bold. High taxes are a dead giveaway. There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

You bolded 7 of 16 states. Less than half.

I'd think weather would play a big role in the ones I did not bold (along with some of the ones I did bold). Plus, the high cost of living in Alaska and Hawaii can't be attractive.I'm not sure where the people in Louisiana and Mississippi are going. I can see Louisiana residents moving to Texas, and Mississippians going to either Tennessee or Florida. For some reason, Tennessee appeals to a lot of people because of its lack of an income tax. But the sales taxes there are too onerous for my liking. I've long said I prefer income taxes to sales taxes.

Quote from: Brandon on December 30, 2020, 07:13:22 AM
Quote from: kkt on December 29, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Florida allows one to retain one's residence after a bankruptcy.

So do other states such as Illinois.

Bankruptcy is a federal thing, not a state thing.


Government would be tolerable if not for politicians and bureaucrats.

kkt

Quote from: Brandon on December 30, 2020, 07:13:22 AM
Quote from: kkt on December 29, 2020, 08:39:56 PM
Quote from: hbelkins on December 29, 2020, 12:30:03 PM
There's a reason Donald Trump moved from New York to Florida, and the weather isn't it.

Florida allows one to retain one's residence after a bankruptcy.

So do other states such as Illinois.

It looks like Illinois caps the amount of equity that can be protected:

QuoteUnder the Illinois exemption system, a homeowner can exempt up to $15,000 of equity in a home or other property covered by the homestead exemption.
- https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/illinois-bankruptcy-homestead-exemption.html

Compare:

QuoteIn bankruptcy, the Florida homestead exemption allows a primary residence of unlimited value to be protected from creditors as long as the debtor has lived in Florida for 40 months or more, and the property is not larger than half an acre in a municipality or 160 acres elsewhere. If the 40-month residency requirement has not been met, the homestead exemption is capped at $160,375 per federal law.
- https://www.natlbankruptcy.com/chapter-7-bankruptcy-in-florida-what-you-need-to-know/

Road Hog

The only two reasons Twitchy moved his domicile to Florida are: 1. Taxes, and 2. Taxes.

kernals12

Quote from: Road Hog on December 31, 2020, 10:04:10 PM
The only two reasons Twitchy moved his domicile to Florida are: 1. Taxes, and 2. Taxes.


And because most New Yorkers hate his guts, not least of which the state's Attorney General.

kernals12

Predictions have been wrong before. In 1936, the census predicted we'd peak at just 135 million by 1950 and then start to drop. Then came the baby boom. By 1967, the year we smashed through the 200 million mark, the census' most optimistic forecast had nearly half a billion people by 2015. Then came the baby bust. By 1989, the census was once again forecasting population decline, with a peak of 302 million in 2038. Appropriately, a demographer at the Census Bureau predicted "we will be wrong". And he was right. There was a huge wave of immigration in the 90s, causing us to pass the 300 million mark in 2006 and a forecast for 400 million by the 2040s. Then fertility rates dropped amidst the recession and haven't recovered and since 2016 immigration has plunged, bringing us to where we are now.

I'm an optimistic person. I think artificial wombs and robot nannies will cause another baby boom.

Scott5114

Quote from: kernals12 on January 16, 2021, 08:44:25 PM
I'm an optimistic person. I think artificial wombs and robot nannies will cause another baby boom.

As someone who works in the cannabis industry, I thank you for your patronage.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: Scott5114 on January 16, 2021, 11:52:43 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 16, 2021, 08:44:25 PM
I'm an optimistic person. I think artificial wombs and robot nannies will cause another baby boom.

As someone who works in the cannabis industry, I thank you for your patronage.

Isn't that just the premise of the Matrix and the Battlestar Galactica reboot merged?

Brandon

Quote from: Scott5114 on January 16, 2021, 11:52:43 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 16, 2021, 08:44:25 PM
I'm an optimistic person. I think artificial wombs and robot nannies will cause another baby boom.

As someone who works in the cannabis industry, I thank you for your patronage.

Whatever it is, it's pretty strong stuff.
"If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention." - Ramsay Bolton

"Symbolic of his struggle against reality." - Reg

mgk920

Quote from: kernals12 on January 16, 2021, 08:44:25 PM
Then fertility rates dropped amidst the recession and haven't recovered and since 2016 immigration has plunged, bringing us to where we are now.

And the marriage rate among native Millennials and especially the 'Z'/post-Millennial crowd is dropping FAST.  That will have an effect, too.  Over the next few decades immigration rates from places that still have strong cultural and religious traditions favoring large families will be more and more important in population growth rates.

Mike

3467

There are very few places outside Africa with fertility rates over 2 . The entire world seems headed to 1.7 or less. Some Chinese cities are less than one.

kernals12

Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 04:26:36 PM
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be

I'm pretty confident it isn't going to have birthing pods and Cylon babysitters anytime soon. 

kernals12

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on January 17, 2021, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 04:26:36 PM
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be

I'm pretty confident it isn't going to have birthing pods and Cylon babysitters anytime soon.
What is soon to you? By 2050, I'm going to ripe middle age.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 05:45:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on January 17, 2021, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 04:26:36 PM
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be

I'm pretty confident it isn't going to have birthing pods and Cylon babysitters anytime soon.
What is soon to you? By 2050, I'm going to ripe middle age.

It won't be 2050.  Out of curiosity what does birth pods and a race of androids servants have to do with the census?  Will the Androids be factored into the census?

hotdogPi

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on January 17, 2021, 06:07:06 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 05:45:39 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on January 17, 2021, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: kernals12 on January 17, 2021, 04:26:36 PM
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be

I'm pretty confident it isn't going to have birthing pods and Cylon babysitters anytime soon.
What is soon to you? By 2050, I'm going to ripe middle age.

It won't be 2050.  Out of curiosity what does birth pods and a race of androids servants have to do with the census?  Will the Androids be factored into the census?

Depends on who is in charge then. The parties will have realigned by then. The Democratic Party will become pro-android, while the Republican party will become anti-android; this is the primary difference between the parties in 2050, even more than liberal/conservative.
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

Scott5114

Quote from: 1 on January 17, 2021, 07:43:15 PM
Depends on who is in charge then. The parties will have realigned by then. The Democratic Party will become pro-android, while the Republican party will become anti-android; this is the primary difference between the parties in 2050, even more than liberal/conservative.

The Democratic Party will become pro-Android, mostly because they've become a subsidiary of Alphabet. You're forgetting that the former Republican Party will have been renamed to iParty to solidify their anti-Android stance, a casualty of having been bought out by Apple.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

kphoger

Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.



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