It's the I-81 corridor from Pulaski to Watertown that gets the worst of it.
I’d go all the way down to 481 on that assessment. I’ve seen plenty of heavy lake-effect bands in Central Square and Cicero. The right northwesterly wind will even drag it into Syracuse proper.
I had to turn around one night (Dec 28th or 29th 1997) at the I-81 Cortland exit (NY 13) because of snow. I-81 was closed north of there. Was forced to go onto NY 13. I nearly got stuck trying to make a U-turn to get to the ramp for I-81 south. Silly me was trying to go to Ottawa (from Philadelphia), It got really bad very quickly going north from Binghamton.
So I drove back to Philadelphia. Got back there about 10 PM. That night the 11 PM Philadelphia local news showed footage of the snow in Syracuse-Cortland area.
I did eventually go to Ottawa a couple years later. This time in October.