Tropical cyclone tracking thread

[CNGL-Leudimin]

Fun fact: Isaac is the only original I name remaining in the lists. All others have been replaced at least once, most of them twice: Isabel => Ida, Ivan => Igor => Ian, Irene => Irma => Idalia, Iris => Ingrid => Imelda, Isidore => Ike => Isaias (this last one is as of yet unused because 2014 didn't have that many storms).

Jebi has now made landfall in Japan.

[Interstate 69 Fan]

Helene is on the way as well. 80% chance to form in 5 days.

[ET21]

Looks like 12-1am is the projected landfall for tonight with Gordon just east of New Orleans as a cat 1

[bing101]

http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-tropical-storm-gordon-20180904-story.html#


There is a report of Gordon heading to Alabama as of the time of the post made by the LA Times.

[Bruce]

Typhoon Jebi has left a pretty big trail of damage across Honshu, killing at least 6 in Japan

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/04/world/asia/typhoon-jebi-japan-evacuations.html

[Hurricane Rex]

It sounds like Gordon has made landfall as a 70 mph TS. Also, in all honesty, Isaac should've been retired after 2012.

LG-TP260

[Interstate 69 Fan]

Florence pulled a surprise, intensifying to Category 2 status.

[Hurricane Rex]

Florence pulled a surprise, intensifying to Category 2 4 status.

That's the newest advisory now.

Edit: switched 3 for 4.

[ET21]

The remnants of Gordon could hit Chicago towards the weekend based on current tracks, marking the first time in 10 years we've had two tropical systems hit the area. 2008 had Gustav and Ike, and we had Alberto earlier this season.

[US71]

The remnants of Gordon could hit Chicago towards the weekend based on current tracks, marking the first time in 10 years we've had two tropical systems hit the area. 2008 had Gustav and Ike, and we had Alberto earlier this season.

Remnants being the operative term, as it appears to be quickly breaking up. We  were scheduled to receive 4-6 inches of rain, but has been dialed back to 1-2 inches.

[jp the roadgeek]

Hurricane Florence could be an issue by next weekend for many along the Atlantic coast from the Outer Banks up to New England.  One model has it hitting somewhere around Ocean City, MD, while another takes it up across Long Island and into New England.  Either way, those still recovering from Sandy face a possible repeat.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/09/05/hurricane-florence-could-hit-east-coast-next-week-atlantic-storm/1202464002/

[Hurricane Rex]

Florence temporarily down to a TS again (that was quick), 2 systems have a 70%+ chance of being developed. Hello Helene and Isaac. One is taking the southern track that can spell trouble down the road. Again, beware the I (potentially).

LG-TP260

[CNGL-Leudimin]

In 2014 there wasn't an I at all (there were so few storms, it stopped just before Isaias which thus is yet to be used for the first time). In both 2015 and 2016 the I (Ida in 2015, Ian in 2016) remained a tropical storm out in the sea. So not all years the I is a threat (in fact most seasons before 1995 didn't reach I, however since then it has been a regular occurrence).

[Interstate 69 Fan]

PTC 08L has formed

[Hurricane Rex]

Olivia's cone now has Hawaii in it.

LG-TP260

[bing101]

https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/residents-and-stores-preparing-for-hurricane-olivia/1426577051


Here is the latest on Hurricane Olivia preparations in Hawaii.

[ftballfan]

How many early-alphabet names from the 1979-84 lists are still in use?

Some hurricanes I were surprised didn't warrant retiring: Juan (1985 - did get retired after 2003), Gordon (1994), Bonnie (1998), Emily (2005). Three of the four were billion-dollar storms while the fourth killed over 1,000 people

[CNGL-Leudimin]

Depend on what "early-alphabet" is. This year up to I all but Gordon (which replaced Gilbert after 1988) were in the original list. In fact list IV (the one used this year) is the list that has seen the least changes since its introduction, as only four names have been retired from the list: Gilbert in 1988, Joan (but not Miriam on the Eastern Pacific) also in 1988, Keith in 2000 and Sandy in 2012. Before 2005 it was list III, which managed to go until 1999 without any names retired. Meanwhile, no iteration of list V has been reused in its entirety, at least one name has been retired every time it has been used.

As for hurricanes that didn't get retired, Gordon wasn't retired because Haiti failed to send a delegate to the WMO, and at the time Mexico wasn't too keen to request name retirement, thus allowing Emily to become the first and only name so far to survive in the list after a category 5 hurricane.

[Interstate 69 Fan]

Florence rapidly intensifying, Satelite estimates have it as a Category 3, forecasted to peak near Category 5, and then make landfall around Wilmington, NC as a Cat 4. States of Emergencies have been declared for SC, NC, and VA
Mangkhut just passed very close to Guam as a 105 mph Cat 2.
Helene & Isaac are also hurricanes out in the open Atlantic.

[ftballfan]

Florence has had an odd track history. Until its sharp westward turn a few days ago, it was tracking like most hurricanes in the central Atlantic north of the typical Caribbean track (they generally go north into the open Central Atlantic [a la Helene's projected track]). However, it's still not as odd as Lenny (which went west to east across the Caribbean Sea) or Jeanne (which did a big loop to put itself on a bee line for Florida after heading due north from Hispaniola).

An odd fact about Category 5 hurricanes: All of them have affected land in some way, even after weakening

[Interstate 69 Fan]

Cat 4 Now

[bing101]

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38969064/tropical-storm-warning-issued-for-parts-of-the-state-as-olivia-nears


Update Hawaii Hurricane Olivia Watch still at play for Maui and Big Island.

[bing101]

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/florence-becomes-major-hurricane-in-atlantic/22996349


Now Maryland has called for state of Emergency for Florence.

[hotdogPi]

Florence might hit Florence, SC. Would this be the most populous city in the United States to be hit by a hurricane with the same name?

[triplemultiplex]

Florence is really starting to look like it's going to park itself over the Carolinas after landfall.  That's going to be more significant than how strong it is when it hits land.  Good luck down there this weekend.