Stagnation: cities that could become the next Detroit

[TravelingBethelite]

Hartford could certainly be on the list.  City almost bankrupt, property taxes high, companies (and their workers) moving out because of high cost to do business in the state meaning much of the property is abandoned, too much spending (took a year and a half to build a new ballpark), and much of the city's population is on the dole from the system.  The city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.

Sounds like the state as a whole.

On a more on-topic note, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre seem to be decaying, as does a lot of the rest of Pennsylvania post-coal boom.

[GaryV]

Also, strong labor unions are more effective in preventing such a decline.

Umm, Detroit had one of the strongest unions on the planet.

[jmd41280]

Parts of the Monongahela Valley south of Pittsburgh seem to be fitting the bill these days.  Many of these towns and cities (ie McKeesport, Braddock, Homestead, Rankin, Duquesne, Clairton, Donora, Monessen) were centered around the steel industry.  When the mills shut down in the 1980s, these cities started to decline because all their eggs were in one basket, so to speak.  The populations of these cities significantly declined as a result and continue to decline to the present day. 

Here are their declines from their peak populations to the 2010 census...
   
McKeesport - 55,355 in 1940-> 19,731 in 2010
Braddock - 20,879 in 1920 -> 2,159 in 2010
Homestead - 20,452 in 1920 -> 3,165 in 2010
Rankin - 7,956 in 1930 -> 2,122 in 2010
Duquesne - 21,396 in 1930 -> 5,565 in 2010
Clairton -> 19,652 in 1950 -> 6,796 in 2010
Donora -> 14,131 in 1920 -> 4,781 in 2010
Monessen -> 20,268 in 1930 -> 7,720 in 2010

[JJBers]

Hartford could certainly be on the list.  City almost bankrupt, property taxes high, companies (and their workers) moving out because of high cost to do business in the state meaning much of the property is abandoned, too much spending (took a year and a half to build a new ballpark), and much of the city's population is on the dole from the system.  The city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city.

Not only has it dropped 50,000 in 50 years too.
My dad says the baseball stadium was the final nail in the coffin in the city. Now how are they gonna handle I-84 being re-done

[The Nature Boy]

I surprisingly know a few people in Hartford, all of whom moved there after college. I went to college in New England though so that's not terribly surprising.

[Desert Man]

Hartford could certainly be on the list.  City almost bankrupt, property taxes high, companies (and their workers) moving out because of high cost to do business in the state meaning much of the property is abandoned, too much spending (took a year and a half to build a new ballpark), and much of the city's population is on the dole from the system.  The city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city. 

Hartford has a downtown full of finance and insurance companies offices, as well once boosted a major league sports team: the Hartford (formerly New England) Whalers of the NHL until the 1990s, and their arena the Hartford Civic center is gone. Ironically, CT like NJ is known for upper-income, affluent suburbs facing lower-income, vacated ghettos.

[golden eagle]

Flint, MI, had a population of nearly 200K in 1960. Today, they're estimated to be below 100K. Nearby Saginaw is suffering the same fate, going from nearly 100K in 1960 to below 50K. Unless someone knows something I don't, I don't see those two cities reviving anytime soon.

[JKRhodes]

Sierra Vista, Arizona has seen a steady decline in population since 2012, as has Farmington, New Mexico. Both have some 40k residents.

[SectorZ]

Phoenix AZ. Maybe not for 50 years, but at some point the lack of natural water down there is going to hit an extreme point. Plus, there is nothing down there that keeps the city afloat in some unique way (like oil, steel, auto, etc), so no industry is keeping people there. Unlike people fleeing Detroit due to industry leaving, Phoenix could be the first involved with people having to leave because there is not enough resources to support the population. Las Vegas is in a similar boat, however, they have a reason to draw people there.

The upper midwest, with the Great Lakes, could support a population well above what it has now. Per something I read a few years back, Michigan has enough water for 100 million people. The irony is in how many people have fled that area.

[tribar]

Phoenix AZ. Maybe not for 50 years, but at some point the lack of natural water down there is going to hit an extreme point. Plus, there is nothing down there that keeps the city afloat in some unique way (like oil, steel, auto, etc), so no industry is keeping people there. Unlike people fleeing Detroit due to industry leaving, Phoenix could be the first involved with people having to leave because there is not enough resources to support the population. Las Vegas is in a similar boat, however, they have a reason to draw people there.

The upper midwest, with the Great Lakes, could support a population well above what it has now. Per something I read a few years back, Michigan has enough water for 100 million people. The irony is in how many people have fled that area.

Is it lead-free water though?

[JJBers]

Phoenix AZ. Maybe not for 50 years, but at some point the lack of natural water down there is going to hit an extreme point. Plus, there is nothing down there that keeps the city afloat in some unique way (like oil, steel, auto, etc), so no industry is keeping people there. Unlike people fleeing Detroit due to industry leaving, Phoenix could be the first involved with people having to leave because there is not enough resources to support the population. Las Vegas is in a similar boat, however, they have a reason to draw people there.

The upper midwest, with the Great Lakes, could support a population well above what it has now. Per something I read a few years back, Michigan has enough water for 100 million people. The irony is in how many people have fled that area.

Is it lead-free water though?

I think Lake Superior is lead free

[jp the roadgeek]

Hartford could certainly be on the list.  City almost bankrupt, property taxes high, companies (and their workers) moving out because of high cost to do business in the state meaning much of the property is abandoned, too much spending (took a year and a half to build a new ballpark), and much of the city's population is on the dole from the system.  The city is trying to look for help from surrounding towns, and is hell bent on getting the state to force them to pay for the sins of the city. 

Hartford has a downtown full of finance and insurance companies offices, as well once boosted a major league sports team: the Hartford (formerly New England) Whalers of the NHL until the 1990s, and their arena the Hartford Civic center is gone. Ironically, CT like NJ is known for upper-income, affluent suburbs facing lower-income, vacated ghettos.

The Hartford Civic Center is still there; now known as the XL Center. UConn basketball (and now hockey) play a few home games there, but the AHL's Wolf Pack is last in the AHL in attendance because orphaned Whaler fans see it as an inferior brand of hockey, plus the team is affiliated with the Rangers, whose fans used to invade the arena and make fun of the Whalers and fans for playing in a shopping mall.  Like the city, it's outdated, having been built in 1975 and the last major renovation (other than cosmetic) taking place after the roof collapse in 1978.  The mall once attached to it is now a mixed use office/apartment building.  There were talks of building a new arena, but the price tag in a dying economy is too high.

Another reason Scranton might have seen a small uptick: The Office   

[SP Cook]

Las Vegas is in a similar boat, however, they have a reason to draw people there.

There is an issue with Las Vegas too.  Not that long ago the only (legal) casinos were in Nevada.  Then came Atlantic City, then all the Indians, and then the riverboats, and then just regular casinos in lots of places.   Today 31 states have casinos of one sort or another, NOT counting the majority of the rest that have slot machines and/or keno.  Unless you live in the Atlantic South you are never more than a couple of hours drive from a casino.  There are casinos in plenty of major cites, like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Miami, and soon NYC. 

The only legal advantage Nevada has is a Harry Reid era law that allows sports gambling in Nevada but not elsewhere.  Obviously unconstitutional (imagine a law that said you could grow oranges in Florida, but not California, or harvest timber in Maine but not Michigan) the Supreme Court will take the matter up this fall.  Sports gambling will be legal in every state that wants it by next summer.

Now, Las Vegas has some other things.  It is the "adult Disneyland" (but imagine if there were a casino at actual real Disney World, or in any visitable city's downtown, or at any beach or mountain resort).  It has been developing as a retirement community.  It has some financial and insurance jobs.  But, at the end of the day, it remains "a city whose only industry is people bad at math".  Losing that uniqueness more and more every day. 

[Duke87]

Las Vegas still has its reputation as "the" place for not just gambling but all the other associated vices as well. So long as the idea persists that "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" and people don't start applying THAT logic elsewhere, Las Vegas will remain a destination.

A better example of a city threatened by the proliferation of legalized gambling is Atlantic City, NJ. Of course, like some other cities mentioned, it has already seen decline in the past. Atlantic City came to be as a summer getaway destination because it was the easiest place on the coast to get to from Philadelphia. But then the advent of air conditioning reduced the demand for summer getaways centered around escaping the heat, and the proliferation of planes and automobiles made it easier for people from Philadelphia to start vacationing other places further away. With the reason for its existence eroding away, Atlantic City fell apart. Then the state attempted to revive it by legalizing gambling there and trying to turn it into the Las Vegas of the east coast. This produced some positive results, but it never was able to really revive the whole city - outside of the casino/resort area, the rest of town is still a scuzzy ghetto.

Meanwhile Atlantic City was never able to build the reputation Las Vegas has, and both NYC and Philadelphia now have other casinos closer to them - once again, eroding its reason for existence. So it's on the decline again.

[jwolfer]

Las Vegas still has its reputation as "the" place for not just gambling but all the other associated vices as well. So long as the idea persists that "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" and people don't start applying THAT logic elsewhere, Las Vegas will remain a destination.

A better example of a city threatened by the proliferation of legalized gambling is Atlantic City, NJ. Of course, like some other cities mentioned, it has already seen decline in the past. Atlantic City came to be as a summer getaway destination because it was the easiest place on the coast to get to from Philadelphia. But then the advent of air conditioning reduced the demand for summer getaways centered around escaping the heat, and the proliferation of planes and automobiles made it easier for people from Philadelphia to start vacationing other places further away. With the reason for its existence eroding away, Atlantic City fell apart. Then the state attempted to revive it by legalizing gambling there and trying to turn it into the Las Vegas of the east coast. This produced some positive results, but it never was able to really revive the whole city - outside of the casino/resort area, the rest of town is still a scuzzy ghetto.

Meanwhile Atlantic City was never able to build the reputation Las Vegas has, and both NYC and Philadelphia now have other casinos closer to them - once again, eroding its reason for existence. So it's on the decline again.

A Jersey Shore resort that went the same was as Atlantic City was Asbury Park. It was really nice until the 50s.. It went down. But never had casinos.

Now it has become gentrified.. Like many other areas thanks to 'the gays'... Asbury Park is now a summer resort destination once again.

Jersey City and Bayonne were run down in the 1970s byt now because of proximity to Manhattan they have come back.

Prople thought that there was no hopr for tbose cities.  Sometimes a place rebounds unexpectledly.

With the NJ cities proximity to NYC helps. I think AC may come back but not for a while. It is sort of far from NYC for day trips but if property values go low enoughr it may be a viable alternative to morr expensive shore resort towns

LGMS428

[Desert Man]

Stagflations, recessions and regional depressions can happen, they happened and will happen again. In the 1970s, the Northeastern corridor like NYC (Washington DC was "murder capital" in the late 20th century), the 1980s for Miami, FL (the drug trade and Miami Vice TV show) and 1990s for CA (esp. the LA riots and racial strife between White, Black, Latino and Asian communities) were examples. Now in the 2010s, the Midwest's largest cities like Chicago (high crime), St. Louis, Columbus OH ("Killumbus") and so on (not affecting Cleveland, Indianapolis and Milwaukee as much) as the result of declined local economies, while NYC came back in the 1990s, so did Miami and CA (esp. San Jose, San Francisco, San Diego, and even Los Angeles) when they have better, larger and diversified economies. Gentrification in Oakland, Sacramento, Fresno, Bakersfield, Long Beach and Santa Ana in CA are hot issues, but this trend hasn't happened in Stockton, Modesto, Yuba City/Marysville, San Bernardino, Riverside and El Centro/ Imperial/ Calexico. Where I live, Palm Springs has gotten wealthier - the period between 1970 and 1995 was when the city was less frequented by the rich, famous or elderly. And finally, the year 2000 was when major cities nationwide recovered because of the economic boom at the times - but I hope the Midwest's major cities don't end up dead or vacated by 2020 or 2026, depending on local or national economic conditions in the near future.

[Scott5114]

Now, Las Vegas has some other things.  It is the "adult Disneyland" (but imagine if there were a casino at actual real Disney World, or in any visitable city's downtown, or at any beach or mountain resort).  It has been developing as a retirement community.  It has some financial and insurance jobs.  But, at the end of the day, it remains "a city whose only industry is people bad at math".  Losing that uniqueness more and more every day. 

Yes and no. As someone in the casino industry, Las Vegas still has a lot to work with. For one thing, because Vegas was the only game in town for so long, there's a lot of support companies that keep casinos running headquartered there. If you want to run a casino, you need slot machines, chairs, paper, and replacement parts for the slot machines, poker tables, etc. and all of that is made in Vegas. Everi, one of the largest casino check-cashing and credit card cash advance systems (that also has a slot machine division now that they bought out Multimedia Games), is in Vegas.

Even if you're just a customer, Vegas is still a destination because of the sheer density of casinos and the variety of scenery. If you're losing at one you can walk out and try the one literally right next to it. (Yes, which casino you gamble in scarcely matters, but don't expect gamblers to believe that.) Not to mention that if you're a poker player, Vegas is where all the big games are, and there's lots of games going at all hours of the day and night (whereas in Oklahoma if you walk into a casino at off-peak hours, you're pretty much only guaranteed to find $1-$2 no limit hold'em, maybe $2-$5 if you're lucky–it can be hard finding something even something fairly standard like $3-$6 limit or any pot-limit Omaha, and good luck finding a casino that is willing to spread something exotic like Pineapple or Open-Face Chinese Poker). If you're a good poker player, going to Vegas is even more of a draw because you can sit there and soak up the chips from all the drunk tourists.

You're more likely to see Atlantic City go down than Vegas.

[Desert Man]

The top 10 worst cities in California (#1 is Desert Hot Springs 10 miles north of Palm Springs). Many of them in Imperial county, Riverside county, and San Bernardino area.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0qDHt_9KmM

Not racist, but these places earn a reputation as the "ghetto" - Desert Hot Springs counts as one. And the rural Imperial valley region from my hometown Indio down to Calexico.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d22hvs2OEos

[inkyatari]

That limo is kinda badass.

[Desert Man]

Drive across from L.A. to SF: you find Lots of desolate farm towns on I-5 and farther inland parts of the Central Coast (Santa Paula, Santa Maria, San Miguel, Salinas, Hollister and Watsonville) with large low-income and Latino populations, a byproduct of a history of Mexican/Chicano (or should I say, Hispanic and Central American) farm laborers arrive during the harvest seasons. My wife has family history in Santa Clara valley, around San Mateo and Vallejo, she's of Mexican-American and some Filipino plus Italian ancestry.

My own maternal grandfather of Cherokee/Osage and Scottish ancestry came to Kern co. in the 1930s from Oklahoma outside of Tulsa. He with his family of 8 were sharecroppers displaced by the Dust Bowl during the Great Depression. Until the 1970s, he had family in towns of Arvin, Lamont and Weedpatch south of Bakersfield. I'm familiar with towns Lost Hills, Buttonwillow, Shafter, Wasco, McFarland and Delano...they would qualify as the most "ghetto/barrio or redneck/white trash" cities on Youtube's "top worst CA places list".

[triplemultiplex]

Phoenix and Vegas are out of water.  They are going to experience a dramatic population crash later this century.

[Doctor Whom]

According to a Census estimate, the City of Baltimore has recently lost the third largest number of people in one year of any county or county-equivalent in the United States. The city's population is estimated to be at or near a 100-year low. Baltimore used to get by on political clout and media favor, both of which have evaporated.

[JJBers]

According to a Census estimate, the City of Baltimore has recently lost the third largest number of people in one year of any county or county-equivalent in the United States. The city's population is estimated to be at or near a 100-year low. Baltimore used to get by on political clout and media favor, both of which have evaporated.

Cook County, IL tops the chart....

[Brandon]

According to a Census estimate, the City of Baltimore has recently lost the third largest number of people in one year of any county or county-equivalent in the United States. The city's population is estimated to be at or near a 100-year low. Baltimore used to get by on political clout and media favor, both of which have evaporated.

Cook County, IL tops the chart....

And that's only going to get worse.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/deerfield/news/ct-dfr-soda-sales-cook-county-tl-0831-story.html

[JJBers]

According to a Census estimate, the City of Baltimore has recently lost the third largest number of people in one year of any county or county-equivalent in the United States. The city's population is estimated to be at or near a 100-year low. Baltimore used to get by on political clout and media favor, both of which have evaporated.

Cook County, IL tops the chart....

And that's only going to get worse.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/deerfield/news/ct-dfr-soda-sales-cook-county-tl-0831-story.html

NOT THE SODA POP!