News:

Thank you for your patience during the Forum downtime while we upgraded the software. Welcome back and see this thread for some new features and other changes to the forum.

Main Menu

Tornadoes in the south

Started by tolbs17, March 17, 2021, 09:15:34 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

tolbs17

Well, I guess this is something that I will experience for years. Especially during a pandemic

For here, it says it will happen sometime around 7pm (sunset).

https://www.wral.com/severe-weather-coming-medium-to-high-threat-for-tornadoes-thursday-afternoon/19576470/




hotdogPi

There is no such thing as a tornado warning in advance.
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

SkyPesos

I thought tornado warnings only come at most 15 minutes in advance, not a whole day.

tolbs17

Quote from: 1 on March 17, 2021, 09:17:47 PM
There is no such thing as a tornado warning in advance.
Well, MS (and some of my friends live there) got rekt and they have no power when a tornado hit. I know I'm ain't gonna go there.

I know there will be heavy rain and damaging winds.

tolbs17

#4
Quote from: SkyPesos on March 17, 2021, 09:19:00 PM
I thought tornado warnings only come at most 15 minutes in advance, not a whole day.
Retitled the thread.

I wanted to make this so the weather thread doesn't get gung-ho with the tornado discussion rather than just normal weather talk.

Scott5114

Quote from: 1 on March 17, 2021, 09:17:47 PM
There is no such thing as a tornado warning in advance.

Quote from: SkyPesos on March 17, 2021, 09:19:00 PM
I thought tornado warnings only come at most 15 minutes in advance, not a whole day.

The folks down on Highway 9 in beautiful Norman, Oklahoma can do a pretty fair job at determining a few days in advance that tornadoes are likely, even to the point that they can forecast the time of day they'll form and how long-tracked and strong they'll be. Of course, none of that says where exactly will be affected–tornado tracks are just too small and unpredictable for that.

Day 1 convective outlook (tonight). Wouldn't want to be in Alabama right now–High risk areas are no joke, and tend to end up with results like the May 20, 2013 or May 3, 1999 outbreaks.


Day 2 (tomorrow). Better, but Moderate risk is still nothing to fool around with. (I've had to take shelter on Slight risk days too many times.)
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

tolbs17

Or May 22, 2011.

I guess moderate risk would have some tree damage and that's all.

Greenville is roughly in the moderate zone, but is pretty close to enhanched.

Scott5114

Quote from: tolbs17 on March 17, 2021, 11:40:50 PM
I guess moderate risk would have some tree damage and that's all.

Moderate risk is roughly to tornadoes what a Category 4 is to hurricanes. "Some tree damage" is Marginal.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

Roadgeekteen

Does Oklahoma count as the south?
God-emperor of Alanland, king of all the goats and goat-like creatures

Current Interstate map I am making:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?hl=en&mid=1PEDVyNb1skhnkPkgXi8JMaaudM2zI-Y&ll=29.05778059819179%2C-82.48856825&z=5

hotdogPi

Quote from: Roadgeekteen on March 18, 2021, 07:54:34 AM
Does Oklahoma count as the south?

I would say the eastern third does, but not the rest. The area covering the current second congressional district was previously Democratic and has turned Republican recently (like the rest of the South, later at the state level than the national level). It also matches the Texas split where the eastern part is in the South but the western part is not. While Oklahoma has very few African Americans compared to most of the South, so does the eastern half of Tennessee, which is unambiguously in the South.
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.

jeffandnicole

Quote from: Scott5114 on March 17, 2021, 10:57:30 PM
Day 2 (tomorrow). Better, but Moderate risk is still nothing to fool around with. (I've had to take shelter on Slight risk days too many times.)


Based on the weather forecasts combined, parts of PA and NJ will see over an inch of rain, have a slight chance of tornados, then a chance of snow overnight.

Scott5114

Quote from: 1 on March 18, 2021, 08:01:31 AM
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on March 18, 2021, 07:54:34 AM
Does Oklahoma count as the south?

I would say the eastern third does, but not the rest. The area covering the current second congressional district was previously Democratic and has turned Republican recently (like the rest of the South, later at the state level than the national level). It also matches the Texas split where the eastern part is in the South but the western part is not. While Oklahoma has very few African Americans compared to most of the South, so does the eastern half of Tennessee, which is unambiguously in the South.

Maybe go with the eastern third, south of about I-40. I wouldn't consider Tulsa or anything east of there on I-44 particularly Southern.

The real answer is that Oklahoma is the product of a one-night stand between Kansas and Texas, so categorize it wherever you'd put the midpoint between our neighbors, or a watered-down Texas.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

UnumProvident101

where I live my town was in the slight risk area but we only had flash flooding

Rothman

QuoteWhile Oklahoma has very few African Americans compared to most of the South, so does the eastern half of Tennessee, which is unambiguously in the South.

Hm.  Read Tulsa's history.

Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

tolbs17

We got nothing yet, storm is still coming. It's a complete waste to just cancel school, really.

Scott5114

Such is life with mesocyclones. Sometimes something as minor as a cloud bank forming, or a front coming in an hour earlier than expected and triggering convection early, sucks enough energy out of the atmosphere that what could have been a really bad storm never materializes.

Consider it a blessing: nobody died, and you got a free day off.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

tolbs17

Quote from: Scott5114 on March 18, 2021, 09:36:29 PM
Such is life with mesocyclones. Sometimes something as minor as a cloud bank forming, or a front coming in an hour earlier than expected and triggering convection early, sucks enough energy out of the atmosphere that what could have been a really bad storm never materializes.

Consider it a blessing: nobody died, and you got a free day off.
I guess so. It's REALLY going to rain tomorrow with some winds.

ET21

Quote from: 1 on March 17, 2021, 09:17:47 PM
There is no such thing as a tornado warning in advance.

Warnings nowadays are usually 20-30 minutes in advance of the actual storm, sometimes more. So yes, there is advanced warning
The local weatherman, trust me I can be 99.9% right!
"Show where you're going, without forgetting where you're from"

Clinched:
IL: I-88, I-180, I-190, I-290, I-294, I-355, IL-390
IN: I-80, I-94
SD: I-190
WI: I-90, I-94
MI: I-94, I-196
MN: I-90

Scott5114

Also, most tornado warnings are now triggered by "radar-indicated rotation" rather than actual sighting of a tornado, which means an area can be under a tornado warning before a tornado even hits the ground.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

I-55

Quote from: Scott5114 on March 19, 2021, 02:30:06 PM
Also, most tornado warnings are now triggered by "radar-indicated rotation" rather than actual sighting of a tornado, which means an area can be under a tornado warning before a tornado even hits the ground.

You see this a lot more in the south and at night than you do in the plains or during the day. I can recall multiple instances where a radar signature in Nebraska or Kansas wasn't tornado warned that would've been in Alabama or Mississippi. Sometimes, warnings aren't even issued until a tornado is actually sighted on the ground in those states. It's harder to visually determine whether a tornado is down in the south (due to terrain and HP vs LP supercells) which is why radar indicated warnings are very common. It often took 30 minutes to an hour to determine if anything was down (before CC/Dual Pol was a thing).
Let's Go Purdue Basketball Whoosh

CoreySamson

Quote from: I-55 on March 19, 2021, 08:07:10 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 19, 2021, 02:30:06 PM
Also, most tornado warnings are now triggered by "radar-indicated rotation" rather than actual sighting of a tornado, which means an area can be under a tornado warning before a tornado even hits the ground.

You see this a lot more in the south and at night than you do in the plains or during the day. I can recall multiple instances where a radar signature in Nebraska or Kansas wasn't tornado warned that would've been in Alabama or Mississippi. Sometimes, warnings aren't even issued until a tornado is actually sighted on the ground in those states. It's harder to visually determine whether a tornado is down in the south (due to terrain and HP vs LP supercells) which is why radar indicated warnings are very common. It often took 30 minutes to an hour to determine if anything was down (before CC/Dual Pol was a thing).
Yeah all of the tornado warnings I've gotten over the years were issued because of that "radar-indicated rotation", never a "tornado sighted". It seems that if you get a warning like that, it usually ends up becoming a weak, rain-wrapped funnel that most don't even know is there (if it even comes down at all). On a serious note, I think it's always better to overwarn a storm rather than underwarn it, because other parts of the storm (hail, downdrafts, etc) can also be dangerous and worth sheltering for, even if there isn't a tornado.
Buc-ee's and QuikTrip fanboy. Clincher of FM roads. Proponent of the TX U-turn.

My Route Log
My Clinches

Now on mobrule and Travel Mapping!

I-55

Quote from: CoreySamson on March 19, 2021, 08:19:10 PM
Quote from: I-55 on March 19, 2021, 08:07:10 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on March 19, 2021, 02:30:06 PM
Also, most tornado warnings are now triggered by "radar-indicated rotation" rather than actual sighting of a tornado, which means an area can be under a tornado warning before a tornado even hits the ground.

You see this a lot more in the south and at night than you do in the plains or during the day. I can recall multiple instances where a radar signature in Nebraska or Kansas wasn't tornado warned that would've been in Alabama or Mississippi. Sometimes, warnings aren't even issued until a tornado is actually sighted on the ground in those states. It's harder to visually determine whether a tornado is down in the south (due to terrain and HP vs LP supercells) which is why radar indicated warnings are very common. It often took 30 minutes to an hour to determine if anything was down (before CC/Dual Pol was a thing).
Yeah all of the tornado warnings I've gotten over the years were issued because of that "radar-indicated rotation", never a "tornado sighted". It seems that if you get a warning like that, it usually ends up becoming a weak, rain-wrapped funnel that most don't even know is there (if it even comes down at all). On a serious note, I think it's always better to overwarn a storm rather than underwarn it, because other parts of the storm (hail, downdrafts, etc) can also be dangerous and worth sheltering for, even if there isn't a tornado.

But at the same time overwarning makes people take warnings less seriously. If you have enough false alarms, people will stop taking action and will eventually when an actual tornado occurs less people will be ready for it.
Let's Go Purdue Basketball Whoosh

Scott5114

Another High Risk day in the Deep South today.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

Zeffy

Already several tornadoes reported in Alabama, including one that produced a Tornado Emergency near Birmingham.
Life would be boring if we didn't take an offramp every once in a while

A weird combination of a weather geek, roadgeek, car enthusiast and furry mixed with many anxiety related disorders

hotdogPi

Is being on the edge of the light green, in a location where nobody is used to tornadoes, something to worry about? (I live barely outside it, but as it travels from west to east, it will enter my location.)
Clinched, minus I-93 (I'm missing a few miles and my file is incorrect)

Traveled, plus US 13, 44, and 50, and several state routes

I will be in Burlington VT for the eclipse.



Opinions expressed here on belong solely to the poster and do not represent or reflect the opinions or beliefs of AARoads, its creators and/or associates.