USFL 2022

[sturmde]

So, the single city bubble method should allow the USFL to have less covid worries, cut out transportation costs, and maximize use of resources at the two stadiums in Birmingham... the teams set up so far is:

South Division			North Division
Birmingham Stallions			New Jersey Generals
Houston Gamblers			Michigan Panthers
New Orleans Breakers			Philadelphia Stars
Tampa Bay Bandits			Pittsburgh Maulers

All 2022 games are in Birmingham.  (43 of them: 40 regular season games... 10 weeks, 4 games per weekend plus 2 semifinals and a final)
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What do you think will happen in 2023?  Merger with the XFL?  What teams would you add from the XFL, or "bring back" from the USFL trademarks?
I think there's no doubt it makes sense to grab the St Louis Battlehawks from the XFL, and bring back the Oakland Invaders from the USFL era.  How would you see the USFL expanding with spring ball?

[NWI_Irish96]

I like the idea of playing a winter/spring football league at one or more hub cities so you can reduce travel and also can name teams for cities where it's too cold to play games in February.

Going forward, I'd use Saint Louis and San Antonio. They're two cities that have domes that could be used and don't have NFL teams so you might get local fans to come out.

Have the teams based in San Antonio called San Antonio, San Diego, Oakland and Portland. Have the teams based in Saint Louis called Saint Louis, Brimingham, Columbus and Virginia Beach.

Avoid the afternoons on the weekends. Conflicts with college basketball, NASCAR, golf. Play the games at (all times eastern) 8pm Saturday, 5pm and 8pm Sunday, and 8pm Monday. Get 1-2 games each weekend on broadcast networks, put one each weekend on a streaming service (probably the Sunday 5pm game), and the rest on cable channels.

[SP Cook]

What do you think will happen in 2023? 

Continental Football League 1965-69.  Bankrupt, surviving teams became semi-pro. 

World Football League - 1974- mid season 75.  Bankrupt.  Police seized multiple teams uniforms after last game.

United States Football League ( ver. 1) - 1984-86.  Bankrupt.

World League of American Football (ver. 1) - 1993-95  NFL owned with teams in North America and Europe, USA/Canada part failed, morphed into:

World League of American Football (ver. 2), later NFL Europe, later NFL Europa League 1997-2007.  Shut down by NFL owners after losing money tens of millions of $$ per year.

Canadian Football League USA - 1993-96.  All teams went bankrupt, resumed being a Canada only venture.

XFL (ver 1) - 2001.  So unpopular that NBC, which was on the hook for a second season, paid it to go de facto bankrupt.

United Football League 2009-12.  Still legally exists, claims to be on "hiatus" . 

Spring League of American Football (stillborn, 1996).  Never played a down.

Alliance of American Football - 2019.  Bankrupt after 10 weeks.  Players were kicked out of their motels, some without the money to get bus fare home.

XFL (ver 2) - 2020.  Closed at mid-season.  Bankrupt, sold to become:

XFL (ver 3) - 2023?

So my prediction for 23, and certainly by 24, is this venture will join the large dustheap of failed pro football leagues.  The American people say they want more football.  Until given more football, when they ignore it totally.  Actually, they are fine with the NFL, during football season, and enjoy all the other sports in their seasons. 

[ran4sh]

The 2020 XFL only ceased operation because of Covid, I wonder what would have happened if Covid wasn't a thing and they were able to continue playing.

[sturmde]

...XFL (ver 2) - 2020.  Closed at mid-season.  Bankrupt, sold to become:

XFL (ver 3) - 2023?

So my prediction for 23, and certainly by 24, is this venture will join the large dustheap of failed pro football leagues.  The American people say they want more football.  Until given more football, when they ignore it totally.  Actually, they are fine with the NFL, during football season, and enjoy all the other sports in their seasons.

The USFL's first year went decently.  The second year was impacted near the end once Trump and other owner$ forced the fall issue.  The last season playing with the doom of fall ahead killed it.  Otherwise, it was working fairly well.
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NFL Europa wasn't doing so badly at the end either...
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Spring, and *staying in spring* could work.  Along with this USFL having Fox as the owners, and Fox and NBC jointly as the broadcasters.  It's like this group has taken all those examples you listed, figured out what was wrong with them, and set USFL '22 up for a chance at success.
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I think the XFL ends up merging in.  A 16-team late spring league like this could work... and be more interesting than "modern" baseball (yawn).  If they have a presence in Southern cities and cities the NFL spurned (St Louis, San Diego, San Antonio, Orlando, etc.) along with the teams they've set out for USFL '22, it could work.  Again, *could*.  But a big $pender comes along thinking they'll compete with the NFL... nope.
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BTW, most of those leagues failed when the NFL was at 26 and 28 teams.  Now that it's at a full 32, and has a shaky franchise or two (Jacksonville, the Chargers) that seem to have stabilized with ownership (Jax) or stadium (LAC)... this era's NFL isn't going to see any franchises move.  A spring league is the only way other cities like Salt Lake, Austin, or Portland are going to have a football team.

[1995hoo]

I certainly think SP Cook's skepticism is warranted, even if he has some of his facts wrong (one of the CFL teams in the USA didn't fold–they won the Grey Cup but then moved to Montreal after the original Cleveland Browns relocated to their stadium).

I've always thought the conflict with the NCAA basketball tournament (and, relatedly, the conference tournaments the week or two before that) is one major issue for spring football, even though the spring season runs later than that so it's not a total conflict. There are other conflicts as well, of course, some sports-related and some not. I think the original USFL's 18-game schedule was too long to be viable in the long-term due to summer heat in the southern cities that were, at the time, a major part of the league's strategy (Phoenix and Jacksonville had no NFL team then, for example; San Antonio still doesn't, but at least they now have a dome).

I thought the revived XFL had some potential in part because they weren't trying to fill NFL-sized stadiums (even though a couple of teams played in NFL stadiums). I enjoyed the games I saw but didn't make it to a game prior to COVID terminating the season.

One thing I seriously wonder about, though, is what space there really is in the sports market these days. Back in the 1980s, sports–and sports television–were far less of an ever-present part of our society than they are now. ESPN was in its early years and cable TV was a luxury lots of us didn't have access to (and I mean that literally–the neighborhood where I lived didn't get cable until late 1986). College sports got far less TV coverage than they do now both because of a lack of available outlets to air it and because of very-restrictive NCAA rules that are no longer in place. Even MLB and NHL teams didn't typically have all their games on TV, and some of the few "regional sports networks" (as we now call them) that existed were premium channels (here in the DC area, Home Team Sports was a premium channel; it's now NBC Sports Washington)–and, moreover, the idea of an "alternate channel" that comes on when two local teams have games at the same time was unheard-of then. The North American Soccer League folded in 1984 and the indoor soccer leagues were always small potatoes. Even the Masters was harder to watch on TV back then because Augusta National allowed only limited coverage of the back nine on the weekends.

So in that era, there was a lot more room for a league like the USFL to come onto the scene and get attention, and it did get a lot of attention. I question whether the same opportunity exists today just because there is so much more wall-to-wall sports broadcasting (and so much more product that has been created to fill the available broadcasting space).

[ethanhopkin14]

Spring leagues are dumb.

Sports out of their traditional season just don't work, and I was a San Antonio Commanders season ticket holder, so I really wanted the AAF to succeed. 

This is what the USFL or the XFL should do.  run their league during the fall.  Play their games on Tuesdays.  They don't have to compete with the big colleges, NFL or Friday night high school football.  There is a market for Tuesday night.  Everyone is now on the down slide from Monday Night Football, itching for Thursday Night Football.  The audience is captive then.  Most of the spring leagues problem is playing out of season.  Keeping eyeballs on it during a time when eyeballs drift to other things.  Make it innovative but don't stray too far from the general idea of football.  I say make the whole league design their uniforms based on similar designs of the NFL from the 60s-80s.  Make it traditional, something that's new yet familiar.  Most of the time these new teams in these new leagues look more like teams you see in a low budget TV show masquerading as professional teams.

Also, as to the previous list, the UFL was a fall league. 

[formulanone]

The fans want more football, but they really only want more of their team(s) football.

They'll eat up the combine minutiae, draft noise, the info of OTRs, practices, pre-season, and college signing days. Figure that in with fantasy and prognostication, and all the encompassing trade and cap talk, the press conferences, and then you have to question...Just who really has time for the adoration of a other team, let alone a league that's going to play on the level of a college team, with the threat of the best players slipping away to the NFL?

[abefroman329]

I do kinda think that, if Americans actually wanted more pro football, then the Arena Football League would still be around.

[jlam]

The USFL could probably get some primetime games on Wednesdays or Fridays, but those could conflict with other sports.

[ethanhopkin14]

I do kinda think that, if Americans actually wanted more pro football, then the Arena Football League would still be around.

I don't think that's apples to apples.  I worked the AFL for years. It doesn't really resemble football. Maybe if you squint real hard.

[abefroman329]

I do kinda think that, if Americans actually wanted more pro football, then the Arena Football League would still be around.

I don't think that's apples to apples.  I worked the AFL for years. It doesn't really resemble football. Maybe if you squint real hard.

It most resembled whatever football-esque game they were playing at the beginning of Starship Troopers.

[SP Cook]

The USFL's first year went decently.

Otherwise, it was working fairly well.
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NFL Europa wasn't doing so badly at the end either...

BTW, most of those leagues failed when the NFL was at 26 and 28 teams.  Now that it's at a full 32, and has a shaky franchise or two (Jacksonville, the Chargers) that seem to have stabilized with ownership (Jax) or stadium (LAC)... this era's NFL isn't going to see any franchises move.  A spring league is the only way other cities like Salt Lake, Austin, or Portland are going to have a football team.

Still went broke.  But as to franchise shifts in the NFL, the era of stadium extortion is not over.  Because of the unique nearly complete revenue sharing model in the NFL, an owner can move his time virtually anywhere without worrying about the live gate. 

In the next few years:

Buffalo. the oldest stadium (Soldier Field was 95% demolished and a new stadium built  inside the shell) and a declining rust belt town in a state that is in bad shape.  Looks like they are figuring it out, but don't count anything until the shovels move.

Baltimore.  A truly failed city, and the NFL has left it once already.  Lease is up in 27.

Cincinnati.  A fairly small metro area, and the Bengals have never had the vast regional following that the Reds have.  Cincinnati is doing OK, but its not going to grow.  Lease is up in 26.

Nashville.  A fast growing metro area, but lease is up in 27.  Certainly the taxpayers will be hooked for major "renovations" . 

Jacksonville.  Never has really caught on with the locals, and is hemmed in by other teams, and by the vastly more popular college game, to more of less just its metro.  Lease is up in 30.

New Orleans.  Team was really on its way out of town before the Katrina deal made it "unpatriotic"  or something to leave.  It seems to have settled in as a mid-sized market (its TV market #50) and quite poor.  Lease is up in 25.

In sum, there are plenty of teams that could move, and there are towns/counties/states that will call teams' bluffs and somebody will move. 

Personally, I think the Bengals will be in SLC before the decade is out. 

[ethanhopkin14]

Buffalo. the oldest stadium 

Lambeau Field?

[NWI_Irish96]

The USFL's first year went decently.

Otherwise, it was working fairly well.
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NFL Europa wasn't doing so badly at the end either...

BTW, most of those leagues failed when the NFL was at 26 and 28 teams.  Now that it's at a full 32, and has a shaky franchise or two (Jacksonville, the Chargers) that seem to have stabilized with ownership (Jax) or stadium (LAC)... this era's NFL isn't going to see any franchises move.  A spring league is the only way other cities like Salt Lake, Austin, or Portland are going to have a football team.

Still went broke.  But as to franchise shifts in the NFL, the era of stadium extortion is not over.  Because of the unique nearly complete revenue sharing model in the NFL, an owner can move his time virtually anywhere without worrying about the live gate. 

In the next few years:

Buffalo. the oldest stadium (Soldier Field was 95% demolished and a new stadium built  inside the shell) and a declining rust belt town in a state that is in bad shape.  Looks like they are figuring it out, but don't count anything until the shovels move.

Baltimore.  A truly failed city, and the NFL has left it once already.  Lease is up in 27.

Cincinnati.  A fairly small metro area, and the Bengals have never had the vast regional following that the Reds have.  Cincinnati is doing OK, but its not going to grow.  Lease is up in 26.

Nashville.  A fast growing metro area, but lease is up in 27.  Certainly the taxpayers will be hooked for major "renovations" . 

Jacksonville.  Never has really caught on with the locals, and is hemmed in by other teams, and by the vastly more popular college game, to more of less just its metro.  Lease is up in 30.

New Orleans.  Team was really on its way out of town before the Katrina deal made it "unpatriotic"  or something to leave.  It seems to have settled in as a mid-sized market (its TV market #50) and quite poor.  Lease is up in 25.

In sum, there are plenty of teams that could move, and there are towns/counties/states that will call teams' bluffs and somebody will move. 

Personally, I think the Bengals will be in SLC before the decade is out. 

The NFL is unique in that 100% of the TV money is national and none is local, so market size matters much less. All you need to be able to do to be viable is sell 60,000 seats for 9 home games, for a total of 540,000 and you're fine. New stadiums matter some because the newer amenities bring added revenue to the teams but every market the NFL is in right now other than possibly Jacksonville is fine with revenue from attendance.

None of Baltimore/Cincinnati/Tennessee is going anywhere. Buffalo legitimately needs a new stadium in order to remain there but it looks like they're getting it.

The only really complicated situation is New Orleans. The city, and really the entire region, really needs the team to stay. I don't know enough about the Superdome to know if it can be renovated or if a new facility needs to be built, but it really needs to happen. Not just to keep the Saints, but to be able to compete with Atlanta, Dallas and Houston for Final Fours, college football playoff games, etc. The city of NO doesn't have the money to finance what is needed so the state really ought to step up.

Jacksonville never should have had a team to begin with. I can see them being moved to London if the NFL can work out the logistics and get buy in from the players.

[mhking]

Out of the cities you've mentioned, only Jacksonville is in true danger of losing its franchise. The others won't go anywhere. Buffalo will get some kind of stadium deal done -- whether in NY state or on the Ontario side of the border.

Baltimore is definitely not going anywhere. The fans would burn the city down rather than see a team leave again. Nashville fought awful hard to get the Titans in, and it's doubtful they'll let them leave easily. New Orleans won't go anywhere - with the money coming from Final Fours and Super Bowls, I can't see them allowing the Saints to go anywhere. The city has turned around enough in the post-Katrina years that it'll support the team, no matter what. The big question (as is mentioned), is whether or not the Superdome can handle a remodel versus a new domed stadium.

Cincinnati? I can't even imagine them leaving (though I never imagined the Browns picking up and leaving Cleveland either, so I know -- never say never).

The bigger question is whether or not the League will go to 34/36 teams.

[JayhawkCO]

Jacksonville.  Never has really caught on with the locals

Have you been to Jacksonville to actually make this statement?  I used to live there and my parents still do.  The town loves the Jags.  The Jags haven't given them much to love in return recently.

[SP Cook]

Have you been to Jacksonville to actually make this statement?  I used to live there and my parents still do.  The town loves the Jags. 

Then how come they tarp over seats (seat that are un-tarped for the Georgia-Florida game and sometimes the Gator Bowl), and how come they still cannot sell out even the reduced capacity, and how come they have agreed to play a home game, every year, in a foreign country? 

Odd way of showing love.

[JayhawkCO]

Have you been to Jacksonville to actually make this statement?  I used to live there and my parents still do.  The town loves the Jags. 

Then how come they tarp over seats (seat that are un-tarped for the Georgia-Florida game and sometimes the Gator Bowl), and how come they still cannot sell out even the reduced capacity, and how come they have agreed to play a home game, every year, in a foreign country? 

Odd way of showing love.

A) They've been shitty recently. 
B) The owner also owns Fulham, a London-based soccer club.  I think he's trying to increase their market share with U.K. American football fans.

[SP Cook]

Actually, Jacksonville started tarping off seats in 2005, and has continued to do so ever since.  It made the playoffs in 05, and 07.  And in 17.  Before all the tarps.

As to this "international"  angle, Jacksonville is among the least international NFL cities.  And the only one on the east coast whose airport has no service to any part of Europe. 

They play there for the same reason they tarp over seats.  To reduce the number of tickets they have to try to sell in Jacksonville.

[1995hoo]

If tarping off seats–and flat-out removing several thousand seats from the stadium–is the standard, then the Redskins should have moved several years ago. FedEx Field seated as many as 91,704 at one point, but between removing portions of the upper level at either end of the field combined with tarping off seats to reduced ticket demand, the current capacity is listed as 67,717–and that includes the club level, which doesn't count towards a "sellout" per NFL rules. Old RFK Stadium seated 55,750 in its final NFL configuration, for comparison purposes.

[abefroman329]

If tarping off seats–and flat-out removing several thousand seats from the stadium–is the standard, then the Redskins should have moved several years ago. FedEx Field seated as many as 91,704 at one point, but between removing portions of the upper level at either end of the field combined with tarping off seats to reduced ticket demand, the current capacity is listed as 67,717–and that includes the club level, which doesn't count towards a "sellout" per NFL rules. Old RFK Stadium seated 55,750 in its final NFL configuration, for comparison purposes.

I mean, it definitely wasn't a good sign when they started closing the upper bowl of then-Philips Arena for Thrashers games...

[golden eagle]

I don't think the Jags are going anywhere anytime soon because of this:

https://www.jaguars.com/news/jaguars-announce-plans-for-downtown-development

It wouldn't make sense to invest that kind of money into the project, only for the centerpiece to leave in the near future.