Fastest-growing suburbs

[abefroman329]

I went to Phoenix and had my hand on my head the whole time--not to keep the intense sun out of my eyes, but because looking at this misplaced expanse of suburbia caused a permanent facepalm.

It's Atlanta if Atlanta had a hideously ugly landscape.  And the opaque walls surrounding EVERY PIECE OF PROPERTY explains so, so much.

Atlanta has a lot of problems as well from a city design standpoint.  Too car oriented.  Phoenix is unsustainable though.

Atlanta has to pipe in water as well, though probably not to the degree Phoenix does.

[Pink Jazz]

isn't the largest American suburb Mesa?  If not what is, in terms of area and population?

As of the 2010 Census it was Long Beach, CA, but it looks like Mesa has surpassed it in population per the 2017 estimate.

[bing101]

Makes me glad I live in a state where we have a ton of water. Sooner or later the Southwest is going to have to get their water shipped from somewhere else, probably either fresh water from the Great Lakes states or desalinated water from the Pacific Ocean. Either way it's going to be very expensive.

Not a fucking chance it's coming from the Great Lakes if we have anything to do about it here.  They can desalinate their way out of it or move back to where there's water.

I feel like the growth of the Southwest was driven by people from the Midwest and East Coast who were tired of being cold and just thought that living in the Southwest would be a cure for their problems. I mean, Florida's development was driven by people wanting to flee the cold and move to somewhere that's warm year-round. The advent of the air conditioner accelerated this growth and Florida boomed.

I can see where the Southwest might be preferable to Florida because it doesn't have humidity. But of course, those people arrived and wanted the amenities of home, which requires water because those places naturally have a lot of it.

It's basically the epitome of the "ME! ME! ME!" world. The Southwest is breathtakingly gorgeous but people who move there seem to want New York in the Desert so you get what we have now. The Southwest cannot support large urbanization and I have no idea why more people aren't sounding the alarm bells about it.

Also this the San Joaquin Valley is one of the most ecologically damaged area in California one is the recent wild smoke in the Area and also the ground water issue has been depleted during the drought period. It has lead to debates over how much water will be piped in from the Sacramento Delta (covers Sacramento and Solano Counties). San Joaquin Valley has to cover fast population growth from San Francisco and Los Angeles due to housing affordability issues.

[Bruce]

Part of the problem is that even more desirable cities, mainly on the Coasts, refuse to build or allow enough housing to accommodate current and future growth, on top of real estate speculators and unauthorized uses like AirBnBs. So everyone goes for what they can afford: cheap sprawlburb housing in the Southwest or flyover country.

[csw]

it always surprised me how a city of 4 million people could possibly exist in the middle of the desert.  Albuquerque has less than half the population, but similar weather.  Why is it that Albuquerque and New Mexico as a whole didn't experience the same influx of people?

Albuquerque is nowhere near as desert-like. It's in the mountains.

To me the difference is that it snows in Albuquerque and it doesn't in Phoenix.

[jakeroot]

Part of the problem is that even more desirable cities, mainly on the Coasts, refuse to build or allow enough housing to accommodate current and future growth, on top of real estate speculators and unauthorized uses like AirBnBs. So everyone goes for what they can afford: cheap sprawlburb housing in the Southwest or flyover country.

One area where dense coastal cities have it hard, is in review processes, especially as they relate to zoning. The government, even in our post-urban freeway world, can still quite easily expropriate private land for public use. But to knock down housing for newer, but still private uses, is a bit (read: a lot) more difficult. I don't quite know how zoning laws are reviewed and modified in places like Seattle or Portland, but if it involves any public comment, it's going to take a long time. All of the comments are going to read the same thing: "don't take my house" or "don't take my land", followed by "keep the character of the neighborhood intact". Frankly, the reviews should be left to a private committee made up of people educated on land use.

I personally appreciate Japanese zoning laws, which allow developers to do almost anything they want with land, assuming the land is zoned for maximum variability (upper tiers), and the design is in-keeping with the tier (which may not permit things like industrial use). American zoning laws are comparatively quite strict and specific. The Japanese may have zones that permit anything from schools, to homes, to commercial property, but American zones often limit land use to only one type of property. Some zones may allow only homes, or only schools, or only shops, etc. There are mixed-use zones, of course, but there's not nearly enough.

I don't know how zoning works in the south, but I think virtually everything outside designated growth areas is "single family housing", where developers need only to acquire the land and complete environmental review processes, to proceed with construction.

[mgk920]

Also strict limits on unit density that require developers to eat up far more land than is necessary - or more than the market is really demanding - to house a certain number of people.

Mike

[Duke87]

I don't know how zoning works in the south, but I think virtually everything outside designated growth areas is "single family housing", where developers need only to acquire the land and complete environmental review processes, to proceed with construction.

Zoning regulations are very weak or nonexistent in many interior areas of the country. Part of the reason you see metros like Phoenix, Houston, DFW, etc. growing quickly is because there are no physical or regulatory barriers preventing it. These metros are expanding unrestrained to keep up with demand, which keeps prices low, and this creates a feedback loop that keeps the demand high because it's quite a bargain for a large city.

I'm also not sure what environmental review processes you are speaking of - even up here in the northeast, where zoning regulations are a ubiquitous thing, there isn't an environmental review process associated with building new single family homes. You need to comply with building codes and whatnot but so long as you do this you're good - you don't need to write any lengthy reports explaining all the environmental impacts of the development, and the Sierra Club can't sue you to try and stop it because box turtles live on the property.

When it gets messy is when you want to do something which the established zoning of the property does not allow, and need to apply to the zoning board for a variance. Then you have a public comment process where every NIMBY under the sun has their shot at shutting you down.

[silverback1065]

every time a new development is announced where I live the usual excuses pop up:

1. it will increase traffic!
2. it's too dense!
3. it doesn't match the character of the neighborhood!

These things are almost never true, and it really pisses me off when I hear people say it.  They proposed 4 townhomes and these excuses were brought up, including "parking congestion" WTF?! 

[jon daly]

I don't know how zoning works in the south, but I think virtually everything outside designated growth areas is "single family housing", where developers need only to acquire the land and complete environmental review processes, to proceed with construction.

Zoning regulations are very weak or nonexistent in many interior areas of the country. Part of the reason you see metros like Phoenix, Houston, DFW, etc. growing quickly is because there are no physical or regulatory barriers preventing it. These metros are expanding unrestrained to keep up with demand, which keeps prices low, and this creates a feedback loop that keeps the demand high because it's quite a bargain for a large city.

I'm also not sure what environmental review processes you are speaking of - even up here in the northeast, where zoning regulations are a ubiquitous thing, there isn't an environmental review process associated with building new single family homes. You need to comply with building codes and whatnot but so long as you do this you're good - you don't need to write any lengthy reports explaining all the environmental impacts of the development, and the Sierra Club can't sue you to try and stop it because box turtles live on the property.

When it gets messy is when you want to do something which the established zoning of the property does not allow, and need to apply to the zoning board for a variance. Then you have a public comment process where every NIMBY under the sun has their shot at shutting you down.

I was just talking to a coworker an hour ago. We have a satellite office in Phoenix. He visits their and he LIKES it. I think he prefers places further out, though; like Sedona (I haven't looked it up to see how urban that place is.) He was showing me some desert pics from his phone.

Give me northern New England if I want to get away from things.

[abefroman329]

I like Phoenix just fine. In February. To visit, not to live there.

[abefroman329]

isn't the largest American suburb Mesa?  If not what is, in terms of area and population?

As of the 2010 Census it was Long Beach, CA, but it looks like Mesa has surpassed it in population per the 2017 estimate.

I think it's a stretch to call Long Beach a suburb, given that it has its own industries and doesn't serve primarily as a bedroom community for LA.

[silverback1065]

I don't know how zoning works in the south, but I think virtually everything outside designated growth areas is "single family housing", where developers need only to acquire the land and complete environmental review processes, to proceed with construction.

Zoning regulations are very weak or nonexistent in many interior areas of the country. Part of the reason you see metros like Phoenix, Houston, DFW, etc. growing quickly is because there are no physical or regulatory barriers preventing it. These metros are expanding unrestrained to keep up with demand, which keeps prices low, and this creates a feedback loop that keeps the demand high because it's quite a bargain for a large city.

I'm also not sure what environmental review processes you are speaking of - even up here in the northeast, where zoning regulations are a ubiquitous thing, there isn't an environmental review process associated with building new single family homes. You need to comply with building codes and whatnot but so long as you do this you're good - you don't need to write any lengthy reports explaining all the environmental impacts of the development, and the Sierra Club can't sue you to try and stop it because box turtles live on the property.

When it gets messy is when you want to do something which the established zoning of the property does not allow, and need to apply to the zoning board for a variance. Then you have a public comment process where every NIMBY under the sun has their shot at shutting you down.

I was just talking to a coworker an hour ago. We have a satellite office in Phoenix. He visits their and he LIKES it. I think he prefers places further out, though; like Sedona (I haven't looked it up to see how urban that place is.) He was showing me some desert pics from his phone.

Give me northern New England if I want to get away from things.

northern ariz is amazing, phoenix is boring.  never been to tucson, sedona and flagstaff are great beautiful landscape!

[Pink Jazz]

isn't the largest American suburb Mesa?  If not what is, in terms of area and population?

As of the 2010 Census it was Long Beach, CA, but it looks like Mesa has surpassed it in population per the 2017 estimate.

I think it's a stretch to call Long Beach a suburb, given that it has its own industries and doesn't serve primarily as a bedroom community for LA.

Tempe, AZ has its own industries as well but most people still call it a suburb of Phoenix.  And Mesa at times tried to break away from Maricopa County along with Chandler, Gilbert, and Queen Creek, with Mesa being the county seat, which gives a hint that Mesa (and the other mentioned East Valley cities) can maintain its own economy separately from the rest of the Phoenix metro area.

[Rothman]

isn't the largest American suburb Mesa?  If not what is, in terms of area and population?

As of the 2010 Census it was Long Beach, CA, but it looks like Mesa has surpassed it in population per the 2017 estimate.

I think it's a stretch to call Long Beach a suburb, given that it has its own industries and doesn't serve primarily as a bedroom community for LA.

Tempe, AZ has its own industries as well but most people still call it a suburb of Phoenix.  And Mesa at times tried to break away from Maricopa County along with Chandler, Gilbert, and Queen Creek, with Mesa being the county seat, which gives a hint that Mesa (and the other mentioned East Valley cities) can maintain its own economy separately from the rest of the Phoenix metro area.

Pfft.  Hempstead, NY (775,000) dwarfs any of the places you are discussing (<500,000).  It is left off of typical lists because it is a town and not a city.

[jeffandnicole]

isn't the largest American suburb Mesa?  If not what is, in terms of area and population?

As of the 2010 Census it was Long Beach, CA, but it looks like Mesa has surpassed it in population per the 2017 estimate.

I think it’s a stretch to call Long Beach a suburb, given that it has its own industries and doesn’t serve primarily as a bedroom community for LA.

Tempe, AZ has its own industries as well but most people still call it a suburb of Phoenix.  And Mesa at times tried to break away from Maricopa County along with Chandler, Gilbert, and Queen Creek, with Mesa being the county seat, which gives a hint that Mesa (and the other mentioned East Valley cities) can maintain its own economy separately from the rest of the Phoenix metro area.

Pfft.  Hempstead, NY (775,000) dwarfs any of the places you are discussing (<500,000).  It is left off of typical lists because it is a town and not a city.

Most lists are created by people that don't know individual state rules.  In some states, once you hit a certain population, you automatically become a city.

[Brandon]

isn't the largest American suburb Mesa?  If not what is, in terms of area and population?

As of the 2010 Census it was Long Beach, CA, but it looks like Mesa has surpassed it in population per the 2017 estimate.

I think it’s a stretch to call Long Beach a suburb, given that it has its own industries and doesn’t serve primarily as a bedroom community for LA.

Tempe, AZ has its own industries as well but most people still call it a suburb of Phoenix.  And Mesa at times tried to break away from Maricopa County along with Chandler, Gilbert, and Queen Creek, with Mesa being the county seat, which gives a hint that Mesa (and the other mentioned East Valley cities) can maintain its own economy separately from the rest of the Phoenix metro area.

Pfft.  Hempstead, NY (775,000) dwarfs any of the places you are discussing (<500,000).  It is left off of typical lists because it is a town and not a city.

Most lists are created by people that don't know individual state rules.  In some states, once you hit a certain population, you automatically become a city.

And in others, it's done by government type, thus some states have villages of over 70,000 in population.  I would suspect that if in Illinois, Hempsted would be unincorporated.  If in Michigan, it would be a charter township.

[Mark68]

Aurora, CO (2018 estimate: 368,518) does trail Denver (719,116) and Colorado Springs (484,233) in population, but has had steady growth for the last 7 decades. Its population in the 1940 census was 3437. However, the growth in the 21st century has only been in the teens (of course, the population in 2000 was 276,393).

However, some of the fastest-growing suburban areas near Denver are in Douglas County (which happens to sit between Denver and the Springs). DougCo has quintupled in population since 1990 (from 60,391 to 335,299 in 2017), with most of that growth occurring in unincorporated Highlands Ranch (10,181 to 96,713), Castle Rock (the county seat--from 8708 to 62,276), the Town of Parker (yep, still officially a "Town"--from 5450 to 54,202), and Lone Tree (incorporated 1996--from 4873 in 2000 to 13,271 in 2016). Some of that growth has also occurred in the small portion of Aurora that extends into DougCo.

[Pink Jazz]

isn't the largest American suburb Mesa?  If not what is, in terms of area and population?

As of the 2010 Census it was Long Beach, CA, but it looks like Mesa has surpassed it in population per the 2017 estimate.

I think it’s a stretch to call Long Beach a suburb, given that it has its own industries and doesn’t serve primarily as a bedroom community for LA.

Tempe, AZ has its own industries as well but most people still call it a suburb of Phoenix.  And Mesa at times tried to break away from Maricopa County along with Chandler, Gilbert, and Queen Creek, with Mesa being the county seat, which gives a hint that Mesa (and the other mentioned East Valley cities) can maintain its own economy separately from the rest of the Phoenix metro area.

Pfft.  Hempstead, NY (775,000) dwarfs any of the places you are discussing (<500,000).  It is left off of typical lists because it is a town and not a city.

Most lists are created by people that don't know individual state rules.  In some states, once you hit a certain population, you automatically become a city.

The U.S. Census Bureau does not consider Hempstead to be an "incorporated place"; it is considered a "minor civil division".  A town in New York is not the same as a town elsewhere.

[mgk920]

Aurora, CO (2018 estimate: 368,518) does trail Denver (719,116) and Colorado Springs (484,233) in population, but has had steady growth for the last 7 decades. Its population in the 1940 census was 3437. However, the growth in the 21st century has only been in the teens (of course, the population in 2000 was 276,393).

However, some of the fastest-growing suburban areas near Denver are in Douglas County (which happens to sit between Denver and the Springs). DougCo has quintupled in population since 1990 (from 60,391 to 335,299 in 2017), with most of that growth occurring in unincorporated Highlands Ranch (10,181 to 96,713), Castle Rock (the county seat--from 8708 to 62,276), the Town of Parker (yep, still officially a "Town"--from 5450 to 54,202), and Lone Tree (incorporated 1996--from 4873 in 2000 to 13,271 in 2016). Some of that growth has also occurred in the small portion of Aurora that extends into DougCo.

How different would that be had the 'Poundstone' thing not happened?

Mike

[Mark68]

Aurora, CO (2018 estimate: 368,518) does trail Denver (719,116) and Colorado Springs (484,233) in population, but has had steady growth for the last 7 decades. Its population in the 1940 census was 3437. However, the growth in the 21st century has only been in the teens (of course, the population in 2000 was 276,393).

However, some of the fastest-growing suburban areas near Denver are in Douglas County (which happens to sit between Denver and the Springs). DougCo has quintupled in population since 1990 (from 60,391 to 335,299 in 2017), with most of that growth occurring in unincorporated Highlands Ranch (10,181 to 96,713), Castle Rock (the county seat--from 8708 to 62,276), the Town of Parker (yep, still officially a "Town"--from 5450 to 54,202), and Lone Tree (incorporated 1996--from 4873 in 2000 to 13,271 in 2016). Some of that growth has also occurred in the small portion of Aurora that extends into DougCo.

How different would that be had the 'Poundstone' thing not happened?

Mike

In DougCo, probably would have no effect. In Aurora, which borders on Denver, maybe not much (as most of the older areas of Aurora are on or near the border with Denver). If anything, Denver would have (probably) incorporated the City of Glendale as well as nearby unincorporated neighborhoods of Arapahoe & Adams counties.

If it had been allowed to expand, Denver probably would be over 800k in population, but I doubt that would have any effect on suburban growth. The areas that are that close to Denver contain some well-established neighborhoods (and some industrial areas). Glendale probably would look much like it actually does today (apartments, high-rise commercial buildings, shopping centers and restaurants).

However, Denver would look much less like a patchwork quilt.

[silverback1065]

I think it's good that denver didn't expand into a massive sprawly mess, it's one of my favorite cities i've been to, love the design!

[kphoger]

DougCo^TM

FTFY.

[mgk920]

Aurora, CO (2018 estimate: 368,518) does trail Denver (719,116) and Colorado Springs (484,233) in population, but has had steady growth for the last 7 decades. Its population in the 1940 census was 3437. However, the growth in the 21st century has only been in the teens (of course, the population in 2000 was 276,393).

However, some of the fastest-growing suburban areas near Denver are in Douglas County (which happens to sit between Denver and the Springs). DougCo has quintupled in population since 1990 (from 60,391 to 335,299 in 2017), with most of that growth occurring in unincorporated Highlands Ranch (10,181 to 96,713), Castle Rock (the county seat--from 8708 to 62,276), the Town of Parker (yep, still officially a "Town"--from 5450 to 54,202), and Lone Tree (incorporated 1996--from 4873 in 2000 to 13,271 in 2016). Some of that growth has also occurred in the small portion of Aurora that extends into DougCo.

How different would that be had the 'Poundstone' thing not happened?

Mike

In DougCo, probably would have no effect. In Aurora, which borders on Denver, maybe not much (as most of the older areas of Aurora are on or near the border with Denver). If anything, Denver would have (probably) incorporated the City of Glendale as well as nearby unincorporated neighborhoods of Arapahoe & Adams counties.

If it had been allowed to expand, Denver probably would be over 800k in population, but I doubt that would have any effect on suburban growth. The areas that are that close to Denver contain some well-established neighborhoods (and some industrial areas). Glendale probably would look much like it actually does today (apartments, high-rise commercial buildings, shopping centers and restaurants).

However, Denver would look much less like a patchwork quilt.

There are some parts of the southern border where a simple straightening of the line would do a lot of good for both the city and the suburbs, making it easier and less expensive for both sides to serve, too.

Mike

[bing101]

I will say the next fastest growing suburbs would have to be ones that are double duty such as serving more that one Census designated areas as in a Temecula and Murrieta type cities where they have to serve both Los Angeles and San Diego commuters at the same time.