What's your weather currently?

[jakeroot]

FWIW. (Warning: contains some relevant content, but also some political discussion).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/

That's a brilliant article. Thank you for sharing.

[Rothman]

Doesn't change the fact that meteorologists' best guesses are still wrong an unacceptable amount of the time

The thing is, I don't believe this is true. I have yet to see evidence in support of this idea.

^this, please show data

They couldn't get it right for 13 days while I was on vacation, like I said.
Predictions of snowfall in my area are also pretty lousy.

FWIW. (Warning: contains some relevant content, but also some political discussion).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/

Pfft.  Nate Silver has been doing damage control ever since he totally botched the election coverage.  538 itself blared its 95+% probability that Clinton would win right up front on its page.  There was no tempering for standard errors and the like in its presentation of the polling data. And now he takes the pious stance that the media doesn't interpret data correctly?  What a hypocrite.

[MNHighwayMan]

538 itself blared its 95+% probability that Clinton would win right up front on its page.

Are you for real? If you'd even bothered to read the article, you'd have been reminded that they only estimated a 70 percent chance of her victory. I also remember that FiveThirtyEight was the most uncertain of all the estimates that day.

And yes, the media does a shit job putting out statistics. The misinterpretations, and frankly, stupidity, I see here wrt weather are proof enough of that.

[webny99]

FWIW. (Warning: contains some relevant content, but also some political discussion).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/

That's a brilliant article. Thank you for sharing.

Just my opinion, but I think the whole site is brilliant. I spend almost as much time there as I do here!

Pfft.  Nate Silver has been doing damage control ever since he totally botched the election coverage.  538 itself blared its 95+% probability that Clinton would win right up front on its page.  There was no tempering for standard errors and the like in its presentation of the polling data. And now he takes the pious stance that the media doesn't interpret data correctly?  What a hypocrite.

Wait a second. You must be thinking of someone else. They certainly did not blare Clinton's 95% chances on their front page. They gave Clinton approximately a 70% chance, Trump a 30% chance, on election day. Which is actually the whole point of the probability discussion. Sure, they were wrong, but they were less wrong than everyone else precisely because their model accounted for standard errors, takes into account that errors in one state may mean similar errors in similar states, etc., so they were a lot less confident in Clinton than everyone else. They had even written that there was a higher-than-normal chance of an EC/PV split in Trump's favor - which is exactly what happened - and identified that Clinton had several EC weaknesses. Both narratives that the media ignored completely.

Obviously, it was a super close election, and everyone got it wrong, for the most part. But I think 538 did a really good job not only covering the election themselves, but also identifying what some of the big flaws in media coverage were when all the indicators pointed to a close race.

[Rothman]

You're drinking the Nate Silver Kool-Aid.  He blew it big time and there was a mathematical crap stat they definitely came up with that had a 90%+ chance of a Clinton victory.  Their usual poll aggregation may have shown 70%, but they were crowing about a Clinton victory all along.  He's just as guilty as the rest.

[webny99]

You're drinking the Nate Silver Kool-Aid.  He blew it big time and there was a mathematical crap stat they definitely came up with that had a 90%+ chance of a Clinton victory.  Their usual poll aggregation may have shown 70%, but they were crowing about a Clinton victory all along.  He's just as guilty as the rest.

Now we're right back where we started: [citation needed] regarding the 90-95% stuff. I have never heard such a thing.

Of course they were expecting and talking about a Clinton victory; so was everyone else, and not just the media. But it is to Nate's credit that he built a polls-based model that said 70%-30%, when all the major news outlets said 90%-10% and were covering the election as if Clinton had already won.

[Max Rockatansky]

101F high today in Fresno.  It was 75F when I got up at 4:30 AM this morning.  I must have acclimated since my run was pretty easy in regards to staying hydrated. Planned for 10 miles but went 13.2.  Supposed the high is 106F tomorrow. 

[ozarkman417]

Today was a good day to run in Springfield, around eighty degrees. It looks like I am going to get hit by a few severe thunderstorms tonight.

SM-G965U

[wxfree]

Today, heat index of 111.  Tomorrow, cloudy with a chance of rain and a high of 89.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VI6dsMeABpU

[Roadgeekteen]

some rain

[Roadgeekteen]

Around 80 and sunny

[Mark68]

We set an all-time September record for Denver yesterday (2nd record in a row) of 100.

It's much cooler today, currently partly cloudy and 81.

[Roadgeekteen]

Clouds and rain

[MNHighwayMan]

spam

[ET21]

Had a brief tornado touch down only 25 mins north of me. Became a pretty nice waterspout for a bit just offshore of Waukegan

[D-Dey65]

Mostly cloudy with a bit of a breeze. I expect some rain today.

[US 89]

Despite the proximity of Hurricane Dorian, it is hot and dry here in Atlanta and is expected to stay that way for the next week or more, with highs in the mid 90s and lows around 70. Dewpoints are in the mid-60s, so it isn't unbearably muggy but certainly isn't a dry heat.

Strangely enough, some portions of central Georgia are under a high fire danger alert this afternoon due to Dorian. It looks like some winds will be affecting the area, but little to no rain is expected away from the coastal areas.

[Roadgeekteen]

70s and sunny

[tolbs17]

It's windy and raining that we ate getting from Hurricane Dorian!

[hotdogPi]

It's windy and raining that we ate getting from Hurricane Dorian!

Eating the hurricane won't make it go away.

[tolbs17]

It's windy and raining that we ate getting from Hurricane Dorian!

Eating the hurricane won't make it go away.

Are*

[Mark68]

It's windy and raining that we ate getting from Hurricane Dorian!

Eating the hurricane won't make it go away.

You could try nuking it. 

[ozarkman417]

Labor day weekend was cool, but for the next week it's going to be really hot and humid. Humidity has a big effect when running, for instance I ran a 10k at the same pace of a 5k because of the change in weather.

[roadman]

It's windy and raining that we ate getting from Hurricane Dorian!

Eating the hurricane won't make it go away.

You could try nuking it. 

But a storm that large won't fit in my microwave oven.

[Roadgeekteen]

Much chillier today, didn't hit 70.