Proposed US 412 Upgrade

[The Ghostbuster]

My number for the US 412 corridor has always been Interstate 46, although any even number between 42 and 62 would work. As for the highways designated along Tulsa's IDL, the only place I could see them being moved to would be back on their original alignments through town (excluding US 412, which has gone along its existing alignment since it was extended westward from Walnut Ridge, AR in 1988).

[kphoger]

That's not a good reason to duplicate a number when there are unique numbers available that fit the grid just as well. There's no reason to use 42 when 46-50 are available.

I agree with this.

However, I should note that the purpose of a route number is to make sure people end up on the right road.  In that sense, duplicated 2di numbers don't matter any more than duplicated 3di numbers matter–or two states having separate routes with the same number, for that matter.

[MikieTimT]

There's 2 sides to the numbering debate in my opinion:

1). The number doesn't matter as long as it's unique in the region that it runs and is near what it should be for a standardized grid numbering scheme.  What's more important is that it's built to the standards that allow for freer and faster flowing traffic with appropriate geometry, lane, and shoulder widths as well as a somewhat higher floor of maintenance standards.  You don't want to burn a number that might logically fit somewhere else.

2). The number matters in that the currently designated endpoints aren't necessarily the ultimate endpoints, although they might be for 3-4 decades, and part of having an Interstate designation is marketing your area for industrial and commercial growth, so the number might have an impact from a marketing perspective.  You don't want to pigeonhole your possibilities to extend the termini with future growth that the facility might induce near the endpoints, nor preclude the possibility that growth to other logical termini past the current endpoints might warrant extending the facility.

I would lean toward the latter view.  The growth patterns according to the census data show that every county to the east of I-49 is on a growth trajectory until you get to the bootheel, whereas west of I-35, it isn't.  I could easily see I-4*/50 growing past NWA to the east as the area along US-412 is prime retirement area and will continue its growth as the boomers wind down their work lives.  There's plenty of justification for extending at minimum to US-65 at Harrison in the next 15 years, but also to I-57 after it's completion not long afterwards with all of the counties in between continuing to grow.  And other than the counties on both sides the Mississippi River, all of the counties between there and Nashville are growing.  The question ultimately is, where else does I-50 belong, if not along US-412?  What are the growth prospects of any alternative across multiple states?  Kansas looks pretty bleak to me, as does southern Illinois and eastern Kentucky.

[hotdogPi]

I'm not sure I trust the 2020-2021 change. The 2021 data seems to ignore the discrepancies between the 2019 estimates and 2020 actual and pretends that growth is still happening in the ways they thought it was in the late 2010s estimates.

[kphoger]

There's 2 sides to the numbering debate in my opinion:

[...]

2). ... part of having an Interstate designation is marketing your area for industrial and commercial growth, so the number might have an impact from a marketing perspective.

What does this mean?

[MikieTimT]

There's 2 sides to the numbering debate in my opinion:

[...]

2). ... part of having an Interstate designation is marketing your area for industrial and commercial growth, so the number might have an impact from a marketing perspective.

What does this mean?

Some numbers look better than others in economic development marketing materials when trying to attract business.

[MikieTimT]

I'm not sure I trust the 2020-2021 change. The 2021 data seems to ignore the discrepancies between the 2019 estimates and 2020 actual and pretends that growth is still happening in the ways they thought it was in the late 2010s estimates.

I'm not sure I trust pre-Covid numbers.  The changes are likely structural at this point, but time will ultimately tell.  Demographically, we're in for a period of upheaval as the Baby Boomer cohort is retiring, and Covid pulled that forward by 2-3 years, but it was inevitable.  Folks on fixed incomes cannot continue living in high tax environments, so they seek cheaper locations, preferably with milder weather.  That means that the growth will continue trending south and west, but the west has water issues, so Arizona's growth is unsustainable unless they desalinate ocean water.  They'll never get Mississippi River water like what opinion news articles periodically bandy about as it's not an engineering issue, but a political one.  That leaves growth trending to the south and southeast over the next decade.  Until it's no longer cheap, that is...

[kphoger]

There's 2 sides to the numbering debate in my opinion:

[...]

2). ... part of having an Interstate designation is marketing your area for industrial and commercial growth, so the number might have an impact from a marketing perspective.

What does this mean?

Some numbers look better than others in economic development marketing materials when trying to attract business.

I mean, 42 is the answer to life, the universe, and everything...

[triplemultiplex]

46 is the only choice.  It's the lowest number between 40 and 70 that isn't taken.

[The Ghostbuster]

As much as I prefer the Interstate 46 designation, as I've stated before, I have a sneaking suspicion that the previously mentioned Interstate 42 designation mentioned in that document earlier might be the one chosen.

[Scott5114]

It's sort of dumb that Oklahoma is asking for a number that's already used, but we already knew Oklahoma was going to do something sort of dumb because it's Oklahoma. Anyway, the numbers 46 and 48 are both sort of aesthetically displeasing to me, so I don't actually care that NC already thinks it has it.

Actually, it's NC's I-42 that sucks because at least ours is supposed to cross state lines.

[Bobby5280]

The growth patterns according to the census data show that every county to the east of I-49 is on a growth trajectory until you get to the bootheel, whereas west of I-35, it isn't.

A county-based map doesn't properly show what's really happening with the nation's demographics and geography. And a 2020-21 sample is a mere blip on a time line.

Most small towns and rural areas in the US are losing population via out-migration and more deaths than births. A county-based map doesn't reflect that very well. Younger adults are leaving in droves, which steadily erodes the tax base in those places. Even elderly people who might prefer small town living get forced into moving to more populous areas for social services and health care access. And then the densely populated areas have their own problems, with the main one being ridiculously high living costs. This catch-22 situation sure isn't going to bode well for highway funding in future decades.

The NW Arkansas cluster of cities is growing. The OKC and Tulsa metros are among the few areas in Oklahoma gaining population. But none of those three metros are getting big on the scale of attracting their own NFL teams. Oklahoma City only has major Interstate routes like I-35 and I-40 running through it because OKC was geographically in the right place for it to happen.

I mean, 42 is the answer to life, the universe, and everything...

Don't panic.

Actually, it's NC's I-42 that sucks because at least ours is supposed to cross state lines.

NC's version is only around 130 miles long. That's almost short enough to justify a 3-digit Interstate route number (especially with the route being intra-state).

[rte66man]

 

There's 2 sides to the numbering debate in my opinion:

[...]

2). ... part of having an Interstate designation is marketing your area for industrial and commercial growth, so the number might have an impact from a marketing perspective.

What does this mean?

Some numbers look better than others in economic development marketing materials when trying to attract business.

I mean, 42 is the answer to life, the universe, and everything...

[edwaleni]

AASHTO has redesigned their website, good luck in finding board or committee meeting minutes now. They seemed to have either disappeared or are behind a login. So much for transparency.

I can't find any meeting notes that approved I-42 for this route, however, the head of ArDOT Highway Planning (Vines) is currently a voting member on the executive committee.

[mvak36]

AASHTO has redesigned their website, good luck in finding board or committee meeting minutes now. They seemed to have either disappeared or are behind a login. So much for transparency.

I can't find any meeting notes that approved I-42 for this route, however, the head of ArDOT Highway Planning (Vines) is currently a voting member on the executive committee.

I did ask them if they're going to start posting that stuff on their new site again. They said they'd look into it. Idk what will happen, but I guess I will keep bugging them after every meeting to get the minutes.

[edwaleni]

AASHTO has redesigned their website, good luck in finding board or committee meeting minutes now. They seemed to have either disappeared or are behind a login. So much for transparency.

I can't find any meeting notes that approved I-42 for this route, however, the head of ArDOT Highway Planning (Vines) is currently a voting member on the executive committee.

I did ask them if they're going to start posting that stuff on their new site again. They said they'd look into it. Idk what will happen, but I guess I will keep bugging them after every meeting to get the minutes.

Please do. The new site is all just PR drivel and ads from highway contractors now. There is stuff in there that has nothing to do with highways.

The meeting minutes was shining light on their decisions for all to see and taking them away is counterproductive to public policy.

[MikieTimT]

Looks like Oct. 19 is ARDOT's PEL Study results open house.  Probably Oklahoma's meeting is on or near that date as well.  Should be some clarity forthcoming on the Siloam Springs Bypass route alternatives along with the alternatives for connecting it to the Springdale Northern Bypass.

https://www.ardot.gov/events/coming-soon-public-meeting-u-s-412-planning-and-environmental-linkages-pel-study/

[intelati49]

Unless I'm reading it incorrectly, there's not going to be much in the way of alternatives for this meeting.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/de853c534703420287fac279def0e852

[edwaleni]

Here is the official Oklahoma project logo, clear as mud?

[swake]

Unless I'm reading it incorrectly, there's not going to be much in the way of alternatives for this meeting.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/de853c534703420287fac279def0e852

Especially on the Oklahoma side where most of the work is already on the 8 year projects plan.

[MikieTimT]

Most of the alternatives that come about from the results of this meeting are actually involving the work required east of Tulsa.  Within Tulsa and to the west of it, there really shouldn't be much involved in getting it ready to swap out the shield.  So, the meeting in Pryor and Siloam Springs will likely have more input solicited on ideas for alternatives as those are the areas most impacted by the changes required to bring the facility up to standard.

[Plutonic Panda]

Would the current route in West Siloam Springs be signed as a business route? Are those still happening?

[mvak36]

It's sort of dumb that Oklahoma is asking for a number that's already used, but we already knew Oklahoma was going to do something sort of dumb because it's Oklahoma. Anyway, the numbers 46 and 48 are both sort of aesthetically displeasing to me, so I don't actually care that NC already thinks it has it.

Actually, it's NC's I-42 that sucks because at least ours is supposed to cross state lines.

I guess I'm a month late to this. I'm not really a fan of re-using I-42, but NC's I-42 is AASHTO's fault so I'm just rooting for chaos at this point.

[Bobby5280]

Most of the alternatives that come about from the results of this meeting are actually involving the work required east of Tulsa.  Within Tulsa and to the west of it, there really shouldn't be much involved in getting it ready to swap out the shield.

The Sand Springs Expressway (US-412) going West out of Tulsa needs some work. Inner shoulders along the main lanes need improvements (not wide enough). Some bridges and ramps need work (obsolete designs). There is an at-grade intersection just past the exit for Keystone Dam.

It looks like the Cimarron Turnpike will be up to current Interstate standards once OTA finishes at least three tasks. They have to remove around 3.5 miles worth of grassy median just West of the Stillwater spur interchange. They have to finish re-building the US-177 exit and toll plaza removal. The OK-99 interchange rebuild and Jennings toll plaza removal is farther along in progress.

All of this adds up to considerably less work than the improvements needed East of Tulsa.

I guess I'm a month late to this. I'm not really a fan of re-using I-42, but NC's I-42 is AASHTO's fault so I'm just rooting for chaos at this point.

The I-42 route in Oklahoma/Arkansas will look interesting if its shields are paired with US-412.

[MikieTimT]

Most of the alternatives that come about from the results of this meeting are actually involving the work required east of Tulsa.  Within Tulsa and to the west of it, there really shouldn't be much involved in getting it ready to swap out the shield.

The Sand Springs Expressway (US-412) going West out of Tulsa needs some work. Inner shoulders along the main lanes need improvements (not wide enough). Some bridges and ramps need work (obsolete designs). There is an at-grade intersection just past the exit for Keystone Dam.

It looks like the Cimarron Turnpike will be up to current Interstate standards once OTA finishes at least three tasks. They have to remove around 3.5 miles worth of grassy median just West of the Stillwater spur interchange. They have to finish re-building the US-177 exit and toll plaza removal. The OK-99 interchange rebuild and Jennings toll plaza removal is farther along in progress.

All of this adds up to considerably less work than the improvements needed East of Tulsa.

I guess I'm a month late to this. I'm not really a fan of re-using I-42, but NC's I-42 is AASHTO's fault so I'm just rooting for chaos at this point.

The I-42 route in Oklahoma/Arkansas will look interesting if its shields are paired with US-412.

Well,  I did my pitch with my Representative and Senators for I-50, but I don't hold out hope at this point.  Did get one call back from an office intern thanking me for my input, so we'll see in a few short weeks if I need to just go ahead and change my avatar.