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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 83049 times)

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #750 on: November 11, 2020, 02:22:21 PM »

Θ (uppercase since I start a sentence) is now fully tropical, and thus 2020 is now per my reckoning (a bit later than NHC's since as you know I don't recognize subtropical storms) the year in which more tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic. It is almost a hurricane as well, and is heading towards... me!

At what angle is theta approaching?

[ Hypotenuse has joined the chat ]
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #751 on: November 16, 2020, 09:58:37 AM »

Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #752 on: November 16, 2020, 01:19:15 PM »

Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.

First Cat 5 of the season, apparently.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #753 on: November 16, 2020, 04:08:07 PM »

Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.

First Cat 5 of the season, apparently.

First Cat 5 that was designated as such when the storm was ongoing. I fully expect Laura and Eta to be revised to 5s in the post-season analysis.
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #754 on: November 16, 2020, 10:25:41 PM »

Iota is now a Category 5. Looks like its track is slightly further south than where Eta hit Nicaragua, but it's still going to be a huge mess affecting substantially the same area.

First Cat 5 of the season, apparently.

First Cat 5 that was designated as such when the storm was ongoing. I fully expect Laura and Eta to be revised to 5s in the post-season analysis.

Ehhh I don't think Laura will be revised quite to category 5. Operationally it was assessed at 150 mph, and I do expect to see an increase to 155...but I think 160 is just a bit too far given the data that was collected by the Hurricane Hunter planes that night.

Eta on the other hand has a stronger case for a cat 5 post-season upgrade.

kenarmy

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #755 on: February 14, 2021, 12:26:19 AM »

When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #756 on: February 16, 2021, 01:16:03 PM »

When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.

Considering the high number of high-impact tropical cyclones in 2020, it will probably be a while.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #757 on: February 16, 2021, 01:38:08 PM »

A few days ago cyclone Faraji in the South-West Indian dissipated. It briefly became the first Category 5-equivalent cyclone in 2021. At least it stayed away from land. To date no Very Intense Tropical Cyclone (the highest category in the scale used by Météo-France in Reunion) has made landfall at that intensity.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #758 on: February 16, 2021, 02:43:38 PM »

When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.

Considering the high number of high-impact tropical cyclones in 2020, it will probably be a while.

Of the 31 Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2020, they've only completed the post-season reports for 13 of them as of this writing - and those were all short or low-impact systems. It's going to be a loooong time.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #759 on: February 16, 2021, 04:08:53 PM »

When are they going to finish? I think Gamma was briefly a hurricane and Zeta was a cat 3.

Considering the high number of high-impact tropical cyclones in 2020, it will probably be a while.

Of the 31 Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2020, they've only completed the post-season reports for 13 of them as of this writing - and those were all short or low-impact systems. It's going to be a loooong time.

Indeed. Of the 13 they've done, Hanna had the most impact, while Alpha had the most changes.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #760 on: February 26, 2021, 12:03:56 PM »

NOAA is apparently considering moving the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 back to May 15:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/26/hurricane-season-lengthening-start-date/

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #761 on: February 26, 2021, 01:27:00 PM »

NOAA is apparently considering moving the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 back to May 15:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/26/hurricane-season-lengthening-start-date/
I think that's a great idea considering all the storms recently before the month of June.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #762 on: March 17, 2021, 11:32:28 AM »

NOAA is apparently considering moving the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 back to May 15:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/26/hurricane-season-lengthening-start-date/
I think that's a great idea considering all the storms recently before the month of June.

Great, as if we don't have enough hurricanes during the existing season. While we're at it, why don't we move all the Deer Crossing signs, too?

[cueing up Rainier Wolfcastle "thats the joke" meme…]
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #763 on: March 18, 2021, 12:33:17 AM »

The Greek alphabet names won't be used anymore. A second list of names will be used instead if the first 21 are used.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek
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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #764 on: March 18, 2021, 04:51:21 PM »

Dorian from 2019 (thus should have been retired last year, but the meeting was cancelled) and Laura are now gone. Dexter and Leah are in. Strange there was only one name retired from 2020, considering how crazy it was (I'm not counting the Greeks). As I expected, Lorenzo becomes the second Category 5 hurricane since current lists began to escape retirement. And as said, there's now a seventh list to be used in place of the Greek alphabet, also in the Eastern Pacific. They should have stitched all six lists together and used them without regard to the year like they do in the Western Pacific.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #765 on: March 18, 2021, 08:00:13 PM »

Dorian from 2019 (thus should have been retired last year, but the meeting was cancelled) and Laura are now gone. Dexter and Leah are in. Strange there was only one name retired from 2020, considering how crazy it was (I'm not counting the Greeks). As I expected, Lorenzo becomes the second Category 5 hurricane since current lists began to escape retirement. And as said, there's now a seventh list to be used in place of the Greek alphabet, also in the Eastern Pacific. They should have stitched all six lists together and used them without regard to the year like they do in the Western Pacific.
Strangely enough, the only Greek names that were actually retired officially were Eta and Iota. I think Delta and Zeta both had a compelling case for retirement. Sally, too.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #766 on: March 18, 2021, 11:46:42 PM »

The Greek alphabet names won't be used anymore. A second list of names will be used instead if the first 21 are used.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

Quote
Names beginning with Q, U, X, Y and Z are still not common enough or easily understood in local languages to be slotted into the rotating lists.

Yet the new Pacific supplemental lists include X, Y, Z storm names...   :hmm:

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #767 on: March 19, 2021, 12:03:18 AM »

The Greek alphabet names won't be used anymore. A second list of names will be used instead if the first 21 are used.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

Quote
Names beginning with Q, U, X, Y and Z are still not common enough or easily understood in local languages to be slotted into the rotating lists.

Yet the new Pacific supplemental lists include X, Y, Z storm names...   :hmm:
Maybe it's another way of saying Americans are dumb  :D
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Scott5114

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #768 on: March 19, 2021, 12:20:15 AM »

Two of the names on that list are Xinia and Yariel, which are certainly not common in the United States. I have never heard them before.

A hurricane name needs to be something that is common enough in the places it might hit that people will be able to recognize it and easily pronounce it. I would say that it's somewhat important that it is not so novel or difficult to pronounce or spell that it distracts from the storm itself. I remember when Isaias was active, half the time there was a crack about how it was impossible to pronounce attached to it somewhere.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #769 on: April 12, 2021, 03:04:30 PM »

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season outlook by Colorado State University has come out:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-04-08-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook-april

They are predicting 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. With that in mind, here are my predictions for the season:

Upper Texas coast will probably get at least a Category 2 hurricane landfall. A major hurricane has not made landfall on the upper Texas coast since hurricane Alicia made landfall in 1983 (Ike was just a Cat 2, Harvey's winds struck the lower Texas coast and Rita and Laura made landfall in LA). Considering the return period for major hurricanes is about 30 years, we are due.

Mexico and Florida will probably also see hurricane landfalls.

I predict 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes in total.
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WillWeaverRVA

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #770 on: April 13, 2021, 09:20:50 AM »

Model guidance suggests a very intense typhoon could get painfully close to the Philippines late this weekend. Last year was quite destructive there, so this isn't something they need right now.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #771 on: April 17, 2021, 05:47:24 PM »

Last year there was only one category 5-equivalent super typhoon (and it came pretty late in the year, at the end of October). Now it's only mid-April and we already have one, with a newcoming North Korean name (of all things), Surigae (known as Bising in the nearby Philippines). For some reason I really like to track Western Pacific storms with a name contributed to the lists by North Korea :sombrero:.
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