NFL (2024 Season)

[NWI_Irish96]

Apparently the Colts are benching Matt Ryan, which seems like a glaring mistake.

Their offensive line is bad right now and Ehlinger is at least more mobile, so it makes sense.

[NWI_Irish96]

Who was that wearing the Bears uniforms tonight?

[webny99]

Who was that wearing the Bears uniforms tonight?

Whoever it was, their season high in points is higher than the Giants, and they get a big thanks from me for providing one of my favorite results of the season!

[Henry]

Who was that wearing the Bears uniforms tonight?

Whoever it was, their season high in points is higher than the Giants, and they get a big thanks from me for providing one of my favorite results of the season!

For once, it was actually fun watching the Bears. I haven't said it that much since the last time they made the Super Bowl and lost to Peyton Manning.

[NWI_Irish96]

I'm not going to be quite as aggressive, I'll fork these teams:

Jets
Browns
Texans
Lions
Falcons
Seahawks

Adding:

Patriots
Steelers
Raiders
Commanders
Panthers

Looks like I'm gonna take a hit on the Jets.

I'm going to add

Broncos
Jaguars
Saints

[NWI_Irish96]

10-4 again on the week despite all the wild upsets.

Bucs
Broncos
Panthers
Cowboys
Dolphins
Vikings
Saints
Jets
Eagles
Titans
Colts
Rams
Giants
Bills
Bengals

[thspfc]

Bucs 23, Ravens 20
Broncos/Jags: heck if I know
Dolphins 30, Lions 23
Panthers 21, Falcons 20
Vikings 34, Cardinals 24
Cowboys 28, Bears 20
Raiders 27, Saints 19
Eagles 33, Steelers 17
Jets 23, Patriots 16
Texans 24, Titans 23
Seahawks 29, Giants 17
Colts 16, Commanders 13
Rams 26, 49ers 20
Bills 31, Packers 24
Bengals 24, Browns 21

I called the 1-8 Texans beating the 8-2 Titans last year so might as well try again. Plus the Titans are annoying.

I fully expect to not improve upon my horrendous 5-13-1 record picking games that involve an AFC South team. And four of the five correct ones (three Texans losses and Bills over Titans) were pretty much gimmes.

[jlam]

7-7 last week. Might as well have flipped a coin.

Ravens 41, Buccaneers 37
Broncos 13, Jaguars 17
Panthers 23, Falcons 19
Bears 23, Cowboys 30
Dolphins 20, Lions 21
Cardinals 23, Vikings 26
Raiders 27, Saints 21
Patriots 28, Jets 24
Steelers 28, Eagles 33
Titans 21, Texans 19
Commanders 16, Colts 20
49ers 30, Rams 28
Giants 23, Seahawks 21
Packers 13, Bills 27
Bengals 29, Browns 16

[JayhawkCO]

10-4 last week. Not too bad.

Bucs over Ravens
Jags over Broncos
Dolphins over Lions
Vikings over Cardinals
Panthers over Falcons
Bears over Cowboys
Raiders over Saints
Jets over Patriots
Eagles over Steelers
Texans over Titans
Commies over Colts
49ers over Rams
Seahawks over Giants
Bills over Packers
Bengals over Browns

[Henry]

Until last night, no Tom Brady-led team had started the season 3-5. If this keeps up, I think that the Bucs will also be the first team with him as the QB to have a losing record. Even the Patriots missed the playoffs when he was with them, so it's rather a foreign thing to him. But at least they were 8-8.

I suspect that Brady's impending divorce from Gisele Bundchen may have something to do with it...could she have been right to talk him out of a comeback?

[JayhawkCO]

Until last night, no Tom Brady-led team had started the season 3-5. If this keeps up, I think that the Bucs will also be the first team with him as the QB to have a losing record. Even the Patriots missed the playoffs when he was with them, so it's rather a foreign thing to him. But at least they were 8-8.

I suspect that Brady's impending divorce from Gisele Bundchen may have something to do with it...could she have been right to talk him out of a comeback?

I don't know if you've seen pics of him lately, but in his most recent press conference (before the game), he looked like Skeletor - sunken cheeks, kind of frail almost. I think Mr. Brady finally hit the wall. I picked the Bucs in the game last night just because I couldn't see him losing 3 in a row, but now my perception is definitely different.

[elsmere241]

He posted on Instagram a few hours ago that the divorce is final.

[thspfc]

People are looking at Tampa's record and Brady's age and assuming that he's their biggest issue. Not even close. Brady isn't actually playing badly. He leads the league in passing yards (having played 8 games, of course, but his per game average of 283.4 yards would still put him near the top even if he hadn't played an extra game). Only 9 touchdowns, but also only one pick, which is remarkable considering he also leads the league in pass attempts and completions.

Tampa is on pace to be one of the worst rushing teams of all time, which has forced Brady to throw an average of 46.5 passes/game over their last 6 games. At 45 it's a miracle his arm hasn't fallen off. With no run game and Evans being pretty much their only downfield threat at this point, Tampa needs near-perfect drives to score. In their last three games they've reached their opponent's 30-yard line 12 times, and scored 3 touchdowns. Against the Steelers they had four drives of 11+ plays, three of which ended in short field goals. Against the Cowboys they kicked field goals on all five of their first half drives. Their offense is toothless. They need to start running the ball better and throwing it downfield. Bad line play isn't helping.

The good news? Their division stinks. 8-9 could win it, 9-8 most definitely will.

[webny99]

Mostly kidding about that, but in all seriousness, I am going to complete my NFC forks by forking the Bucs and Packers. That means my NFC playoff field is officially SET and it will be (in rough order of what I think the seeds will be) Eagles, Vikings, 49ers, Saints (oof), Cowboys, Rams, and Cardinals (yeah, I shouldn't have forked the Giants, but too late now).

AFC incoming...

I decided I'm going to fork both of this week's London teams regardless of result, so there's no point in waiting to complete my AFC forks. I'm forking the Broncos, Jaguars, and Raiders. That means my forks are complete and AFC playoff field is officially SET and it will be (in rough order of what I think the seeds will be) Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Colts (oof), Bengals, Dolphins, and Chargers.

In summary...

12 teams x 20 pts = 240
1 team x 15 pts = 15
5 teams x 13 pts = 65
TOTAL pts if all 18 are correct (spoiler alert: they won't be) = 320

I'm expecting to be wrong about 4 of my preseason forks, which would cost me 120 pts for a net of 200.

[thspfc]

Well, Denver wins. They scored touchdowns instead of field goals, that was the difference between today and the rest of their games. Still unlikely that they make the playoffs. But I'm already this far in, why would I back out after a W? So I'm not forking them yet.

[thspfc]

Fork the Raiders. More to come.

Another W for my Cowboys, this one much different from the first five. Defense was pushed around all day, but it was refreshing to see 49 points. Dak is back. Pollard is really good.

Chicago was trailing from the go, usually by double digits, and still ran the ball 43 times. On one hand, I respect it because it was working. On the other, they simply ate too much clock, especially in the second half, to give themselves a chance. Fields did play maybe the best game of his career.

Campbell needs to be fired.

Falcons win against their will in a game that summarizes the 2022 NFC South.

My prediction for the Cardinals/Vikings game was only two points off. Probably one of the only intelligent predictions I've made.

[kurumi]

The four division pairs in both conference kind of resemble each other. To be a little clearer, I'll just write it out:

AFC East is combined 9 games above .500 (+9); NFC East is +15. No teams are below .500 here.

AFC and NFC North are -4 and -4.

AFC and NFC South are -6 and -8.

AFC and NFC West are -1 and -1.

[NWI_Irish96]

Fork the Raiders. More to come.

Another W for my Cowboys, this one much different from the first five. Defense was pushed around all day, but it was refreshing to see 49 points. Dak is back. Pollard is really good.

Chicago was trailing from the go, usually by double digits, and still ran the ball 43 times. On one hand, I respect it because it was working. On the other, they simply ate too much clock, especially in the second half, to give themselves a chance. Fields did play maybe the best game of his career.

Campbell needs to be fired.

Falcons win against their will in a game that summarizes the 2022 NFC South.

My prediction for the Cardinals/Vikings game was only two points off. Probably one of the only intelligent predictions I've made.

Fields has no receivers and no pass blocking. Running the ball 43 times a game keeps him upright until the offseason when they can get him some help. At this point that's more important than winning.

[webny99]

The four division pairs in both conference kind of resemble each other. To be a little clearer, I'll just write it out:

AFC East is combined 9 games above .500 (+9); NFC East is +15. No teams are below .500 here.

AFC and NFC North are -4 and -4.

AFC and NFC South are -6 and -8.

AFC and NFC West are -1 and -1.

Yep. It is very notable that all 8 teams in the East divisions are .500 or better. When's the last time that happened through 8 games? Sometime the 1990's? Maybe never?

Meanwhile, the South divisions are a mess, all below .500 except the Titans who might cruise to a division title (unfortunately for my forks list).

[webny99]

Packers and Bucs, but not Saints? Bold strategy, Cotton.

...
Probably should have forked the Saints and kept the Falcons, but I'm out on the Bucs either way so I have to take what's left. 

I'm forking the Broncos, Jaguars, and Raiders. That means my forks are complete and AFC playoff field is officially SET

I guess Raiders-Saints was my Super Bowl 

[ET21]

Fork the Raiders. More to come.

Another W for my Cowboys, this one much different from the first five. Defense was pushed around all day, but it was refreshing to see 49 points. Dak is back. Pollard is really good.

Chicago was trailing from the go, usually by double digits, and still ran the ball 43 times. On one hand, I respect it because it was working. On the other, they simply ate too much clock, especially in the second half, to give themselves a chance. Fields did play maybe the best game of his career.

Campbell needs to be fired.

Falcons win against their will in a game that summarizes the 2022 NFC South.

My prediction for the Cardinals/Vikings game was only two points off. Probably one of the only intelligent predictions I've made.

Fields has no receivers and no pass blocking. Running the ball 43 times a game keeps him upright until the offseason when they can get him some help. At this point that's more important than winning.

This, people are conveniently forgetting that this was going to be a lost year for the Bears from the start. While I don't like seeing Fields getting beaten to death because the o-line sucks, it is very impressive to see his play over the last two weeks. Yesterday was a nice building block game for him.

[thspfc]

Adding the Saints and Cardinals to my list. Browns likely to follow, but might as well wait for tonight's game.

Well, Denver wins. They scored touchdowns instead of field goals, that was the difference between today and the rest of their games. Still unlikely that they make the playoffs. But I'm already this far in, why would I back out after a W? So I'm not forking them yet.

I've been going back and forth on this. I think both the Broncos and Commies have a shot, but strategically I have to fork one of them.

With how the Chargers have looked lately I wouldn't be totally shocked if Denver came 2nd in the West. The South won't have a wild card. The North won't have more than one. The East is the best AFC division as was mentioned, but everyone besides the Bills has looked shaky at times. So if things fall a certain way, Denver could quite possibly be the 7 seed. (Provided they pick it up on offense, of course.)

If the Commies catch the Giants for 3rd in the NFCE, they're likely in. I think the NFC wild cards will be two East teams and one West team, though I'm not totally counting out Green Bay. Plus, my pre-season predictions had the Cowboys, Eagles, and Commies all making the playoffs, so that would be pretty insane if it works out.

I think I have to go with the Commies as the more likely team to make it, meaning the Broncos get the fork after all. (sigh)

[jlam]

Fork the Colts, Patriots, and Chargers.

Falcons
Texans
Jets
Giants
Bears
Lions
Raiders
Steelers
Seahawks
Panthers
Commanders
Saints
Cardinals
Broncos
Jaguars

That concludes my forks (unless a team screws me over this week)

[webny99]

The four division pairs in both conference kind of resemble each other. To be a little clearer, I'll just write it out:

AFC East is combined 9 games above .500 (+9); NFC East is +15. No teams are below .500 here.
...

Yep. It is very notable that all 8 teams in the East divisions are .500 or better. When's the last time that happened through 8 games? Sometime the 1990's? Maybe never?

Re: the NFC East:

https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1587053187751677953

[webny99]

Well, Denver wins. They scored touchdowns instead of field goals, that was the difference between today and the rest of their games. Still unlikely that they make the playoffs. But I'm already this far in, why would I back out after a W? So I'm not forking them yet.

I've been going back and forth on this. I think both the Broncos and Commies have a shot, but strategically I have to fork one of them.

With how the Chargers have looked lately I wouldn't be totally shocked if Denver came 2nd in the West. The South won't have a wild card. The North won't have more than one. The East is the best AFC division as was mentioned, but everyone besides the Bills has looked shaky at times. So if things fall a certain way, Denver could quite possibly be the 7 seed. (Provided they pick it up on offense, of course.)

If the Commies catch the Giants for 3rd in the NFCE, they're likely in. I think the NFC wild cards will be two East teams and one West team, though I'm not totally counting out Green Bay. Plus, my pre-season predictions had the Cowboys, Eagles, and Commies all making the playoffs, so that would be pretty insane if it works out.

I think I have to go with the Commies as the more likely team to make it, meaning the Broncos get the fork after all. (sigh)

Yeah, the AFC wild card race is much tougher than the NFC. The Broncos would almost certainly need to get to 10-7 (which would mean going 7-2 the rest of the way) against a very tough schedule. They're probably going to be underdogs in 7 or 8 of their remaining games. FiveThirtyEight agrees with your decision, giving the Commanders 18% playoff odds and the Broncos only 10%.

It would be hilarious if the entire NFC East makes the playoffs, and it's not completely out of question. With how the Rams have looked, if the 49ers win the west, the Seahawks are probably the biggest threat to that happening.