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Will Chicago become 4th populous US City?

Started by roadman65, April 16, 2022, 09:29:19 AM

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roadman65

Was in Houston lately and of course it's not only the fourth largest US City in terms of population after NYC, LA, and Chicago, but a city that's grown many times over from its original small size.

Starting with a small circle beltway around now has two full beltways with a third being built. Bedroom communities that extend outward from the core, stem out almost 50 miles from Downtown Houston.  Heck I-45 is urban or suburban for 100 miles from its southern terminus in Galveston to The Woodlands northwest of Houston.  So it's evident that Houston area is growing along with the land within its large square miles of corporations.

Plus recent political demographics and changes many are choosing to make Houston their home and with the higher taxes in some parts of the US, they are flocking in groves to come to Houston live. Many are used to parking lot freeways so to wait two hours on the IH 45 is nothing to them especially if you used to commute I-405 in CA or I-495 on Long Island previously.

Last year I was conversing with a native Texan who believes the next census will move Chicago again from the third to fourth largest US city, and advancing Houston to the third spot.  Of course it was just a few decades ago where Chicago dropped from the second largest US city after New York to its present status when LA grew from its previous demos advancing it from number three to second to New York City.

With all that is constantly changing in the Houston City Limits shift it to the third US city in population next official count?
Every day is a winding road, you just got to get used to it.

Sheryl Crowe


Max Rockatansky

A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore.  That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

NWI_Irish96

Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

kernals12

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: kernals12 on April 16, 2022, 11:24:46 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.

Went up 1.9% on the 2020 census versus the 2010.

Brandon

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 16, 2022, 11:24:46 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.

Went up 1.9% on the 2020 census versus the 2010.

And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.
"If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention." - Ramsay Bolton

"Symbolic of his struggle against reality." - Reg

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: Brandon on April 16, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 16, 2022, 11:24:46 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.

Went up 1.9% on the 2020 census versus the 2010.

And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.

I seem to recall the gain in 2000 was fairly sizable and the loss just as much so I'm 2010.  There certainly is a long term decline, but not the Detroit level decline it would need to be for Houston to catch Chicago this next decade.

abefroman329

Quote from: Brandon on April 16, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 11:39:19 AM
Quote from: kernals12 on April 16, 2022, 11:24:46 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore. That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

Actually, it is now.

Went up 1.9% on the 2020 census versus the 2010.

And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.
Well, that would explain why my house is worth $100K more than it was worth four years ago...oh wait...

ZLoth

Quote from: roadman65 on April 16, 2022, 09:29:19 AM
Was in Houston lately and of course it's not only the fourth largest US City in terms of population after NYC, LA, and Chicago, but a city that's grown many times over from its original small size.

Starting with a small circle beltway around now has two full beltways with a third being built. Bedroom communities that extend outward from the core, stem out almost 50 miles from Downtown Houston.  Heck I-45 is urban or suburban for 100 miles from its southern terminus in Galveston to The Woodlands northwest of Houston.  So it's evident that Houston area is growing along with the land within its large square miles of corporations.

I'm going to challenge this statement partially "city comparison" is a bit of a misnomer, and you are better off comparing Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Why?

The biggest challenge that I have is that you are ignoring the suburbs that are attached to the cities. Houston has, for example, Midtown, Sugarland, Montrose, Pearland, Nassau Bay, Katy, and the Woodlands. All those folks would consider themselves part of the Houston area, and would probably say they are from Houston when talking to people who live out of the area. Likewise with the folks in many other major cities. (I live in Richardson, TX which is ⅔ in Dallas County, but say I'm from "Dallas", and previously I would say "Sacramento" when I actually lived in Citrus Heights which was part of Sacramento County.) Texas is one of the growing states, so families are more likely to move to the suburbs of a city rather than the city itself for affordability reasons.

The solution, for the most part, is to utilize the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) which includes the suburbs that are attached to the major cities. When we take a look at the 2021 estimates for the top five MSAs:

  • New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA - 19,768,458 (includes NYC of 8,622,357)
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA - 12,997,353 (includes Los Angeles of 4,085,014)
  • Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA - 9,509,934 (includes Chicago of 2,670,406)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA - 7,759,615 (includes Dallas of 1,400,337, Fort Worth of 958,692, and Arlington of 401,047)
  • Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA - 7,206,841 (includes Houston of 2,378,146)
Unfortunately, this also leads to the combining of Dallas and Fort Worth. :) For reference, Houston's population is between the states of #15 Tennessee (7,001,803) and #14 Arizona (7,640,796). Also, it is estimated that the top three MSAs lost population while DFW and Houston MSAs gained population.

And, if we look at the 2020-2021 Television Market size in terms of number of television households:

  • New York - 7,452,620
  • Los Angeles - 5,735,230
  • Chicago - 3,471,560
  • Philadelphia - 2,997,360
  • Dallas-Ft. Worth - 2,962,520
  • San Francisco-Oak-San Jose - 2,653,270
  • Atlanta - 2,648,970
  • Houston - 2,569,900
  • Washington DC (Hagrstwn) - 2,565,580
  • Boston (Manchester) - 2,489,620
(There was no release of the 2021-2022 television markets. If there was, I firmly believe that DFW would have been the #4 market, and Philadelphia the #5 market.)

I personally have no desire to live in either Houston or Chicago. Maybe I had bad luck that day, but in 2017 when I stuck in Houston for 24 hours due to a missed flight over fourth of July weekend, it was in the 90s in both temperature and humidity. And Chicago is known for their harsh and cold winters. Three years ago, I moved to north Dallas, and it was a extremely stressful experience that I have no desire in repeating.

Quote from: abefroman329 on April 16, 2022, 12:50:36 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 16, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.
Well, that would explain why my house is worth $100K more than it was worth four years ago...oh wait...

It would be better to express it as a percentage of gain rather than a fixed value. My home has gone up an estimated $175k in the past three years, which is a value gain of about 48.6%. The high demand for homes, the low mortgage rates, and the very low housing inventory has pushed up the prices of homes. And, with supply chain issues, they aren't even doing two-story homes at the moment.
I'm an Engineer. That means I solve problems. Not problems like "What is beauty?", because that would fall within the purview of your conundrums of philosophy. I solve practical problems and call them "paychecks".

abefroman329

#9
Quote from: ZLoth on April 16, 2022, 02:35:38 PM
Quote from: roadman65 on April 16, 2022, 09:29:19 AM
Was in Houston lately and of course it's not only the fourth largest US City in terms of population after NYC, LA, and Chicago, but a city that's grown many times over from its original small size.

Starting with a small circle beltway around now has two full beltways with a third being built. Bedroom communities that extend outward from the core, stem out almost 50 miles from Downtown Houston.  Heck I-45 is urban or suburban for 100 miles from its southern terminus in Galveston to The Woodlands northwest of Houston.  So it's evident that Houston area is growing along with the land within its large square miles of corporations.

I'm going to challenge this statement partially "city comparison" is a bit of a misnomer, and you are better off comparing Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Why?

The biggest challenge that I have is that you are ignoring the suburbs that are attached to the cities. Houston has, for example, Midtown, Sugarland, Montrose, Pearland, Nassau Bay, Katy, and the Woodlands. All those folks would consider themselves part of the Houston area, and would probably say they are from Houston when talking to people who live out of the area. Likewise with the folks in many other major cities. (I live in Richardson, TX which is ⅔ in Dallas County, but say I'm from "Dallas", and previously I would say "Sacramento" when I actually lived in Citrus Heights which was part of Sacramento County.) Texas is one of the growing states, so families are more likely to move to the suburbs of a city rather than the city itself for affordability reasons.

The solution, for the most part, is to utilize the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) which includes the suburbs that are attached to the major cities. When we take a look at the 2021 estimates for the top five MSAs:

  • New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA - 19,768,458 (includes NYC of 8,622,357)
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA - 12,997,353 (includes Los Angeles of 4,085,014)
  • Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA - 9,509,934 (includes Chicago of 2,670,406)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA - 7,759,615 (includes Dallas of 1,400,337, Fort Worth of 958,692, and Arlington of 401,047)
  • Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA - 7,206,841 (includes Houston of 2,378,146)
Unfortunately, this also leads to the combining of Dallas and Fort Worth. :) For reference, Houston's population is between the states of #15 Tennessee (7,001,803) and #14 Arizona (7,640,796). Also, it is estimated that the top three MSAs lost population while DFW and Houston MSAs gained population.

And, if we look at the 2020-2021 Television Market size in terms of number of television households:

  • New York - 7,452,620
  • Los Angeles - 5,735,230
  • Chicago - 3,471,560
  • Philadelphia - 2,997,360
  • Dallas-Ft. Worth - 2,962,520
  • San Francisco-Oak-San Jose - 2,653,270
  • Atlanta - 2,648,970
  • Houston - 2,569,900
  • Washington DC (Hagrstwn) - 2,565,580
  • Boston (Manchester) - 2,489,620
(There was no release of the 2021-2022 television markets. If there was, I firmly believe that DFW would have been the #4 market, and Philadelphia the #5 market.)

I personally have no desire to live in either Houston or Chicago. Maybe I had bad luck that day, but in 2017 when I stuck in Houston for 24 hours due to a missed flight over fourth of July weekend, it was in the 90s in both temperature and humidity. And Chicago is known for their harsh and cold winters. Three years ago, I moved to north Dallas, and it was a extremely stressful experience that I have no desire in repeating.

Quote from: abefroman329 on April 16, 2022, 12:50:36 PM
Quote from: Brandon on April 16, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
And then it promptly lost much of that gain 2020-2022.  I quite expect Illinois as a state to continue its losses from the past decade.
Well, that would explain why my house is worth $100K more than it was worth four years ago...oh wait...

It would be better to express it as a percentage of gain rather than a fixed value. My home has gone up an estimated $175k in the past three years, which is a value gain of about 48.6%. The high demand for homes, the low mortgage rates, and the very low housing inventory has pushed up the prices of homes. And, with supply chain issues, they aren't even doing two-story homes at the moment.
True. My home is worth about 33% more, which may not be much, but if people were fleeing Chicago the way the Trump supporters say they are, it wouldn't have appreciated at all.

[Edited to remove incendiary political language. -S.]

Scott5114

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on April 16, 2022, 09:34:46 AM
A half million population gap isn't something Houston is going to close in a decade, especially since Chicago isn't losing population anymore.  That said, Houston has the advantage of being a much larger city area wise over Chicago and will surpass it's population eventually.

I think there's a lot of chances for Texas to go off the rails before that happens. Texans nearly always have this attitude that Texas is the best state and everyone should do things like Texas and blah blah blah but it means that when something is rotten in the state of Texas they have blinders on and don't realize anyone from out-of-state would consider it a problem. Things like ERCOT fumbling the response to that ice storm last year and leaving the state in the dark for days shows that the Texas way of doing things isn't all it's cracked up to be. There's been no fix implemented to those problems. Also, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems (which you can say about a lot of states, but Texas is such a large state that it has a much greater impact than whatever nonsense emanates from Oklahoma City or Santa Fe). There's no way I would ever want to live in Texas. Even visiting for more than about 3 days or so and I'm ready to get the hell out.

Another thing that could spell trouble for Houston in particular is that much of its economy revolves around oil. Oil usage is going to drop dramatically in our lifetimes; it may take 10 years, it may take 50 years, but the writing is on the wall. Now, Houston has a diverse enough economy it's not going to turn into Detroit when the oil business contracts, but it is likely to curb growth to something that will keep it in 4th place.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

kphoger

To be fair, Scott, you do seem to have a particular chip on your shoulder about Texas...
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

Scott5114

Quote from: kphoger on April 16, 2022, 06:38:07 PM
To be fair, Scott, you do seem to have a particular chip on your shoulder about Texas...

I'm obligated to under the Oklahoma constitution. :P
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

jgb191

#13
A fact lost on many people:  the city of Houston DID in fact lose population for nearly a half-decade in the late 1980s.  The 1986 population was 1.728 million and the 1990 population was down to 1.629 million.  This explains the meager net-gain from the 1980 census to that of 1990 of only 34,000.

My initial hope (decades ago) was the Houston would have already overtaken Chicago before 2020, given the latter's population kept declining.  But Chicago's population has been bouncing up and down like a basketball since the start of this millennium up until now.  In seven decades, Houston's population went from less than 600K (1950) to 2.3 million (2020) -- an average of almost a quarter-million gain per decade.  By the 2030 census, Houston is on pace to have exceeded 2.5 million.  So I would say in just over a decade from now (assuming Chicago's population keeps hovering around 2.7 million), Houston will have finally caught up to Chicago.
We're so far south that we're not even considered "The South"

bandit957

Big cities in general have declined just since 2020.
Might as well face it, pooing is cool

HighwayStar

Very hard to say. I think the bigger variable here is what happens to Chicago. I could see a major exodus if we have a return to 70's/80's crime levels and people decide to leave.
Houston is going to see a lot of area growth which is not actually in the city limits.
There are those who travel, and those who travel well

abefroman329

Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?

I'm friends with my realtor and he is constantly selling houses in NW IN to people coming over from Cook County. Mostly from the S and SW suburbs but a few from the city.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

abefroman329

Quote from: cabiness42 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:05 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?

I'm friends with my realtor and he is constantly selling houses in NW IN to people coming over from Cook County. Mostly from the S and SW suburbs but a few from the city.
...and?

TheHighwayMan3561

Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:59 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:05 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?

I'm friends with my realtor and he is constantly selling houses in NW IN to people coming over from Cook County. Mostly from the S and SW suburbs but a few from the city.
...and?

I can't speak for everybody, but I would think a lot of people moving within their metro area is due to a desire to have more space for a growing family. Cheaper land may come into play with that as they'll need to reallocate financial resources to raise kids with.
self-certified as the dumbest person on this board for 5 years running

Flint1979

Even if Houston does pass Chicago it doesn't have the density or the suburban population that Chicago does. Houston is about 3 times bigger than Chicago area wise and Chicago has more population in the suburbs than Houston does too. Harris County might have 4.7 million people compared to Cook County's 5.3 million but the difference in land area comes into play here too.

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:59 PM
Quote from: cabiness42 on April 17, 2022, 04:19:05 PM
Quote from: abefroman329 on April 17, 2022, 04:16:03 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on April 16, 2022, 04:48:29 PMAlso, the Texas government seems to be more interested in chasing after nonsense political points rather than actually finding ways to improve the state and fix its problems
Which is exactly why I find it hard to believe that people are fleeing Illinois because of "taxes" or "crime" or "corruption" - taxes tend to be a wash when you move to another state, crime isn't nearly as bad as some would have you believe, and, well, if you're so offended by corruption, why are you moving to a state that's effectively under one-party rule?

I'm friends with my realtor and he is constantly selling houses in NW IN to people coming over from Cook County. Mostly from the S and SW suburbs but a few from the city.
...and?

Most are citing property taxes as the reason. That and a shift to remote work that allows them to live farther from the office.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

triplemultiplex

While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.  That's going to take a toll on some folks to the point where I think Houston metro's population plateaus mid-century. 

Geographically, the city has gotten to the point where more sprawl brings diminishing returns for those driving that growth and they will start to look elsewhere for another city they can turn into an endless wasteland of strip malls and McMansions. 

Or maybe Houston annexes their way into #3 and defies my armchair prediction. :P
"That's just like... your opinion, man."

HighwayStar

Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.  That's going to take a toll on some folks to the point where I think Houston metro's population plateaus mid-century. 

Geographically, the city has gotten to the point where more sprawl brings diminishing returns for those driving that growth and they will start to look elsewhere for another city they can turn into an endless wasteland of strip malls and McMansions. 

Or maybe Houston annexes their way into #3 and defies my armchair prediction. :P

Yeah what a terrible wasteland, big nice houses and tons of shopping, its awful!  :-D
There are those who travel, and those who travel well

Rothman



Quote from: HighwayStar on April 18, 2022, 05:57:11 PM
Quote from: triplemultiplex on April 18, 2022, 05:53:43 PM
While it would be unlikely to have an other Hurricane Harvey in current lifetimes, Houston is bound to get slammed by more hurricanes and their respective massive flooding potential.  That's going to take a toll on some folks to the point where I think Houston metro's population plateaus mid-century. 

Geographically, the city has gotten to the point where more sprawl brings diminishing returns for those driving that growth and they will start to look elsewhere for another city they can turn into an endless wasteland of strip malls and McMansions. 

Or maybe Houston annexes their way into #3 and defies my armchair prediction.

Yeah what a terrible wasteland, big nice houses and tons of shopping, its awful!  :-D

Nice flooded houses and flooded shopping...
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.



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