US 93 In Arizona Progress

[Bobby5280]

so this will be the new south terminus of Interstate 11

Kingman would probably remain the South terminus of I-11 for quite some time, if the NV/AZ state line doesn't remain as the I-11 terminus for many years to come.

And that's all fine for the time being, considering the stupid mess of proposed routing options I-11 has well outside the Phoenix metro. Lawmakers are wanting the highway to serve the purpose of seeding big housing developments out past Buckeye.

Here's the funny thing: by the time such a highway could be built out there the residential real estate market in America will change into a very very different thing. Demographic decline caused by so many millions of young adults being priced out of parenthood is going to absolutely gut the demand side for these big-ass, stupid McMansions. Single childless adults and childless couples aren't going to need big ass houses built way the hell outside town. They probably won't have the money for such homes either, even if the currently high prices absolutely crater. The homes still have big utility costs, big maintenance costs and big property tax costs. Most current owners of big suburban homes have this idea in their heads that, in 10-20 years when they're looking to down-size, they'll be able to sell these homes at a nice profit. Who the hell is going to be there to buy those houses? More highly educated H1-B Visa immigrants maybe? 20 years from now even highly motivated immigrants won't want to come to this country anymore with the direction where things are headed.

I think the big changes that are due to happen in America's residential housing industry could end up shifting the routing of I-11 back in more logical territory, along US-60 and down Loop 303 to I-10.

[Max Rockatansky]

Really all that is probably actually necessary is an I-11 that spans from Las Vegas to Kingman.  A couple improvements here and there along US 93 near Wickenburg is all that is really necessary south of I-40.  Buckeye has been selling this suburban Manifest Destiny dream west of the White Tanks for decades.  Trouble is that they are dependent upon the state and taxpayers being willing to build up their infrastructure.  I'll believe in I-11 west of the White Tanks when (more like "if") shovels start breaking ground. 

[Bobby5280]

I think US-60, from the 303 loop going Northwest, should be upgraded into a freeway to at least the AZ-74 intersection regardless of whatever happens with I-11. Wickenburg needs its own bypass route to direct long haul trucks around town (rather than thru it). The bypass needs to get around those goofy roundabouts on the Northwest side of town.

[Max Rockatansky]

I never saw the roundabouts as that big of a deal.  The bigger issue always was the two-lane segments north of Wickenburg through the Joshua Tree Forest.  Almost every time I drove through there (which was about 6-12 times a month circa 2010-2013) there would be a slow truck holding up traffic.  There wasn't really enough room to pull off safe passes with high volumes of oncoming traffic. 

[Bobby5280]

There is no doubt the remaining 2-lane segments of US-93 desperately need to be 4-lane divided at the very least just for the sake of safety. It's foolish and negligent to keep those 2-lane segments kept as is.

The only good thing I can say about the seven roundabouts in and NW of Wickenburg is they don't have traffic signals. They're, technically, free-flowing. But the roundabouts still work as very significant "speed bumps" for thru traffic. Most of them are rated for just 20mph. A vehicle's fuel economy is going to kind of suck with all the acceleration and deceleration going on in-between each roundabout. A freeway bypass would hopefully get around all of that. But the trick is figuring out a bypass route that is realistic to build. Development in and around Wickenburg is a scattered mess. All the hillsides and other topographic features compound the routing situation further.

[Max Rockatansky]

The car I was using during that era was a 2011 Ford Fiesta.  I averaged 42.4 MPG over the life that car.  When I some it the average traveling speed was 49 MPH.  The fact that you don't have to stop at a roundabout is by default more efficient than any stoppage in a conventional ICE.

[vdeane]

It's been since updated here https://azdot.gov/projects/northwest-district-projects/i-40us-93-west-kingman-traffic-interchange

But they were using it a few years ago in a few places:

https://www.facebook.com/AZDOT/posts/plans-are-moving-forward-for-improvement-to-the-us-93i-40-interchange-in-west-ki/4137078839697121/

so this will be the new south terminus of Interstate 11

Not for a while, if ever.  US 93 from Kingman to the Hoover Dam bypass isn't a freeway, and aside from this interchange, I haven't heard anything on upgrading it; it seems Arizona is prioritizing the section south of there, especially the parts of I-11 that would be a commuter freeway for exurbs of Phoenix that haven't been built yet.

[FightingIrish]

so this will be the new south terminus of Interstate 11

Kingman would probably remain the South terminus of I-11 for quite some time, if the NV/AZ state line doesn't remain as the I-11 terminus for many years to come.

And that's all fine for the time being, considering the stupid mess of proposed routing options I-11 has well outside the Phoenix metro. Lawmakers are wanting the highway to serve the purpose of seeding big housing developments out past Buckeye.

Here's the funny thing: by the time such a highway could be built out there the residential real estate market in America will change into a very very different thing. Demographic decline caused by so many millions of young adults being priced out of parenthood is going to absolutely gut the demand side for these big-ass, stupid McMansions. Single childless adults and childless couples aren't going to need big ass houses built way the hell outside town. They probably won't have the money for such homes either, even if the currently high prices absolutely crater. The homes still have big utility costs, big maintenance costs and big property tax costs. Most current owners of big suburban homes have this idea in their heads that, in 10-20 years when they're looking to down-size, they'll be able to sell these homes at a nice profit. Who the hell is going to be there to buy those houses? More highly educated H1-B Visa immigrants maybe? 20 years from now even highly motivated immigrants won't want to come to this country anymore with the direction where things are headed.

I think the big changes that are due to happen in America's residential housing industry could end up shifting the routing of I-11 back in more logical territory, along US-60 and down Loop 303 to I-10.

So, how exactly would this freeway connection to Loop 303 be built? Looks like quite a few housing developments are going to be destroyed to make that happen.

Meanwhile, the Wickenburg to Buckeye route is virtually empty by comparison. Sure, it doesn't extend to the Phoenix city limits. But that's impossible these days. A connection to I-10, and even to I-8, would certainly be adequate. Any closer is just unrealistic, even for fantasizing road geeks.

Just split I-11 off north of Wickenburg and run it south toward I-10. Upgrade AZ 85 to interstate standards (as I-11) down to its termination at I-8. And, with that, a direct interstate connection between I-10 (near Phoenix) and Las Vegas, plus a connection to San Diego AND a southern bypass of the Phoenix metro. Sounds pretty simple to me. More so than bulldozing an interstate down US 60 from Wickenburg to Loop 303. That's not realistic.

[Bobby5280]

So, how exactly would this freeway connection to Loop 303 be built? Looks like quite a few housing developments are going to be destroyed to make that happen.

There is more than enough vacant space on the NW corner of the existing US-60/AZ-303 interchange to build a new "Y" interchange with flyover ramps. The existing The partial cloverleaf interchange already pushes housing development back significantly from the West side of US-60. There's nothing but empty land on the East side of US-60.

Going NW from the 303 loop there is enough ROW in place to add slip ramps, frontage roads, etc. There are existing access roads alongside US-60 in some spots, with flare-outs to make room for ramps. And there is quite a bit of space between the US-60 main lanes and the rail line running parallel to it. It's possible some properties along the way to AZ-74 might have to be acquired and removed. But that highway upgrade situation is a lot more feasible than many other freeway projects that have been completed.

Meanwhile, the Wickenburg to Buckeye route is virtually empty by comparison. Sure, it doesn't extend to the Phoenix city limits. But that's impossible these days. A connection to I-10, and even to I-8, would certainly be adequate. Any closer is just unrealistic, even for fantasizing road geeks.

Nobody driving from Phoenix to Las Vegas is going to drive clear out past Buckeye before turning North. They're going to take US-60 to the Wickenburg area to get there and then get on I-11 at that point.

The monster housing development being proposed way out past the White Tank Mountains seems especially stupid in light of what is happening with the housing industry and the big downturn in America's generational demographics. There will not be enough sustained customer demand to keep that fantasy development afloat. They might get some dumb home buyers to sign up and get things rolling. But any positive gains would fall apart going into the 2030's. And that's assuming we don't have a housing industry crisis within the next couple or so years. Current conditions (extreme prices, high interest rates, record levels of personal debt) make a severe market downtown an ever more likely thing.

By the time I-11 could be completed way out there the resulting freeway would probably be functionally worthless.

[Max Rockatansky]

Where is K12?  I'm sure he has lots to say of Buckeye's ambitions west of the White Tanks?

[Plutonic Panda]

The car I was using during that era was a 2011 Ford Fiesta.  I averaged 42.4 MPG over the life that car.  When I some it the average traveling speed was 49 MPH.  The fact that you don't have to stop at a roundabout is by default more efficient than any stoppage in a conventional ICE.

You don't always have to stop at traditional intersections either in fact, sometimes you don't need to slow down at all. And if the city times it right and you go the speed limit, you can hit them all green.

[Max Rockatansky]

The car I was using during that era was a 2011 Ford Fiesta.  I averaged 42.4 MPG over the life that car.  When I some it the average traveling speed was 49 MPH.  The fact that you don't have to stop at a roundabout is by default more efficient than any stoppage in a conventional ICE.

You don't always have to stop at traditional intersections either in fact, sometimes you don't need to slow down at all. And if the city times it right and you go the speed limit, you can hit them all green.

Which nobody was hitting in Wickenburg pre-roundabouts. 

[pderocco]

Nobody driving from Phoenix to Las Vegas is going to drive clear out past Buckeye before turning North. They're going to take US-60 to the Wickenburg area to get there and then get on I-11 at that point.

That depends on what color Google is showing on the maps for I-10 vs US-60. If you're theory about Buckeye development failing comes true, then 15 years from now people may very well take I-10 to get to I-11 to avoid the US-60 bottlenecks.

The monster housing development being proposed way out past the White Tank Mountains seems especially stupid in light of what is happening with the housing industry and the big downturn in America's generational demographics. There will not be enough sustained customer demand to keep that fantasy development afloat. They might get some dumb home buyers to sign up and get things rolling. But any positive gains would fall apart going into the 2030's. And that's assuming we don't have a housing industry crisis within the next couple or so years. Current conditions (extreme prices, high interest rates, record levels of personal debt) make a severe market downtown an ever more likely thing.

By the time I-11 could be completed way out there the resulting freeway would probably be functionally worthless.

Housing markets only suffer catastrophes in situations where some economic emergency like 2008 hits suddenly. The market will respond rationally to the demographic changes because they're gradual. So I think the most likely outcome is that most of the dreamt of housing developments will not get built.

But there's still a good reason to build I-11 down to I-10, and possibly along AZ-85, which is to bypass Phoenix for all the through traffic, especially trucks. If land acquisition remains cheap north of I-10, and AZ-85 can be easily upgraded, that could be a viable project even without huge housing developments. It would be just four lanes, but then  so are most of the interstates out of the urban areas.

[Scott5114]

Where is K12?

Until it was decommissioned in 1987, Shawnee Mission Parkway, Merriam Lane, and Southwest Boulevard, but that's not important right now.

[Bobby5280]

That depends on what color Google is showing on the maps for I-10 vs US-60. If you're theory about Buckeye development failing comes true, then 15 years from now people may very well take I-10 to get to I-11 to avoid the US-60 bottlenecks.

There isn't a whole lot of development along US-60 going NW outside the 303 loop. There's over 30 at-grade intersections along US-60 between the AZ-303 loop and the AZ-74 intersection. But only 3 intersections have traffic signal lights, including one at 303. The highway is mostly free-flowing. That's going to make it a faster way to drive from Phoenix to Las Vegas no matter what happens out past Buckeye.

I think it's pretty funny for people to "use the force" and trust Google Maps to guide them. But I think even Google is probably going to tell motorists to stick with US-60 for those trips. Even if all those proposed developments by Buckeye were successful it would probably load I-11 out there with a bunch of local traffic trying to make it to/from I-10. In the end people driving from Phoenix to Las Vegas would have to stick with US-60 to avoid the mess out West.

Housing markets only suffer catastrophes in situations where some economic emergency like 2008 hits suddenly. The market will respond rationally to the demographic changes because they're gradual. So I think the most likely outcome is that most of the dreamt of housing developments will not get built.

The global financial crisis of 2008 was caused directly by the American housing market. There was nothing rational about that market back then. And there is nothing rational about America's housing market now. In most markets across the nation home prices have no relation at all to local income levels. The same is true for rent prices. Private equity firms and other institutional buyers are attempting to be smarter this time around in how they price gouge the living shit out of people, creating "forced scarcity" and doing all sorts of other tricks to kick the can down the road. Still, in the end, the damned bill comes due. There's no getting around it.

Even if the people controlling the housing market (elected lawmakers, Wall Street, etc) can manage to game things in the short term they're creating ever more long term damage. That's coming in the form of young adults being forced to "opt out" of the so-called American dream of getting married, buying a house and raising children. That concept is rapidly becoming a lifestyle choice affordable only for rich people. Parenthood for anyone else is a gateway into poverty. Fewer children translates into fewer customers in the future. It also means fewer workers, fewer people who can staff our military, etc. It means a shrinking tax base. That's gonna be bad for any older folks expecting to draw benefits from Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. It's also very bad for private pensions (many of which are currently way under-funded or borderline insolvent).

[The Ghostbuster]

I wouldn't be too upset if Interstate 11 ended at Interstate 40 in Kingman permanently. It will probably take quite a while to upgrade existing 93 between Exits 2 and 67, and upgrading 93 to Interstate Standards between Interstate 40 and US 60 in Wickenburg may turn out to be overkill (a connector between Interstate 10 and US 60 may suffice, perhaps connecting with the northern terminus of AZ 85).

[Bobby5280]

The Las Vegas metro has 2.2 million residents. The Phoenix metro has 4.8 million residents. The two are about 250 miles apart. I think that should be good enough to justify a direct Interstate quality link between both metros.

[Sub-Urbanite]

The Las Vegas metro has 2.2 million residents. The Phoenix metro has 4.8 million residents. The two are about 250 miles apart. I think that should be good enough to justify a direct Interstate quality link between both metros.

If we were building the Eisenhower system from scratch today, this would be included. And that, to me, ends the debate.

[KeithE4Phx]

The Las Vegas metro has 2.2 million residents. The Phoenix metro has 4.8 million residents. The two are about 250 miles apart. I think that should be good enough to justify a direct Interstate quality link between both metros.

From Phoenix, it's about the same distance (350 miles) to both Las Vegas and Los Angeles.  From Phoenix to Vegas, there just isn't enough traffic to justify a full Interstate south of I-40.  A good quality 4-lane highway is a must, but don't hold your breath waiting for the 30-mile stretch NW of Wickenburg to get built anytime soon.  That's the last bottleneck/death trap.

[KeithE4Phx]

The Las Vegas metro has 2.2 million residents. The Phoenix metro has 4.8 million residents. The two are about 250 miles apart. I think that should be good enough to justify a direct Interstate quality link between both metros.

If we were building the Eisenhower system from scratch today, this would be included. And that, to me, ends the debate.

We're not starting over.  Your point is moot.

At the time the Interstates were being built in the west (1960s-80s), Vegas had a metro population (Clark County) of about 127K in 1960, rising to just under 750K in 1990. 

Metro Phoenix was much larger (663K to 2.1M in that time frame), but there have always been flights between the two cities.  Besides, getting freeways in Phoenix built in that era was as big a fight then as it is in Tucson today.  A direct highway (AZ, later US 93) didn't even exist until after the war.  It was two-lane and only partially paved for the first few years.

[Bobby5280]

From Phoenix, it's about the same distance (350 miles) to both Las Vegas and Los Angeles.

It's 302 miles from downtown Phoenix to downtown Las Vegas. It's just 232 miles from the interchange with AZ-303 & US-60 to the AZ/NV border by Hoover Dam (and terminus of I-11). Add another 20 or so miles on I-11 to get to the I-11/I-215 interchange.

As the Vegas region continues to grow I'd expect AADT counts on US-93 in Arizona to rise. In the meantime I don't mind if the South terminus of I-11 stays stuck at Kingman. I still think the routing choices in the Phoenix region are severely compromised. And the stuff proposed near Tucson and South is pure fantasy. 20 years from now a bunch of those proposals will end up in the dust bin. Meanwhile, US-93 at least needs to be 4-lane divided the whole way between I-40 and the Phoenix metro. The retention of those 2-lane segments is just plain malpractice and negligence.

[Rothman]

From Phoenix, it's about the same distance (350 miles) to both Las Vegas and Los Angeles.

It's 302 miles from downtown Phoenix to downtown Las Vegas. It's just 232 miles from the interchange with AZ-303 & US-60 to the AZ/NV border by Hoover Dam (and terminus of I-11). Add another 20 or so miles on I-11 to get to the I-11/I-215 interchange.

As the Vegas region continues to grow I'd expect AADT counts on US-93 in Arizona to rise. In the meantime I don't mind if the South terminus of I-11 stays stuck at Kingman. I still think the routing choices in the Phoenix region are severely compromised. And the stuff proposed near Tucson and South is pure fantasy. 20 years from now a bunch of those proposals will end up in the dust bin. Meanwhile, US-93 at least needs to be 4-lane divided the whole way between I-40 and the Phoenix metro. The retention of those 2-lane segments is just plain malpractice and negligence.

How are you determining the need, though?  I'm not convinced US 93 is a clogged arterial.

[Max Rockatansky]

Is it really that hard to accept that two major cities just plain don't need a full Interstate-quality freeway between them?  This segment of US 93 we are discussing even has a ghost town called "Nothing" which this century boasted about being Arizona's smallest community. 

[Plutonic Panda]

Is it really that hard to accept that two major cities just plain don't need a full Interstate-quality freeway between them?  This segment of US 93 we are discussing even has a ghost town called "Nothing" which this century boasted about being Arizona's smallest community. 

Yes, it is. Arizona needs to get on the ball with making this road in interstate at least from Phoenix to the Nevada border.

[Max Rockatansky]

Is it really that hard to accept that two major cities just plain don't need a full Interstate-quality freeway between them?  This segment of US 93 we are discussing even has a ghost town called "Nothing" which this century boasted about being Arizona's smallest community. 

Yes, it is. Arizona needs to get on the ball with making this road in interstate at least from Phoenix to the Nevada border.

So basically "I think this is needed" is the primary argument the in-favor crowd is going with?