NFL (2024 Season)

[epzik8]

I tweeted Sunday that Tyler Huntley was better than Lamar Jackson and someone replied "Didn't know Huntley was a unanimous MVP."

[thspfc]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

Green Bay should never be amongst the favorites for the Super Bowl. They nearly always choke when it matters.

That's certainly the elephant in the room with the Packers. They really do have all the pieces to finally win an NFC championship. Yes, that was the case last year and in 2014 (I don't think they were good enough in '16 or '19 so those weren't really "chokes"). But the fact that they've underperformed in years past doesn't change the fact that they have a great roster and a top 5 coach.

By the way, it's crazy how similar the last three Packers seasons have been, especially if they win out in this regular season. Looking at their three losses per year, you have an embarrassing early season loss to an out of division NFC team (Eagles in 2019, Bucs in 2020, Saints in 2021). Then, an ugly loss on the first Sunday of November in which their offense struggled quite a bit (Chargers in 2019, Vikings in 2020, Chiefs in 2021). Then, a road loss in late November (49ers in 2019, Colts in 2020, Vikings in 2021). They even lost 34-31 in week 11 of 2020 and 2021.

[JayhawkCO]

It doesn't seem right that it's almost Christmas and there's still three weeks of regular season left.

Packers 27, Browns 24
Cardinals 38, Colts 17
Falcons 32, Lions 30
Rams 28, Vikings 21
Jets 23, Jaguars 17
Eagles 21, Giants 13
Patriots 24, Bills 21
Bengals 34, Ravens 20
Chargers 31, Texans 14
Panthers 20, Buccaneers 14
Seahawks 38, Bears 10
Raiders 16, Broncos 13
Chiefs 27, Steelers 17
Cowboys 31, Washington 17
Dolphins 30, Saints 13

I'll take the Cardinals to rebound in a big way. People haven't been as quick to bail on them as they were on the Cowboys and Rams a few weeks ago (though maybe because there was more skepticism about the Cardinals to begin with). So, maybe, lessons were learned?

I worry about the Buccaneers in their first game without Chris Godwin. Still have them as second favorites to win the Super Bowl, but I think it could be ugly this Sunday.

I'll take Colts, Bucs, and Saints.  Tempted to take Broncos over Raiders, but then I remembered Drew Lock, a family friend alas. 

[I-39]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

Green Bay should never be amongst the favorites for the Super Bowl. They nearly always choke when it matters.

That's certainly the elephant in the room with the Packers. They really do have all the pieces to finally win an NFC championship. Yes, that was the case last year and in 2014 (I don't think they were good enough in '16 or '19 so those weren't really "chokes"). But the fact that they've underperformed in years past doesn't change the fact that they have a great roster and a top 5 coach.

But they still don't win when it matters. Doesn't matter if they have a top 5 coach or all the right pieces. They should've been just as dominate as the Patriots in the last decade and instead, they lose in the playoffs and make excuse after excuse.

[webny99]

...
The lesson learned is this: don't trust a team that lost to the Panthers and Lions by a combined 42 points and has zero playoff experience to win multiple playoff games.

The Buccaneers lost by a combined 46 points to the Saints last year, and beat that very team in the playoffs. The 2018 Patriots lost to the 5-11 Jags, 6-10 Lions, 7-9 Dolphins, and 9-7 Titans by a combined 64 points.

That's apples to oranges, for two reasons.

The first one is a parallel to my point that's been in your signature line for so long that I'm convinced you think it's a good take despite calling it awful: The 2018 Patriots had the greatest coach and QB of all time, and the 2020 Buccaneers had that same QB. Brady and Belichick have earned the benefit of the doubt that when the season ends, they will have done what they needed to do to get to the playoffs and win when they got there. They had combined for 27 playoff wins prior to 2018. Meanwhile Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury have a combined 0 playoff appearances and are 0-3 in their 3 most important games over the past 2 seasons. They have not proved anything when it comes to getting to the playoffs, much less having success when they get there.

Secondly, the 2018 (and 2019) Patriots did not have extremely talented rosters. You could argue that they were roughly equivalent talent-wise to some of the teams they lost to, just with a much better coach and quarterback. You can't tell me the Cardinals are roughly equivalent talent-wise to the Panthers and Lions. They're way more talented than both teams, especially the Lions. The Brady/Belichick Patriots were also known for finding their groove later in the season, with the 3 losses that contribute to that large point differential coming in Week 2, Week 3, and Week 10 (to a Titans team that finished with a winning record). They did not have a multi-score loss after their bye, and the loss to Miami is literally called "Miami Miracle". Nothing even remotely close to losing by 18 points to a 1-10-1 Lions team in Week 15 in terms of laying a massive egg in a so called "trap game"... notice how the term "trap game" itself is reserved for teams riding high that haven't proved anything yet.

So forgive me for looking at the body of work and not believing the Cardinals can win the Super Bowl by beating four straight teams with more experience than them until I see it happen.

[webny99]

Tempted to take Broncos over Raiders, but then I remembered Drew Lock, a family friend alas.

Really? OK, I guess I won't share this, then...

https://twitter.com/SquintsJrr/status/1472722507224338434

(Whoops, I think I just did!  )

[thspfc]

...
The lesson learned is this: don't trust a team that lost to the Panthers and Lions by a combined 42 points and has zero playoff experience to win multiple playoff games.

The Buccaneers lost by a combined 46 points to the Saints last year, and beat that very team in the playoffs. The 2018 Patriots lost to the 5-11 Jags, 6-10 Lions, 7-9 Dolphins, and 9-7 Titans by a combined 64 points.

That's apples to oranges, for two reasons.

The first one is a parallel to my point that's been in your signature line for so long that I'm convinced you think it's a good take despite calling it awful: The 2018 Patriots had the greatest coach and QB of all time, and the 2020 Buccaneers had that same QB. Brady and Belichick have earned the benefit of the doubt that when the season ends, they will have done what they needed to do to get to the playoffs and win when they got there. They had combined for 27 playoff wins prior to 2018. Meanwhile Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury have a combined 0 playoff appearances and are 0-3 in their 3 most important games over the past 2 seasons. They have not proved anything when it comes to getting to the playoffs, much less having success when they get there.

Secondly, the 2018 (and 2019) Patriots did not have extremely talented rosters. You could argue that they were roughly equivalent talent-wise to some of the teams they lost to, just with a much better coach and quarterback. You can't tell me the Cardinals are roughly equivalent talent-wise to the Panthers and Lions. They're way more talented than both teams, especially the Lions. The Brady/Belichick Patriots were also known for finding their groove later in the season, with the 3 losses that contribute to that large point differential coming in Week 2, Week 3, and Week 10 (to a Titans team that finished with a winning record). They did not have a multi-score loss after their bye, and the loss to Miami is literally called "Miami Miracle". Nothing even remotely close to losing by 18 points to a 1-10-1 Lions team in Week 15 in terms of laying a massive egg in a so called "trap game"... notice how the term "trap game" itself is reserved for teams riding high that haven't proved anything yet.

So forgive me for looking at the body of work and not believing the Cardinals can win the Super Bowl by beating four straight teams with more experience than them until I see it happen.

That's fair. The line in my signature is still an all-time bad paragraph though.

[JayhawkCO]

It doesn't seem right that it's almost Christmas and there's still three weeks of regular season left.

Packers 27, Browns 24
Cardinals 38, Colts 17
Falcons 32, Lions 30
Rams 28, Vikings 21
Jets 23, Jaguars 17
Eagles 21, Giants 13
Patriots 24, Bills 21
Bengals 34, Ravens 20
Chargers 31, Texans 14
Panthers 20, Buccaneers 14
Seahawks 38, Bears 10
Raiders 16, Broncos 13
Chiefs 27, Steelers 17
Cowboys 31, Washington 17
Dolphins 30, Saints 13

I'll take the Cardinals to rebound in a big way. People haven't been as quick to bail on them as they were on the Cowboys and Rams a few weeks ago (though maybe because there was more skepticism about the Cardinals to begin with). So, maybe, lessons were learned?

I worry about the Buccaneers in their first game without Chris Godwin. Still have them as second favorites to win the Super Bowl, but I think it could be ugly this Sunday.

I'll take Colts, Bucs, and Saints.  Tempted to take Broncos over Raiders, but then I remembered Drew Lock, a family friend alas.

Rescinding my Saints pick with the QB situation.

[thspfc]

Packers 27, Browns 24

Best prediction since week 6 in terms of points.

I'm not into the complaining about referees business. The NFL is not rigged; to suggest that it is is akin to taping a piece of paper to your forehead that says "I'm stupid".

That said, pass interference needs to be made challengeable and reviewable again. It's by far the most significant penalty in football, and it's also the most subjective. Those two traits don't mix well. Yes, it will add time to games that are already bordering on too long; that's a sacrifice that needs to be made in order to make a higher quality product for fans.

It's similar to the VAR debate in soccer. VAR has its issues, but if you actually use your brain and think about all the tough calls it's gotten right that referees missed instead of the few it's gotten wrong, you realize that it's had an overwhelmingly positive impact on soccer.

I don't believe I've voiced my pure disdain for Browns fans (particularly their creepy attraction to Baker Mayfield no matter how bad he plays) before on this fourm. But that's been a thing for a good year now. Ever since the Browns became relevant again, they've become one of the most delusional groups of people I've ever seen. All of Baker Mayfield's "swagger" and "confidence" has translated to what has been an awful season. His numbers are what you would expect from a backup for a below average team, not a #1 overall pick starter for a team that is pretty solid outside of him. Anytime an actual statistical argument is used, some Browns fan will talk about how bad the team was before Baker. As if Baker is the reason why they've been mediocre over the past few years. Take Baker away from this team from the beginning of the season. With Keenum at quarterback the whole year, I'm guessing they would have the exact same record they do now. Jared Goff would do as much or more than Baker with this squad.

I know I said earlier in the thread (after the Browns/Chargers game maybe) that giving Baker a large contract would be a good decision. I rescind that take. Baker is dragging this team down, and no amount of "swagger", "confidence", or even unfunny commercials can change that.

[Roadgeekteen]

What's wrong with the Cardinals?

[TheHighwayMan3561]

What's wrong with the Cardinals?

Injuries, for one. Deandre Hopkins has been out, and Kyler Murray isn't 100% from his ankle issues (though tonight he looked pretty close).

But in the first two years of the Murray and Kingsbury era, they got off to a good start, then defenses figured them out and shut them down leading the Cardinals to fade out of the picture. Could be that too. At this point the Cardinals need about 500 bad results to go their way to miss the playoffs entirely, so they will almost certainly make the playoffs no matter what.

Something like:
-Lose out
-Vikings, Eagles, Saints win out (with the Vikings playing LAR and GB, and the Saints starting a 3rd string QB Monday night, this will be the day)
-Rams finish ahead of Arizona to win the West title

[thspfc]

I'm moving the Cardinals down to 7th on my list. Not bumping them off entirely however. Huge game next week against the Cowboys.

[epzik8]

Baker Mayfield should be sent to Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, Chicago or the Jets

[JayhawkCO]

I'm moving the Cardinals down to 7th on my list. Not bumping them off entirely however. Huge game next week against the Cowboys.

Colts not on the list yet?

[thspfc]

I'm moving the Cardinals down to 7th on my list. Not bumping them off entirely however. Huge game next week against the Cowboys.

Colts not on the list yet?

Nope

[thspfc]

Reportedly, the Giants will continue to stumble (iykyk) with Daniel Jones and Joe Judge in 2022. So I'm forking their 2022 playoff chances before 2021 is over.

[kevinb1994]

Baker Mayfield should be sent to Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, Chicago or the Jets

He gets plenty of Progressive commercial air time so any of those cities could work.

[thspfc]

Packers 27, Browns 24

Best prediction since week 6 in terms of points.

Rams 28, Vikings 21

So that's already outdated. I guess my several solid picks this week offset my whiffs on the Bucs/Panthers and Colts/Cardinals games.

The Eagles are 8-7. I am not a big fan of theirs, but I am really impressed. They might have their guys in Sirianni and Hurts. Remarkable that they have the same record as teams like the Chargers, Ravens, and 49ers, and they're only one game worse than the Colts, Bills, and Patriots. Even if they go one and done in the playoffs (which they probably will), this has to be considered a massive success of a season for them.

Looks like Joe Burrow might have played a half decent game today?

We get our first true snow game of the year, in Seattle of all places.

[CoreySamson]

Baker Mayfield should be sent to Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, Chicago or the Jets

The Texans have their man already. Davis Mills is impressing me more and more these days. Today, he managed 250 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers while basically the entire offensive line is out with COVID. He seems like the best rookie QB this year after Mac Jones. Somehow, the Texans' future looks... bright? (if anything, it looks brighter than the Jags, Bears, Lions, Giants, and Jets)

Speaking of the Lions, they lost again today in heartbreaking fashion.

[thspfc]

Packers 27, Browns 24

Best prediction since week 6 in terms of points.

Rams 28, Vikings 21

So that's already outdated.

Raiders 16, Broncos 13

So THAT's already outdated.

[Scott5114]

I don't believe I've voiced my pure disdain for Browns fans (particularly their creepy attraction to Baker Mayfield no matter how bad he plays) before on this fourm. But that's been a thing for a good year now. Ever since the Browns became relevant again, they've become one of the most delusional groups of people I've ever seen. All of Baker Mayfield's "swagger" and "confidence" has translated to what has been an awful season. His numbers are what you would expect from a backup for a below average team, not a #1 overall pick starter for a team that is pretty solid outside of him. Anytime an actual statistical argument is used, some Browns fan will talk about how bad the team was before Baker. As if Baker is the reason why they've been mediocre over the past few years. Take Baker away from this team from the beginning of the season. With Keenum at quarterback the whole year, I'm guessing they would have the exact same record they do now. Jared Goff would do as much or more than Baker with this squad.

I know I said earlier in the thread (after the Browns/Chargers game maybe) that giving Baker a large contract would be a good decision. I rescind that take. Baker is dragging this team down, and no amount of "swagger", "confidence", or even unfunny commercials can change that.

There must be something about Baker Mayfield that causes this behavior, because people went apeshit over him in exactly the same way when he was at OU.

I used to troll this security guard at work by telling him these grandiose stories about how Baker Mayfield was about to get arrested, for unspecified reasons, usually by Robert Mueller coming out and cuffing him on the 50-yard line in the middle of the next game. This was all extremely silly and obviously made up, but the guy would get really mad to the point that he got red in the face and started yelling about how Baker Mayfield wasn't going to get arrested, and how I shouldn't say things like that, and how Baker Mayfield was the best quarterback ever (which shouldn't keep you from getting arrested if you actually did something wrong, but whatever).

[Max Rockatansky]

I don't believe I've voiced my pure disdain for Browns fans (particularly their creepy attraction to Baker Mayfield no matter how bad he plays) before on this fourm. But that's been a thing for a good year now. Ever since the Browns became relevant again, they've become one of the most delusional groups of people I've ever seen. All of Baker Mayfield's "swagger" and "confidence" has translated to what has been an awful season. His numbers are what you would expect from a backup for a below average team, not a #1 overall pick starter for a team that is pretty solid outside of him. Anytime an actual statistical argument is used, some Browns fan will talk about how bad the team was before Baker. As if Baker is the reason why they've been mediocre over the past few years. Take Baker away from this team from the beginning of the season. With Keenum at quarterback the whole year, I'm guessing they would have the exact same record they do now. Jared Goff would do as much or more than Baker with this squad.

I know I said earlier in the thread (after the Browns/Chargers game maybe) that giving Baker a large contract would be a good decision. I rescind that take. Baker is dragging this team down, and no amount of "swagger", "confidence", or even unfunny commercials can change that.

There must be something about Baker Mayfield that causes this behavior, because people went apeshit over him in exactly the same way when he was at OU.

I used to troll this security guard at work by telling him these grandiose stories about how Baker Mayfield was about to get arrested, for unspecified reasons, usually by Robert Mueller coming out and cuffing him on the 50-yard line in the middle of the next game. This was all extremely silly and obviously made up, but the guy would get really mad to the point that he got red in the face and started yelling about how Baker Mayfield wasn't going to get arrested, and how I shouldn't say things like that, and how Baker Mayfield was the best quarterback ever (which shouldn't keep you from getting arrested if you actually did something wrong, but whatever).

That sounds more like a typical Cleveland fan base thing rather than a Baker Mayfield.  Cleveland had a lot of "I support Cleveland no matter what"  homer types that make up a lot of the fan base.  It kind of always was amusing to me given most of the Detroit fan base is of the "fire everyone"  mentality. 

[NWI_Irish96]

This would be my list:

Green Bay
Tampa Bay
Dallas

Kansas City
Buffalo
Indianapolis
Tennessee (if D Henry comes back healthy)

I'm going to stick with this list. Tennessee is iffy, but the other six teams all have real chances to win it all.

[webny99]

Reportedly, the Giants will continue to stumble (iykyk) with Daniel Jones and Joe Judge in 2022. So I'm forking their 2022 playoff chances before 2021 is over.

Alright, I'll bite. The Giants WILL make the playoffs in 2022.

Not that I really have that much confidence, but there's something sort of Cinderella-like about the Giants franchise that it wouldn't shock me at all if they have one or two playoff runs out of nowhere, maybe even Super Bowl runs, sometime in the next few years. That's the tradeoff for some really bad football in their down years, injuries obviously being a huge factor recently.

[webny99]

I don't believe I've voiced my pure disdain for Browns fans (particularly their creepy attraction to Baker Mayfield no matter how bad he plays) before on this fourm. But that's been a thing for a good year now. Ever since the Browns became relevant again, they've become one of the most delusional groups of people I've ever seen. All of Baker Mayfield's "swagger" and "confidence" has translated to what has been an awful season. His numbers are what you would expect from a backup for a below average team, not a #1 overall pick starter for a team that is pretty solid outside of him. Anytime an actual statistical argument is used, some Browns fan will talk about how bad the team was before Baker. As if Baker is the reason why they've been mediocre over the past few years. ...

There must be something about Baker Mayfield that causes this behavior ...

That sounds more like a typical Cleveland fan base thing rather than a Baker Mayfield.  Cleveland had a lot of "I support Cleveland no matter what"  homer types that make up a lot of the fan base.  It kind of always was amusing to me given most of the Detroit fan base is of the "fire everyone"  mentality.

A couple of things on this...

-I think it's more of a Rust Belt thing than something specific to Cleveland. Buffalo and Pittsburgh are pretty much the same way with people being loyal to their city/team even when they're bad... but it just gets magnified with Cleveland because they were so bad for so long before the past few seasons.
-I think Baker is part of the reason why the Browns are mediocre. He's the reason they're not better... and the reason they're not worse. He's pretty much an average QB, and I think that's partly why some Browns fans are so loyal to him, because an average QB is a lot more than they've had for decades.
-For what a disappointing season it's been, the Browns showed no quit the last couple of weeks. I think you could argue that the offensive play calling on the final series cost them both games. And they can absolutely still win the division if they win next week.