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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 95288 times)

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #450 on: October 02, 2018, 09:52:33 AM »

Walaka is now a Cat 5. The 2nd or 3rd in tue Central Pacific this year and still poised to strengthen.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #451 on: October 02, 2018, 01:47:23 PM »

Just 'a typhoon'? That typhoon has (or had, as it has become extratropical or 'post-tropical' as the NHC likes to say) a name: Trami. However in the Philippines they somehow don't recognize these names and instead use their own scheme, under which Trami was known as Paeng.

We have now reached the end of the Hawaiian list 36 years after it was established with hurricane Walaka. The next name to be used in the so-called Central Pacific is Akoni, which was the inaugural name in 1982.

JMA doesn't use typhoon names for local warnings, just their numbers (in Japan, Trami was just "Typhoon #24" or "Typhoon 1824"). They only started naming them for international warnings in 2000 when they took over that responsibility from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center since the JTWC isn't actually the official RSMC for the basin and the WMO Typhoon Committee decided that only they should assign the international names.

I personally cannot stand PAGASA's policy of naming storms in their "area of responsibility" (because it can be confusing...and honestly I can't stand a lot of things PAGASA does because they don't do a good job of informing people about pretty much anything), but they've done it since 1963, so it's whatever, I guess. PAGASA does recognize the international names, though, and they do use them in their warnings.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #452 on: October 04, 2018, 09:36:25 AM »

Walaka is now a Cat 5. The 2nd or 3rd in tue Central Pacific this year and still poised to strengthen.

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And Kong-Rey at the same time in the WPAC!
1st time 2 systems have been at Category 5 strength at the same time since 1998, when Cyclones Susan and Ron were both Cat 5’s.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #453 on: October 07, 2018, 08:01:55 PM »

Michael has formed, and it is already 2 days ahead of schedule in strength for what the models predicted it would be. Current prediction from NHC at 5 on EDT was a Cat 2 hurricane. I don't think that is enough given the rapid uptick and more favorable environment. Currently I would call for a 125 mph Cat 3.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #454 on: October 07, 2018, 09:39:44 PM »

Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #455 on: October 07, 2018, 09:40:50 PM »

The 2018 EPAC hurricane season is now the 2nd most active on record beating 2015.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #456 on: October 07, 2018, 11:20:31 PM »

Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #457 on: October 07, 2018, 11:32:49 PM »

Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #458 on: October 07, 2018, 11:43:08 PM »

Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #459 on: October 08, 2018, 12:37:07 AM »



Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

Lets add Cat 3s in October or November: Otto (November), Ophelia.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #460 on: October 08, 2018, 12:39:18 AM »

I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.

LG-TP260

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #461 on: October 08, 2018, 12:53:46 AM »

74 mph is the minimum wind speed to be dubbed a hurricane.

The Weather Channel is citing sources saying that Michael will be around 100mph when it makes landfall near Apalachicola, FL.  So that would be a category 2 storm.  They were saying this morning (Sunday) that it would be a category 1, but more recent forecasts are anticipating further strengthening.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #462 on: October 08, 2018, 01:08:40 AM »

I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.

Why do you always hope for the worst?
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #463 on: October 08, 2018, 04:04:33 AM »



I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.

Why do you always hope for the worst?

It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.

Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.

Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).

Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?

LG-TP260

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #464 on: October 08, 2018, 06:36:54 AM »

Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?

Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #465 on: October 08, 2018, 07:10:51 AM »

Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?

Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.

Beltway, I think you're reading into things and then changing the reason for your argument isn't necessary. Yes, hurricanes suck and blow and create havoc, disruption, and loss of life.

(And as a former Floridian, I've been through many more swirly-gigs than that.)
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #466 on: October 08, 2018, 07:28:11 AM »

Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.
Beltway, I think you're reading into things and then changing the reason for your argument isn't necessary. Yes, hurricanes suck and blow and create havoc, disruption, and loss of life.
(And as a former Floridian, I've been through many more swirly-gigs than that.)

That is where I grew up and experienced the two hurricanes.  I was young and there were probably a few tropical storms that I was not aware of.  The three tropical storms above were in Virginia and we are very much in the path of potential damage from these storms.  That tally doesn't include severe flooding in Richmond and Alexandria caused by tropical storm remnants in the western part of the state.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #467 on: October 08, 2018, 07:44:17 AM »



Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.

Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #468 on: October 08, 2018, 08:02:47 AM »

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.
What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.
Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.

I think that he was technically referring to the fact that it was no longer a tropical storm, that as it moved north that it had transitioned to being an extra tropical cyclone.  That is true and they get their heat from substantially different processes, however the effect on the ground is about the same for either -- bad.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #469 on: October 08, 2018, 08:16:03 AM »



Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.

Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Sandy made landfall as an extratropical system.
Billions of damage have little to do with the structure of the storm and more to the trend of building into risky areas, as far as I understand.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #470 on: October 08, 2018, 11:58:40 AM »





Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.

Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Sandy made landfall as an extratropical system.
Billions of damage have little to do with the structure of the storm and more to the trend of building into risky areas, as far as I understand.

I may have misinfered about what was being said here, I thought it was about the strength of the storm, not the damage. If it is damage, than of course Sandy would be the king in this month.

 About the tropical/extratropical landfall: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al18/al182012.update.10292255.shtml?  That is my source. You are right though about the 80 mph winds at landfall.

LG-TP260

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #471 on: October 08, 2018, 01:18:34 PM »

Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?

Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.




Considering I'm studying this subject in college, you could say I like this, but that being said, as I have explained, I am only making predictions here. Yes I tend to go aggressive when rapid intensification chances exist, and Isaac admittingly I went way too agressive on. I did not say you all deserve this, that I enjoy watching damage happen, or that it is an abstract subject. In fact I believe the opposite.


This has come across as a personal attack to me. While I did not report to the moderators this time, I will if this continues to escalate. I don't mind you disagreeing with anything I say, but saying that it is an abstract subject came across as saying that I wish for the most extreme storm possible to deal as much damage as possible and take as many lives as possible.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #472 on: October 08, 2018, 01:24:53 PM »



Michael forms in the Carribean. Already a 60 mph tropical storm. Forecast calls for 100 mph peak, which seems extremely low.

Seems rather high for this time of the year.

Uhh, there have been a lot of strong October hurricanes. Just in the past 5 years, we've had Matthew, Nicole, Joaquin, and Gonzalo all reach category 4 or greater status in October.

And of course, Sandy in 2012.

Sandy was barely a Cat 3 before its Cuba landfall, and didn't even make landfall as a tropical system in the US.

What the hell are you talking about? Sandy made landfall in NJ with 80 mph winds. Even if you want to dispute that, it still made landfall as a very strong tropical storm, and caused nearly $70 Billion in damage, mostly in the NJ/NY region.

Didn't make landfall as a tropical system my ass. I'd like to know where you got your info about that.
Sandy wasn’t even tropical anymore when it made landfall.

And Yes, Sandy formed in the carribean and made landfall on not only Cuba and the US, but Jamaica as well.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #473 on: October 08, 2018, 03:55:53 PM »

Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?
Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.
Considering I'm studying this subject in college, you could say I like this, but that being said, as I have explained, I am only making predictions here. Yes I tend to go aggressive when rapid intensification chances exist, and Isaac admittingly I went way too agressive on. I did not say you all deserve this, that I enjoy watching damage happen, or that it is an abstract subject. In fact I believe the opposite.
This has come across as a personal attack to me. While I did not report to the moderators this time, I will if this continues to escalate. I don't mind you disagreeing with anything I say, but saying that it is an abstract subject came across as saying that I wish for the most extreme storm possible to deal as much damage as possible and take as many lives as possible.

There was no personal attack meant or tendered.  Let's just say that it is a sensitive subject given the number of such storms that I have suffered thru, including severe after effects of others that didn't come thru my area.  I forgot to mention Gaston of 2004, almost no winds when it got here but dumped catastrophic amounts of rain that caused severe flooding.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #474 on: October 08, 2018, 04:52:23 PM »

Why do you always hope for the worst?
It's not that I hope for the worst, in fact I did mention that Florence would weaken before landfall to a Cat 2 (ended up being a cat 1), despite . Models have not been super great with strength and don't often underestimate rapid intensification rates. The environment in about 36 hours to landfall appears to be conductive for rapid intensification according to forcasts.
Harvey was only predicted to be a cat 1 at landfall 3 days before and it ended up being a Cat 4, and the environment has similarities to each other.
Katrina was another example as NHC had it as a Cat 2 (I could be wrong here because I only looked at the graphic) (but it did weaken after peaking).
Shall I continue the list more that happened like I'm predicting?
Your profile says you live in Oregon and are 18 years old.  You can safely be excited about the subject of hurricanes.  I live in the area where we are looking down the barrel of these things.  I have personally lived thru two hurricanes and three tropical storms.  They are not an abstract subject.
Considering I'm studying this subject in college, you could say I like this, but that being said, as I have explained, I am only making predictions here. Yes I tend to go aggressive when rapid intensification chances exist, and Isaac admittingly I went way too agressive on. I did not say you all deserve this, that I enjoy watching damage happen, or that it is an abstract subject. In fact I believe the opposite.
This has come across as a personal attack to me. While I did not report to the moderators this time, I will if this continues to escalate. I don't mind you disagreeing with anything I say, but saying that it is an abstract subject came across as saying that I wish for the most extreme storm possible to deal as much damage as possible and take as many lives as possible.

There was no personal attack meant or tendered.  Let's just say that it is a sensitive subject given the number of such storms that I have suffered thru, including severe after effects of others that didn't come thru my area.  I forgot to mention Gaston of 2004, almost no winds when it got here but dumped catastrophic amounts of rain that caused severe flooding.
Thank you for clarifying. To all who have had to deal with sever weatjer events, I'm sorry you've had to go through with that experience.

Keep Michael victims and future victims in your prayers (if you are religious).

LG-TP260

Logged
ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

 


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