NFL (2024 Season)

[Big John]

Another factor is that coach LaFleur has never lost a game in December.

[thspfc]

I must say, the lack of whining about the refs when it's the Chiefs who got the tough end of a controversial non-PI is noticeable.

[US 89]

I must say, the lack of whining about the refs when it's the Chiefs who got the tough end of a controversial non-PI is noticeable.

There were multiple questionable calls and non-calls that went both ways in the last minute. That was probably just the most egregious one.

Plus, the TV commentators were such Chiefs homers on the Hail Mary pass at the end that things needed to balance out. You never see PI called on a Hail Mary unless it's particularly egregious, and I've seen plenty worse let go in those situations, but they whined about the lack of a PI there for the rest of the broadcast.

[epzik8]

Very sorry about Trevor Lawrence. I had no idea the Jags would have had the first seed in the AFC if they won last night.

[DenverBrian]

Very sorry about Trevor Lawrence. I had no idea the Jags would have had the first seed in the AFC if they won last night.

Reported as a sprained ankle. He'll walk it off. And if he does, his little tantrum after the injury is going to look juvenile.

[webny99]

Very sorry about Trevor Lawrence. I had no idea the Jags would have had the first seed in the AFC if they won last night.

Reported as a sprained ankle. He'll walk it off. And if he does, his little tantrum after the injury is going to look juvenile.

If there was a tantrum, I missed it. The main issue after Lawrence's injury seemed to be the lack of a cart to assist him off the field.

[jgb191]

This is not good news for the AFC South.  With Trevor Lawrence and Tank Dell injured for god know how long, there went my hope of our division making a big splash in this year's playoffs.

And it's not looking good for the Texans on Sunday; CJ and his offense now have to deal with the wrath of Sauce Gardner and the formidable NY Jets defense, which I've heard is one of the best in the NFL this year.  During the preseason, it was widely believed that this would have been an easy win for the Jets.  But now this has trap game written all over it for the Texans and I'm worried about the same outcome as we suffered at Charlotte and Atlanta snatching a last-second defeat from the jaws of victory (the demons of Texans past years conspiring to hold the team back).  Last year's draft 2022, I really wanted the Texans to draft Sauce instead of Derek Jr. as I thought Sauce Gardner would be a better fit for us.

[thspfc]

Steelers
Texans
Rams
Saints
Bengals
Buccaneers
Browns
Lions
49ers
Raiders
Chargers
Bills
Cowboys
Packers
Dolphins

[thspfc]

If the Texans make the playoffs this January, CJ might be in the list of MVP considerations and DeMeco should be a lock for Coach of the Year.

Any chance of either of these things happening was extinguished today, in a simply horrible loss in every facet of the game. People won't care because expectations for the Texans were so low entering the season, but that's a haunting loss. The good news is that remaining on their schedule, they have two games against teams they're directly competing with (Browns, Colts) and two games against the Titans.

Bills

The last three years, I've picked the Chiefs to lose exactly twice (including the playoffs). Both times they were at home against Buffalo, and both times they lost. The Bills are 3-1 in their last four games at Arrowhead, but due to 13 seconds, the narrative is still that the Chiefs own them. Interesting juxtaposition with the narrative around the 49ers/Rams matchup - the 49ers have dominated in the regular season, the Rams won in the NFC title game, but the perception is that the 49ers own that rivalry. 

The entire AFC is now 7-6, with only the Ravens and Dolphins being comfortably in the playoffs.

[jgb191]

If I were DeMeco Ryans, I'd now save CJ and Will Jr. until next fall.  I'm not sure about risking more injury to our draftees by playing them more this season, especially now that this playoffs is practically out of the Texans reach....a 9-8 record (my projected finish) simply won't be good enough to snag a Wild Card spot especially teams like Denver and Buffalo on a tear lately and Cincinnati unaffected by Joe Burrow's injury.  We already lost Dell and possibly Nico Collins, among several other players.

[webny99]

Bills

The last three years, I've picked the Chiefs to lose exactly twice (including the playoffs). Both times they were at home against Buffalo, and both times they lost. The Bills are 3-1 in their last four games at Arrowhead, but due to 13 seconds, the narrative is still that the Chiefs own them.

Three wins at Arrowhead in the Mahomes era is not something a lot of teams can claim, and yet, it is still fair to keep that in the context of 0-2 in the playoffs until proven otherwise. And so much for that bonkers McDermott report sabotaging their season (which, I believe, is what the author of that piece intended).

Enough said about the Bills, but it's worth noting that it's turning into a strange season for the Chiefs, too. Sub-30 point outings have very much become the norm rather than the exception, and with five losses (and suddenly only a 1-game lead in the AFC West!) it's very likely that Mahomes will have to play on the road in the playoffs, and that the AFC title game will be hosted somewhere other than Arrowhead, both of which are long overdue.

Interesting juxtaposition with the narrative around the 49ers/Rams matchup - the 49ers have dominated in the regular season, the Rams won in the NFC title game, but the perception is that the 49ers own that rivalry. 

I don't think it's the least bit unfair to say that the 49ers own that rivalry. The Rams have a single HUGE win, but the 49ers are otherwise 9-0 against the Rams in the last five seasons.

The entire AFC is now 7-6, with only the Ravens and Dolphins being comfortably in the playoffs.

I know this was meant as hyperbole, but you actually don't have to change it that much to be true:
"With only the Ravens and Dolphins being comfortably in the playoffs, the rest of the AFC playoff contenders are now 7-6 or 8-5"

As another reference point, the Bills somehow fell from the 10 seed to the 11 seed today while doubling their playoff odds from 20% to 40% (per NYT). There's just so many middling teams in that mix and they all seem to be playing each every week. It's become hard to even decipher rooting interests, since one middling team losing just bumps another one back up the standings.

[webny99]

My quick and dirty conference power rankings:

AFC
---Division leaders---
1. Ravens
2. Dolphins
3. Chiefs
4. Jaguars
---Wild Card contenders---
5. Bills
6. Broncos
7. Browns
8. Texans
9. Bengals
10. Colts
11. Steelers
---Playing out the string---
12. Chargers
13. Jets
14. Titans
15. Raiders
16. Patriots

NFC
---Division leaders---
1. 49ers
2. Cowboys*
3. Lions
4. LOL
---Wild Card contenders---
5. Eagles*
6. Packers
7. Rams
8. Seahawks
9. Vikings
10/11. Bucs/Falcons/Saints
---Playing out the string---
12. Bears**
13. Giants
14. Cardinals
15. Commanders
16. Panthers




* Pending the result of tonight's game
** Don't look now, but they could make the playoffs if they win out

[thspfc]

After tonight I hope the Cowboys don't meet the Eagles again in the playoffs, even though I'm confident Dallas would win such a game regardless of location. It's clear that the Cowboys have "won" the season series, with Philly's W coming by a matter of inches (on 3 different plays!), while Dallas' W was domination from the first drive.

This is the best Cowboys team since 1995 (and therefore, the best of my lifetime). I wasn't all that broken up over the previous two playoff losses. 2021 was a pleasant surprise overall, 2022 was a case of running into a white-hot team on an 11-game win streak. But this year, not at least snapping the NFC championship appearence streak would be crushing.

Unfortunately, winning the division still seems less likely than not. Philly has the Seahawks, Giants twice, and Cardinals left on their schedule. Dallas has the Bills, Fins, Lions, and Commies. It's a carbon copy of last year: being a wild card means going to either San Fran or Philly in the divisional, and let's hope to the heavens above it's Philly.

Cowboys/Bills next week is a very intruiging game because both teams have their backs against the wall for different reasons. Dallas has a massive seeding swing on the line, while Buffalo has playoff status period on the line. I'm interested to see what Vegas does with the odds for that one as well.

[thspfc]

One final note on the week: Brock Purdy should not be anywhere near the MVP discussion. This is not just me being salty. We have no concrete reason to believe Purdy is anything more than slightly better than peak Jimmy Garoppolo. A QB proven to be the epitome of mediocre having only slightly less success in the same offense, when that offense wasn't even as talented as it is now, should tell anyone that Purdy is not the most valuable player in the league. A franchise QB? Absolutely. But if you took Hurts off the Eagles, Lamar off the Ravens, Dak off the Cowboys, or Tua off the Dolphins, those teams would suffer far more than the Niners would in the absence of Purdy. (And that's not even mentioning Mahomes and Allen, who prop up their entire offenses on a weekly basis but don't have enough W's or raw stats to be in contention.)

[epzik8]

The Chiefs no longer run the NFL.

[Big John]

The Chiefs no longer run the NFL.

and complaining about the refs again.

[jgb191]

Seemed to me that Toney's foot was on right the line of scrimmage and therefore the refs called it correctly unless I need better glasses.  Mahomes has nobody to blame but Buffalo; in my opinion it's the Bills fault for the Chiefs losing, in fact it'd be more accurate to say that Bills won the game instead of the Chiefs losing it.

One final note on the week: Brock Purdy should not be anywhere near the MVP discussion.

I would like to think that Christian McCaffrey is the best player on the NFL's best team and probably my choice for MVP.

[Big John]

^^ Better picture of him offsides: https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1734210600471822339?s=20

[thspfc]

I would like to think that Christian McCaffrey is the best player on the NFL's best team and probably my choice for MVP.

McCaffrey is not in my top 10 either. Shanahan has made almost every starting running back he's coached look very good to elite. McCaffrey is obviously the best one he's had, but they would still be running the ball just fine without him, and they could find someone to fill his role in the passing game to decent success.

The 49ers are simply an incredibly talented and well coached team on both sides of the ball, with no single player who is head and shoulders above the rest. The best team is not required to have the MVP on it. Hastily awarding the MVP to the best player on the best team lacks any sort of nuance whatsoever.

[kurumi]

The Jets are back :-) Even from a fair-weather Pats fan (and the weather is cloudy again), that was a fun game. Respect.

(Also, the Pats being terrible made the Pittsburgh outcome much more entertaining. A 6-6 Pats team out of the playoff picture squeaking by in PGH would not be the same.)

[mgk920]

The Chiefs no longer run the NFL.

and complaining about the refs again.

That offsides call WAS correct at Andy Reid is a big whiner.

Mike

[webny99]

I guess this isn't surprising, but 31 teams in the NFL are either in position for a top-10 draft pick or have at least a 15% chance to make the playoffs. The Panthers, of course, are the exception. You probably have to go back to the 0-16 Browns to find a team that was as lost as this Panthers team, and the fact that they have a rookie QB and no first round pick while being this terrible is just sad.

[webny99]

Wow, two pretty huge upsets tonight to cap what was already an upset-heavy week.

In less than 36 hours we've gone from Bills being on the cusp of irrelevance to maybe still having a shot at the division. The chances of Bills-Dolphins Week 18 being a division title game are certainly back on the rise.

[Ted$8roadFan]

This season gas been marred by injuries, especially to quarterbacks:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/12/11/23997145/quarterback-injuries-justin-herbert-trevor-lawrence-joe-burrow

[NWI_Irish96]

This season gas been marred by injuries, especially to quarterbacks:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/12/11/23997145/quarterback-injuries-justin-herbert-trevor-lawrence-joe-burrow

Everybody wanted that 17th regular season game, well those hits add up.