Coronavirus pandemic

[Sctvhound]

This morning's MIT model (https://covid19-projections.com/):

US projected mean: 184,015 (-11,691 from last week)

NY: 32,851 (-642)
NJ: 15,476 (-2,010)
IL: 15,262 (-3,733). Projecting 6,189 more deaths in Cook County (Chicago)
PA: 11,246 (-2,121). Projecting 1,969 more deaths in Philadelphia County
CA: 10,233 (+654). Projecting 3,102 more deaths in Los Angeles County
MA: 9,645 (-635)
OH: 6,885 (+1,073)
MI: 6,715 (-257)
IN: 5,953 (-788)
FL: 5,386 (-147). Projecting 721 more deaths in Miami-Dade County.
TX: 5,287 (-1,098)
CT: 5,222 (-194)
MD: 5,176 (+43)
GA: 4,796 (+639)
LA: 3,908 (+50)
AZ: 3,902 (-475)
CO: 3,561 (-208)
MN: 3,471 (-163)
VA: 3,144 (-622)
MS: 2,646 (+95)
MO: 2,378 (-94)
NC: 2,204 (-237)
IA: 2,177 (-447)
AL: 1,894 (-483)
RI: 1,471 (+123)
WA: 1,406 (-64)
SC: 1,297 (-170)
NM: 1,229 (+17)
DE: 1,034 (+25)
WI: 909 (-17)
KY: 868 (+212)
NV: 850 (-14)
DC: 800 (-181)
NH: 740 (+60)
NE: 694 (+161)
TN: 581 (+12)
OK: 471 (-56)
UT: 341 (+25)
KS: 319 (-88)
AR: 245 (-3)
ND: 227 (+4)
OR: 215 (-28)
SD: 205 (-34)
PR: 171 (-39)
WV: 128 (-34)
ME: 112 (-26)
ID: 104 (+3)
VT: 67 (-8)
WY: 31 (+12)
HI: 25 (-3)
MT: 21 (-3)
AK: 13 (-1)
Guam: 9 (-2)
Virgin Islands: 9 (-2)

Some encouraging numbers, but you gotta watch for a spike after the Memorial Day weekend. States like Alabama which have very few ICU beds could get hit really hard.

And in the counties where the outbreak is worst, it's gonna be a very long summer (like Chicago). Their model is projecting 1/4 of Cook County will get infected by this by August.

Also Brazil is really gonna get hit over the summer. Their model is projecting 164,798 deaths by August, rising to nearly 3,000 a day by then, in a nation 1/3 smaller in population than the US. They also project almost 92,000 deaths for Mexico.

[catch22]

Churches have never been closed.  Just their buildings.

And any church who willingly brings people together in an unsafe manner during a pandemic probably needs to read the Bible a little more closely.

I really don't understand why more people don't get this ("It's the people, not the building," as a friend of mine is fond of saying).  At my church (which has no plans to reopen our building for Sunday worship any time soon, and is under no pressure from anyone to do so), we've seen an amazing increase in the amount of people participating in outreach programs of one sort or another, both with their time and their wallets.  That's what it's all about.

[bandit957]

A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

[Max Rockatansky]

A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

No, if anything the affects of the on the world virus have been grating and annoying more than anything.  I've been exposed to at least a solid 100 plus people five days a week at work through out all this lock down stuff.  Similarly my wife is exposed to people who are homeless and otherwise destitute at one her behavioral health job in downtown Fresno.  While I maintain that I "think" that I already got sick, I can't imagine that there is anyway that I haven't been exposed numerous times by now.  I can't look at the situation at hand and really bring myself to worry about the prospect of getting sick.  I'm much more worried about long term health problems like heart issues or my family having a bad track record with getting cancer.

To that end regarding outdoor activity, I haven't strayed from it and will only continue to expand what I do now that restrictions are expanding.  Since I returned from Mexico twelve weeks ago I've run 50 miles in eleven of those weeks.  As of late I've been able to comfortably resume my usual back water hiking routines out in the mountains.  I would rather just be away from people in general even before the pandemic and nothing that is going on presently has changed my mindset towards that.  Hopefully the National Parks open soon, but for now I'm settling for much more rugged BLM and National Forest lands to spend my down time.  Either way, it's far more productive than spending my time wallowing in a city full of upset people. 

[gonealookin]

A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

I pick #2.  As of yesterday our county of just under 50,000 residents has had 26 identified cases.  24 of those people have recovered and 2 cases are listed as still "active".  No deaths.  Even if I hit the 1:2000 lottery I think I'll come out the other side OK.  Once I returned from Florida at the very beginning of it (March 19) I haven't traveled more than 50 miles from home since this started, and I'd add my concerns might be different in a crowded city.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Minnesota's governor caves to pressure and will allow churches to open at 25%. He seems to be taking a middle of the road path that no one is happy with; people on the left fee he's giving in to pressure from the right and religious communities who announced they would no longer abide by quarantine restrictions, and the right and restaurant sectors who feel he's not opening enough.

[Bruce]

Churches have never been closed.  Just their buildings.

And any church who willingly brings people together in an unsafe manner during a pandemic probably needs to read the Bible a little more closely.

Yep. Washington has had drive-thru or online church services since March. There's plenty of evidence that regular church routines (singing, close socializing, eating together) spread the virus, to deadly effect.

[stormwatch7721]

I'm going with #1. I'm concerned about the second wave

[Max Rockatansky]

California apparently has started a new contact trace program:

https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/california-launches-covid-19-contact-tracing-program/

Interestingly the program is based off of responses given by someone who has tested positive as opposed to something like cell phone data.  It might not be fool proof but I would imagine asking people who they interacted with is a far more accurate means of finding out who might have been exposed. 

[Roadgeekteen]

A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

2. I'm not super afraid, I'm just taking proper precautions.

[webny99]

A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?
1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

2) No.

I am not concerned that I personally will contract the virus. It appears that weather has some impact, just like the flu, so my fear will probably follow a course roughly inverse to the outside temperature and continue to do so until a vaccine is available.

I believe a second wave is likely, and when it hits it will almost certainly catch areas that didn't get hit hard the first time off guard.
But right now I'm taking this whole thing a day - an hour, even - at a time, so I couldn't spend to much time worrying about it. I'm just enjoying the mildly encouraging numbers, the gradual re-opening, and the beautiful spring weather.

[Bruce]

Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

[Max Rockatansky]

An observation I've had about the National Park closures here in Central California.  This weekend and the previous weekend I've noticed that there has been huge uptick on some really remote and kind of dicey trails.   Most of the notable trails in the National Forests are seeing much casual hiker traffic.  The Lewis Creek Trail of Sierra National Forest this weekend seems to be a huge draw given Redrock Falls is still moving fast.  The problem is with the Lewis Creek Trail is that a bridge is out and it requires hikers use a rope to cross Lewis Creek by way of a log.  That's a pretty dicey proposition even for experienced hikers much less the casual crowd that usually frequents Yosemite.  Apparently one person already drowned attempted to cross the similarly fast moving Willow Creek. 

I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend.  Apparently the only National Park I. The area that has reopened is Pinnacles by way of hiking or cycling.  Considering Pinnacles will see 105F degree temperatures this week that kind of seems silly to have them even slightly open whereas Yosemite, Sequoia, And Kings Canyon are all closed...in much cooler climates.  It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

For what it's worth I'm planning on Lewis Creek myself this next Thursday when the crowds die down.  Considering how fast I just saw the creek moving in a friend's video I don't think I'll be making an attempt over that log unless the current slows considerably. 

[hbelkins]

As for Tim's poll, I'm doing a #2. (Insert your own pun there.)

As for church services, a number of denominations practice anointing or the laying on of hands during prayers. And there is a Bible verse regarding not forsaking assembly. So they most assuredly cannot fulfill the same worship obligations doing an online service.

A number of court cases are being won by plaintiffs suing to overturn government orders closing churches to in-person.

[gonealookin]

I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend....It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

I was out and about the south shore of Tahoe today and was surprised at how quiet it is, much like a typical weekday.  Keeping all the hotels and campgrounds closed seems to have been effective.  However, it's the last day of cool weather before the warm stuff moves in.  We could see more day trippers the next couple days.  Even coming from Sacramento, though, it's 4 hours round trip in the car, on the long side especially for families.

[Max Rockatansky]

I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend....It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

I was out and about the south shore of Tahoe today and was surprised at how quiet it is, much like a typical weekday.  Keeping all the hotels and campgrounds closed seems to have been effective.  However, it's the last day of cool weather before the warm stuff moves in.  We could see more day trippers the next couple days.  Even coming from Sacramento, though, it's 4 hours round trip in the car, on the long side especially for families.

I noticed a huge surge in Sierra National Forest on the Stevenson Creek Trail.  There is no way that trail would have been such a huge draw if Yosemite was even partially opened.  It was interesting coming back from the Falls and seeing a massive amount of cars lining up a one-lane road on a weekday.  I don't think I'm the Fresno/Central Valley Area that many are willing sacrifice their holiday weekend at this point.  It's been busy enough that my wife talked me out of cycling on the road we originally planned on Sierra National Forest since they campgrounds apparently partially reopened. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't South Lake Tahoe still have a pretty hard local restriction on recreation from outsiders?  I seem recall El Dorado County had a similar order for awhile.  I would imagine that the Nevada side has some differing interests given that there are casinos involved on the lake shore.  Comparatively speaking Fresno County never did their own order and other local counties like Madera and Tulare have largely been pretty lax. 

[jakeroot]

Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

This is pretty heavy. Especially when you click the image and realize (or remember) just how large front pages are.

[Max Rockatansky]

Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

This is pretty heavy. Especially when you click the image and realize (or remember) just how large front pages are.

If only people on the whole cared as much as much about things heart disease or cancer.  Not to dismiss the number of people that have died from COVID-19 but it is curious how pretty much every other cause of death is being pretty much overlooked in mainstream media...even when they are still more prevalent.  I guess that I might be jaded by the fact that I just lost an uncle suddenly of heart disease and somehow that was "routine." . 

For reference the latest statistics on heart disease deaths in the United States was 647,000 deaths annually.  If 100,000 is scary than how is 647,000 not?...am I missing something beyond it being a known quantity?

[Rothman]

Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

This is pretty heavy. Especially when you click the image and realize (or remember) just how large front pages are.

If only people on the whole cared as much as much about things heart disease or cancer.  Not to dismiss the number of people that have died from COVID-19 but it is curious how pretty much every other cause of death is being pretty much overlooked in mainstream media...even when they are still more prevalent.  I guess that I might be jaded by the fact that I just lost an uncle suddenly of heart disease and somehow that was "routine." . 

For reference the latest statistics on heart disease deaths in the United States was 647,000 deaths annually.  If 100,000 is scary than how is 647,000 not?...am I missing something beyond it being a known quantity?

It's not a matter of exclusivity and I find the comparison less than profound.  I can't catch COPD from you, just for starters.


We've been spending millions on heart disease research already, COVID is new...

*sigh*

[Max Rockatansky]

Sunday's Times front page:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

This is pretty heavy. Especially when you click the image and realize (or remember) just how large front pages are.

If only people on the whole cared as much as much about things heart disease or cancer.  Not to dismiss the number of people that have died from COVID-19 but it is curious how pretty much every other cause of death is being pretty much overlooked in mainstream media...even when they are still more prevalent.  I guess that I might be jaded by the fact that I just lost an uncle suddenly of heart disease and somehow that was "routine." . 

For reference the latest statistics on heart disease deaths in the United States was 647,000 deaths annually.  If 100,000 is scary than how is 647,000 not?...am I missing something beyond it being a known quantity?

It's not a matter of exclusivity and I find the comparison less than profound.  I can't catch COPD from you, just for starters.


We've been spending millions on heart disease research already, COVID is new...

*sigh*

But you can have heart problems or cancer and not even know it.  In some cases you might not really even have any symptoms until it is too late.  I wasn't really trying to insinuate anything was "profound,"  rather my own lack of an understand of why COVID-19 is somehow more scary for the average person.  The question of the day was "does COVID-19"  still scare you?  I think there is plenty of merit to questioning the logic behind why a disease that is less likely to kill scares more than others that are more likely to do the deed.  That isn't to say that there isn't a problem nor any of COVID-19 deaths aren't tragic.

[gonealookin]

I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend....It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

I was out and about the south shore of Tahoe today and was surprised at how quiet it is, much like a typical weekday.  Keeping all the hotels and campgrounds closed seems to have been effective.  However, it's the last day of cool weather before the warm stuff moves in.  We could see more day trippers the next couple days.  Even coming from Sacramento, though, it's 4 hours round trip in the car, on the long side especially for families.

I noticed a huge surge in Sierra National Forest on the Stevenson Creek Trail.  There is no way that trail would have been such a huge draw if Yosemite was even partially opened.  It was interesting coming back from the Falls and seeing a massive amount of cars lining up a one-lane road on a weekday.  I don't think I'm the Fresno/Central Valley Area that many are willing sacrifice their holiday weekend at this point.  It's been busy enough that my wife talked me out of cycling on the road we originally planned on Sierra National Forest since they campgrounds apparently partially reopened. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't South Lake Tahoe still have a pretty hard local restriction on recreation from outsiders?  I seem recall El Dorado County had a similar order for awhile.  I would imagine that the Nevada side has some differing interests given that there are casinos involved on the lake shore.  Comparatively speaking Fresno County never did their own order and other local counties like Madera and Tulare have largely been pretty lax. 

True, there are still official restrictions on travel to Tahoe in El Dorado County.

Nonessential travel by visitors into much of the south side of the Lake Tahoe area remains banned. The city of South Lake Tahoe announced in a news release Wednesday that property owners, such as vacation home owners, can return to the area, "but visitors are still asked not to be here at this time."

El Dorado County has also banned nonessential travel to the unincorporated Tahoe basin area indefinitely, a measure designed to limit travel-based transmission of the coronavirus following the expiration of its separate, countywide coronavirus health order. El Dorado was California's first county to let its local stay-at-home or shelter-in-place order expire, while remaining under the statewide stay-at-home mandate.

Realistically that ban isn't enforceable, short of putting up some checkpoint on US 50 and demanding to know people's reason for traveling, which might raise a legal issue or three.  The only real enforcement actions in the last two months were carried out against a few property owners who were continuing to operate their properties as vacation rentals.  We've succeeded in keeping people out by eliminating the availability of any place to stay overnight, unless you have a key to private property or are willing to do "dispersed camping" on USFS land (i.e. just pull off a road and set up without any campground-type facilities, which is perfectly legal).

The tentative date for allowing the hotel/casino properties on the Nevada side to reopen is June 4.  I suppose restrictions on the Nevada vacation rentals would be lifted at that time as well.

[Max Rockatansky]

I know a lot would say that people should just home, to that end while they might not be fully wrong it's really not what reality is on a holiday weekend....It kind of feels like the National Park Service is setting the BLM and Forest Service up for failure by not really even partially opening by now. 

I was out and about the south shore of Tahoe today and was surprised at how quiet it is, much like a typical weekday.  Keeping all the hotels and campgrounds closed seems to have been effective.  However, it's the last day of cool weather before the warm stuff moves in.  We could see more day trippers the next couple days.  Even coming from Sacramento, though, it's 4 hours round trip in the car, on the long side especially for families.

I noticed a huge surge in Sierra National Forest on the Stevenson Creek Trail.  There is no way that trail would have been such a huge draw if Yosemite was even partially opened.  It was interesting coming back from the Falls and seeing a massive amount of cars lining up a one-lane road on a weekday.  I don't think I'm the Fresno/Central Valley Area that many are willing sacrifice their holiday weekend at this point.  It's been busy enough that my wife talked me out of cycling on the road we originally planned on Sierra National Forest since they campgrounds apparently partially reopened. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't South Lake Tahoe still have a pretty hard local restriction on recreation from outsiders?  I seem recall El Dorado County had a similar order for awhile.  I would imagine that the Nevada side has some differing interests given that there are casinos involved on the lake shore.  Comparatively speaking Fresno County never did their own order and other local counties like Madera and Tulare have largely been pretty lax. 

True, there are still official restrictions on travel to Tahoe in El Dorado County.

Nonessential travel by visitors into much of the south side of the Lake Tahoe area remains banned. The city of South Lake Tahoe announced in a news release Wednesday that property owners, such as vacation home owners, can return to the area, "but visitors are still asked not to be here at this time."

El Dorado County has also banned nonessential travel to the unincorporated Tahoe basin area indefinitely, a measure designed to limit travel-based transmission of the coronavirus following the expiration of its separate, countywide coronavirus health order. El Dorado was California's first county to let its local stay-at-home or shelter-in-place order expire, while remaining under the statewide stay-at-home mandate.

Realistically that ban isn't enforceable, short of putting up some checkpoint on US 50 and demanding to know people's reason for traveling, which might raise a legal issue or three.  The only real enforcement actions in the last two months were carried out against a few property owners who were continuing to operate their properties as vacation rentals.  We've succeeded in keeping people out by eliminating the availability of any place to stay overnight, unless you have a key to private property or are willing to do "dispersed camping" on USFS land (i.e. just pull off a road and set up without any campground-type facilities, which is perfectly legal).

The tentative date for allowing the hotel/casino properties on the Nevada side to reopen is June 4.  I suppose restrictions on the Nevada vacation rentals would be lifted at that time as well.

I would have to imagine the Nevada Side of the Lake pushing for a reopening is going to force the California side to do the same.  There isn't much that South Lake Tahoe or El Dorado County can do to stop everyone from going to Nevada (Sand Harbor sounds nice right now) especially with only 67 confirmed cases.  Granted I'm not up to par on Tahoe area politics to know if what state does really greases the wheels in the other. 

[Brandon]

Sunday's New York Times front page:

They're a local New York City paper.  If anything, they should be critical of Cuomo's response whereby he put sick people in the nursing homes.

[Brandon]

A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

#2.  Use proper precautions, but don't freak out.  I'm also sick of these stupid "Alone Together"  PSAs.

As for a second wave, until there's actual evidence for one and not just conjecture, count me skeptical.

[Max Rockatansky]

A quick poll for readers! As of now, are you afraid of this virus?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Depends on if you're indoors or outdoors

I pick #3.

#2.  Use proper precautions, but don't freak out.  I'm also sick of these stupid "Alone Together"  PSAs.

As for a second wave, until there's actual evidence for one and not just conjecture, count me skeptical.

Those PSAs alone have essentially rendered TV unwatchable.  I don't recall a time when I've hit the mute button so many times during commercial breaks.  I am seriously considering trying the MRN radio broadcast of the Coca Cola 600 even just to avoid the onslaught (I noticed radio is more mellow on COVID than TV). 

Also, those PSAs tend to remind me of how far I am behind the times with tech.  I barely know how to Skype and barely even found out Face Time was a thing until late last year.  If you believe those commercials everyone is on some sort of video chat platform.