AARoads Forum

The recent Hurricane Irma events in Florida (IMHO) exposed a real problem in evacuation capacity.

While I-95 seemed to flow fairly well except for some issues in the Daytona construction zone, I-75 and the Florida Tollroad definitely had to bear the brunt of evacuation traffic out of Florida. All heading north to Atlanta. With the Tollroad taking on both Miami and Orlando evac traffic, the problem becomes chronic when the Tollroad merges with traffic on I-75 out of Tampa.

This wouldn't be a big deal except, Atlanta is where Savannah traffic on I-16 tends to head during the same kind of evacuations.

Stories of mega mile back ups for gas between Lake City FL and Macon, GA are becoming common who have come back.  People who left at 4AM thinking they would reach Atlanta by the afternoon, were surprised when they spent 13 hours in their car backed up in traffic.

It seems clear that one of 2 things are an issue here.  Inadequate existing route capacity (meaning not enough lane-miles) to support the peak requirement, or inadequate route education for drivers leaving their evac zone.

How does one plan and resolve it?

Adding lanes between Ocala (where the Tollway and I-75 merge) all the way to Macon is an idea, except they are already 3 lanes for most of the route, adding a 4th lane for so many route miles would be expensive and little used except for high speed passers.  One suggestion was to make the 4th lane an eco/express lane or tolled express until an evac is declared and open it up for the additional traffic.

Should it be added to I-95 between Daytona to Jacksonville, and again from Jacksonville to north of Walterboro to I-26?

Also, has anyone ever seen maps dedicated to evacuation routes (other than the signs on the interstates?)  I wonder if a numbering system could be established where a route can be assigned to a evac zone?  2 lane, 4 lane, 6 lane route, you travel by the route you are assigned? Workable? Probably as much as the system to water your grass probably.

Build additional routes?

For awhile I have been an advocate for a Florida N-S route that doesn't rely on Atlanta so much.  One idea I had posted on earlier is a controlled access route from Marietta, Florida to Montgomery, AL to connect I-10 with the new I-85 south bypass.  But that route wouldn't be very usable for the typical south Florida evacuee, still gotta use I-75/Tollway tandem just to get there.

FDOT has been extending the routes north of Tampa, mostly for commuters, but long term would have to traverse around Dunnellon and up through the boonies at Perry and on to Tallahassee. Problem is there is very little traffic north of Hillsborough County all the other days of the year.

FDOT has been slowly upgrading US-231 north out of Panama City to reach I-10, but without a clear route north to Montgomery, that puts a lot of people in Troy and Dothan. Lots of stop lights, especially in Dothan.

I will be curious to see how FDOT responds to the lessons learned from this recent set of events with their future highway plans.

Quote from: edwaleni on September 18, 2017, 10:19:24 PMthe Florida Tollroad

Turnpike.

QuoteStories of mega mile back ups for gas between Lake City FL and Macon, GA are becoming common who have come back.  People who left at 4AM thinking they would reach Atlanta by the afternoon, were surprised when they spent 13 hours in their car backed up in traffic.

It seems clear that one of 2 things are an issue here.  Inadequate existing route capacity (meaning not enough lane-miles) to support the peak requirement, or inadequate route education for drivers leaving their evac zone.

Primarily the latter. People need to stop thinking the Interestate is the Only Road. There were plenty of routes, but everyone lemming-trained onto I-75.

QuoteAdding lanes between Ocala (where the Tollway and I-75 merge) all the way to Macon is an idea, except they are already 3 lanes for most of the route, adding a 4th lane for so many route miles would be expensive and little used except for high speed passers.  One suggestion was to make the 4th lane an eco/express lane or tolled express until an evac is declared and open it up for the additional traffic.

This is, for want of a better term, hilariously unnecessary. Aside from merging traffic at the Turnpike at Wildwood, there is no significant congestion under normal circumstances north of Tampa. Nobody would use tolled lanes, and the cost of enforcing them would exceed the absolute pittance in revenue.

QuoteShould it be added to I-95 between Daytona to Jacksonville, and again from Jacksonville to north of Walterboro to I-26?

I-95 from Daytona to Jacksonville does require additonal, standard lanes. The last time I drove through there (at dusk, northbound, a few months ago) I literally had to pull over into a rest area at one point to reduce my heart rate due to the traffic and the maniacs driving in it.

QuoteFor awhile I have been an advocate for a Florida N-S route that doesn't rely on Atlanta so much.  One idea I had posted on earlier is a controlled access route from Marietta, Florida to Montgomery, AL to connect I-10 with the new I-85 south bypass.  But that route wouldn't be very usable for the typical south Florida evacuee, still gotta use I-75/Tollway tandem just to get there.

I assume you mean Marianna, Florida, not Marietta, as the latter is a neighborhood of Jacksonville where I-295 and I-10 meet. This would be a much inferior routing to 231 mentioned below...

QuoteFDOT has been extending the routes north of Tampa, mostly for commuters, but long term would have to traverse around Dunnellon and up through the boonies at Perry and on to Tallahassee. Problem is there is very little traffic north of Hillsborough County all the other days of the year.

I think the Suncoast Parkway extension to US-19/98 north of Crystal River is still on the books but the NIMBY/Sierra Club types hate it. Extension of the Turnpike to US-19/98 in the Goethe State Forest gets mooted semi-regularly but is hated even more. 19/98 through Levy, Dixie and Taylor Counties does not require additional capacity as it's four lanes/65mph the whole way outside of towns and there are times you can be on a stretch of road with nobody visible in front of you or behind.

QuoteFDOT has been slowly upgrading US-231 north out of Panama City to reach I-10, but without a clear route north to Montgomery, that puts a lot of people in Troy and Dothan. Lots of stop lights, especially in Dothan.

Just before the 2008 economic crash there was an approved project to build a tollway from Panama City to Dothan; one presumes Alabama would then have considered some sort of Dothan-Montgomery freeway project. But regardless of that the recession killed the Panama City-Dothan route stone dead, even though it is still greatly needed (and would, as mentioned above, be the much preferred routing to anything near Marianna).

QuoteI will be curious to see how FDOT responds to the lessons learned from this recent set of events with their future highway plans.

"We need more money."
"Sorry, you can't have more money."
And then nothing gets done.

In South Carolina they try to get people to evacuate by a certain roadway depending on their starting point so that everyone isn't trying to take I-26.

Florida is a little different when hurricanes do what Irma did...how to evacuate millions of people...

I heard it a little bit with Irma where some Florida officials were trying to get people to evacuate locally instead of trying to leave the state.  This is a better overall strategy IMO, as it lowers the risk of people getting in accidents, being caught out in the storm, etc.  Spend $ on building hurricane-proof shelters that are inland enough to avoid storm surge problems.  Disguise them as high school gyms so they get some use when it is not hurricane season.  This is a better use of $ then building tons of capacity that might be needed twice in a month and then not again for a decade.

Quote from: Mapmikey on September 19, 2017, 06:19:23 AM
In South Carolina they try to get people to evacuate by a certain roadway depending on their starting point so that everyone isn't trying to take I-26.

Florida is a little different when hurricanes do what Irma did...how to evacuate millions of people...

I heard it a little bit with Irma where some Florida officials were trying to get people to evacuate locally instead of trying to leave the state.  This is a better overall strategy IMO, as it lowers the risk of people getting in accidents, being caught out in the storm, etc.  Spend $ on building hurricane-proof shelters that are inland enough to avoid storm surge problems.  Disguise them as high school gyms so they get some use when it is not hurricane season.  This is a better use of $ then building tons of capacity that might be needed twice in a month and then not again for a decade.

The evacuation zone is a relatively small area, mostly low lying areas prone to flooding, the coast within the distance of the storm surge, and mobile homes. The Florida building code, for basically the last 20 years but at least the last 10, basically makes everything outside of those good enough to be a hurricane shelter. Outside of these areas, the damage is generally restricted to trees and the associated power lines.

The big problem with this storm was twofold: 1) Its been VERY quiet for basically a decade, with only a single minor storm and no major storms, so people didn't remember how bad (or not) the previous ones back in 2004 were. It also was a particularly slow moving one with a difficult to predict route, compounding the problem. 2) The media hype machine is working better then ever to scare people, and the governor wanting to play into that as well for political reasons (Rick Scott clearly wanted to make sure nothing like Katrina could be blamed on him).

If you ask most people what was the worst thing about the storm, the answer will overwhelmingly be the lack of power. The evacuation issues won't even be brought up, and if you ask many who evacuated why they did, they didn't want to risk being without power for 2 weeks like a decade ago. Floridians werent running from the storm, they're running from the lack of power. There definitely is more of a sentiment that people want power lines buried to better protect them rather then roads expanded. And most don't want to pay for that either, so we're unlikely to see to many changes (new communities already typically bury their lines)

Also, they felt the traffic never got so bad to necessitate using the contraflow system in place... perhaps partly because at the end of the contraflow area they felt the roads wouldn't be able to handle the traffic. They gave a bit of an excuse of they wanted supply trucks and emergency vehicles to go the other way, but they could have allowed that restricted to one lane.

Quote from: UCFKnights on September 19, 2017, 08:55:27 AM

Quote from: Mapmikey on September 19, 2017, 06:19:23 AM
I heard it a little bit with Irma where some Florida officials were trying to get people to evacuate locally instead of trying to leave the state.  This is a better overall strategy IMO, as it lowers the risk of people getting in accidents, being caught out in the storm, etc.  Spend $ on building hurricane-proof shelters that are inland enough to avoid storm surge problems.  Disguise them as high school gyms so they get some use when it is not hurricane season.  This is a better use of $ then building tons of capacity that might be needed twice in a month and then not again for a decade.

The evacuation zone is a relatively small area, mostly low lying areas prone to flooding, the coast within the distance of the storm surge, and mobile homes. The Florida building code, for basically the last 20 years but at least the last 10, basically makes everything outside of those good enough to be a hurricane shelter. Outside of these areas, the damage is generally restricted to trees and the associated power lines.

Our son lives in Apollo Beach, in a three-year old home that included storm shutters (stored in the garage) as part of the purchase price. The development is on "high" ground, well above anything but an extraordinary storm surge. They were in a class/grade/status 3 evacuation area, that would have them evacuate locally if needed. They opted to shelter in place instead of heading north, reasoning that it was better to be in a sturdy house than in a vehicle on the open road when the storm hit.

We flew into Orlando last Tuesday after a trip abroad and it was apparent the airport took on lots of water (musty smell and lots of fans everywhere, along with worker bees doing more than just the renovation work that was underway in some areas). On the trip over to Apollo Beach, and on the trip back to Virginia that Thursday, what damage that was visible consisted of random trees blown down along the highways. Just outside Ocala there was a large tree that had taken down power lines, but beyond that we didn't really see devastation. We have a friend who lives near Naples and she didn't fare as well. She had roof damage and her house took on water. I don't know if she has power yet.

Quote
Also, they felt the traffic never got so bad to necessitate using the contraflow system in place... perhaps partly because at the end of the contraflow area they felt the roads wouldn't be able to handle the traffic. They gave a bit of an excuse of they wanted supply trucks and emergency vehicles to go the other way, but they could have allowed that restricted to one lane.

On the Thursday trip, both I-75 and I-95 were full of utility trucks, tree service trucks, emergency fuel tankers, and flatbeds with generators and light towers headed south.

Bruce in Blacksburg

It is rare for a hurricane to hit any point anywhere.  It's extremely rare for a large Cat 5 hurricane to come riding up thru the state of Florida.  It's almost unheard of for a hurricane to come up thru Florida, exit state right, then go up the coast, causing both areas to evacuate.

As was ultimately the case in this hurricane, it got to Florida and veered northwest, so the coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina didn't have to evacuate anyway.

Traffic Engineers, when they decide to build roads, look at (among other things) peak traffic periods, mostly during weekday rush hours.  Exceptions are made for seasonal traffic demands.  For periodic events, such as large gatherings like football games and such, they can configure the road to allow contraflow traffic.  For hurricane evacuations, they do the same thing, which is why highways have crossovers and contra-flow measures built in.

As was the case here, everyone who wanted to leave got out, and with plenty of time to spare.  You're not going to design a road that'll permit 70 mph when the entire state is told to evacuate.  Just like you can't build enough gas stations for the once-every-decade chance that millions of cars will need gas at one time.

Lessons learned?  That early evacuation is best.  And it worked well here.  They'll make minor tweaks...they're not going to build new roads.

The problem is, though, that with climate change and the warming of the oceans causing more and stronger tropical systems, chances are much more likely that we will be seeing the "1,000 year storm" every 3 or 4 years, and possibly even more than one in one year *alone*.

The worst case scenario for Florida would be a major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane moving WNW through the Florida Straits, raking the Florida Keys and the Miami area with hurricane force gusts and storm surges, then turning NW to NNW just along the west FL coast while remaining in the Gulf of Mexico, sliding parallel to the coast until just north of Tampa Bay, then suddenly turning NE to ENE and running through the heart of the Florida Peninsula only to reemerge in the Atlantic side near Daytona Beach or Jacksonville. Between the wind, the surge, the heavy rain, and the tornado threats, it would not be a good deal for Florida at all.

Early evacuation is certainly a good thing...but what happens if you have to practice it twice within 3-4 weeks?

I think that a point missing in this discussion is that Florida's highways generally are not keeping up with the state's population growth. As noted above, the money is just not there.

I would think that an additional lane on I-75 northbound out of Wildwood for some extended length (maybe 10 miles) might ease that bottleneck without overbuilding.

Did Georgia ever finish 3-laning all of I-75?

It would seem that the major glaring needs in Florida are:

- A diagonal from SW Florida to C Florida (say Fort Myers - Kissimmee) Issues would be land values in the north and enviro stuff in the south)

- A diagonal from I-75 near Gainesville to I-10 near Jacksonville (US 301). 

- Increased capacity on existing routes, especially the FT-75 junction area.

- A N-S route between 65 and 75 (say Panama City to Auburn).

But at the end of the day, the key here is better building codes and smart prepping (generations, food supplies, etc. ) and the understanding that, just like living on an island, life in S Florida means a hurricane will come through every now and then (notice how "climate change" gets blamed, even though hurricanes have existed for centuries and we just went through the longest lull in major storms in over a century) you will have to live out a hurricane in place. 

Contraflow as in most of the rest of the Southeast from Texas to North Carolina might help.

Quote from: Brandon on September 19, 2017, 05:04:57 PM
Contraflow as in most of the rest of the Southeast from Texas to North Carolina might help.

As I mentioned in another thread, Florida used to do contraflow (and the Interstates are signed for it) but I understand they have specifically opted to remove contraflow from the box of tools, with "shoulder lanes" being the chosen solution instead.

Quote from: Anthony_JK on September 19, 2017, 10:25:53 AM
The problem is, though, that with climate change and the warming of the oceans causing more and stronger tropical systems, chances are much more likely that we will be seeing the "1,000 year storm" every 3 or 4 years, and possibly even more than one in one year *alone*.

See, thats the thing about statistics. They don't quite work like that. We just came off of a several year drought of storms, with another drought right before that. We've been having mostly very quiet seasons for over 10 years, quite to the contrary of the climate predictions. Just because we have an extra active season doesn't negate the previous 4 years of data. Actually, it should remind us that this is how it typically works. Some years, the earth's climate is better then others for storm formation, with different temperatures of water, different El Nino, etc. When conditions are ripe, like this year, they're ripe, and you get lots of big powerful storms. When they aren't, like the last several years, you get inactive seasons. The seasons are never really average, they're either active, or they're not so active. So when the average is 2.3 major hurricanes per year, you can expect several years with 1, and some years with 5. We're 4 years removed from the season with the least amount of hurricanes in 80 years.

QuoteEarly evacuation is certainly a good thing...but what happens if you have to practice it twice within 3-4 weeks?

Thats probably why it makes more sense to encourage less evacuations and more sheltering in the area the storm is hit. If you're gonna get hit with a storm twice in a year, it in all likelihood will be within 3-4 weeks... Quite honestly, I've lived in Florida most of my life, and I can't remember when we've encouraged so many people to evacuate, and looking at the damage, it doesn't quite make sense.

Quote from: Aerobird on September 19, 2017, 05:31:00 PM

Quote from: Brandon on September 19, 2017, 05:04:57 PM
Contraflow as in most of the rest of the Southeast from Texas to North Carolina might help.

As I mentioned in another thread, Florida used to do contraflow (and the Interstates are signed for it) but I understand they have specifically opted to remove contraflow from the box of tools, with "shoulder lanes" being the chosen solution instead.

Has it formerly been removed? I thought they just felt it wasn't appropriate for this storm, given the breadth of the evacuation area and lack of area to be able to dump the traffic at the end of the contraflow, and the lack of routes given the evacuation area wasn't a section of the state like usually, but instead the entire state.

Quote from: UCFKnights on September 19, 2017, 05:34:45 PMHas it formerly been removed? I thought they just felt it wasn't appropriate for this storm, given the breadth of the evacuation area and lack of area to be able to dump the traffic at the end of the contraflow, and the lack of routes given the evacuation area wasn't a section of the state like usually, but instead the entire state.

My dad works for one of DOT's divisions (I forget the specific one right off the top of my head at the moment) and during a drive to Jacksonville a couple of weeks ago (well pre-Irma) he commented on that when observing some of the 'facing the wrong direction' signs on eastbound I-10 - that they would probably be taken down at some point, as contraflow was no longer a done thing.

I don't understand why they don't do contraflow any more, but in my mind, it seems pretty stupid.  Fuel trucks and whatnot that really need to head south can take the US routes.

Here's an idea on how to evacuate the state: assign every household an evacuation number.  The number would be mostly random, but people would be classed as "regular", "essential", and "critical" based on occupation and role in their workplace, with "critical" evacuating last.  In the event of a storm coming to Florida, institute mandatory staged evacuations, starting one week before the storm hits.  Families would evacuate based on number, and all interstates and the Turnpike would be in contraflow (as would US 1 in the Keys; gas stations there would be required to have reserves, as delivery would not be possible).  Travel south would be banned except for essential goods and services, such fuel trucks, and would be restricted to surface streets.  A few hours before the storm hits, the people in "critical" jobs would evacuate, and the entire state would become a ghost town.  Reverse for the return.

Though, to be honest, I do question why someone would want to live in a place susceptible to such storms.  You're taking a risk that your home could be obliterated every few years.

Quote from: bigdave on September 19, 2017, 10:56:44 AM
I think that a point missing in this discussion is that Florida's highways generally are not keeping up with the state's population growth. As noted above, the money is just not there.

I would think that an additional lane on I-75 northbound out of Wildwood for some extended length (maybe 10 miles) might ease that bottleneck without overbuilding.

Did Georgia ever finish 3-laning all of I-75?

yes, it has finished 75 and seems to now be working on 85 north of Atlanta.

I made a printscreen of Google Maps on September 8 when Irma approached Florida and evacuations were in full swing. You can clearly see the Wildwood bottleneck being worse than most other routes in the region. I-95 had serious backups from Savannah because it narrows down to four lanes near the state line.

(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FxgZkOmW.png&hash=4798239fc7f6b1ac8f17dca429f43a22c1b19bc8)

But as someone mentioned, the US Highways may have been good alternatives to I-75. Georgia has a massive network of four lane highways. US 19, US 23, US 27 and US 341 may have been good alternatives.

Were there any problems with getting gas along I-75? You'd think the gas stations may be overwhelmed with traffic, because the average traffic between Florida and Macon is only some 40-50k AADT.

I don't think Contraflow routes were taken out of the box completely - they just weren't used for this storm.  Irma was a well known storm far in advance, providing almost too much time to evacuate.  But let's say the storm went from a minor Cat 1 to a Cat 5 much closer to Florida...then the evacuation time is greatly reduced, and the need to get people out faster is much greater.

The gas thing is a whole nother story - and may be something to look into.  People, even in hurricane-prone areas, will consider what they need to survive on for a week or more.  But they'll still allow their gas tank to get to 1/10th full before refilling, not thinking that they may need to get out ASAP at a moment's notice.   Can fuel trucks be staged along the highway to fill tanks as needed, a la NASCAR style, in such an evacuation?

Quote from: Georgia on September 19, 2017, 10:40:46 PM

Quote from: bigdave on September 19, 2017, 10:56:44 AM
I think that a point missing in this discussion is that Florida's highways generally are not keeping up with the state's population growth. As noted above, the money is just not there.

I would think that an additional lane on I-75 northbound out of Wildwood for some extended length (maybe 10 miles) might ease that bottleneck without overbuilding.

Did Georgia ever finish 3-laning all of I-75?

yes, it has finished 75 and seems to now be working on 85 north of Atlanta.

Thank you, that is good news especially with regards to 85 North.

David

Quote from: vdeane on September 19, 2017, 10:00:59 PM
Though, to be honest, I do question why someone would want to live in a place susceptible to such storms.  You're taking a risk that your home could be obliterated every few years.

[puts on ignorant Southerner hat] Why do you choose to live in an area that's susceptible to blizzards? [takes off hat]

Seriously, we can ask the "why do you choose to live in a place with [insert major problem here]?" to almost anyone in the US. There are a lot of factors that go into it. Some people live where they live because that's where their job or career is. Some because that's where their family is. Some because that's where they grew up and they really don't want to live elsewhere. Some because they like the food, culture, recreation and sporting, or some other "trifle."

Look at New Orleans. The city is still as prone to flooding as it was before Katrina. Yet people rebuilt and continued living there. Because it was their home.

I'm pretty sure there are lots of reasons why people live in southern Florida that aren't trumped by the fear of an occasional hurricane.

Quote from: jbnv on September 20, 2017, 11:30:52 AM
Look at New Orleans. The city is still as prone to flooding as it was before Katrina. Yet people rebuilt and continued living there. Because it was their home.

Indeed, and New Orleans is vulnerable on more counts than that. Before Katrina the city never declared a mandatory evacuation until less than a day before landfall. The reason cited is still as relevant now as it was then. There are essentially two multi-lane routes leaving town, I-10 East and I-10 West. Now you might argue that there's also I-55 North, but you must travel at least 15 miles west on I-10 just to get to I-55. You might point out the causeway to Covington, but if you go that route then you'll soon have to get right back to I-10 or 12. All other routes are unsafe because they're not elevated.

Quote from: jeffandnicole on September 20, 2017, 06:23:21 AM
I don't think Contraflow routes were taken out of the box completely - they just weren't used for this storm.

Well, as I mentioned before, that came up well before Irma was even a thing...so, it's possible he's wrong, of course, but "contraflow isn't a thing anymore" is not connected to "they didn't use contraflow for Irma".

Quote from: berberry on September 20, 2017, 04:11:31 PM
There are essentially two multi-lane routes leaving town, I-10 East and I-10 West. Now you might argue that there's also I-55 North, but you must travel at least 15 miles west on I-10 just to get to I-55.

The fact that I-55 is fairly close to New Orleans does in fact make it an effective second route.

Quote from: berberry on September 20, 2017, 04:11:31 PM
You might point out the causeway to Covington, but if you go that route then you'll soon have to get right back to I-10 or 12.

False. From the Causeway, you can proceed to LA 25 and go north into Mississippi.

Quote from: berberry on September 20, 2017, 04:11:31 PM
All other routes are unsafe because they're not elevated.

What's wrong with US 61? It's four lanes all the way from New Orleans to Mississippi. Ditto US 90 west to I-49.

Quote from: vdeane on September 19, 2017, 10:00:59 PM

Here's an idea on how to evacuate the state: assign every household an evacuation number.  The number would be mostly random, but people would be classed as "regular", "essential", and "critical" based on occupation and role in their workplace, with "critical" evacuating last.  In the event of a storm coming to Florida, institute mandatory staged evacuations, starting one week before the storm hits.  Families would evacuate based on number, and all interstates and the Turnpike would be in contraflow (as would US 1 in the Keys; gas stations there would be required to have reserves, as delivery would not be possible).  Travel south would be banned except for essential goods and services, such fuel trucks, and would be restricted to surface streets.  A few hours before the storm hits, the people in "critical" jobs would evacuate, and the entire state would become a ghost town.  Reverse for the return.

Though, to be honest, I do question why someone would want to live in a place susceptible to such storms.  You're taking a risk that your home could be obliterated every few years.

#1) Most people in the state stayed. 6.4 million of 20.6 million people in the state evacuated. However, even in that number, many evacuated within the state. There would be no way at all to enforce the system you proposed. Given the lack of ability to get gas to the people that needed it during this storm, any plan to expand evacuation is dead on arrival. And it wasn't a lack of fuel, Florida had plenty of fuel sitting off the coast at our ports, it was a lack of ability to fill the trucks and stations as fast as there was demand for it. Any updates to our evacuation plan need to encourage evacuation locally and discourage these long distance trips for most people.
#2) Building codes in Florida for the past 20 years or so have eliminated any risk that our homes could be obliterated every few years. The risk is they could suffer minor damage, and our streets and utilities could be unavailable for several days to a few weeks, and typically once a decade or so. The type of devastation seen in Andrew and in other states simply isn't realistic for anything build with the post-Andrew Florida building code. I imagine the everyday risk of a fire in the home is probably more likely to obliterate a home than a hurricane.

The risks in most other areas of the country seem far worse, with blizzards, earthquakes (no time to prepare), or are unsustainable, like deserts.

And yet Key West was wiped off the map.

Blizzards are nothing.  Just stay home for the day if it's bad and let the plows do their job.  No trouble at all.  You can even go out a make snowmen!  Or get snow tires and learn how to drive in the winter (the key is to keep all velocity changes gradual).  I don't understand why people panic and cause runs on groceries.  Events like what happened in Buffalo a couple years ago are rare, but I grew up in Rochester and we could handle lots of snow easily.  School almost never closed.  We're not like the southeast where entire cities shut down if someone so much as suggests that they saw a snowflake.

Earthquakes and deserts are definitely a problem though.  I keep wondering when that past-due magnitude 9 quake (and associated tsunami) is supposed to hit the pacific northwest.

Quote from: vdeane on September 20, 2017, 09:46:57 PMAnd yet Key West was wiped off the map.

Um...no, it most certainly was not (http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/2017/live-updates/weather/hurricane-irma-a-monster-storms-devastating-path/key-west-not-nearly-as-bad-as-everyone-predicted/) "wiped off the map".

I understand people like to engage in this kind of hysterical hyperbole, but it really needs to stop.

My suggestions would to upgrade certain north-south US highways to freeways within the state, which also include bypassing towns. Highways such as:

US 17 (between US 41 and US 192, from the Orange-Seminole county line to the Clay-Duval county line, and then north of Jacksonville)
US 19 (north of FL 50)
US 27 (does not include sections in Miami)
US 98 (north south portion)
US 441 (does not include the Miami portion)
US 301
US 1 (between Miami and Key West)

and so on. At the time of evacuation, they could encourage people use both Interstates and US Highways to prevent jams on I-75 and I-95. Also, they can issue routes based on where you live. So if you live in Tampa, would might be instructed to use US 19, US 41, or I-75, but if somebody is from Miami, they could use US 27, US 441 or a combination of those.

Note: coming from somebody who's never lived in Florida; just my 2 cents and basing it off states like Wisconsin and Iowa which upgrade their US Routes to freeways or at the very least expressways

Quote from: noelbotevera on September 20, 2017, 10:18:10 PM
My suggestions would to upgrade certain north-south US highways to freeways within the state, which also include bypassing towns. Highways such as:

US 17 (between US 41 and US 192, from the Orange-Seminole county line to the Clay-Duval county line, and then north of Jacksonville)
US 19 (north of FL 50)
US 27 (does not include sections in Miami)
US 98 (north south portion)
US 441 (does not include the Miami portion)
US 301
US 1 (between Miami and Key West)

and so on. At the time of evacuation, they could encourage people use both Interstates and US Highways to prevent jams on I-75 and I-95. Also, they can issue routes based on where you live. So if you live in Tampa, would might be instructed to use US 19, US 41, or I-75, but if somebody is from Miami, they could use US 27, US 441 or a combination of those.

Note: coming from somebody who's never lived in Florida; just my 2 cents and basing it off states like Wisconsin and Iowa which upgrade their US Routes to freeways or at the very least expressways

I've been on US 27 between the Turnpike and US 441 (and a small amount of the 27/441 overlap). They would have to remove a LOT of businesses if that was a freeway. I assume other US routes would be the same.

Quote from: vdeane on September 20, 2017, 09:46:57 PM
And yet Key West was wiped off the map.

Blizzards are nothing.  Just stay home for the day if it's bad and let the plows do their job.  No trouble at all.  You can even go out a make snowmen!  Or get snow tires and learn how to drive in the winter (the key is to keep all velocity changes gradual).  I don't understand why people panic and cause runs on groceries.  Events like what happened in Buffalo a couple years ago are rare, but I grew up in Rochester and we could handle lots of snow easily.  School almost never closed.  We're not like the southeast where entire cities shut down if someone so much as suggests that they saw a snowflake.

Earthquakes and deserts are definitely a problem though.  I keep wondering when that past-due magnitude 9 quake (and associated tsunami) is supposed to hit the pacific northwest.

I remember when "Hurricane" Sandy hit New York, it sounded so much worse then anything thats hit Florida while I've been here.

The Keys, the barrier islands, trailer parks, and low lying areas are a real problem during hurricanes due to the storm surge, thats why they're the evacuation zones. But thats a very small percentage of Florida, both in population and size. I'd be curious to see the stats of the homes "devastated" that were built post Andrew hurricane codes. I think the number will surprise you. Remember, any "pile of sticks" left behind by the hurricane in south florida likely did not comply with the current wind codes... they need concrete block or other materials to meet it.

Quote from: jbnv on September 20, 2017, 08:44:00 PM

Quote from: berberry on September 20, 2017, 04:11:31 PM
There are essentially two multi-lane routes leaving town, I-10 East and I-10 West. Now you might argue that there's also I-55 North, but you must travel at least 15 miles west on I-10 just to get to I-55.

The fact that I-55 is fairly close to New Orleans does in fact make it an effective second route.

Quote from: berberry on September 20, 2017, 04:11:31 PM
You might point out the causeway to Covington, but if you go that route then you'll soon have to get right back to I-10 or 12.

False. From the Causeway, you can proceed to LA 25 and go north into Mississippi.

Quote from: berberry on September 20, 2017, 04:11:31 PM
All other routes are unsafe because they're not elevated.

What's wrong with US 61? It's four lanes all the way from New Orleans to Mississippi. Ditto US 90 west to I-49.

And I don't think I-55 can be counted as a good route when you have to go fifteen miles outside the city to access it. I-10 needs another lane or two on that segment between the city and I-55 to make it a good option. And many of these highways you're talking about are surface roads, not elevated. That's the problem with Airline Highway, even though it is multi-lane. Depending on its size and speed, an approaching hurricane can start dumping rain on a city days before landfall, so the flooding risk can be high well before the storm fully arrives. I would think that's even more true when most of the area is below sea level.

The Louisiana route you mentioned, from Covington into Mississippi, looks as though it's still just two lanes on Google maps. Is that incorrect? If so I stand corrected, but if not then I don't think a surface two-lane road is a viable option when a city of over a million population is ordered to suddenly evacuate.

I was here in Vicksburg, working at a hotel, when Katrina struck. The hotel was filled with nothing but evacuees for about two weeks after the storm. You are right about Hwy 61, but it was so many of the guests that told me you can't use that road until you are well out of New Orleans because it is so low to the ground and at risk of flooding. However, once you get well away from the city it is definitely a good option, even a great option. During the Hurricane Katrina evacuation, people who used 61 started arriving in Vicksburg about six hours before anyone using I-55 arrived, and during that time they took every. single. available. room. By the time the I-55 travelers started to arrive, and I called our central reservations system to try to help them find rooms, I was informed that the closest hotel with rooms available was in Missouri.

low-lying roads are only an issue after the rain begins....not during an evacuation.  I think you're confusing things.

Quote from: berberry on September 21, 2017, 09:08:28 AM
And I don't think I-55 can be counted as a good route when you have to go fifteen miles outside the city to access it. I-10 needs another lane or two on that segment between the city and I-55 to make it a good option.

There are additional lanes: the eastbound ones on I-10. The segment between I-55 and the city has been redesigned to facilitate contraflow. There are even signs up that indicate which segment to take if one is going to Baton Rouge or Hammond.

Quote from: berberry on September 21, 2017, 09:08:28 AM
The Louisiana route you mentioned, from Covington into Mississippi, looks as though it's still just two lanes on Google maps. Is that incorrect? If so I stand corrected, but if not then I don't think a surface two-lane road is a viable option when a city of over a million population is ordered to suddenly evacuate.

Did I say it was the only evacuation route? No, it's one of several routes. You discount it only because it's a two-lane road.

Quote from: berberry on September 21, 2017, 09:08:28 AM
You are right about Hwy 61, but it was so many of the guests that told me you can't use that road until you are well out of New Orleans because it is so low to the ground and at risk of flooding.

How flooded was it when they evacuated?

Quote from: noelbotevera on September 20, 2017, 10:18:10 PM
My suggestions would to upgrade certain north-south US highways to freeways within the state, which also include bypassing towns. Highways such as:

US 17 (between US 41 and US 192, from the Orange-Seminole county line to the Clay-Duval county line, and then north of Jacksonville)
US 19 (north of FL 50)
US 27 (does not include sections in Miami)
US 98 (north south portion)
US 441 (does not include the Miami portion)
US 301
US 1 (between Miami and Key West)

and so on. At the time of evacuation, they could encourage people use both Interstates and US Highways to prevent jams on I-75 and I-95. Also, they can issue routes based on where you live. So if you live in Tampa, would might be instructed to use US 19, US 41, or I-75, but if somebody is from Miami, they could use US 27, US 441 or a combination of those.

Note: coming from somebody who's never lived in Florida; just my 2 cents and basing it off states like Wisconsin and Iowa which upgrade their US Routes to freeways or at the very least expressways

During the height of evacuation. The turnpike and 75 had problems but US27 and US1, US 441 and other roads (US and SR) had virtually no traffic.

Instead of building hundreds of miles of freeways, during evacuations some sort of traffic light coordination or being on flash mode would be better

US19/98 is all 4 lanes mostly 65mph speed limit from north of SR50 to i10 with low traffic counts.. Its very desolate no need for a full freeway

US17/92 is Seminole County is urban 4 and 5 lane road.. Near Jax it is suburban boulevard.. Freeway upgrade would ve super expensive.. Between Palatka and Deland US17 is mostly 2 lanes .. I think it would be good to have it 4 lanes as another corridor but not needed today in the futurr yes.. I would love a Palatka freeway bypass but that would involve a new bridge of the St Johns River.. Not likely to ever be done. 17 is a decent alternate to i4/95 between Orlando and Jax now except for around Orange Park, Palatka and Deland

301 starke bypass is under construction.  The current link between 301 and 75  is sr326 just north of Ocala.. That needs to be bypassed. There are 3 or 4 truck stops at the 326 exit off 75 along with traffic lights. I wouls like a freeway link from 75 directly to 301 near Citra, lets call it i575, but the way things are it will probably be a toll road..  Most of 301 is wide open (small towns like Citra, Hawthorne, and the infamous Waldo and Lawtey have reduced speed limit). Nearer Jax there will be some suburban growth i hope access is limited with any development that comes.

In short.. There are already 4 lane highways that could be used for evacuation.

Many evacuees didnt NEEED to evacuate.. they didnt want to deal with no power in the aftermath.. Which i understand

LGMS428

QuotePrimarily the latter. People need to stop thinking the Interestate is the Only Road. There were plenty of routes, but everyone lemming-trained onto I-75.

I totally agree. Florida has a pretty good network of state and US highways people could have used.

In regards to Louisiana, Airline Highway IS a good alternative evacuation route. I don't recall ANY problems during evacuations. The only below sea level sections are in parts of Jefferson and New Orleans.

Quote from: froggie on September 21, 2017, 09:09:50 AM
low-lying roads are only an issue after the rain begins....not during an evacuation.  I think you're confusing things.

Agreed.

The solution is to construct most, if not all buildings to withstand severe hurricane winds and flooding so everyone can just shelter in place.  Then there's no need for millions of people to mob the highways.
Expensive? Maybe, but compared to the cost of underbuilt structures getting damaged, I think they come out on top.  Additionally, the trauma of losing all one's shit goes away.  Oh and fewer people die.  That's good too.
We construct buildings to withstand earthquakes in seismically active areas.
We construct buildings to withstand cold temperatures and heavy snowfall in northern areas.

What's sad is I'm sure all the same garbage houses will be rebuilt in the same places that just got annihilated.  Then we get to do this all again in a few years.

Quote from: triplemultiplex on September 21, 2017, 05:04:12 PM
The solution is to construct most, if not all buildings to withstand severe hurricane winds and flooding so everyone can just shelter in place.  Then there's no need for millions of people to mob the highways.
Expensive? Maybe, but compared to the cost of underbuilt structures getting damaged, I think they come out on top.  Additionally, the trauma of losing all one's shit goes away.  Oh and fewer people die.  That's good too.
We construct buildings to withstand earthquakes in seismically active areas.
We construct buildings to withstand cold temperatures and heavy snowfall in northern areas.

What's sad is I'm sure all the same garbage houses will be rebuilt in the same places that just got annihilated.  Then we get to do this all again in a few years.

Er...

You have read the rest of the thread where it's been pointed out on multiple occasions that this is what the Florida building code requires, right?

Quote from: Aerobird on September 18, 2017, 11:39:56 PM

Turnpike.

My bad. Technically identical. "turnpike" is just another term for a tollway, just with more historical bearing.

QuoteI assume you mean Marianna, Florida, not Marietta, as the latter is a neighborhood of Jacksonville where I-295 and I-10 meet. This would be a much inferior routing to 231 mentioned below...

Yes, Marianna, not Marietta next to Jacksonville.

Quote"We need more money."
"Sorry, you can't have more money."
And then nothing gets done.

Um, I call baloney. Highway spending in FDOT District 2 exceeded $1 Billion dollars in 2016-17. While much is a political thank you note from the governor for getting him elected, lack of money for highways is not an issue in Florida.

And yet, the roads that need work (US-319 south of Tallahassee, for example) wait 25 years after they get an "F" sufficiency rating.

Quote from: Aerobird on September 23, 2017, 02:42:28 AM
And yet, the roads that need work (US-319 south of Tallahassee, for example) wait 25 years after they get an "F" sufficiency rating.

I agree...we have roads that need fixing, but its not due to lack of funds.

I could pull up the latest bridge rating report statewide and show lots of examples of bridges that are sub-standard in condition.

But our leaders prefer to pour cash into roads that support development and commerce first. It's a habit that formed after WW2 to promote Florida development and hasn't changed much.

Sometimes I shake my head at how instantly FDOT has dough to add a feature to an existing highway that was never in anyones TPO plan or never heard of until the first public hearing is announced. Then everyone is a like "whoa, where did that come from?"

Florida probably isn't going to be doing contra-flow ever.   It takes a lot of manpower from Florida Highway Patrol to do it.  And it prevents vehicles from getting to the coastal areas.  Gas stations, supermarkets and hardware stores were constantly bringing in products to replenish their stocks.  Plus, people do need to be able to get around.  For instance, when my grandmother was still alive and living in Tampa, the plan would have been for my parents in Orlando to drive over to get her and bring her to their house.  That would have been near impossible if I-4 was in a contra-flow situation.

As others have pointed out, while I-75 and I-95 were busy, there were lesser roads that were flowing better.  US 1 and US 17 on the east coast.   US 41, 441 and 301 in the center of the state, and US 19, 27 and 98 along the western side were all viable alternatives.  Sure, there are traffic lights and such, but at least they were moving.   

Irma was different from most hurricanes in that it was a huge storm and took a path up the middle of the state.  And we rarely have 6-7 days notice that a storm is coming.  Usually it's 3-4 days.  Sometimes it's even less.  In 2004, it was a Wednesday morning when it started looking like Hurricane Charley was going to be a serious problem for Florida.  It hit late afternoon the following Friday.

And in addition the US highways there are roads like SR19 and CR315 through and near the Ocala National Forest.. those roads are usually empty.. people get scared cuz they loose cell phone service.. no GPS, no Pandora, no porn

My uncle said he could get from Jacksonville are to Tallahassee on dirt roads

Z981