Illinois is declining because of several factors. No one can point to just one and say that is it.
- Over taxation of property
The IL legislature has essentially taken a pay day loan using future property tax income as collateral. This has caused the increase in property taxes to offset and in some cases overtake increases in property values.
- Public service payrolls and pensions not in line with economy
Some of the poorest counties like Alexander and Hardin, the highest paid person in town is usually the district superintendent or the high school principal. In one Illinois county the highest paid person was the middle school basketball coach and PE teacher. 60% over the county median income.
In Murphysboro, Illinois the district superintendent was making over 200k, 150% over the county median.
While Illinois has been aggressively offering 5 Plus early retirements to statewide teachers, the pension benefits they offer are expensive because the teachers are leaving at age 60, not 65. This is not being offset by the lower pay of newer teachers.
- Too many government entities to support
Illinois still adheres to a very ancient governance model. It made sense in 1825, but it really hasn't changed much.
State>County>Township
In the days of horse and buggy, it completely made sense that townships had their own governance structure (roads, fire, police, parks, etc.)
Townships over time have released some of those areas in some counties. But at this point, Townships best function is to provide defined taxing areas. It's a layer of cost that can be retired.
- Too many school districts
There are many rural school districts that have become too expensive to operate relative to the economy they can support and the state has to make up the difference (and they aren't)
There are many school districts that still point back to their formation in the 1800's. With Illinois underfunding reimbursements, many of these districts are running large deficits because they can't afford the teachers and operational costs.
While this has caused many districts to merge to save themselves, but it isn't happening fast enough.
None of these issues has anything to do with urban vs rural, city vs town folk. It's about streamlining the costs of governance and get them in line with the realities of what Illinois has become.
When your population declines, you can't keep doubling down and tax the fewer yet more to make up for it. You have to reconcile what can be done to what is possible.