Under the Radar: Darkhorse small cities that could one day be very big

[Stephane Dumas]

I spotted this interesting thread on Skyscraperpage forums about small cities that could be one day be very big due to some factors like explotations of ressources, geographical location
like Red Deer AB half-way between Edmonton and Calgary, or Guelph between Toronto and Kitchener-Waterloo or improved access to some areas who have growth opportunities like the Okanagan Valley. http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=228981

[Max Rockatansky]

I can see Flagstaff, AZ passing 100,000 residents in the next couple decades.  The city has been booming for awhile and is actually quite strikingly different than Phoenix or Tucson.

[TheArkansasRoadgeek]

I could envision Texarkana becoming big. (Who cares about NWA at this point? Fayetteville is doing well for themselves)!

[nexus73]

Bend/Redmond/Prineville OR looks to be a prime candidate for such an event in Oregon.  Medford OR and the surrounding cities of Grants Pass to the north with Phoenix and Ashland to the south have plenty of room to fill in the gaps between them while the distances are small.

Rick

[US 89]

I could see St. George, UT in that position. Many things have already happened to illustrate its high growth, including:
There is a new regional airport with flights on Delta, United, and American.
The Southern Parkway (UT-7) is a new freeway to the airport which could become a focus for future development.
They are planning to 6-lane I-15 through St. George.

Not much room for development to the north and west due to mountains, but there's a lot of room to the northeast towards Hurricane along the SR-9 Corridor.

[bandit957]

Cities with strong labor unions will probably grow faster.

[Max Rockatansky]

Cities with strong labor unions will probably grow faster.

Care to qualify that statement?  I saw that because almost all Mid-Western cities that are on the decline had huge blue collar based labor unions.  There certainly is some causality in the automotive sector with jobs being pushed overseas due to inflated union workforce payroll figures.

A better question would be is there any under the radar Mid-West cities that are actually growing quickly?  Indianapolis is the only big city I can think of off the top of my head that has had significant growth in the last couple decades. 

[bandit957]

Care to qualify that statement?

Nobody wants to live in a city where a bunch of corporate thugs bust the unions.

[Max Rockatansky]

Care to qualify that statement?

Nobody wants to live in a city where a bunch of corporate thugs bust the unions.

You sure about that?  Last I checked most of the migration in the US was to the Sunbelt and West Coast.  I don't think many name companies are about Union busting in terms of how it was done in the old days.  Workers protection laws have really have replaced the role of unions in regards to workplace rights.  The primary reason why labor unions got so big in the US in the early 20th century was because companies really did do some really shady, dangerous, and outright awful things to their employees.  There is no way modern companies could get away with stuff like the big collar companies used to with how laws have changed domestically. 

[bing101]

Cities with strong labor unions will probably grow faster.

Care to qualify that statement?  I saw that because almost all Mid-Western cities that are on the decline had huge blue collar based labor unions.  There certainly is some causality in the automotive sector with jobs being pushed overseas due to inflated union workforce payroll figures.

A better question would be is there any under the radar Mid-West cities that are actually growing quickly?  Indianapolis is the only big city I can think of off the top of my head that has had significant growth in the last couple decades.

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2013/5/7/1207524/-Shift-Change anybody seen Worker co-ops movie like Shift Change. Well Cleveland was cited for having the Evergreen co-op it was an attempt to revive the economy in Ohio though at the time of film.

[LM117]

Greenville, NC comes to mind. It recently surpassed 90,000 and is set to reach 100,000 within the next decade.

[The Nature Boy]

Greenville, NC comes to mind. It recently surpassed 90,000 and is set to reach 100,000 within the next decade.

Greenville's growth is tied closely to ECU and Vidant so it'll probably top out at just over 100,000. I'm not sure what industries they can attract to drive further growth since they have to compete with RTP for top tier tech companies. Right now, it's benefiting greatly from a low COL that will surely be going up in a few years. The upcoming mayoral election is going to be an interesting barometer on where the city's residents see it going and what growth policies they support.

[DandyDan]

I would be inclined to think any city with a major state university has a shot at getting huge one day, especially if located next to an interstate. In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point. Ames may eventually fuse with Des Moines.

[TravelingBethelite]

I would be inclined to think any city with a major state university has a shot at getting huge one day, especially if located next to an interstate. In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point. Ames may eventually fuse with Des Moines.

On that note, I seem to think that Columbia, MO, and Lincoln, NE, seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.

[dvferyance]

I would go with Sioux Falls SD. It went from 120,000 in 2000 up to about 170,000 today. I could see it surpassing 200,000 within 10 years. If you count that big.

[Road Hog]

I could envision Texarkana becoming big. (Who cares about NWA at this point? Fayetteville is doing well for themselves)!

In the sci-fi novel "A Canticle for Leibowitz," Texarkana becomes the major city-state in the post-apocalyptic civilization that arises from America's ashes.

[michravera]

Care to qualify that statement?

Nobody wants to live in a city where a bunch of corporate thugs bust the unions.

... and nobody *CAN* live in a city where a bunch of union thugs have busted the corporations!

Unions and corporations need to realize that, to a large extent, what is good for one is good for the other. No profits mean no jobs. Decent profits mean decent wages. Don't give away your ass, but don't ask the other guy to give away the store. Get the best deal that you can, but don't go busting.

[The Nature Boy]

I would be inclined to think any city with a major state university has a shot at getting huge one day, especially if located next to an interstate. In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point. Ames may eventually fuse with Des Moines.

On that note, I seem to think that Columbia, MO, and Lincoln, NE, seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.

This effect seems dulled in New England. While Burlington, Vermont has seen growth around UVM, UNH and Maine haven't brought the same to Durham and Orono. The area around Durham has seen growth but that's tied to the continued sprawl of Boston.

Universities drive growth in Boston but not in Amherst. Of course, Boston has Harvard, MIT, BC and BU. 

[vdeane]

Decent profits mean decent wages.

If it did, wages would be higher than they are now.

Of course, where one WANTS to live tends to take a back seat to where one can find work.  If I had my way, I would have never moved out of Rochester after college.  Unfortunately, life had other plans.

[Revive 755]

In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point.

IMHO, there's been an exurban feel between Cedar Rapids and North Liberty for years now - old 965 may not be heavily urbanized, but it's got more developments than, say US 6 east of Iowa City to West Liberty.

Iowa City also seems to be making a strong effort to grow out to the Hoover Highway interchange on I-80.

On that note, I seem to think that Columbia, MO, and Lincoln, NE, seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.

Lincoln is doing extremely well.  I would not be surprised if the population was over 300,000 by the 2020 census.

[The Nature Boy]

Decent profits mean decent wages.

If it did, wages would be higher than they are now.

Of course, where one WANTS to live tends to take a back seat to where one can find work.  If I had my way, I would have never moved out of Rochester after college.  Unfortunately, life had other plans.

+1

If I had my way, I'd still be in New Hampshire. But you know, limited job opportunities being what they are......

[Duke87]

A real "dark horse" might be a city that grows a lot for reasons we might not currently expect.

Past examples of this would be Las Vegas and Phoenix. Go back 60-70 years and these cities were a lot smaller than today, and it probably was not anticipated that they would grow into what they are today. But, the proliferation of air conditioning has dramatically increased the willingness of many to live in these kinds of desert cities, and the fact that it's just about always sunny makes them attractive.


So a good question to ask might be... what cities are in an area that is currently not heavily populated but might become more attractive due to an advancement in technology?

[The Nature Boy]

A real "dark horse" might be a city that grows a lot for reasons we might not currently expect.

Past examples of this would be Las Vegas and Phoenix. Go back 60-70 years and these cities were a lot smaller than today, and it probably was not anticipated that they would grow into what they are today. But, the proliferation of air conditioning has dramatically increased the willingness of many to live in these kinds of desert cities, and the fact that it's just about always sunny makes them attractive.


So a good question to ask might be... what cities are in an area that is currently not heavily populated but might become more attractive due to an advancement in technology?

Funny you mention that. I think that both cities are due for a decline, especially as water becomes more scarce and droughts more common. The American Southwest is an ecological nightmare and we probably shouldn't have settled it as densely as we did. We'll probably look back on that in about a century or so and realize our mistake.

But yeah, predicting boom towns is always a fool's game. You never know what's going to catch on and why.

[sparker]

I would posit that the Spokane-Coeur d'Alene corridor will become one of the western U.S.' faster growing metroplexes in the not-too-distant future; already a number of tech companies (including several friends from the audio industry) have relocated to the area (Hayden, ID is a hotbed of such).  Winters, while cold, aren't too severe (the worst local weather happens to the west between Spokane and the Columbia River) -- and a nice area for winter sports.  Good for warehousing (close RR service) as well as manufacturing, plenty of water, and a relatively benign political atmosphere (the Hayden Lake neo-Nazis seem to have scattered).  Besides, it's pretty damn scenic -- the mountains and all that water does help!   

[michravera]

Decent profits mean decent wages.

If it did, wages would be higher than they are now.

Of course, where one WANTS to live tends to take a back seat to where one can find work.  If I had my way, I would have never moved out of Rochester after college.  Unfortunately, life had other plans.

+1

If I had my way, I'd still be in New Hampshire. But you know, limited job opportunities being what they are......

The economic truth is that one of three things happen:
1) people get paid what they are worth
2) jobs are candidates for automation or elimination
3) Companies go out of business

Ronald Reagan made a point in the 1980s that the position of "Theater Usher" has all but been eliminated because of the minimum wage. He ponied that "I can assure you that it isn't because people enjoy finding their way to their seats in the dark!"