Tropical cyclone tracking thread

[NWI_Irish96]

Our agency's call centers have a standing contract with FEMA to provide for staff to take calls during emergencies. They're getting trained today.

[1995hoo]

https://twitter.com/itsbethbooker/status/1575189530943946752

She followed up to say it's up to their second-story lanai.

[interstatefan990]

Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.

3 out of 123 since 1851 have been Category 5 - the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The average of all 123 is Category 2.08.

Only four Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes have ever hit the U.S.. Add Camille in 1969 and that's the entirety.

There have been some Category 5 cyclones that have hit some of our territories in the Pacific.

Wow. It'll be interesting to see if we'll add Hurricane Ian to that list if it makes the 2mph leap to Category 5 as it makes landfall now.

[NWI_Irish96]

Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.

3 out of 123 since 1851 have been Category 5 - the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The average of all 123 is Category 2.08.

Only four Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes have ever hit the U.S.. Add Camille in 1969 and that's the entirety.

There have been some Category 5 cyclones that have hit some of our territories in the Pacific.

Wow. It'll be interesting to see if we'll add Hurricane Ian to that list if it makes the 2mph leap to Category 5 as it makes landfall now.

Officially 150 mph at landfall.

[interstatefan990]

Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.

3 out of 123 since 1851 have been Category 5 - the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The average of all 123 is Category 2.08.

Only four Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes have ever hit the U.S.. Add Camille in 1969 and that's the entirety.

There have been some Category 5 cyclones that have hit some of our territories in the Pacific.

Wow. It'll be interesting to see if we'll add Hurricane Ian to that list if it makes the 2mph leap to Category 5 as it makes landfall now.

Officially 150 mph at landfall.

Is it expected to continue downwards?

[NWI_Irish96]

Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.

3 out of 123 since 1851 have been Category 5 - the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The average of all 123 is Category 2.08.

Only four Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes have ever hit the U.S.. Add Camille in 1969 and that's the entirety.

There have been some Category 5 cyclones that have hit some of our territories in the Pacific.

Wow. It'll be interesting to see if we'll add Hurricane Ian to that list if it makes the 2mph leap to Category 5 as it makes landfall now.

Officially 150 mph at landfall.

Is it expected to continue downwards?

Once over land, hurricanes tend to lose energy pretty fast.

[1995hoo]

The key question will be how quickly it moves across Florida and reaches the Atlantic. It'll certainly lose strength and it won't be close to Category 5 when it reaches the Atlantic. But if it moves quickly, it could be strong enough that when it moves north and makes landfall again around Savannah or Charleston that it could still be quite a strong storm. Won't likely be anything like Hugo, for example, because it's unlikely to have time to regain that strength over the Atlantic, but if it moves across Florida quickly it could weaken less than it might if it were to stall.

[Scott5114]

I just want to point out that Puerto Rico has almost the population of Connecticut, and it got hit hard by the hurricane. What made it worse is that they hadn't recovered fully from Maria in 2017; the company that tried to restore the grid did a poor job. This is being entirely ignored by most Americans.

What are the odds that company is in bed with the Puerto Rican government?

I empathize with anyone who has to deal with a corrupt government who does not have its population's basic needs and interests in mind.

I think the consensus was that the company was in bed with the United States government–I seem to recall it being a tiny startup outfit that happened to be from the same small town in Montana that the Secretary of the Interior at the time was from.

Edit: I did some research on this, and the company was Whitefish Energy, whose contract was cancelled before they actually did any work on the Puerto Rico power grid. Suffice it to say whoever actually did the work didn't do much better, though.

[jgb191]

The key question will be how quickly it moves across Florida and reaches the Atlantic. It'll certainly lose strength and it won't be close to Category 5 when it reaches the Atlantic. But if it moves quickly, it could be strong enough that when it moves north and makes landfall again around Savannah or Charleston that it could still be quite a strong storm. Won't likely be anything like Hugo, for example, because it's unlikely to have time to regain that strength over the Atlantic, but if it moves across Florida quickly it could weaken less than it might if it were to stall.

Reintensification on the Atlantic Ocean will depend on how warm is the ocean surface temperature and are there any outside influence (like cold fronts).  While the Atlantic Ocean will help redevelop Ian the waters aren't nearly as warm as the tropical waters of the Gulf of Mexico.  So it is possible that Ian could maintain hurricane status even after crossing Florida it probably won't reach Category Four when it makes it second landfall on the Carolina coast.

[NWI_Irish96]

The key question will be how quickly it moves across Florida and reaches the Atlantic. It'll certainly lose strength and it won't be close to Category 5 when it reaches the Atlantic. But if it moves quickly, it could be strong enough that when it moves north and makes landfall again around Savannah or Charleston that it could still be quite a strong storm. Won't likely be anything like Hugo, for example, because it's unlikely to have time to regain that strength over the Atlantic, but if it moves across Florida quickly it could weaken less than it might if it were to stall.

Reintensification on the Atlantic Ocean will depend on how warm is the ocean surface temperature and are there any outside influence (like cold fronts).  While the Atlantic Ocean will help redevelop Ian the waters aren't nearly as warm as the tropical waters of the Gulf of Mexico.  So it is possible that Ian could maintain hurricane status even after crossing Florida it probably won't reach Category Four when it makes it second landfall on the Carolina coast.

The outer eyewall has just hit the coast near Melbroune. Last update over 2 hours ago already had it down to 65 mph, and it's probably down a bit more as it emerges out into the Atlantic. I doubt it becomes a hurricane again.

[1995hoo]

https://twitter.com/kylagaler/status/1575434245849464833

[NWI_Irish96]

https://twitter.com/kylagaler/status/1575434245849464833

Anybody who didn't evacuate is pretty much deserving whatever happens.

[1995hoo]

Anybody who didn't evacuate is pretty much deserving whatever happens.

That's what we said last night when we were watching the news and they were saying people who were trapped in their houses by rising waters were calling 911 seeking helicopter rescues and were upset when they were told helicopters couldn't fly in those kinds of winds (DUH!!!!).

[Rothman]

https://twitter.com/kylagaler/status/1575434245849464833

Anybody who didn't evacuate is pretty much deserving whatever happens.

Given that Sanibel Island is affluent, probably.

However, I do wonder about "house poor" Floridians who just can't bolt and afford a hotel for days on end.

And then, if you can't afford to live in a place that experiences frequent hurricanes requiring evacuation, it makes me wonder how feasible it is to move somewhere else.

But then, I am also not persuaded by the argument that weather forecasters often get the track incorrect, thus incentivizing people to stay put, including those who say they can't afford evacuation year after year...

...which makes me wonder about any pubicly available evacuation shelters.

[hotdogPi]

You don't need to repair the bridge completely; you just need a small amount of material sloping upward to allow for a ramp jump.

[1995hoo]

You don't need to repair the bridge completely; you just need a small amount of material sloping upward to allow for a ramp jump.

Heh, it IS in Lee County, Florida, so that sounds like a good General tip you have there.

[1995hoo]

....

...which makes me wonder about any pubicly available evacuation shelters.

Heh. Obviously it's a typo, but this brings to mind all sorts of troubling images of just what sort of evacuation shelters you have in mind.

[jmacswimmer]

https://twitter.com/kylagaler/status/1575434245849464833

From what I can tell upon pulling up GSV, the huge concrete slab visible is actually the bridge abutment which means that the bridge itself is intact and it was the embankment between the toll plaza and the actual start of the bridge that washed out.  So 1's suggestion would probably be the actual course of action here.

The other thing I wonder: it sounds like this failure was first discovered because of its location just beyond the toll plaza still on the mainland. So could there be additional damage further down the causeway that isn't yet known?

[1995hoo]

^^^^

That's a very interesting comment. I've been over that causeway as a passenger when we went to the Shell Museum but I never paid quite that much attention; I was more interested in looking around. The jersey wall type barrier on the right side of the picture is probably the key to determining where it is, as Street View shows that where the other transitions to bridge occur (there are three bridge spans on that causeway) they don't have that same sort of barrier. Nice job. So yes, there could almost certainly be additional damage further along. On the plus side, it theoretically means this particular breach might be easier to repair.

[webny99]

But then, I am also not persuaded by the argument that weather forecasters often get the track incorrect, thus incentivizing people to stay put, including those who say they can't afford evacuation year after year...

In this case, the initial forecasted track was almost exactly correct, but then there was a shift northward, and a shift back southward before landing. It was also approaching at an odd angle (almost perpendicular to the coast), so only a slight shift in the path made a big difference where it landed.

That led to the coverage and evacuation orders earlier in the week being heavily focused on the Tampa area, while it ended up being the Fort Myers area that got hit the hardest. So, I can't really put too much blame on someone from Naples not evacuating, when the forecasted track projected a landing as far north as Levy County (200 miles away) at one point.

[zzcarp]

^^^^

That's a very interesting comment. I've been over that causeway as a passenger when we went to the Shell Museum but I never paid quite that much attention; I was more interested in looking around. The jersey wall type barrier on the right side of the picture is probably the key to determining where it is, as Street View shows that where the other transitions to bridge occur (there are three bridge spans on that causeway) they don't have that same sort of barrier. Nice job. So yes, there could almost certainly be additional damage further along. On the plus side, it theoretically means this particular breach might be easier to repair.

This article has some additional information.

Meteorologist Bryan Bennett first showed the collapsed section on Twitter, revealing a missing portion of the causeway dozens of feet long. Storm reporters with the Tampa Bay Times also confirmed the damage, saying the missing section comes right before the bridge rises up toward the island.

Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis confirmed the Sanibel Causeway is "not passable" during a Thursday press briefing. He said both the causeway and the nearby Pine Island Bridge will both require a "structural rebuild."

From what I can tell from Streetview, it appears to be this section on the Fort Myers side of the causeway where the jersey barriers transition to the bridge rail. I don't see jersey barriers on the islands or the Sanibel side.

[kalvado]

However, I do wonder about "house poor" Floridians who just can't bolt and afford a hotel for days on end.

And then, if you can't afford to live in a place that experiences frequent hurricanes requiring evacuation, it makes me wonder how feasible it is to move somewhere else.

But then, I am also not persuaded by the argument that weather forecasters often get the track incorrect, thus incentivizing people to stay put, including those who say they can't afford evacuation year after year...

...which makes me wonder about any pubicly available evacuation shelters.

There are always people at the bottom of payscale doing least favorable jobs, even in paradise locations. Someone has to clean restrooms, wash dishes, keep up grounds after the storm, pick up trash... And those jobs don't necessarily come with the paycheck in excess of the bare minimum - even if that minimum is numerically higher than the same job would get in a less premium location.

[1995hoo]

^^^^

That's a very interesting comment. I've been over that causeway as a passenger when we went to the Shell Museum but I never paid quite that much attention; I was more interested in looking around. The jersey wall type barrier on the right side of the picture is probably the key to determining where it is, as Street View shows that where the other transitions to bridge occur (there are three bridge spans on that causeway) they don't have that same sort of barrier. Nice job. So yes, there could almost certainly be additional damage further along. On the plus side, it theoretically means this particular breach might be easier to repair.

This article has some additional information.

Meteorologist Bryan Bennett first showed the collapsed section on Twitter, revealing a missing portion of the causeway dozens of feet long. Storm reporters with the Tampa Bay Times also confirmed the damage, saying the missing section comes right before the bridge rises up toward the island.

Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis confirmed the Sanibel Causeway is "not passable" during a Thursday press briefing. He said both the causeway and the nearby Pine Island Bridge will both require a "structural rebuild."

From what I can tell from Streetview, it appears to be this section on the Fort Myers side of the causeway where the jersey barriers transition to the bridge rail. I don't see jersey barriers on the islands or the Sanibel side.

CNN now reports that three separate pieces of the causeway were washed away, along with part of the road crossing the middle island.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/us/sanibel-causeway-bridge-florida-hurricane-ian/index.html

[NWI_Irish96]

However, I do wonder about "house poor" Floridians who just can't bolt and afford a hotel for days on end.

Given the insane price of coastal real estate in Florida, I can't imagine that there are many people who live in evacuation zones that can't afford to either evacuate when needed, or sell their property and move elsewhere.

[JoePCool14]

On a somewhat related note, there's this amusing sign about coconuts coming from the other direction of the causeway, though I bet this sign might be gone now.

https://goo.gl/maps/dKpA1q4AoB9UPWxZ7