Hurricane Irene

[Michael in Philly]

Wonder why none of the cable news / weather channels are talking about the dams and levees in the affected areas?  Are there any structures that are vulnerable to the type of failure we saw in New Orleans? 

One anecdote I remember hearing about - I think - the '38 hurricane concerned a beaver dam in New Jersey that under ordinary circumstances would have been a nuisance, but as it happened saved the lives of a lot of folks by protecting a heavily-populated area from flooding.  Apparently, the beavers worked like little soldiers right through the blow, keeping their dam in place.

Well, I'm pretty sure there's no place that has the particular vulnerability New Orleans does, that of being below sea level.  Low enough to be affected by a 10- or 15-foot storm surge is another story.

And of course reservoirs have dams.  Enough rain in a reservoir with a week dam could cause major trouble:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnstown_Flood

[berberry]

And of course reservoirs have dams.  Enough rain in a reservoir with a week dam could cause major trouble:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnstown_Flood

I can't imagine we're going to see anything like Johnstown, but something like New Orleans would seem possible.  I've heard, although I don't know for sure, that parts of Boston are below sea level.  The question I meant to ask was whether anyone knows of any particular vulnerabilities in critical structures that exist in the predicted path of this storm.  Are there any danger areas we should watch for as the hurricane moves through, like the failure of a particular levee, dam, lock, bridge, etc?

We knew about the vulnerability in New Orleans ahead of time, at least here in this region of the country.  That specific failure had been predicted decades ago.  I'm just wondering if there's anything even remotely comparable in the forecast area?

[Stephane Dumas]

I spotted this article from Popular Mechanics http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/natural-disasters/what-happens-when-a-super-storm-strikes-new-york-6323032?click=pm_news via the Skyscraperpage forum http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=5391455&postcount=12  it show a map of NYC with possible flooding areas depending of the category.

[jgb191]

People are saying this will be a "historical storm".  It might be historical in that it will cover the most densely populated area of the nation.....from the VA coast to the NH coast, including the Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston areas.  More people will be affected from this storm than any other storm we've seen.  Let's be glad the winds remain less than 100 MPH making it a moderate hurricane in strength.

[Desert Man]

The Carolinas, esp. the Cape Fear/Hatteras and Outer Banks regions, feels Irene's wrath tonight...expect Irene to make another landfall on the Jersey shore (there will be serious storm surge in Delaware-Maryland and Virginia), then head into Long Island not far from New York city and finally a weak category 1 storm in Connecticut, already on land near Boston. The real concerns from Hurricane Irene are 10-15 feet storm surge on sea level, esp. the barrier islands consist of beach sand is entirely unsafe during a hurricane. Also to report the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial statute was expected to open in washington DC this weekend, now cancelled by stormy weather to a later date. 

[Alex]

This guy is streaming from Morehead City, NC right now:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-severe-weather-webcam#utm_campaign=synclickback&source=http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1903&page=1#commenttop&medium=4301091

[Brandon]

People are saying this will be a "historical storm".  It might be historical in that it will cover the most densely populated area of the nation.....from the VA coast to the NH coast, including the Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston areas.  More people will be affected from this storm than any other storm we've seen.  Let's be glad the winds remain less than 100 MPH making it a moderate hurricane in strength.

In a hurricane this size, the winds matter far less than the storm surge.  A hurricane this big will have a surge a full 2 categories above its wind speed.  Remember Ike back in 2008?  Or Katrina in 2005?  Each had far higher surges due to their sheer size.  Irene is going to be just as bad when it comes to the storm surge.

[wriddle082]

Today in Columbia, SC, it was a bit breezier than normal, temp was a little bit lower, and clouds picked up later in the day.  Not a drop of rain.  Local weather folks said rain was only expected east of I-95.  Myrtle Beach had high winds and tall waves, but they will probably be over with sometime tomorrow.

[jgb191]

Yeah the North Carolina coast is going to feel the worst of that storm surge, which could be 20-25 foot high surge, but the cold waters and land will keep it's intensity in check along it's track along the East coast....maybe a category one.  By the time it gets to NYC and New England areas, rainfall will be the biggest issue.

[Michael in Philly]

A point of information, and a vent:

The point of information:  Channel 6 in Philadelphia (I watched the 11:00 news) is calling for a second landfall - after the storm passes over eastern North Carolina and goes back out to sea - at Atlantic City, I forget what time - either in the middle of the night Saturday/Sunday or early Sunday morning.  No idea how good that forecast is.

The vent, albeit a small one:  It's been a little frustrating figuring out what to expect in my neighborhood, and hence whether to stay put or to take an inland road trip.  National media are focusing on coastal areas and New York City.  (Which I completely understand.)  Which is why I watched the local news - I rarely do that.

I'm in a ground-floor rear apartment, so I have the patio/garden.  My floor's well above the patio level, so I'm not worried about flooding indoors.  And as a tenant, the basement's not my problem (assuming I can get my laundry done before the storm!)  But I'm three blocks from the Schuylkill River, which it doesn't take much to flood, and they're confidently predicting flooding.  We've already had a lot of rain this month - the rainiest month here on record, in fact - so they keep emphasizing that the ground's saturated and any rain at all will turn into flood water.  But does that affect me in Center City, where the surface is mostly buildings, pavement and the like (my "garden" is actually a brick-walled brick patio)? 

I'm concerned about a tree or branch falling on my car, and a power outage - the power lines are actually above ground in this neighborhood - would be a pain in the butt.  So hang out and hope the power stays on, or hit the Turnpike and spend tomorrow night in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Niagara Falls (which would require finding my passport - well, it wouldn't require it obviously, but might as well set foot in Ontario while I was up there)?  But flooding would peak Sunday night or Monday, and if the power goes out it might still be out when I came back....

Just thinking out loud, I guess, but any reactions are welcome....

[Alps]

I'm following weather.gov and assuming that, like Carmageddon, they're broadcasting the worst to get people out of there so that when it's not as bad as they say, the actual damage will be even more minimized and we can just go on living.

[PAHighways]

Governor Corbett has declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties of Pennsylvania.  For counties west of the Appalachians, it is to put emergency workers and utility crews on stand-by in case they are needed in the east.

For those with DIRECTV, they have created the Hurricane Irene informational channel which is broadcasting on 259, 325, and 349 and carries coverage from local stations in the path.

[Stephane Dumas]

If (and it's a big "if") an hurricane of a impact bigger then planned happens. I wonder if a dam of a similar kind like the one at St.Petersbourg in Russia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg_Dam might be useful to reduce the impact?

[Alex]

They turned the MD 528 at 65th Street traffic cam in Ocean City, MD to face the Atlantic:
http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.asp?feed=e0002c470097007b00488436cf235d0a

[Duke87]

I'm following weather.gov and assuming that, like Carmageddon, they're broadcasting the worst to get people out of there so that when it's not as bad as they say, the actual damage will be even more minimized and we can just go on living.

Or more like they're just covering their asses. Nobody wants to be the next Bush after Katrina.

Especially in New York, where the city got blindsided by a huge blizzard this past Christmas, they don't want to repeat that mistake.

MTA is shutting down the entire subway system and communter rail lines.

[froggie]

@Brandon:  Katrina's storm surge was huge not because of the size of the storm, but because it had been a Cat 5 the day before landfall.  Your claim that "a hurricane this big will have a surge a full 2 categories above its wind speed" is a misnomer.  It depends not just on the size of the fetch area (i.e. storm size), but the winds.  A wind of 90MPH isn't going to generate as big a surge as a 110MPH wind over the same area, no matter how large the storm.

I've long suspected, and am now certain, that the media (CNN and TWC in particular) have been overhyping this storm FAR MORE than is necessary.  Yes, some damage and some flooding will occur (some has already occurred in Virginia Beach).  But the predictions of gloom-and-doom coming to naught are going to turn a lot of people off to future warnings from future storms which might actually bear out.

Meanwhile, reading through the Twitters, the CBBT has been closed.  Maryland's Bay Bridge is still open, but they expect to close it when the winds hit 55 MPH.  WMATA plans on operating a normal Saturday schedule, so the trains will run until 3am.  There's some possibility that they'll shut down the above-ground sections of Metrorail if the winds are higher than forecast, though.

[Michael in Philly]

....I've long suspected, and am now certain, that the media (CNN and TWC in particular) have been overhyping this storm FAR MORE than is necessary....

Don't take this the wrong way, but what is your basis for making that claim (particular expertise, etc.)?  And do you mean they've been knowingly exaggerating, or just that it's not turning out as bad as the worst-case scenario they were trying to prepare people for?

[J N Winkler]

The sensationalist nature of the media coverage is very corrupting--it frames the Irene story as a sort of gladiatorial combat between humanity and the weather, and encourages audiences (especially in parts of the country not directly affected by the storm) to be disappointed when the hurricane fails to kill and destroy to the extent advertised.

I am beginning to see the appeal of a sort of Hays code for weather reporting.

[xcellntbuy]

The sensationalist nature of the media coverage is very corrupting--it frames the Irene story as a sort of gladiatorial combat between humanity and the weather, and encourages audiences (especially in parts of the country not directly affected by the storm) to be disappointed when the hurricane fails to kill and destroy to the extent advertised.

I am beginning to see the appeal of a sort of Hays code for weather reporting.

I like the succinctness and eloquence of your assessments.

[SSOWorld]

How else are TV Stations going to make money.  More drama = more viewers = MORE ADVERTISING DOLLARS 

[/crazy moment]

[froggie]

MD SHA is tweeting that they've closed the Bay Bridge due to high winds.

Apparently, the James River Bridge (US 17) in Newport News had remained open, but is now closed as well.

[Michael in Philly]

How else are TV Stations going to make money.  More drama = more viewers = MORE ADVERTISING DOLLARS 

[/crazy moment]

How are you going to sell advertising time on this in advance?  Particularly enough to make up for advertising sold on the sporting events that are being preempted?

[NE2]

MD SHA is tweeting that they've closed the Bay Bridge due to high winds.

And the AP (or NBC Washington when selecting a photo?) confuses the bridge with the bridge-tunnel: http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/High-Winds-Shut-Down-Bay-Bridge-128538028.html

[Michael in Philly]

Three manholes blew out a few blocks away, according to the TV.  (I heard it from here, but assumed it was loud thunder.)  Cause undetermined.  No, midwesterners-who-think-this-is-being-made-up-for-viewership, I'm not panicking, just been trying to figure out how to avoid inconveniences like trees falling on my car or long power outages.  Said midwesterners are perfectly welcome to join us here.

[froggie]

Said midwesterner is sitting in DC already enjoying the storm in progress...