Coronavirus pandemic

[J N Winkler]

I'm to understand my local gym is ready to reopen too but won't be able to until the State moves to Phase 3.  I'll probably be spending some time picking up more weight sets after the reopening just in case things get nutty with lockdowns in the fall.

Mine reopened last Monday, but with significant restrictions.  Owing to daily counts of new confirmed cases being still too high in Kansas, our governor opted to transition to something called Phase 1.5 instead of Phase 2.  For gyms the differences between the two include a requirement that locker rooms stay shut.  My gym has announced that floor staff is now required to wear masks, and members are strongly encouraged to do the same.  Social distancing also has to be observed, and the publicity includes reproductions of the signs that will be placed on certain pieces of equipment to take them out of use.  Members are also expected to sanitize everything they use once they finish.  Issue of towels at the front desk has been discontinued--you bring your own.  We used to check in by entering our member codes (basically registered phone number plus a sequence number that is different for each member of the household) on keypads; before the COVID-19 crisis started, we also gained the ability to check in through an app, and that is now the only option since the keypads (being contact surfaces) have been withdrawn.  Opening times have been reduced (IIRC, by two hours on both ends of each day) to allow enhanced cleaning and sanitizing.

It has been five days and I have not been to the gym even once.  I am planning to go this afternoon, but strictly for reconnaissance:  I want to get an idea of how unhandy things will be with social distancing requirements.  I don't fancy going to and from the gym in my workout clothes because I wear shorts and my car has leather seats, but if the locker rooms are going to be shut for a while, I can work out some alternatives.

I always think it's weird when someone tells me that they haven't been outside of California or only to a handful of states.  The number of people who travel a long distance, especially regularly is actually pretty slim.

There was a Livable/Ipsos poll done a few years ago (2016/2017) that found the average number of states visited by an American was 12.

I have known people who have visited 40 or more states without being members of the road enthusiast community, but they have tended to have reasons for travel that led to purposive accumulation of states visited.  For example, our family friends include a retired couple that are currently working on clinching state capitols and Merci trains (48 railway carriages, one for each of the then US states, loaded with gifts and given by the French people to the US to express gratitude for their liberation during World War II).  And one of my mother's old college friends has a campervan and is pretty systematically working through national parks and national historical sites in the US.  Before the coronavirus pandemic hit, she and several siblings were also planning to fly to France for a belated 75th anniversary tour of the Normandy battlefields.

I have friends who have never made the connection between travel and personal enrichment:  to them "going somewhere" means several hours of tedium in a car or plane to see friends or relatives who live out of town.  And I have other friends for whom travel seems to trigger anxiety because it means adding geographical distance between themselves and their support networks at home.

As for passports, currently about 42% of Americans have them.  The percentage was about 10% as recently as 1990, but WHTI (brought in as a result of 9/11) has really pushed it up--it reached 27% in 2007, the year photo ID with citizenship proof became obligatory.  Cheaper air travel and relaxation of visa restrictions have also had weaker stimulative effects.  In my family, we obtained our first passports in 1985 and have been chaining DS-86 renewals continuously since 1997.

I also thought inflation was a cause of a recession, not an effect.

It can be, but the two are separate and not necessarily related.  Recession is basically a sustained fall in GDP, while inflation is a rise in the general price level.  Cost-push inflation (arising from spikes in prices for economic inputs like oil, for example) is one example of a scenario that can trigger a recession.

Our good friends were in Meade County a couple of weeks ago, visiting friends.  He said it was really weird what a difference there was from just one county away.

Ford County, which is only #17 in population, has had the highest number of cases in the state.  (Finney County, #11 by population, is now in second place.)  Yet, just one county away, there's almost nothing.  Current numbers are 1403 compared to only 22.

Both Ford and Finney counties are home to huge meat-packing plants.

Besides Ford (Dodge City) and Finney (Garden City), Seward County (Liberal) has been a COVID-19 hotspot, to the extent that its community hospital has actually handled more cases (some of them from Oklahoma and Texas) than Ascension Via Christi in Wichita.

A while ago I saw a heat map showing COVID-19 hotspots at the county level.  It accompanied an article discussing how state-level curves can obscure late peaking at the local level.  Blue meant cool, while red meant hot, and for Kansas those three counties were red-hot while the rest of the state was varying shades of ice-blue.

Since the meatpackers are considered critical to the protein supply for the US as a whole, Kansas has received tests from the federal government that can be used only in the counties where they are located.  This decouples them from the statewide test pool to a certain extent and thus further complicates trend analysis.

[hotdogPi]

As for passports, currently about 42% of Americans have them.  The percentage was about 10% as recently as 1990, but WHTI (brought in as a result of 9/11) has really pushed it up--it reached 27% in 2007, the year photo ID with citizenship proof became obligatory.  Cheaper air travel and relaxation of visa restrictions have also had weaker stimulative effects.  In my family, we obtained our first passports in 1985 and have been chaining DS-86 renewals continuously since 1997.

Are those under 18 counted as "no" or excluded entirely?

[kphoger]

I'm to understand my local gym is ready to reopen too but won't be able to until the State moves to Phase 3.  I'll probably be spending some time picking up more weight sets after the reopening just in case things get nutty with lockdowns in the fall.

Mine reopened last Monday, but with significant restrictions.  Owing to daily counts of new confirmed cases being still too high in Kansas, our governor opted to transition to something called Phase 1.5 instead of Phase 2.  For gyms the differences between the two include a requirement that locker rooms stay shut. 

My boss and my boss's boss are big into working out at the gym, and they sometimes go during an extended lunch break during the work day.  One of them owns a large RV and keeps it parked on the property.  Because the gym showers are out of use, he showers in the RV instead upon returning to the office.

[J N Winkler]

Are those under 18 counted as "no" or excluded entirely?

The piece I rely on cites "Census and State Department data" (linking to State Department passport statistics) without going into detail on child passports, multiple US passports held by an individual (can be legal in some situations), etc.

[noelbotevera]

As of May 22nd, I've finished school (all tests and assignments completed the week of May 10-16). Unfortunately, my county is still a hotspot for cases; lockdown orders are due to expire June 4th (extended from a statewide opening on May 8th). The borough of Chambersburg attempted to force a reopening, but the governor threatened to cut state funding - that shut up any naysayers.

As for the state, 49 counties (73%) will partially reopen by tonight. Most of the state bar Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and parts of Amish Country have opened, including Harrisburg.

Across the state line in Maryland, a statewide partial reopening happened a week ago, only for cases to spike. Oops.

[Brandon]

Across the state line in Maryland, a statewide partial reopening happened a week ago, only for cases to spike. Oops.

A lot of places are seeing "increases" in cases merely due to more testing.  The numbers to watch are those admitted to the hospital.

[kphoger]

My wife just texted me today to say she has received a grant for her home daycare, to help with lost income, additional sanitation equipment, etc.  Part of the grant is for supplies, and there is only one restriction on what supplies it can be used for.  Anyone want to guess what that one restriction is?

[Brandon]

My wife just texted me today to say she has received a grant for her home daycare, to help with lost income, additional sanitation equipment, etc.  Part of the grant is for supplies, and there is only one restriction on what supplies it can be used for.  Anyone want to guess what that one restriction is?

Cleaning supplies?

[jemacedo9]

As of May 22nd, I've finished school (all tests and assignments completed the week of May 10-16). Unfortunately, my county is still a hotspot for cases; lockdown orders are due to expire June 4th (extended from a statewide opening on May 8th). The borough of Chambersburg attempted to force a reopening, but the governor threatened to cut state funding - that shut up any naysayers.

As for the state, 49 counties (73%) will partially reopen by tonight. Most of the state bar Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and parts of Amish Country have opened, including Harrisburg.

Across the state line in Maryland, a statewide partial reopening happened a week ago, only for cases to spike. Oops.

Gov Wolf has hinted that more counties will go from red to yellow and some from yellow to green...stay tuned, to be announced today...

[Brandon]

Sweden experient turning out not so good.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-strategy-idUSKBN22W2YC

So compared to their Nordic neighbors, they kept their economy more open, yet have a higher death rate and their economy is no better off. 

Sweden might not be as well off as their Nordic neighbors, but compared to France, the UK, Italy, Spain, Andorra, Belgium, and San Marino, they look rather good.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[kphoger]

My wife just texted me today to say she has received a grant for her home daycare, to help with lost income, additional sanitation equipment, etc.  Part of the grant is for supplies, and there is only one restriction on what supplies it can be used for.  Anyone want to guess what that one restriction is?

Cleaning supplies?

Aw, come on, man...

Toilet paper!

[ftballfan]

As of May 22nd, I've finished school (all tests and assignments completed the week of May 10-16). Unfortunately, my county is still a hotspot for cases; lockdown orders are due to expire June 4th (extended from a statewide opening on May 8th). The borough of Chambersburg attempted to force a reopening, but the governor threatened to cut state funding - that shut up any naysayers.

As for the state, 49 counties (73%) will partially reopen by tonight. Most of the state bar Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and parts of Amish Country have opened, including Harrisburg.

Across the state line in Maryland, a statewide partial reopening happened a week ago, only for cases to spike. Oops.

The spike in cases might not be related to the partial reopening; it might be tied to an increased number of tests being given.

Bars, restaurants, and retail were allowed to open (dine in) in my county and 31 others in Michigan. Most of the chain restaurants appear to be drive thru and/or takeout only (the local A&W might be open for dine-in; they kept their lobby open for takeout the entire time in part due to its location in the middle of town with a small and tight drive-thru area). Some local restaurants are open for dine-in, while at least two are remaining take-out only for now (the two I know of that are remaining take-out only have very small and cramped indoor seating areas; one of the two will allow people to buy beer to drink while they're waiting for their take-out)

[ozarkman417]

Churches are now considered "essential" now..

Your neighborhood church opening vs a megachurch are two totally different things.. A church in a Springfield Suburb has at least 500-1k members in a congregation.

[kphoger]

Churches are now considered "essential" now..

Your neighborhood church opening vs a megachurch are two totally different things.. A church in a Springfield Suburb has at least 500-1k members in a congregation.

"Considered" by Trump, that is.  The laws haven't actually changed, as I understand it.

At least in Kansas, churches have been allowed to remain open, but only if they met a whole host of tough-to-follow guidelines.  I know a single congregation in Wichita that has already resumed services during the recent 10-person limit.  (There may be more I'm unaware of, surely.)

[ozarkman417]

The church I mentioned earlier has been streaming their services long before COVID-19 was a thing. As a result, I haven't really needed to enter the building in months. Other churches have gone to meeting via ZOOM or similar software.

[kphoger]

It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

[Roadgeekteen]

It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

My church has had us do communion at home, it's different but still doable (sort of).

[kphoger]

It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

My church has had us do communion at home, it's different but still doable (sort of).

That doesn't really work for denominations in which only an ordained pastor/priest can administer the sacrament.  My parents' church is one such denomination.  The pastor offers in-home communion, but it isn't really feasible to go to every single congregant's home.

[jeffandnicole]

It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

On the other hand, communion just became a whole bottle of wine Christ's blood, along with cheese and crackers wafers!

[kphoger]

It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

On the other hand, communion just became a whole bottle of wine Christ's blood Rioja, along with cheese and crackers wafers a box of Triscuits and tapenade!

Edited for accuracy.

[US71]

It's been brought up before, but not everything a church does can be done online.  Can't take communion through a computer screen, for example.

On the other hand, communion just became a whole bottle of wine Christ's blood Rioja, along with cheese and crackers wafers a box of Triscuits and tapenade!

Edited for accuracy.

[webny99]

My wife just texted me today to say she has received a grant for her home daycare, to help with lost income, additional sanitation equipment, etc.  Part of the grant is for supplies, and there is only one restriction on what supplies it can be used for.  Anyone want to guess what that one restriction is?

Cleaning supplies?

Aw, come on, man...
Toilet paper!

That's a cleaning supply in my book! 

[noelbotevera]

Following Gov. Wolf's announcement today, 17 (23% of PA's counties) move into the green phase, AKA complete reopening next week. These are all in the northern part of the state, north of I-80. My county (Franklin) plus counties in the Allentown area move to yellow phase (partial reopening), with the Philadelphia area partially reopening on June 5th. Come June 5th, the entire state of PA is reopened to some extent.

Looks like my plans to go to Rochester will work out after all; I can stay in a hotel in Mansfield or Coudersport then travel up to Rochester/Buffalo/Southern Tier from there.

[SEWIGuy]

Churches have never been closed.  Just their buildings.

And any church who willingly brings people together in an unsafe manner during a pandemic probably needs to read the Bible a little more closely.

[74/171FAN]

Following Gov. Wolf's announcement today, 17 (23% of PA's counties) move into the green phase, AKA complete reopening next week. These are all in the northern part of the state, north of I-80. My county (Franklin) plus counties in the Allentown area move to yellow phase (partial reopening), with the Philadelphia area partially reopening on June 5th. Come June 5th, the entire state of PA is reopened to some extent.

Looks like my plans to go to Rochester will work out after all; I can stay in a hotel in Mansfield or Coudersport then travel up to Rochester/Buffalo/Southern Tier from there.

It would be more accurate to state that the rest of Central PA (minus Lancaster County) and the rest of northeast PA (minus Lackawanna County (Scranton)) move into yellow next week then the rest of PA on June 5th.

Anyway I am planning a road trip next weekend to get some Central PA routes I have not finished yet (at least PA 641 and PA 35 tentatively).