For 2017, it looks like we have three obvious retirement candidates (Harvey, Irma, and Maria), and one possible retirement candidate (Nate). Could 2017 be tied for #2 with 1955, 1995, and 2004 with four names retired? Nate is probably the wildcard for retirement, due to the death toll in Central America, causing a similar death toll to Otto last year in the same area which was retired. The damage in the U.S. for Nate, while not as bad as the other three, was still pretty significant at $2.5 billion, and less damaging storms have had their names retired in the past.
And yes, I know I posted this thread at A.net as well.
I'm also thinking that Katia is possible considering that it hit Mexico days after an earthquake hit the southern portion of the country. Obviously I am unsure how confident I feel on that.
Quote from: 74/171FAN on October 11, 2017, 04:11:04 PM
I'm also thinking that Katia is possible considering that it hit Mexico days after an earthquake hit the southern portion of the country. Obviously I am unsure how confident I feel on that.
Mexico has a pretty poor record of retiring names, so I wouldn't count on it.
Percentages...
Arlene: 0%
Bret 1%
Cindy 3%
Don 5%
Emily 1%
Franklin 15%
Gert 10%
Harvey 100% - RETIRED
Irma 100% - RETIRED
Jose 40%
Katia 20%
Lee 0%
Maria 100 % - RETIRED
Nate 100% - RETIRED
Ophelia 0%
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on October 13, 2017, 03:23:00 PM
Percentages...
Arlene: 0%
Bret 1%
Cindy 3%
Don 5%
Emily 1%
Franklin 15%
Gert 10%
Harvey 99%
Irma 99%
Jose 40%
Katia 20%
Lee 0%
Maria 99%
Nate 80% (Deaths and damages)
Ophelia Active, unknown
Can you put a bet on those odds in Vegas?
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on October 13, 2017, 03:23:00 PM
Percentages...
Jose 40%
I wonder why did you put Jose at 40%? Despite its strength, it barely caused any damage. Hurricanes aren't retired for strength alone generally.
Quote from: Pink Jazz on October 13, 2017, 05:30:42 PM
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on October 13, 2017, 03:23:00 PM
Percentages...
Jose 40%
I wonder why did you put Jose at 40%? Despite its strength, it barely caused any damage. Hurricanes aren't retired for strength alone generally.
Actually, the organization that retires hurricane names is the World Meteorological Organization. It's because of them that there will never be another Hurricane Katrina or Andrew, for example. Harvey, Irma and Maria will certainly be retired. I don't know about Nate, but Ophelia (which clobbered Ireland after it metamorphosized into what's called an "extratropical" system; i.e. your normal garden-variety storm, if more severe than usual) might be retired. It remains to be seen.
I think they'll just retire Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and no others. I'm just guessing here, though.
Quote from: paulthemapguy on October 27, 2017, 11:24:53 PM
I think they'll just retire Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and no others. I'm just guessing here, though.
In a down year, Irma might have seemed bad, but coming right after Harvey it felt like a much weaker little sister. I've seen lesser hurricanes retired though so you're probably right.
Quote from: Alps on November 02, 2017, 12:49:48 AM
Quote from: paulthemapguy on October 27, 2017, 11:24:53 PM
I think they'll just retire Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and no others. I'm just guessing here, though.
In a down year, Irma might have seemed bad, but coming right after Harvey it felt like a much weaker little sister. I've seen lesser hurricanes retired though so you're probably right.
Uh.... so, Harvey is the costliest storm on record, beating Katrina. It's getting retired no matter what.
Quote from: Alps on November 02, 2017, 12:49:48 AM
Quote from: paulthemapguy on October 27, 2017, 11:24:53 PM
I think they'll just retire Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and no others. I'm just guessing here, though.
In a down year, Irma might have seemed bad, but coming right after Harvey it felt like a much weaker little sister. I've seen lesser hurricanes retired though so you're probably right.
Those were my thoughts exactly. That's pretty much my entire thought process lol
I agree that Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be retired. Ophelia does have a chance that it will be retired due to the effects on the British Isles, and in an off year, Nate would have a better chance to be retired.
Quote from: Pink Jazz on October 13, 2017, 05:30:42 PM
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on October 13, 2017, 03:23:00 PM
Percentages...
Jose 40%
I wonder why did you put Jose at 40%? Despite its strength, it barely caused any damage. Hurricanes aren't retired for strength alone generally.
The only Hurricane to ever be retired due to strength is Hurricane Patricia (215 mph, 872 mb).
What are some names that were surprisingly NOT retired in recent years?
I can think of a few:
Juan (1985; would eventually be retired after a 2003 storm of the same name hit Atlantic Canada)
Gordon (1994)
Bonnie (1998)
Emily (2005)
All of the above were either billion-dollar storms or killed thousands of people.
Irma seemed like child's play compared to Harvey mostly because Irma trucked along the I-75 corridor with decent forward speed while Harvey parked in south Texas for almost a week.
Quote from: ftballfan on December 31, 2017, 03:12:11 PM
What are some names that were surprisingly NOT retired in recent years?
I can think of a few:
Juan (1985; would eventually be retired after a 2003 storm of the same name hit Atlantic Canada)
Gordon (1994)
Bonnie (1998)
Emily (2005)
All of the above were either billion-dollar storms or killed thousands of people.
Irma seemed like child's play compared to Harvey mostly because Irma trucked along the I-75 corridor with decent forward speed while Harvey parked in south Texas for almost a week.
Can I add Isaac of 2012? 2 billion in damage.
Quote from: ftballfan on December 31, 2017, 03:12:11 PM
What are some names that were surprisingly NOT retired in recent years?
I can think of a few:
Gordon (1994)
Somehow Haiti didn't send any representatives to the meeting following the storm, so it wasn't retired. It will be used this year (unless there are less than 7 storms).
Quote from: ftballfan on December 31, 2017, 03:12:11 PMEmily (2005)
At the time Mexico wasn't too keen to request the retirement of several names. As a result Emily remains the only Category 5 hurricane since current lists began not to be retired.
At the opposite end is Frances. The 2004 iteration was to be the last anyway due to a request by, you have guessed it, France.
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on January 01, 2018, 10:26:37 AM
At the time Mexico wasn't too keen to request the retirement of several names. As a result Emily remains the only Category 5 hurricane since current lists began not to be retired.
Another example Mexico not requesting retirement is 2010's Hurricane Karl, which caused $3.9 billion in damage. Mexico seems to be fairly unpredictable in its retirements, since there have been several less damaging storms that have been retired, although perhaps today Mexico might have higher retirement standards than in the past.
We'll probably know who's retired in March. Anyone know when the meeting is?
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on January 03, 2018, 02:13:00 PM
We'll probably know who's retired in March. Anyone know when the meeting is?
Not sure if this is the meeting that is called to retire names (among other things), but I did find this:
Quote47th Session of the IPCC
Start date
13 March 2018
End date
16 March 2018
Here are my picks for replacement names:
- Harvey replaced by Hank
- Irma replaced by Idalia
- Maria replaced by Maleficent
- Nate (if retired) replaced by Neil
- Ophelia (if retired) replaced by Odessa
Note that Ophelia is now looking less likely to be retired, since damage totals in Ireland were greatly reduced from over $1 billion to around $70 million. Nate on the other hand is looking more likely to be retired since the damage and deaths in Costa Rica rivaled Otto from 2016, which was retired.
The 40th Session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee starts tomorrow. We should have our retired names and their replacements announced by Thursday-Saturday.
Looks like we have our retired names: Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate. Their replacements are Harold, Idalia, Margot, and Nigel.
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on October 13, 2017, 03:23:00 PM
Percentages...
Arlene: 0%
Bret 1%
Cindy 3%
Don 5%
Emily 1%
Franklin 15%
Gert 10%
Harvey 100% - RETIRED
Irma 100% - RETIRED
Jose 40%
Katia 20%
Lee 0%
Maria 100 % - RETIRED
Nate 100% - RETIRED
Ophelia 0%
Edited my percentages.
You missed Philippe and Rina in your list.
They are coming up with some weird names: Harold, Idalia, Margot, Nigel. Much like in the Western Pacific the names are increaingly sounding more like Chinese. Fun fact: in the 2023 list from Harold to Nigel only Jose isn't a replacement name. And this year's list contains the last remaining I name from when the current lists were first used: Isaac.
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on April 12, 2018, 10:56:03 AM
You missed Philippe and Rina in your list.
I know - I decided not to include them because they had near-null chance.
Isaac should've been retired in 2012 IMO after the $2b it dealt to Louisiana.
LG-TP260
I was a little surprised to see Nate get retired, but I knew Harvey, Irma, and Maria definitely would - you gotta feel sorry for all the people affected by any and all hurricanes or weather events (death, property damage, loss of loved one, etc.).
Quote from: 20160805 on April 24, 2018, 07:58:50 PM
I was a little surprised to see Nate get retired, but I knew Harvey, Irma, and Maria definitely would - you gotta feel sorry for all the people affected by any and all hurricanes or weather events (death, property damage, loss of loved one, etc.).
Nate caused significant damage to Costa Rica, and for a country that rarely gets affected by hurricanes, it warrants retirement by their standards, so I'm not surprised at all. Otto of 2016 was retired and it caused less damage than Nate.
Ophelia I initially thought would have had a higher chance of retirement, but final damage totals were much lower than initial estimates, leading to the name not being retired.
What is more amazing, you guessed correctly one of the replacement names!
Quote from: Pink Jazz on January 10, 2018, 02:32:45 PM
Here are my picks for replacement names:
- Harvey replaced by Hank (Nope, Harold)
- Irma replaced by Idalia (Correct!)
- Maria replaced by Maleficent (Nope, Margot)
- Nate replaced by Neil (Nope, Nigel)
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on April 25, 2018, 02:51:34 PM
What is more amazing, you guessed correctly one of the replacement names!
Quote from: Pink Jazz on January 10, 2018, 02:32:45 PM
Here are my picks for replacement names:
- Harvey replaced by Hank (Nope, Harold)
- Irma replaced by Idalia (Correct!)
- Maria replaced by Maleficent (Nope, Margot)
- Nate replaced by Neil (Nope, Nigel)
Nice call.
Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on April 25, 2018, 02:51:34 PM
What is more amazing, you guessed correctly one of the replacement names!
Quote from: Pink Jazz on January 10, 2018, 02:32:45 PM
Here are my picks for replacement names:
- Harvey replaced by Hank (Nope, Harold)
- Irma replaced by Idalia (Correct!)
- Maria replaced by Maleficent (Nope, Margot)
- Nate replaced by Neil (Nope, Nigel)
I knew Maleficent wasn't likely to replace Maria, but considering they chose Elsa to replace Erika, I thought it would make sense to stick with the Disney theme.