Which Highways in Your State are Most/Likely to be Clinched by Travelers

Started by JayhawkCO, August 19, 2024, 11:32:15 AM

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JayhawkCO

I had this thought as I was driving out to go camping and when I exited onto CO91 from I-70, I realized that, unless you're just going skiing at Copper Mountain, almost everyone that takes CO91 probably goes all the way to Leadville since there aren't any cities and are very few businesses and/or residences along the way. So, I started thinking about which routes are most likely to be clinched (in one shot) by any traveler that travels on the highway and then the opposite of that as well - which routes are least likely to be traveled straight through by anyone.

The "rules":

For a route to be considered, the amount of people that drive on that highway is irrelevant. We're talking about the highest percentage of travelers of that route clinching it when driving it. Remote routes might not be driven often, but if you do travel it, are you likely to clinch the whole thing?

For most likely to be clinched, the route has to be over 20 miles long. Obviously highways that are glorified off ramps are super easy to clinch, so we're not going to count those. If you have a few options that you think are similar, select the longest route.

For least likely to be clinched, you can probably think of a bunch of weird routings, etc. where almost no one would do the whole route in one fell swoop, so if that's the case, pick the shortest route where you believe that to be the case.

My examples from Colorado:

Most Likely to Clinch
Interstate: I-76 (184.14 miles) - There are a decent amount of travelers either heading to the mountains or just generally to the southwest from Nebraska and I-80. The stretch west of I-25 is probably the part that would stop some from clinching the whole thing, but there aren't exactly a ton of population centers along I-76 that are "destinations" for people driving I-76.

US Highway: US350 (72.718 miles) - A rural route for sure, but there are basically no settlements of any size along the way. Yes, there's some farm traffic, but this route is largely for La Junta or Western Kansas to New Mexico traffic.

State Highway: CO139 (72.07 miles) - Another rural route that heads out of the general Grand Junction area and heads north to pretty sparsely populated northwestern Colorado. There are zero cities/CDPs along the route and it doesn't intersect any other numbered routes along the way. There aren't that many recreational spots either outside of Douglas Pass. If you take this route, you're probably "going elsewhere".

Least Likely to Clinch
Interstate: I-25 (298.87 miles) - There aren't a ton of people in New Mexico nor Wyoming. There are a ton of people along the I-25 corridor in Colorado. The highway really doesn't represent a big freight route between cities of any particular size on either end (El Paso to Billings?).

US Highway: US138 (59.823 miles) - It's a very redundant route to I-76. This route is primarily for farm traffic and between a few of the cities along the South Platte up in NE Colorado. Many other US highways are really hard (or impossible!) to travel straight through in Colorado, but US138 is the shortest.

State Highway: CO300 (3.356 miles) - This highway is to serve the Leadville Fish Hatchery, but extends past it to some homes north of the hatchery and kind of doubles back on itself. At the northern end, if you wanted to get to Leadville or to go south on US24, it would be faster not to take CO300 around.


Max Rockatansky

Most likely here in California would be I-205.  It is a short Interstate that is often the intuitive route towards the Bay Area from several directions.  The least likely would be some of the hyper rural one lane highways like CA 172, CA 229 or even CA 169.   

CA 173 and CA 39 would probably even top those given you literally have to hike the closed segments if you want a clinch.  Normal people don't go for clinching much less exploring strange remote areas.

TheHighwayMan3561

MN

Most likely
I-694 - MSP bypass
US 8 - popular cabin route into Wisconsin
TH 371 - also a major cabin country route, but goes point to point with no extraneous miles like most qualifying state routes

Least likely
I-35 - because most people probably came from the east or west, there's no reason for most people to take this route both ways out of MSP
US 69 - odd origin point in Albert Lea, redundant to both I-35 and US 65
TH 77 - continues a couple miles past its last major traffic shift point at I-35E
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JayhawkCO

Quote from: TheHighwayMan3561 on August 19, 2024, 12:14:54 PMMN

US 69 - odd origin point in Albert Lea, redundant to both I-35 and US 65

I think if you happen to make it onto US69 in Minnesota though, you're likely clinching it. There's not much along the route during those 12 miles.

For Minnesota, I'd probably pick US63. I've never clinched it despite spending A LOT of time in southeastern Minnesota, since there are some logical places to leave the route (I-90, Rochester, Lake City, etc.) and not that much immediately on the other side of the Wisconsin and Iowa borders respectively.

TheHighwayMan3561

#4
Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 19, 2024, 12:26:20 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan3561 on August 19, 2024, 12:14:54 PMMN

US 69 - odd origin point in Albert Lea, redundant to both I-35 and US 65

I think if you happen to make it onto US69 in Minnesota though, you're likely clinching it. There's not much along the route during those 12 miles.

For Minnesota, I'd probably pick US63. I've never clinched it despite spending A LOT of time in southeastern Minnesota, since there are some logical places to leave the route (I-90, Rochester, Lake City, etc.) and not that much immediately on the other side of the Wisconsin and Iowa borders respectively.

Yeah, that makes sense. It took me a very deliberate attempt to finish US 63. It also has the two TOTSOs from TH 16 in/around Spring Valley and the E-W jog to get from its old alignment to US 52 on Rochester's north side when it was taken off Broadway Avenue  Maps actually recommends CSAH 1 between Spring Valley and Rochester.
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webny99

For starters I guess I am confused by the 20-mile threshold. A route that is both over 20 miles and easy to casually clinch (not just drive) for a high percentage of users strikes me as very rare.

A few routes that immediately come to mind in my area are I-590, NY 590, NY 531, and NY 204... but they're all under 20 miles. Also routes like NY 318, NY 104B, NY 180... again, all under 20 miles.

The only candidate I can think of that's over 20 miles is NY 31A (23 miles) and even that's kind of obscure for all but a certain subset of long-distance traffic in the region.

In PA, I-180 would be a good one, but there's nothing directly comparable to that in NY that's over 20 miles. Even routes like NY 481 that are theoretically pretty easy to clinch in one shot wouldn't have a super high percentage of clinchers. I-88 (118 miles) or US 219 (68 miles) might be the closest thing to what you're looking for here, and neither strikes me as a great match.

hotdogPi

Least likely for MA would probably be MA 140. There's nothing that's hard to get (other than paralleling freeways), but its overlaps with MA 2 and I-495 mean a whole bunch of people have traveled some of it even if they never intended to be on 140, decreasing the ratio.
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MA 22, 35, 40, 53, 107, 109, 126, 141, 159
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NWI_Irish96

With 20 miles being the benchmark, Indiana would definitely be I-94. For state routes, I would guess either the northern IN 11 or the western IN 4.

Least likely would have been IN 111 before the very remote section got truncated, so now it's probably IN 166.
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epzik8

Most likely: I-95, US 13, MD 404

Least likely: I-695, US 40, MD 5
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Rothman

Percentage of travelers that clinch the route if they go on it? 

Meh.  How speculative.
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2024, 12:51:04 PMFor starters I guess I am confused by the 20-mile threshold. A route that is both over 20 miles and easy to casually clinch (not just drive) for a high percentage of users strikes me as very rare.

Think of it this way. If you travel on I-189, are you ever NOT clinching that? Of course not. Short routes aren't an interesting discussion for that topic. My original example of CO91 is a much longer route, but when you look at what's along the way as opposed to the termini, you realize that there's almost nothing to turn off onto nor stop at along the way, so once you start, you're almost always finishing the route. Hopefully that makes sense.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: Rothman on August 19, 2024, 01:47:06 PMPercentage of travelers that clinch the route if they go on it? 

Meh.  How speculative.

I believe you have the imagination required.

7/8

Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2024, 12:51:04 PMIn PA, I-180 would be a good one, but there's nothing directly comparable to that in NY that's over 20 miles. Even routes like NY 481 that are theoretically pretty easy to clinch in one shot wouldn't have a super high percentage of clinchers. I-88 (118 miles) or US 219 (68 miles) might be the closest thing to what you're looking for here, and neither strikes me as a great match.

Huh, I thought I-88 would be a great match. There's not much along the route, so I figured many travellers would drive the full length.

7/8

My opinion for Ontario:

Most likely: 37, 69, 108, 138, 402, 416

Least likely: 3, 6, 7, 11, 62, 401, 403, 407, 417

vdeane

Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2024, 12:51:04 PMFor starters I guess I am confused by the 20-mile threshold. A route that is both over 20 miles and easy to casually clinch (not just drive) for a high percentage of users strikes me as very rare.

A few routes that immediately come to mind in my area are I-590, NY 590, NY 531, and NY 204... but they're all under 20 miles. Also routes like NY 318, NY 104B, NY 180... again, all under 20 miles.

The only candidate I can think of that's over 20 miles is NY 31A (23 miles) and even that's kind of obscure for all but a certain subset of long-distance traffic in the region.

In PA, I-180 would be a good one, but there's nothing directly comparable to that in NY that's over 20 miles. Even routes like NY 481 that are theoretically pretty easy to clinch in one shot wouldn't have a super high percentage of clinchers. I-88 (118 miles) or US 219 (68 miles) might be the closest thing to what you're looking for here, and neither strikes me as a great match.
It's percentage of travelers on the route, not in the state.  The people who never travel on NY 31A at all do not count for this thread.  So yes, I-88 is a great candidate; the primary driver of traffic is Binghamton-Albany, not Oneonta.  The only thing that gives me pause is the traffic between Rotterdam off exit 25 (suburbs, truck stops, and distribution centers/industry) and the Thruway.

For least, I would think odd-shaped routes like NY 8, NY 9N, or NY 28.
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position of NYSDOT or its affiliates.

hbelkins

For Kentucky, the most likely would be either I-24 or I-71.

Least likely? Any number of them, but I'll nominate the two long cross-state routes US 60 and KY 80.
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gonealookin

Nevada:

For most likely I'd go with SR 318, the 111-mile north-south connector between US 6 and US 93 that shaves about 40 miles off the Ely to Las Vegas trip vs. staying on US 93 the whole way.  It's also a high-speed road, the one that's used for the "Silver State Classic Challenge" (the highway is closed to the public and the race entrants see how fast they can make the trip; of the 90 miles of it used for the race the record average speed is over 219 mph).  AADT is in the vicinity of 1700 near both ends of it and just about all of those have to be the same 1700 vehicles.

The caveat is that one must drive a very short segment of SR 318, less than 0.5 mile at the south end, to access SR 375, the "Extraterrestrial Highway", from US 93.  But AADT on SR 375 just west of SR 318 is only in the 300 range.

The one that comes to mind as least likely is I-15.  Yes there are trucks going straight through that don't stop in Vegas, but how much of the traffic is coming from Southern California (mostly) and Utah (partly) with Vegas as the destination?

Bruce

For Washington, it's probably I-405. Starts close to the largest airport (Sea-Tac) and is a genuinely useful bypass (when it's not clogged) and serves a decent number of potential destinations.
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kurumi

For Connecticut:

most likely might be I-395. Driving from CT central coast to NH/Maine, you can avoid Hartford and Boston with some early pain I-95. Once you turn north on 395, it's less than an hour to Massachusetts. 54.69 miles.

Other interstates are too short, or have too many destinations along the way.

least likely: maybe CT 148. It has a ferry crossing only 5 miles from a bridge (CT 82). The scenic value and local convenience of the ferry might not intersect with people driving all the way to Durham on back roads. 16.35 miles.
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dlsterner

Quote from: epzik8 on August 19, 2024, 01:36:43 PMMost likely: I-95, US 13, MD 404

Least likely: I-695, US 40, MD 5

Nice choices, but I may have to respectfully disagree on one:

MD 404 - Certainly the part from US 50 to the Delaware border - but there is also a small piece west of US 50 going to Wye Mills that many people will miss.

For least likely - I agree with US 40.  I think US 50 could be added if you include both its main (eastern) segment and its western segment near Red House MD as a single route.  MD 2 would be a reasonable choice as well.

For most likely - I-68 seems like one of those that "if you are getting part of it, you might be likely getting all of it".  I would also consider I-97 except for it being a tad shorter than the somewhat arbitrary length set by the OP.

If you allow me to choose for a former home state (Florida)  I think US 98 would be in the running for "least likely".

bwana39

Completely?

I-40
I-30
I-20.
I-45.

Probably none of the US Highways particularly. I-10 is not that likely for " travellers" as opposed to truckers.
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drebbin37

Quote from: kurumi on August 19, 2024, 10:00:29 PMFor Connecticut:

most likely might be I-395. Driving from CT central coast to NH/Maine, you can avoid Hartford and Boston with some early pain I-95. Once you turn north on 395, it's less than an hour to Massachusetts. 54.69 miles.

Other interstates are too short, or have too many destinations along the way.

least likely: maybe CT 148. It has a ferry crossing only 5 miles from a bridge (CT 82). The scenic value and local convenience of the ferry might not intersect with people driving all the way to Durham on back roads. 16.35 miles.

The 20-mile thing makes it tough for CT.  You may be right with 395, but a lot of its traffic gets off at the casinos.  All of the through trucks and out-of-state cars on I-84 might make it a contender.

For least likely, there are lots of possibilities.  There's the ferry routes, as you mentioned.  I can't imagine too many people have the patience to clinch the 115.76 miles of US1 in CT in one shot.  CT20 is another option (30.42 mi.), since very few vehicles go around the north side of Barkhamsted Reservoir through Hartland, but plenty use the Bradley Connector to I-91.  It would also be pretty strange to drive CT154 (27.77 mi.) or CT156 (22.21 mi.) from end to end.

For a really short route, how about the 3.65-mile CT286?  I've read on your nycroads site about the renumbering from 140 and 140A in the 1960s.  Nowadays there's little reason to follow Main and Pinney Streets between the endpoints of 286, since Lower Butcher Rd. and Windermere Ave. no longer have the one-lane bridges and most cars transfer between 286 and 140 one way or the other anyway.

74/171FAN

Quote from: dlsterner on August 19, 2024, 10:23:23 PMNice choices, but I may have to respectfully disagree on one:

MD 404 - Certainly the part from US 50 to the Delaware border - but there is also a small piece west of US 50 going to Wye Mills that many people will miss.

PA 283 has the same issue with that little piece west of I-283 to Eisenhower Blvd.

I-90 in PA feels like a good candidate for this thread basically by default for those traveling between NY and OH.  A few will exit/enter at I-86, but probably not that many.
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MikeTheActuary

Quote from: JayhawkCO on August 19, 2024, 11:32:15 AMThe "rules":

For a route to be considered, the amount of people that drive on that highway is irrelevant. We're talking about the highest percentage of travelers of that route clinching it when driving it. Remote routes might not be driven often, but if you do travel it, are you likely to clinch the whole thing?

For most likely to be clinched, the route has to be over 20 miles long. Obviously highways that are glorified off ramps are super easy to clinch, so we're not going to count those. If you have a few options that you think are similar, select the longest route.

For least likely to be clinched, you can probably think of a bunch of weird routings, etc. where almost no one would do the whole route in one fell swoop, so if that's the case, pick the shortest route where you believe that to be the case.

My CT contribution:

With the 20-mile criterion, I-395.  The natural flow of people using the I-95/I-91/I-84 corridor to travel between the Boston area and the NYC area excludes those highways.

Without the 20-mile criterion, there'd be an obvious winner:  I-684.  :D

For least-likely to be clinched, the two obvious answers would be CT15 and CT20.  The non-freeway portions of Route 15 are primarily for local traffic.  For Route 20...the volume of traffic traveling the entire length is almost certainly insignificant as compared to the volume of traffic using part of Route 20 to access the airport (BDL).

webny99

Quote from: 7/8 on August 19, 2024, 01:48:28 PM
Quote from: webny99 on August 19, 2024, 12:51:04 PMIn PA, I-180 would be a good one, but there's nothing directly comparable to that in NY that's over 20 miles. Even routes like NY 481 that are theoretically pretty easy to clinch in one shot wouldn't have a super high percentage of clinchers. I-88 (118 miles) or US 219 (68 miles) might be the closest thing to what you're looking for here, and neither strikes me as a great match.

Huh, I thought I-88 would be a great match. There's not much along the route, so I figured many travellers would drive the full length.

I suppose it fits the spirit of the thread, as it is true that it connects two decent sized population centers and there isn't much along the route, but also seemed kind of long distance for an easy clinch while also being fairly vanilla due to its interstate route status.




Quote from: vdeane on August 19, 2024, 02:25:48 PMIt's percentage of travelers on the route, not in the state.  The people who never travel on NY 31A at all do not count for this thread.  So yes, I-88 is a great candidate; the primary driver of traffic is Binghamton-Albany, not Oneonta.  The only thing that gives me pause is the traffic between Rotterdam off exit 25 (suburbs, truck stops, and distribution centers/industry) and the Thruway.

I think 'great' is a stretch for I-88 because (a) it's long enough that there are quite a few intersecting corridors where short and medium distance traffic could feasibly enter and leave the route (think Binghamton-Utica and Cortland-Albany), and (b) it's just not that well suited to use by long-distance traffic from the rest of NY state, or really anywhere besides Binghamton to the Albany area. Anything outside of that would typically use I-90 (e.g. Cleveland-Albany) or I-87/I-84 (e.g. Scranton-Albany). I-88 is awkward for the rest of upstate in particular: I've had to go out of the way to use I-88 at all and even then it's fragmented bits and pieces that I've managed to fit into larger (usually northwest/southeast oriented) trips.

So even looking at percentage of long-distance travelers on the route, I'd think the Thruway and I-81 have a significantly higher percentage than I-88 because those routes are appealing to a much broader range of trip endpoints while having similar (or in the case of the Thruway, even less) appeal for local and regional traffic.


Quote from: vdeane on August 19, 2024, 02:25:48 PMFor least, I would think odd-shaped routes like NY 8, NY 9N, or NY 28.

Considering that the qualifier for least-clinched was the shortest route possible, I was thinking NY 386 is a pretty good one. Most trips between Scottsville and points north wouldn't use it to begin with, and you'd have to really meander to clinch it in one shot: it has 6 turns in less 5 miles, and the northern four of those are very easily bypassed by I-490/NY 531, while being under 16 miles in total length.



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