Hurricane Dorian

[edwaleni]

A place to discuss road closures, accidents, interstates in unidirectional mode and other road events around Hurricane Dorian.

[tolbs17]

It's going to smash into West Palm Beach and most of southern Florida. I hope everyone is ok there.

[edwaleni]

A heads up for those driving through Florida for the next week, FDOT shuts off and lowers the light fixtures on all of the exit ramps when under a hurricane threat.

This means most (but not all) major ramps and intersections will be unlit while Dorian is in the area.

Due to such a large amount of road construction throughout the state, contractors are responsible to properly tie down or remove any unnecessary equipment.

But it also means (especially around Orlando on I-4) you may see large washouts or mudslides where a work site has collapsed or a retaining wall has failed.

Be aware that you could drive into a sudden mudwash and lose control.

[tolbs17]

This is probably going to be worse than Florence! I'm sure I-4 and I-95 would all be one way traffic for northbound evacuation. People there should start buying water and food there now! Just for safety reasons. It's not good to wait last minute because that would leave you with nothing.

[edwaleni]

This is probably going to be worse than Florence! I'm sure I-4 and I-95 would all be one way traffic for northbound evacuation. People there should start buying water and food there now! Just for safety reasons. It's not good to wait last minute because that would leave you with nothing.

You were saying?

[The Ghostbuster]

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

[NE2]

Yawn.

[tolbs17]

This is probably going to be worse than Florence! I'm sure I-4 and I-95 would all be one way traffic for northbound evacuation. People there should start buying water and food there now! Just for safety reasons. It's not good to wait last minute because that would leave you with nothing.

You were saying?

Yes. 

[ozarkman417]

Since it's Florida we're talking about here, there will be at least one person out there riding the waves.

[jeffandnicole]

The only thing of certainty...don't expect any forecaster to admit how wrong they were when they originally predicted the storm would be a Cat 1 over Puerto Rico then downgrade to a tropical storm before hitting Florida.  The storm missed the islands and greatly intensified, reducing the preparation time for those in its path.

[tolbs17]

The only thing of certainty...don't expect any forecaster to admit how wrong they were when they originally predicted the storm would be a Cat 1 over Puerto Rico then downgrade to a tropical storm before hitting Florida.  The storm missed the islands and greatly intensified, reducing the preparation time for those in its path.

We hope that it's not as bad as Irma or Matthew...

[Henry]

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.

[jeffandnicole]

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.

Unlike a tornado or earthquake, usually you do have several days to evacuate.  If someone is unable to evacuate, it's because they didn't try or chose to stay until it was too late.

[Max Rockatansky]

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.

I've never experienced a hurricane, given I've lived most of my life in Wisconsin. I would probably be terrified if I was unable to evacuate from the path of one.

I echo those sentiments, having lived in Chicago and Los Angeles, where hurricanes are foreign to the locals.

Unlike a tornado or earthquake, usually you do have several days to evacuate.  If someone is unable to evacuate, it's because they didn't try or chose to stay until it was too late.

The worst part is when you're the one who can't evacuate because you're in charge of the recovery effort.  Sitting through one of those hurricanes is completely miserable and feels like you're next to a freight line for hours.  I'd much rather go through dozens of earthquakes over a hurricane again.  One of the biggest perks about moving back west is that worrying about hurricanes isn't a thing.

[MNHighwayMan]

It's going to smash into West Palm Beach and most of southern Florida. I hope everyone is ok there.

That's not a given.

The only thing of certainty...don't expect any forecaster to admit how wrong they were

Not this shit again.

If someone is unable to evacuate, it's because they didn't try or chose to stay until it was too late.

Or because they couldn't afford to/had no means to evacuate. It's not nearly as simple as you think.

[jeffandnicole]

The only thing of certainty...don't expect any forecaster to admit how wrong they were

Not this shit again.

Don't hurt yourself banging your head.  Instead, direct your energy to telling forecasters to, you know, FORECAST PROPERLY!

If someone is unable to evacuate, it's because they didn't try or chose to stay until it was too late.

Or because they couldn't afford to/had no means to evacuate. It's not nearly as simple as you think.

Nearly every town/county has an evacuation center.  If someone wanted to evacuate, there's some way for them to do so.  Florida is well prepared to assist anyone who wants assistance for a hurricane.

[MNHighwayMan]

Don't hurt yourself banging your head.  Instead, direct your energy to telling forecasters to, you know, FORECAST PROPERLY!

They do.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/03/21/why-people-think-weather-forecasts-are-bad-when-they-are-actually-pretty-good/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/04/02/how-meteorologists-compare-to-other-professions-that-predict-the-future/

Unfortunately, I can't help you understand that, since you either can't or won't.

[Rothman]

The problem I have with this defense of forecasters is that it amounts to claiming that the meteorologists are always being right in a sense.  I still find it stretching the actual analysis that they do. 

Sure, they deal with probabilities, but to just dismiss it when their forecasts are wrong as "well, they never said it was 100% certain"  is far too forgiving.  When you put out your best estimate and it doesn't pan out, your best estimate was still wrong.  Hiding behind the probability argument is inappropriate given the way meteorologists present their forecasts to the public -- and I am not referring Weather Channel-ish schlock and hype, either.  When their forecast is wrong, it is wrong.

[jeffandnicole]

Don't hurt yourself banging your head.  Instead, direct your energy to telling forecasters to, you know, FORECAST PROPERLY!

They do.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/03/21/why-people-think-weather-forecasts-are-bad-when-they-are-actually-pretty-good/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/04/02/how-meteorologists-compare-to-other-professions-that-predict-the-future/

Unfortunately, I can't help you understand that, since you either can't or won't.

I'm a little confused.  I'm not sure why you would post articles that, once you get away from flashy, clickbait type headlines, seem to agree with my statements more than yours.

Both articles aren't much more than links to other websites that are simply opinion and blog based websites.

The first link includes a quote from a meteorologist that says, inherently, forecasts are always going to be wrong!

Both sites include graphs that show that hurricane forecasts are almost always wrong; but they're not as wrong as they were upwards of 50 years ago.

Also, there was this passage:

Ok, let's get back to the comparison of meteorologists to other professions that predict the future. The website The Mathematical Investor posed the question, "How accurate are market forecasters?" Based on analysis of 68 market forecasters, they concluded:

The top-ranking forecaster was 78.7% accurate by our metric. The next three had 72.5%, 71.8% and 70.5% accuracy scores. A total of 11 of the 68 had accuracy scores exceeding 60%. At the other end of our ranking, two had accuracy scores near 17%; three others had scores 25% or lower. A total of 18 had accuracy scores less than 40%.

A study out of Hamilton College analyzed the accuracy of political pundits. In their analysis of 26 political experts, they considered over 472 predictions made over a 16-month period on Sunday talk shows. The results, summarized in a press release, confirmed that
only nine of the prognosticators they studied could predict more accurately than a coin flip. Two were significantly less accurate, and the remaining 14 were not statistically any better or worse than a coin flip.

Meteorologists are able to predict, with up to 90% or more accuracy within 2 to 5 days, how a complex fluid on a rotating planet with oceans, mountains, and varying heat distributions changes. Kudos colleagues.

Based on that, the absolute best weather forecaster was wrong 22% of the time.  Note the line also says "BY OUR METRIC".  What is that metric?  Wrong 24 hours in advance?  Wrong 48 hours in advance?  Wrong 30 minutes in advance?

Only 11 out of 68 were correct 60% of the time...and that includes a variation of +/- 2 degrees.  Yet, 18 were current less than 40% of the time.  Now, I'm not the world's greatest math wiz, but it is approaching twice as likely that a weather forecasters will be wrong 6 out of 10 times, rather than being right 6 out of ten times.

Yet, when they compare political pundits, they stated that 9 were better than average and 2 were significantly worse than average, which, again, not being a math wiz here, says that political pundits were 450% more likely to get it right than wrong much of the time.

Honestly, if they were right 95% of the time, guess what - those that are suddenly in the path of Dorian that weren't a day before doesn't give a shit about how a weather forecaster predicted Hurricane Katrina correctly, because they're focused on their life being at stake due to Hurricane Dorian.  Their job is to get it right 100% of the time, because peoples lives are at stake.  If a political pundit gets it wrong, then what...someone doesn't get a tax break they wanted? 

[hotdogPi]

Regarding hurricanes, that's what the uncertainty cone is for. (If it's outside the cone, that's the model's fault, not the reporter's fault.)

For chance of rain/snow, 80% chance means it happens 80% of the time. If 80% chances happen significantly less than 80% of the time (even 75% over a long period of time is enough), something's wrong, but I don't think that this is the case.

For temperature, I think that they should display something like "78±3" instead of just "78".

[MNHighwayMan]

Ok, let's get back to the comparison of meteorologists to other professions that predict the future. The website The Mathematical Investor posed the question, "How accurate are market forecasters?" Based on analysis of 68 market forecasters, they concluded:

The top-ranking forecaster was 78.7% accurate by our metric. The next three had 72.5%, 71.8% and 70.5% accuracy scores. A total of 11 of the 68 had accuracy scores exceeding 60%. At the other end of our ranking, two had accuracy scores near 17%; three others had scores 25% or lower. A total of 18 had accuracy scores less than 40%.

A study out of Hamilton College analyzed the accuracy of political pundits. In their analysis of 26 political experts, they considered over 472 predictions made over a 16-month period on Sunday talk shows. The results, summarized in a press release, confirmed that
only nine of the prognosticators they studied could predict more accurately than a coin flip. Two were significantly less accurate, and the remaining 14 were not statistically any better or worse than a coin flip.

Meteorologists are able to predict, with up to 90% or more accuracy within 2 to 5 days, how a complex fluid on a rotating planet with oceans, mountains, and varying heat distributions changes. Kudos colleagues.

Based on that, the absolute best weather forecaster was wrong 22% of the time.  Note the line also says "BY OUR METRIC".  What is that metric?  Wrong 24 hours in advance?  Wrong 48 hours in advance?  Wrong 30 minutes in advance?

Only 11 out of 68 were correct 60% of the time...and that includes a variation of +/- 2 degrees.  Yet, 18 were current less than 40% of the time.  Now, I'm not the world's greatest math wiz, but it is approaching twice as likely that a weather forecasters will be wrong 6 out of 10 times, rather than being right 6 out of ten times.

That quote was about financial market predictors, not meteorologists.

The first link includes a quote from a meteorologist that says, inherently, forecasts are always going to be wrong!

And they are, because the atmosphere is a dynamic, ever-changing system with many, many variables. You have to pick a point at which to stop, analyze the variables at that moment, and make a prediction. Because of that fact, there is an inherent amount of wrongness to any prediction. It is impossible to predict the weather with 100 percent certainty.

P.S. I'm still waiting for you to post a shred of evidence that meteorologists are as wrong as you believe they are; evidence that isn't "because I said so" or "this doesn't fit my anecdotal experiences."

[jeffandnicole]

P.S. I'm still waiting for you to post a shred of evidence that meteorologists are as wrong as you believe they are; evidence that isn't "because I said so" or "this doesn't fit my anecdotal experiences."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/03/21/why-people-think-weather-forecasts-are-bad-when-they-are-actually-pretty-good/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/04/02/how-meteorologists-compare-to-other-professions-that-predict-the-future/

[tolbs17]

And let's pray it doesn't circle around like Harvey did.

[LM117]

NC Gov. Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency yesterday.

https://www.witn.com/content/news/Governor-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-Hurricane-Dorian-558852531.html

[tolbs17]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/dorian-is-continuing-to-grow-and-strengthen

When looking at this, this could be similar to Irene and Matthew. I hate these hurricanes because they close school and we end up having to go 30 days straight without any breaks. I'm in high school, and it's my last year.