Memphis and Saint Louis after a bad New Madrid earthquake

[bugo]

It won't just be the Mississippi River bridges that will be destroyed.  Many overpasses will collapse as well.  Roads will buckle, and rail lines will be damaged in many places.  The shit is going to hit the fucking fan with this one, folks.  It's going to be much worse than anybody is expecting.

[O Tamandua]

According to AHTD maps, there was once a rail ferry at Helena, AR.  The current maps don't show it, so I assume it was closed.

In 1972: http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/507/t/42151.aspx

There used to be a bunch of rail ferries on the Mississippi (including some not in this list); the last was apparently at Natchez-Vidalia (1982). If the bridges were taken out of service, they'd be the best bet for quick restoration of service. The main issue is getting trains down the bluffs to river level; this was usually done with steep inclines.

Hadn't thought about that.  I think there's actually a small tunnel right in Vicksburg on the KCS line.  Knowing how far above water the decks of these Mississippi River bridges have to be (as opposed to, say, the Arkansas, where the Union Pacific northbound-traffic St.Louis/Chicago - Texas mainline at Little Rock has had water lapping though not overtopping the bridge deck on its Baring Cross bridge in times of major flooding) if the opposing shore embankments collapse I should think those would be not easy to restore (though some engineers may easily prove me wrong)...as it is those will almost be the least of our concerns.

And as far as things "hitting the fan" you're right.  Back around 1990 there was a (made-for-TV?) high budget film about a devastating future earthquake in Los Angeles.  Bear in mind, CGI effects were still primitive compared to today, but the producers originally wanted the movie to take place in Memphis.  After research, they concluded: "No, we can't replicate the effects of what will happen there when the NM fault blows."

I live in Bella Vista, AR where there apparently is a fault on the east side of the village.  But every time I feel the ground shake (as it did twice during the Prague, Oklahoma quakes of 2011) I'm concerned that something has happened 300 miles east.

[bugo]

I felt 3 earthquakes in 2011.  It felt like my building was being shaken apart.  They lasted for about 45 seconds.

[kkt]

Engineered long-span bridges are usually less of a problem than the many, many ordinary buildings.  The midwest will be hit hard, because building codes have not been written with earthquakes in mind until recently, if at all.

[Grzrd]

If you've ever been to Union City, the first question that would come to your mind is, "What on earth is there to see from an observation tower?"
rte66man

The below photograph from this May 7 article gives a good sense of the view:

[rte66man]

If you've ever been to Union City, the first question that would come to your mind is, "What on earth is there to see from an observation tower?"
rte66man

The below photograph from this May 7 article gives a good sense of the view:

Nice photo, but I still don't know what there is to see.  I doubt it's tall enough to see to Reelfoot Lake.

rte66man

[mrose]

Probably a couple Ohio River crossings too. The old cantilever near Cairo (and the near identical one that crosses the Mississippi a mile to the west) both immediately come to mind. I'm scared shitless on bridges like that anyway.... an earthquake probably brings both of those down easily.

[Grzrd]

^ This June 2011 study discusses which bridges may collapse if there is another "big one" (page 22/112 of pdf; page 18 of document):

North of Memphis:
- I-155 in Dyersburg, Tennessee (75 miles north of Memphis) — This bridge is likely to collapse during an earthquake similar to the 1811-1812 events that occurred in the NMSZ.
- US 60/US 62 in Birds Point, Missouri and Cairo, Illinois (150 miles north of Memphis) — This bridge is likely to collapse during an earthquake similar to the 1811-1812 events that occurred in the NMSZ.
- I-57 in Charleston, Missouri, and Cairo, Illinois (156 miles north of Memphis) — This bridge is a four-lane structure that would likely remain after a major seismic event and would have to be paired with a bridge over the Ohio River to provide an alternate detour route. Possible bridges over the Ohio River that have a reasonable probability of remaining are the US 51 bridge located between Cairo, Illinois, and Wickliffe, Kentucky, or the I-24 bridge between Metropolis, Illinois and Paducah, Kentucky.
South of Memphis:
- US 49 in Helena, Arkansas (70 miles south of Memphis) — This bridge is likely to collapse during an earthquake similar to the 1811-1812 events that occurred in the NMSZ.
- US 82 / US 278 in Lake Village, Arkansas and Greenville, Mississippi (145 miles south of Memphis) — This bridge is a recently constructed four-lane bridge that was designed to the appropriate seismic design criteria.

In Memphis itself (pages 16-17/112 of pdf; pages 12-13 of document):

BNSF's Frisco Bridge — The Frisco Bridge will probably collapse during an earthquake similar to the 1811-1812 events that occurred in the NMSZ ....
Union Pacific's Harahan Bridge — The Harahan Bridge will probably collapse during an earthquake similar to the 1811-1812 events that occurred in the NMSZ ....
TDOT's I-55 Bridge - The I-55 Bridge will probably collapse during an earthquake similar to the 1811-1812 events that occurred in the NMSZ ....
TDOT's I-40 Bridge — The newest and most robust of the Memphis bridges, the 1973 Hernando DeSoto Bridge, is currently in the final stages of a seismic retrofit project designed to withstand an earthquake up to magnitude 7.7. It is expected that the bridge will be available for emergency responders and other aid workers immediately following a severe earthquake in the NMSZ. Of the four Memphis area bridges, the I-40 Bridge has the greatest chance of surviving an earthquake of the same magnitude as the 1811-1812events.

[O Tamandua]

Powerful find, Grzd.

Also from the document, on page 23/112 (regarding railroad traffic rerouting in the event of the aforementioned bridge collapses):

To determine the level of disruption and diversion caused by a closure of the rail bridges at Memphis, interviews were conducted with personnel from the two railroads that operate the UP and BNSF bridges.  Both of these rail carriers provided their emergency contingency plans for a bridge failure summarized as follows:

- UP: Divert rail traffic from Memphis to Salem, Illinois (interchange with CSX) and New Orleans (interchange with CSX, NSRR, CN).

- BNSF: Divert rail traffic from Memphis to Vicksburg, Mississippi (with CN) and Paducah, Kentucky (with CN).

It is estimated that rail diversion to the alternate routes would cause supply disruptions between 3 to 10 days per shipment due to additional handling and switching. If the bridge failures were due to a seismic event, the delays would be longer since the northern diversion routes would likely be damaged by the event also.

Tells me that, as mentioned before, they're expecting the older Thebes UP railroad bridge (crossing the Mississippi River just south of Cape Girardeau - on the map on page 23 it's represented along the next thickest line which parallels the Mississippi at the Missouri/Illinois border before entering into northeast Arkansas) to collapse or at least be seriously damaged as well.  And though the map on page 23 doesn't show it, I know that for the longest time there's been an significant exchange of railcars between Indianapolis (receiving freight from the east side of the Midwest plus the Northeast) and the UP yards at North Little Rock via the (current) CSX, to the UP at St. Elmo, IL (after the UP mainline from Chicago joins the CSX at nearby Altamont), then southward over the Thebes bridge to North Little Rock.

Translation: in the event of a major New Madrid quake there will be no railroad bridges for a while between south of St. Louis and north of Vicksburg, and if the St. Louis bridges are damaged the northerly limit might be either Bowling Green, MO or Fort Madison, IA.  That's at best (south of St. Louis) a near-450 mile as-the-crow-flies chunk of territory.

[Stephane Dumas]

That big quake will not only damage bridges, buildings, roads, railroads but from what I read at http://beforeitsnews.com/science-and-technology/2012/10/imminent-midwest-quake-to-unleash-nuclear-hell-2478270.html  nuclear plants located in the area as well. O_o

[O Tamandua]

I know this is a bit "random", but here is a link to the "trainorders" forum discussion about the UP/BNSF train wreck near Chaffee, MO yesterday. (All our friends who know highways...the newer bridge for that highway was indeed built DIRECTLY OVER the BNSF St. Louis/Memphis mainline and the aforementioned Union Pacific Chicago/St. Louis/(Indianapolis) - North Little Rock/Texas mainline diamond, where the railroads intersect - a "wye" between the two juts out slightly to the east.)

On this thread they mention how the old Missouri Pacific mainline between Poplar Bluff and St. Louis is now lightly trafficked apart from Amtrak's daily "Texas Eagle" trains.  I'm sure the reason is that (as I recall) there are tunnels in the Ozark Mountains highest hills in Missouri in that region, which would either have to be heightened or somehow "daylighted" for the taller trains to run.  Which means that unless the UP is doing just that, all their double stack container and auto rack trains must use the aforementioned Thebes bridge (which, sigh, will likely collapse in a significant New Madrid fault event) route.  Ouch.

[Grzrd]

This June 2011 study discusses which bridges may collapse if there is another "big one" (page 22/112 of pdf; page 18 of document):

North of Memphis:
• I-155 in Dyersburg, Tennessee (75 miles north of Memphis) – This bridge is likely to collapse during an earthquake similar to the 1811-1812 events that occurred in the NMSZ ....

This article about repairs being made to the I-155 bridge made me think of this thread because of the understated way it discusses the potential impact of a large earthquake on the bridge:

The I-155 Caruthersville Bridge is the northernmost bridge over the Lower Mississippi River, with the combined flow of the Upper Mississippi and the Ohio River ....
The Caruthersville Bridge sits in a geologically interesting place in that it is only 6 miles from the New Madrid Fault. A 1993/1994 study found that bedrock was located 2700 feet under the surface, so a significant earthquake event would almost certainly create severe liquefaction. The bridge as it stands would not hold up to liquefaction.

Otherwise, the article has some interesting historical and other information about the bridge.

[Wayward Memphian]

Flying over Northeast Arkansas in the spring when all the water is gone and the fields are barren, you can see the sand blows all over. For those that know how they formed, it truly is frightening, this ain't your California quake, this is where the land liquifies underneath you like giant quicksand lakes.  It's a fear you learn to live with, just like knowing when Blytheville was a SAC base, that the end would be quick via nuke strike.