Tropical cyclone tracking thread

Started by CNGL-Leudimin, May 07, 2015, 11:08:01 AM

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empirestate

Does anybody know of a map showing which specific areas are flooded?


epzik8

It looks like Atlantic "potential Tropical Cyclone Ten" will impact the East Coast. Great.
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paulthemapguy

Quote from: empirestate on August 28, 2017, 09:33:17 AM
Does anybody know of a map showing which specific areas are flooded?

The bright green area for "flood warning" might be the vastest such area I've ever seen.  The Houston area has gotten 12-25 inches of rain, and another 20 inches are forecast.  See the following link; click around on the warning map to see details for specific areas, and also look at "storm total precip."

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

The following link is to the rain still forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093137.shtml?rainqpf#contents
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empirestate

Quote from: paulthemapguy on August 28, 2017, 10:34:33 AM
Quote from: empirestate on August 28, 2017, 09:33:17 AM
Does anybody know of a map showing which specific areas are flooded?

The bright green area for "flood warning" might be the vastest such area I've ever seen.  The Houston area has gotten 12-25 inches of rain, and another 20 inches are forecast.  See the following link; click around on the warning map to see details for specific areas, and also look at "storm total precip."

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

The following link is to the rain still forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093137.shtml?rainqpf#contents

I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashion–essentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.

paulthemapguy

Quote from: empirestate on August 28, 2017, 12:42:34 PM
I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashion–essentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.

You'd basically need a live satellite feed to do that, through the cloudcover creating the intense rainfall, so that's not going to happen.  I'm sure everyone will be all over it once the storm moves on, due to the ensuing media presence, though.
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ET21

Quote from: paulthemapguy on August 28, 2017, 04:10:52 PM
Quote from: empirestate on August 28, 2017, 12:42:34 PM
I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashion–essentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.

You'd basically need a live satellite feed to do that, through the cloudcover creating the intense rainfall, so that's not going to happen.  I'm sure everyone will be all over it once the storm moves on, due to the ensuing media presence, though.

Most of the storm surge should have receded, the only problem is trying to differentiate what was once storm surge and what was dumped from the storm
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empirestate

Quote from: paulthemapguy on August 28, 2017, 04:10:52 PM
Quote from: empirestate on August 28, 2017, 12:42:34 PM
I've seen a few of these point data flood maps. What I'm really looking for (and I realize this takes some time to gather) is something showing the actual flooded locations in a topographic/bathymetric fashion–essentially, an up-to-date shoreline map of eastern Texas.

You'd basically need a live satellite feed to do that, through the cloudcover creating the intense rainfall, so that's not going to happen.  I'm sure everyone will be all over it once the storm moves on, due to the ensuing media presence, though.

Low-level aerial would work, too; anything showing the areal extent of the flooding, rather than just "this flood gauge is at major stage", etc.

CNGL-Leudimin

Since I track anythng anywhere in the world, I have developed a series of rules for me to classify a tropical cyclone as such:
If the NHC, CPHC, or JTWC number a depression, so I do. I also number those tropical storms that get named by the official RSMCs and overlooked by the JTWC, and those tropical depressions the Philippine PAGASA unofficially names (thus I have more tracks of tropical cyclones around Philippines than elsewhere).
Yes, I do use Philippine names, mainly for reference purposes. However I don't go with their political issues, and thus I have recorded the Philippine name of typhoon Melor (2015) as Nonoy instead of Nona (operationally I didn't mention a Philippine name, referring to it as simply Melor).
I count Eastern and Central Pacific together, but keeping the E and C labels (Thus the last depression of 2015 East of the Dateline was 31C for me). I also split the Southern hemisphere in three and labelling these areas R, U and F and with three different counts (going along with the RSMCs), rather than the two lettered S and P with a single numbering the JTWC does. I also keep the same designation for the entire life of a tropical cyclone (i.e. I kept Otto last year as 16L and didn't change to 23E when it reached the EPac).
If it's named (by Japan in the case of the WPac), it's a tropical storm. And likewise, I'll keep it as a tropical depression even if the JTWC considers it a tropical storm. The exception are some Australian "tropical lows", they don't classify them as cyclones until they have gale force winds halfway around the center. In that case, if it has gale force winds as recognized by Australia even if they don't extend halfway around the center, it's a tropical storm (The NHC would name it anyway).
Any named tropical cyclone that doesn't reach hurricane force is a tropical storm. However, neither India (Northern Indian), Australia nor Fiji (South Pacific) use that name officially. In those cases, "tropical storm" corresponds to "cyclonic storm" and "severe cyclonic storm" in the Northern Indian, and to categories 1 and 2 of the Australian scale (BTW, the Saffir-Simpson, or "American", scale doesn't have a "strong tropical storm" category while the rest of the world does). Once the cyclone reaches hurricane strength, I change to the appropiate moniker: Hurricane, typhoon, or cyclone. Usually the JTWC will reach category 1 before the RMSC declares a storm to have reached hurricane force, but that's due to different measurement lapses.
Subtropical storms are totally ignored by me as they aren't tropical. That's why my list of Atlantic storms for 2007 starts with Barry, skipping Andrea.
And the latest, added today: I don't count potential tropical cyclones (neither subtropical storms), simply because they aren't tropical cyclones. Thus, the recently formed Tropical Storm Irma (near Cape Cabo Verde, its name replaces Irene) is counted by me as 10L, not 11L.
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Desert Man

Yes, terrible, terrible! There's even more. Irma might come to South FL next week (Sun the 9th?), but will cross the Antilles and Caribbean islands like Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. We're facing tropical moisture in Southern CA by Mon. (Labor day) - Hurricane then tropical storm Lidia in Baja Cal. headed to the north. Our highs will go down to the 90s by cloud cover and we need a lil' bit of rain - and preparations for possible flooding.
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berberry

Quote from: Desert Man on September 02, 2017, 12:54:40 PM
...Irma might come to South FL next week (Sun the 9th?)...

Ventusky shows it happening on Monday the 11th. Looks like Harvey might not be the most destructive hurricane of the season if this turns out to be close to the actual track of Irma. As I understand, Miami is already dealing with issues related to sea-level rise, and they're not well equipped to handle a major land-falling hurricane this year.

Of course it's still very early to be predicting a landfall, but it wouldn't hurt to go ahead and recognize that the water off the coast of Miami is exceedingly hot right now, and any hurricane that does strike is likely to strengthen just before landfall. The good news is that, unlike Harvey, Irma will apparently be giving those in her potential path a bit more time to prepare.

berberry

#160
The advisories are sounding worse and worse with every update. I just watched the report on MSNBC and they showed the latest model tracks, and they are almost all in agreement now that by next weekend the storm will be a Cat 3 centered just barely north of Cuba, approaching the southern tip of Florida. It is at that point that model disagreement begins, with some showing it moving up the east coast of Florida and eventually back out to the Atlantic and a later landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas, while others have it skirting Florida's West Coast or entering the Gulf. Regardless of which track the storm takes, Irma looks like a real threat. She appears to be taking a step south for every two or three steps west. That's not good.

bing101


bing101


US 89

Now a cat 4, and honestly it could be a cat 5 by tomorrow morning. Not good.

ET21

Quote from: roadguy2 on September 05, 2017, 12:44:10 AM
Now a cat 4, and honestly it could be a cat 5 by tomorrow morning. Not good.

Cat 5 this morning
The local weatherman, trust me I can be 99.9% right!
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CNGL-Leudimin

Yup. Irma is now Category 5, and that means it's going to be retired (unless its name is Emily, which isn't the case), and it already replaced Irene. I have it with 150 mph winds since I report 10 minute sustained ones like the WMO recommends, as opposed to the 1 minute the NHC uses.
Supporter of the construction of several running gags, including I-366 with a speed limit of 85 mph (137 km/h) and the Hypotenuse.

Please note that I may mention "invalid" FM channels, i.e. ending in an even number or down to 87.5. These are valid in Europe.

berberry

Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on September 05, 2017, 08:56:10 AM
I have it with 150 mph winds since I report 10 minute sustained ones like the WMO recommends, as opposed to the 1 minute the NHC uses.

Is the NHC wrong to use a one-minute rule? I'm trying to think of a reason this would be an issue. A 150 mph wind can do a lot of damage in one minute, but I'm no meteorologist and I suspect you probably have good reason to prefer a 10-minute rule.

In any case, Fox-4 News in Cape Coral, Florida is reporting top winds currently at 175 mph. If we had a Cat 6...

berberry

So there's been another update a couple hours ago, and Ventusky is showing what I would say is a nightmare scenario, in which Irma's eye comes into direct contact with Florida's East Coast at midday Sunday near Miami in what I guess would be called a half-landfall, then scrapes the coastline north all the way to Georgia before finally making a complete landfall late Monday afternoon somewhere near Savannah or Charleston.

If you aren't familiar with this website, which displays an averaged prediction based on the major computer models, don't worry, it's really easy to use. Try pressing the play button to see how the models' average has the storm tracking over the next week. You can easily jump to any date using the pop-up calendar and press play to see what happens from that point. You can also look at wind patterns from different elevations. Understand that anything beyond five days is highly speculative, but at least regarding Irma, the mainstream press has been following Ventusky's predictions, not the other way round.

paulthemapguy

Irma is currently at 185mph.  Totally insane.  And then Jose forms behind it, adding insult to injury for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Irma is the most intense hurricane to ever form in the open Atlantic, which is to say, outside the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.  All of this is partly thanks to record-high warmth reported in Atlantic waters this year.
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jeffandnicole

At least Jose is forecasted to curve away from Puerto Rico and the other islands, although it'll come pretty close to them.

In an ironic sort of way, Irma will keep Jose from being too strong of a Hurricane, although it will probably still approach Cat 3 windspeeds.

adventurernumber1

Hurricane Irma may possibly be an unwelcome tragedy ready to hit the country following the devastation of Hurricane Harvey in Texas and the Gulf Coast. This approaching hurricane could potentially be heavy hits for Florida, Georgia, and more: http://www.macon.com/news/local/article171343967.html

It is quite eerie having such a huge hurricane (Category 5) come so soon after such a huge one (Harvey) has just affected our country. But being a weatherfan, I will highly be tuning into this news as it happens over the next couple of weeks.
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1995hoo

#171
Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Gulf. Not moving much for now....hopefully it dissipates instead of heading north towards Texas.

My brother-in-law near Miami just called. He has to stay because he's a fireman stationed at FLL airport, but his wife and kids (and their cats) are leaving Thursday and don't know where they'll go. Nearest relatives are in Fort Myers, which isn't much of an option, and near Melbourne, which doesn't look much better. Ms1995hoo said if they really want to drive a thousand miles they can come here....the Auto Train is already booked solid for the rest of the week.
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CNGL-Leudimin

Quote from: 1995hoo on September 05, 2017, 10:14:50 PM
Tropical Depression 12 has formed in the Gulf. Not moving much for now....hopefully it dissipates instead of heading north towards Texas.

Fixed for me as I don't count potential cyclones that eventually don't form. Fortunately the now Tropical Storm Katia is forecast to head South instead.

Fun fact: Katia is the replacement name for Katrina, and we have now a Category 5 super hurricane (with another name).
Supporter of the construction of several running gags, including I-366 with a speed limit of 85 mph (137 km/h) and the Hypotenuse.

Please note that I may mention "invalid" FM channels, i.e. ending in an even number or down to 87.5. These are valid in Europe.

ET21

I don't think the small town of Cordington on the island of Barbuda exists anymore. Suffered a direct hit from Irma with 185 mph winds, gusting to 220+
The local weatherman, trust me I can be 99.9% right!
"Show where you're going, without forgetting where you're from"

Clinched:
IL: I-88, I-180, I-190, I-290, I-294, I-355, IL-390
IN: I-80, I-94
SD: I-190
WI: I-90, I-94
MI: I-94, I-196
MN: I-90

jeffandnicole

Quote from: CNGL-Leudimin on September 06, 2017, 05:07:13 AM
Quote from: 1995hoo on September 05, 2017, 10:14:50 PM
Tropical Depression 12 has formed in the Gulf. Not moving much for now....hopefully it dissipates instead of heading north towards Texas.

Fixed for me as I don't count potential cyclones that eventually don't form. Fortunately the now Tropical Storm Katia is forecast to head South instead.

Fun fact: Katia is the replacement name for Katrina, and we have now a Category 5 super hurricane (with another name).

So, as you may know, Hurricane names run in 6 year cycles.  If a tropical storm or hurricane forms and has a name, that name will be retired if it's a notable storm (well, usually).  Generally, if the name isn't used or the storm just sits out at sea and does no harm, they'll reuse the name 6 years later. 

So, the Fun Fact Here:  Irma was the replacement name for Hurricane Irene.  Obviously, Irma is going to be a one-hit wonder.  Hurricane Irene was used several times though:

1981: The first year Irene was used, Irene became a hurricane over sea, but never was a threat to land.  After it weakened, the storm eventually drifted over France, simply bringing rain to that country.
1987: Not used, as not enough storms formed to reach an I-named storm.
1993: Again, not used due to a quiet storm season.
1999: Irene was a hurricane, and even went over Cuba and Florida.  While it caused damage and even responsible for 4 deaths (which to me makes it a notable storm), the name continued to be reused.
2005: Irene became a hurricane but never posed a threat to land (This was a very active storm year, and was the year of Katrina).
2011: Irene became a hurricane again and caused damage, flooding and deaths throughout several Caribbean islands.  It caused over $15 Billion in damage from Florida to Maine, and even Canada.  It caused 58 deaths.  Finally, the name was retired.

Another fun fact: Harvey was admitted as a name the same year as Irene.  That name got one more cycle's worth of use.



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