Football (North America: NFL, CFL, Arena Football, minor leagues)

[jakeroot]

Another miserable day to be a Dolphins fan. My Smokin' Jay Cutler, "don't care" shirt will be getting a lot of use this season.

One advantage to being a Dolphins fan right now: nobody will think you're on a bandwagon.

That's one of the few reasons I have for sticking around. If they get better, at least I can say I was around for when they were shit.

I'm not into sports at all - never have been - but this is one game I'll be watching at least semi-closely. Not only because it's rare to have two 3-0 teams facing each other. The winner goes 4-0, and if the Bills can pull off the upset, they'll have a better record than the Pats, and they may even have a decent shot at winning the AFC East, becoming the first non-Patriots winner in at least a decade, if not my entire lifetime.

I dunno. Dolphins started last year 3-0 too. This early in the season really isn't all that indicative of the ultimate outcome at the end of the season.

Pats are my second favorite team. We have family here in the area who are long-time Pats fans, and they've basically been with us every Sunday at the bars watching football games. We support the Pats for their sake. If they go to another Superbowl, it's not a problem with me. Unless the Dolphins have a decent shot!

[hotdogPi]

Here's why I don't like college football:

1. Colleges are supposed to be for academics. Most schools focus on academics or sports, but not both.

2. It often sounds like entire states are playing against each other. In an international soccer game that's US vs. Germany, the two teams represent their countries. Michigan vs. Alabama, not so much.

3. If a team goes undefeated but doesn't make it to the finals, what's the point of that team existing?

[1995hoo]

 

https://twitter.com/thecheckdown/status/1176316629115817984?s=21

[mgk920]

Here's why I don't like college football:

1. Colleges are supposed to be for academics. Most schools focus on academics or sports, but not both.

2. It often sounds like entire states are playing against each other. In an international soccer game that's US vs. Germany, the two teams represent their countries. Michigan vs. Alabama, not so much.

3. If a team goes undefeated but doesn't make it to the finals, what's the point of that team existing?

I've been increasingly turned off by college and high school sports over the past few decades and with the way that the entire university scene is going, both with sports AND academics, I see this all turning into a massive souffle that will eventually come crashing down and HARD.

Example, should these occasional articles and discussions of college players being paid a base salary rate bear fruit and take hold, kiss the NCAA good-bye.  Add the Title IX equality of the sexes rule to that mix and only a couple of the biggest sports power schools will be able to maintain athletic departments, no less football teams, if even that many.

Right now I'd be much more into the sports scene had the high schools and colleges never gotten into the sports biz and North America early on gone the route of the overseas private sports club model, complete with performance-based promotion and relegation between the competition levels.

When the NCAA implodes, I can see the private sports club model taking hold fairly quickly in both the USA and Canada.

Mike

[NWI_Irish96]

The big time football and basketball schools are never going to give up having college sports.  Private clubs, unless they are strongly affiliated with colleges, are never going to be anywhere near the TV draw. 

What I see coming is about half of the Division I schools (all of the FBS football schools plus some of the bigger FCS and non-football schools) breaking away to form their own organization outside of the NCAA.  They will come up with an athlete compensation model that (1) all member schools can afford and (2) does not provide an unfair advantage to the wealthier athletic departments. 

[ce929wax]

Since my thread got locked, I'll post my comment on todays Wolverines vs. Illini game here.

Harbaugh is garbage and needs to be run out of town.  We should have beaten the Illini 42-0 instead of 42-25.

[thspfc]

Since my thread got locked, I'll post my comment on todays Wolverines vs. Illini game here.

Harbaugh is garbage and needs to be run out of town.  We should have beaten the Illini 42-0 instead of 42-25.

Just be thankful that they won, because they won't be doing much winning next week.

[US71]

Once again, Arkansas snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. Blew 13-7 lead in the Second Quarter and went down 24-20 vs Kentucky.

...and just lost another football recruit

[wanderer2575]

Another miserable day to be a Dolphins fan. My Smokin' Jay Cutler, "don't care" shirt will be getting a lot of use this season.

One advantage to being a Dolphins fan right now: nobody will think you're on a bandwagon.

[kurumi]

Imagine a reverse NFL postseason where the worst 12 teams play, and if you lose you keep going. (However, the Tank Bowl loser also gets #1 draft pick.) The Phins would probably get a bye, but there's still the possibility of going 0-19. (Unless they "win" to the Redskins and are taunted about "1-18" for life)

[nexus73]

Imagine a reverse NFL postseason where the worst 12 teams play, and if you lose you keep going. (However, the Tank Bowl loser also gets #1 draft pick.) The Phins would probably get a bye, but there's still the possibility of going 0-19. (Unless they "win" to the Redskins and are taunted about "1-18" for life)

I also thought of the "you lose, you keep on playing" deal years ago.  Finding out who is the worst of the worst would certainly be entertaining a la The Three Stooges...LOL!

Rick

[hotdogPi]

Imagine a reverse NFL postseason where the worst 12 teams play, and if you lose you keep going. (However, the Tank Bowl loser also gets #1 draft pick.) The Phins would probably get a bye, but there's still the possibility of going 0-19. (Unless they "win" to the Redskins and are taunted about "1-18" for life)

I also thought of the "you lose, you keep on playing" deal years ago.  Finding out who is the worst of the worst would certainly be entertaining a la The Three Stooges...LOL!

Rick

The only way I could see this happening is a game where the reward for winning is a better draft pick.

[triplemultiplex]

That's where other pro sports would have their relegation game.  Tanking means you're a minor league team next season.

[jakeroot]

Imagine a reverse NFL postseason where the worst 12 teams play, and if you lose you keep going. (However, the Tank Bowl loser also gets #1 draft pick.) The Phins would probably get a bye, but there's still the possibility of going 0-19. (Unless they "win" to the Redskins and are taunted about "1-18" for life)

Well, they already have a perfect season, so I doubt they'll be concerned about any other "zero" records.

[formulanone]

Imagine a reverse NFL postseason where the worst 12 teams play, and if you lose you keep going. (However, the Tank Bowl loser also gets #1 draft pick.) The Phins would probably get a bye, but there's still the possibility of going 0-19. (Unless they "win" to the Redskins and are taunted about "1-18" for life)

I can foresee lots of intentional safeties...own goals, anyone?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbados_4—2_Grenada_(1994_Caribbean_Cup_qualification)

Don't even worry about all that; I'm so used to the Dolphins being awful in the past 10-15 years that they'll make sure to fumble their chances for a winless season, winding up with the 4th-8th draft spot. Even in 2007, they managed to lose over 6 games by 3 points or less, which was frustrating, but kind of hopeful with a hapless squad. This is almost agonizing, but part of me just wants them to lose to finally stop looking at the good old "undefeated" days as the present - it's been 20 years since they won a single playoff game.

Their overall problem in that timespan is that they're rarely bad enough to be truly awful (until this year), yet barely mediocre enough to get the right draft picks. But we'll trade them on a B-class player who had two great games in his lifetime, knowing he's close enough to retirement. That's what an expansion team does the first two seasons, not a club with a half-century of history. We haven't developed a single quarterback since the 1980s. Think about that! Not even one that suddenly got great on another team...

Usually we can look forward to beating the Pats once a year, but I'm not getting my hopes up. And next year's rebuilding isn't going to be a miracle turn-around season. Getting to 8-8 / 9-7 shouldn't be a goal for the future, but that's what Miami's ownership and front offices seem to strive for.

[CNGL-Leudimin]

I can foresee lots of intentional safeties...own goals, anyone?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbados_4%E2%80%932_Grenada_(1994_Caribbean_Cup_qualification%29

Fixed link.

[formulanone]

I can foresee lots of intentional safeties...own goals, anyone?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbados_4%E2%80%932_Grenada_(1994_Caribbean_Cup_qualification%29

Fixed link.

Yeah, some of the control characters kept messing it up for some reason.

[thspfc]

Imagine a reverse NFL postseason where the worst 12 teams play, and if you lose you keep going. (However, the Tank Bowl loser also gets #1 draft pick.) The Phins would probably get a bye, but there's still the possibility of going 0-19. (Unless they "win" to the Redskins and are taunted about "1-18" for life)

Well, they already have a perfect season, so I doubt they'll be concerned about any other "zero" records.

Patriots/Rams looked like a tank bowl with how those offenses were playing.

Anyways, Wisconsin has trailed for exactly 0.0 seconds this season, and is 6-1 after losing on a last second field goal to ILLINOIS.
I'm not going to say I predicted the outcome, but I just had a feeling they would be looking past IU to Ohio State, and I was right.

[ilpt4u]

Fixed that for ya...

Anyways, Wisconsin has trailed for exactly 0.0 seconds this season, and is 6-1 after losing on a last second field goal to ILLINOIS.
I'm not going to say I predicted the outcome, but I just had a feeling they would be looking past IU UofI to Ohio State, and I was right.

As an Illinois taxpayer and raised on Indiana basketball...

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign is UofI(UC)
Indiana University is IU

[Alps]

I've been giving a lot of thought to the CFP scenarios after week 8. Here's a verbose version of my headspace. (Disclaimer: This is all based on AP Top 25, since CFP rankings haven't come out yet.)

Scenarios in which each conference might send 0 teams:
* ACC: Clemson loses a game. There is no one they could lose to that wouldn't be damaging (even with Wake Forest somehow at #23, but they'll certainly lose again). Not that losing a game completely eliminates them, but they would need a lot of help from other conferences losing to get back in.
* Big 10: Unlikely. The most likely scenario I see is Ohio State losing to Penn State, and then a 1-loss West champion winning. If Ohio State, Penn State, and the Big 10 champion (Wisconsin? Minnesota?) all have 1 loss, none of them are out of the conversation, but they would need help to get in. A more certain scenario involves Ohio State beating Penn State but losing to Michigan. Ohio State is then a 1-loss East representative and already clinging to playoff life. Losing the Big 10 championship would definitely knock them out, and Penn State would be out of the conversation with its loss.
* Big 12: Baylor loses to Oklahoma, and preferably also to Texas. Oklahoma loses the Big 12 championship. In fact, Oklahoma may be on the outside looking in even if it wins out, since it's currently ranked behind Oregon and Utah.
* Pac-12: The winner of Oregon-Utah loses the championship (or some other game, since there's so much parity).
* SEC: Basically impossible, but I loved thinking through this. Alabama beats LSU but loses the rivalry game to Auburn. Georgia beats Florida, loses to Auburn, but still advances to the championship, and then beats Alabama. That gives you a 2-loss SEC champion and the only 1-loss team being LSU who didn't even make it to the championship. LSU is still in the conversation, though, and I don't see them losing any other game. The question is whether you could consider LSU in this scenario but not the team that beat them. As I said, basically impossible.

Scenarios in which each conference might send 2 teams:
* ACC: Nope. No one in Coastal has a chance, and Wake Forest beating Clemson would just knock them both out.
* Big 10: Another one I had fun thinking through. There are a few possibilities here, but it all involves the SEC having a bloodbath (see 0-loss musings above). Most likely is for an undefeated Ohio State to lose in the championship to an undefeated Minnesota. As unlikely as that is, Minnesota would be automatic as a 0-loss Big 10 champion, and Ohio State would get consideration as a 1-loss conference finalist who the judges like. I don't think that Minnesota defeating Penn State has a chance to produce two playoff teams. However, if Penn State runs the table the rest of the way, a 1-loss Ohio State might actually still get consideration - there is precedent with Alabama.
* Big 12: I can't work out a plausible scenario thanks to Oklahoma's loss. That's because of their incestuous playoff structure wherein the two best teams will play twice. If they split with Baylor, neither a 1-loss Baylor nor a 2-loss Oklahoma will get much consideration. So it has to be one or the other.
* Pac-12: Nope. They have exactly one shot.
* SEC: Fairly likely, I think. Multiple scenarios are possible. If the winner of LSU/Alabama loses to the winner of Georgia/Florida, both of those teams are 12-1 if they don't lose any other games (which they theoretically wouldn't). For that matter, if the loser of LSU/Alabama also runs the table, they would finish 11-1 and still garner consideration should one of the other teams end up 11-2. Since all four of those teams are still in the conversation, at least two are likely to still be there in Week 13 unless there is a bloodbath.

My ranked order of the likelihood of playoff scenarios:
1. SEC sends a team. Done deal. Put money on it.
2. Big 10 sends a team. While no one's expecting MN to run the table, the only teams that can reasonably beat Ohio State are Penn State and Michigan. Penn State has already beaten Michigan, so they're likely to go undefeated if they win against Ohio State. If Ohio State wins vs. Penn State, they are pretty much locked into the championship even if they lose to Michigan (which you can bet against comfortably), and are unlikely to lose to the West winner. A 1-loss Ohio State champion is pretty much in.
3. Clemson. I'm ranking them down here because any loss eliminates them (and the entire ACC) barring major catastrophes in other conferences, but that is probably not going to happen.
4. SEC sends a second team. As I noted above, both the West and East winners will probably be ranked in the top 10, and the loser of LSU/Alabama is likely going to also be in the top 10. It would be a fight to argue for a 1-loss Oregon, Utah, Oklahoma, or Baylor over a 1-loss LSU or Alabama (or both).
5. Pac-12 sends a team. Oregon and Utah are both ahead of Oklahoma, so the winner of their game has an inside track to the final. It would take Baylor running the table to upset them in the order. I personally would rather see 4 conferences represented in the final, but I think the CFP judges are going to lean SEC based on precedent.
6. Big 12 sends a team. Will the winner of Oregon/Utah lose again? Sure, it's possible in the relatively competitively balanced Pac-12, but you also see that same problem in the Big 12. Again, a 1-loss Baylor or a 2-loss Oklahoma is not going to have much of a chance with the CFP.
7. Big 10 sends a second team. It's possible, but the scenarios have to play out just right. This requires a 2-loss Pac-12 champion, both Baylor and Oklahoma losing one more game, and disorder in the SEC to where a 1-loss Ohio State (the only plausible second team in the Big 10) would be ranked above the second potential SEC team (who would have to have 2 losses in this scenario, realistically).

[NWI_Irish96]

Playoff is incredibly likely to be:

1) Alabama-LSU winner vs 4) Alabama-LSU loser
2) Ohio State-Penn State winner vs 3) Clemson

Clemson isn't losing a game, and unless one of Alabama/LSU loses 2 or the OSU/PSU winner loses a game, both of which I think are pretty unlikely, the teams who already have a loss are shut out.

[nexus73]

Playoff is incredibly likely to be:

1) Alabama-LSU winner vs 4) Alabama-LSU loser
2) Ohio State-Penn State winner vs 3) Clemson

Clemson isn't losing a game, and unless one of Alabama/LSU loses 2 or the OSU/PSU winner loses a game, both of which I think are pretty unlikely, the teams who already have a loss are shut out.

Odds are you hit the nail on the head.  Where the fun comes in is when the hammer hits the thumb instead of the nail in terms of wild upsets all the way to the end of the regular season and conference championship games.  Some season endings go as predicted while others resemble a tornado in a trailer park.  Which do we get for 2019? 

Rick

[thspfc]

The committee doesn't have the stomach to do this, but I would love to see them stick Clemson at #4 (provided Alabama beats LSU, which I think will happen), so that it ensures there won't be another Bama/Clemson championship game.

[US 89]

The committee doesn't have the stomach to do this, but I would love to see them stick Clemson at #4 (provided Alabama beats LSU, which I think will happen), so that it ensures there won't be another Bama/Clemson championship game.

That's where they belong too. Assuming Clemson wins out they should get into the playoff by virtue of being undefeated, but they really haven't looked all that impressive compared to Alabama or even Ohio State. Whoever else gets into the CFP will at least have done something to prove themselves. Clemson has done nothing to prove themselves - it's not hard for a truly good team to run the table against the ACC, and they almost lost to UNC. All they've done this year is beat now-unranked Texas A&M, and the only thing they can do from here on out is beat whatever unranked team happens to be ahead of everybody else in the Coastal at the end of the year.

[thspfc]

My predictions:
1. 13-0 Alabama. (!)
2. 13-0 Ohio State. They have Penn State at home, making it very tough for PSU to win that game. They're going to beat Michigan and Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa handily after that.
3. 13-0 Clemson. It's not impossible that they could choke on NC State, Wake, or SC, but they should win out. Should.
4. 11-1 LSU. An 11-1 LSU (loss to Bama of course) is going to get in over an 11-2 SEC East champion, or 12-1 Big 12/Pac 12 champion. They wouldn't be the first one loss, non conference champion to get in - Ohio State in 2016 and Bama in 2017 also did it, and LSU's strength of schedule is much more impressive than those two teams.