2021 county/metro census estimates

[golden eagle]

It's not the complete data, but the US Census Bureau overnight released some census estimates for the nation's counties, as well as metropolitan and micropolitan areas, as of July 2021. Los Angeles County is by far the most populated, but lost over 184K residents since the 2020 census. In fact, of the ten largest counties, only two (Maricopa, AZ and Riverside, CA) showed an increase. Even Harris County (Houston) and Dallas County in Texas lost population, while five counties in the state were in the top ten of numerical increases. While not in the top ten, San Francisco has lost over 58K people since 2020.

Nashville's metro area crossed the 2 million mark for the first time. St. George, UT is the fastest growing metro percentage-wise, while Dallas-Fort Worth has the largest numerical increase with over 97K.

More details here:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/population-estimates-counties-decrease.html

[hotdogPi]

Wondering why Middlesex County, MA is seeing such a decrease. COVID hit them relatively lightly regarding the death rate. (So did Suffolk County, but that can be explained as an urban → suburban shift.)

US: 1 in 341
Middlesex County: 1 in 409
Suffolk County: Also 1 in 409, by coincidence

Other notes:

• My 40-year predictions, where the northwest quadrant excluding the Bay Area, will become significantly more populated, is mostly accurate. However, I was expecting parts of the Dakotas to be included in this, but they aren't.
• Speaking of North Dakota, the ones in the western part of the state with huge growths from 2010-2020 are now seeing huge decreases.
• You can see a decrease in the Black Belt. COVID deaths are relatively even no matter where you are in the state in Mississippi and Alabama, so it's not due to COVID. (There's a correlation in Georgia.)
• Pretty much every city proper is losing population. Including Salt Lake City and Dallas, which are surrounded by extreme growth. And especially Nashville, which is the darkest purple surrounded by the darkest green – this isn't a blue city problem. (Nashville's COVID-19 death rate is also in line with the surrounding counties, so that doesn't explain it.)
• Regarding the last bullet point: Oklahoma City is somehow exempt from this huge loss, despite Scott5114 explaining everything wrong with Oklahoma.
• Kentucky outside the major metros is gaining?
• People are moving closer to the coast in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and to a lesser extent, Mississippi – watch out for hurricanes! At least in Mississippi, they've moved to the second closest to the ocean, not the ones touching the ocean itself.
• The Bay Area is dark purple despite being one of the least affected by COVID-19, so it's definitely becoming a problem to live there.
• What is this dark green spot in central Virginia? There's no major city there.

[JayhawkCO]

For Colorado, it somewhat goes against conventional wisdom. There were a lot of stories in the Denver Post about how people who could work remotely were moving up to the mountains, i.e. Summit (Frisco, Breckenridge, etc.), Eagle (Vail), and Pitkin (Aspen) counties. Overall those counties show up as a loss.

Overall, the trend is pretty clear though. People think the West is better, which it is.

[webny99]

Overall, the trend is pretty clear though. People think the West is better, which it is.

Maybe overall a better place to live, but if you want an affordable house in the suburbs, I would take the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest over the West 10 times out of 10. The houses and neighborhoods in the West and Southwest are generally much too compact for my liking. They should be more spread out because there's more open space, but instead they're usually crammed together uncomfortably.

[JayhawkCO]

Overall, the trend is pretty clear though. People think the West is better, which it is.

Maybe overall a better place to live, but if you want an affordable house in the suburbs, I would take the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest over the West 10 times out of 10. The houses and neighborhoods in the West and Southwest are generally much too compact for my liking. They should be more spread out because there's more open space, but instead they're usually crammed together uncomfortably.

Sure. I was just being a bit facetious. Affordability is not Colorado's strong point. Depending on the neighborhood though, there's decent space. You don't want anything built after 1985 or so though.

[Takumi]

What is this dark green spot in central Virginia? There's no major city there.

The southernmost two counties of that are Goochland and Powhatan, which have become Richmond exurbs. The eastern parts of those counties have become respective extensions of Short Pump and Midlothian growth. The trend in that spot in general seems to be distance commuting to Richmond or Charlottesville or Fredericksburg or Nova, and having a lower cost of living than places closer.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Cities with large universities that did not have full campuses when these numbers were taken was cited as one possible factor for population "decline", since those kids count as residents of their university town regardless of whether their legal address remains in their parents' town for Census purposes.

[thspfc]

Oklahoma City is somehow exempt from this huge loss, despite Scott5114 explaining everything wrong with Oklahoma.

Oddly, a rant on a road forum did not discourage masses of people from moving to Oklahoma.

[Scott5114]

There are good things about Oklahoma as well. And presumably the things I complain about are something somebody somewhere likes, or else they wouldn't be that way.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

There are good things about Oklahoma as well. And presumably the things I complain about are something somebody somewhere likes, or else they wouldn't be that way.

Every state and city does something well and not so well. No place is perfect.

[jeffandnicole]

For Colorado, it somewhat goes against conventional wisdom. There were a lot of stories in the Denver Post about how people who could work remotely were moving up to the mountains, i.e. Summit (Frisco, Breckenridge, etc.), Eagle (Vail), and Pitkin (Aspen) counties. Overall those counties show up as a loss.

Overall, the trend is pretty clear though. People think the West is better, which it is.

This is one of many things where the media tells part of the story, influences their readership something occurs, and they wind up being wrong more than right.

Can't say exactly what happened here, but let's say a couple moves into an existing house. The family of 5 that lived there is moving out. The media tells this wonderful tale of the couple finding their dream remote home and how many others are doing the same. Yet in this case, the net population change is -3 since the existing family isn't going to shack up with them.

In my state, everyone is always saying how everyone is moving out. People aren't abandoning their homes; they're selling them to someone else. The net population change is small in either direction.

[Scott5114]

There are good things about Oklahoma as well. And presumably the things I complain about are something somebody somewhere likes, or else they wouldn't be that way.

Sometimes the pros outweigh the cons, or the cons outweigh the pros, but the bottom line is no place is perfect and every place could do something better.

No place is perfect, but some are more perfect than others.

The nicest thing about Oklahoma is that it is affordable. You can still buy a house here on a middle-class salary. There are people who will come here just for that. But the reason why it's affordable is because there's so many dealbreakers for other people that the demand is low.

[kalvado]

For Colorado, it somewhat goes against conventional wisdom. There were a lot of stories in the Denver Post about how people who could work remotely were moving up to the mountains, i.e. Summit (Frisco, Breckenridge, etc.), Eagle (Vail), and Pitkin (Aspen) counties. Overall those counties show up as a loss.

Overall, the trend is pretty clear though. People think the West is better, which it is.

This is one of many things where the media tells part of the story, influences their readership something occurs, and they wind up being wrong more than right.

Can't say exactly what happened here, but let's say a couple moves into an existing house. The family of 5 that lived there is moving out. The media tells this wonderful tale of the couple finding their dream remote home and how many others are doing the same. Yet in this case, the net population change is -3 since the existing family isn't going to shack up with them.

In my state, everyone is always saying how everyone is moving out. People aren't abandoning their homes; they're selling them to someone else. The net population change is small in either direction.

These migration numbers are not too high at a first glance. But, from freshly published data, NY had more migration losses than births both in 2020 and 2021. It's not that you see babies born all over the place, but that is - obviously - one of major factors of population dynamics.

[frankenroad]

One of the things I found interesting were the "donut holes" - central county purple, surrounding counties green.  They were quite obvious for places like Nashville, Indianapolis, Columbus, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Minneapolis/St. Paul.

[bandit957]

A lot of this is because rural areas did a lot better at dealing with COVID.

[Rothman]

A lot of this is because rural areas did a lot better at dealing with COVID.

By what measure?

[bandit957]

A lot of this is because rural areas did a lot better at dealing with COVID.

By what measure?

They generally didn't lock down as severely as the cities, which often had a hard lockdown.

[Rothman]

A lot of this is because rural areas did a lot better at dealing with COVID.

By what measure?

They generally didn't lock down as severely as the cities, which often had a hard lockdown.

That's not a measure of how well they handled it.  I would look at case and death rates in rural areas before making your conclusion.

[Road Hog]

There are good things about Oklahoma as well. And presumably the things I complain about are something somebody somewhere likes, or else they wouldn't be that way.

Sometimes the pros outweigh the cons, or the cons outweigh the pros, but the bottom line is no place is perfect and every place could do something better.

No place is perfect, but some are more perfect than others.

The nicest thing about Oklahoma is that it is affordable. You can still buy a house here on a middle-class salary. There are people who will come here just for that. But the reason why it's affordable is because there's so many dealbreakers for other people that the demand is low.

From what I could tell, a lot of growth in Oklahoma is in far southern Red River counties that are starting to become commutable to growing population centers in North Texas like Collin and Denton Counties. I've expected some of this "echo growth" for some time.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Wondering why Middlesex County, MA is seeing such a decrease. COVID hit them relatively lightly regarding the death rate. (So did Suffolk County, but that can be explained as an urban → suburban shift.)

US: 1 in 341
Middlesex County: 1 in 409
Suffolk County: Also 1 in 409, by coincidence

Other notes:

• My 40-year predictions, where the northwest quadrant excluding the Bay Area, will become significantly more populated, is mostly accurate. However, I was expecting parts of the Dakotas to be included in this, but they aren't.
• Speaking of North Dakota, the ones in the western part of the state with huge growths from 2010-2020 are now seeing huge decreases.
• You can see a decrease in the Black Belt. COVID deaths are relatively even no matter where you are in the state in Mississippi and Alabama, so it's not due to COVID. (There's a correlation in Georgia.)
• Pretty much every city proper is losing population. Including Salt Lake City and Dallas, which are surrounded by extreme growth. And especially Nashville, which is the darkest purple surrounded by the darkest green – this isn't a blue city problem. (Nashville's COVID-19 death rate is also in line with the surrounding counties, so that doesn't explain it.)
• Regarding the last bullet point: Oklahoma City is somehow exempt from this huge loss, despite Scott5114 explaining everything wrong with Oklahoma.
• Kentucky outside the major metros is gaining?
• People are moving closer to the coast in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and to a lesser extent, Mississippi – watch out for hurricanes! At least in Mississippi, they've moved to the second closest to the ocean, not the ones touching the ocean itself.
• The Bay Area is dark purple despite being one of the least affected by COVID-19, so it's definitely becoming a problem to live there.
• What is this dark green spot in central Virginia? There's no major city there.

As a resident of Middlesex County, MA, I would guess that the decrease was due to pandemic-related migration to places with less population (a la the Cape and Berkshires), as well the work from home phenomenon meaning an exodus to less expensive places in general. Many folks have the types of jobs where remote work is at least possible, and we have an above-average rate of masking/physical distancing/vaccination. Not sure how much of thrse changes are temporary re the pandemic and how much is a longer-term shift to less-expensive areas.

[golden eagle]

Wondering why Middlesex County, MA is seeing such a decrease. COVID hit them relatively lightly regarding the death rate. (So did Suffolk County, but that can be explained as an urban → suburban shift.)

US: 1 in 341
Middlesex County: 1 in 409
Suffolk County: Also 1 in 409, by coincidence

Other notes:

• My 40-year predictions, where the northwest quadrant excluding the Bay Area, will become significantly more populated, is mostly accurate. However, I was expecting parts of the Dakotas to be included in this, but they aren't.
• Speaking of North Dakota, the ones in the western part of the state with huge growths from 2010-2020 are now seeing huge decreases.
• You can see a decrease in the Black Belt. COVID deaths are relatively even no matter where you are in the state in Mississippi and Alabama, so it's not due to COVID. (There's a correlation in Georgia.)
• Pretty much every city proper is losing population. Including Salt Lake City and Dallas, which are surrounded by extreme growth. And especially Nashville, which is the darkest purple surrounded by the darkest green – this isn't a blue city problem. (Nashville's COVID-19 death rate is also in line with the surrounding counties, so that doesn't explain it.)
• Regarding the last bullet point: Oklahoma City is somehow exempt from this huge loss, despite Scott5114 explaining everything wrong with Oklahoma.
• Kentucky outside the major metros is gaining?
• People are moving closer to the coast in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and to a lesser extent, Mississippi – watch out for hurricanes! At least in Mississippi, they've moved to the second closest to the ocean, not the ones touching the ocean itself.
• The Bay Area is dark purple despite being one of the least affected by COVID-19, so it's definitely becoming a problem to live there.
• What is this dark green spot in central Virginia? There's no major city there.

As a resident of Middlesex County, MA, I would guess that the decrease was due to pandemic-related migration to places with less population (a la the Cape and Berkshires), as well the work from home phenomenon meaning an exodus to less expensive places in general. Many folks have the types of jobs where remote work is at least possible, and we have an above-average rate of masking/physical distancing/vaccination. Not sure how much of thrse changes are temporary re the pandemic and how much is a longer-term shift to less-expensive areas.

I'm of the belief that when broadband internet access is more available in rural places and small towns, more people will move there.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Wondering why Middlesex County, MA is seeing such a decrease. COVID hit them relatively lightly regarding the death rate. (So did Suffolk County, but that can be explained as an urban → suburban shift.)

US: 1 in 341
Middlesex County: 1 in 409
Suffolk County: Also 1 in 409, by coincidence

Other notes:

• My 40-year predictions, where the northwest quadrant excluding the Bay Area, will become significantly more populated, is mostly accurate. However, I was expecting parts of the Dakotas to be included in this, but they aren't.
• Speaking of North Dakota, the ones in the western part of the state with huge growths from 2010-2020 are now seeing huge decreases.
• You can see a decrease in the Black Belt. COVID deaths are relatively even no matter where you are in the state in Mississippi and Alabama, so it's not due to COVID. (There's a correlation in Georgia.)
• Pretty much every city proper is losing population. Including Salt Lake City and Dallas, which are surrounded by extreme growth. And especially Nashville, which is the darkest purple surrounded by the darkest green – this isn't a blue city problem. (Nashville's COVID-19 death rate is also in line with the surrounding counties, so that doesn't explain it.)
• Regarding the last bullet point: Oklahoma City is somehow exempt from this huge loss, despite Scott5114 explaining everything wrong with Oklahoma.
• Kentucky outside the major metros is gaining?
• People are moving closer to the coast in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and to a lesser extent, Mississippi – watch out for hurricanes! At least in Mississippi, they've moved to the second closest to the ocean, not the ones touching the ocean itself.
• The Bay Area is dark purple despite being one of the least affected by COVID-19, so it's definitely becoming a problem to live there.
• What is this dark green spot in central Virginia? There's no major city there.

As a resident of Middlesex County, MA, I would guess that the decrease was due to pandemic-related migration to places with less population (a la the Cape and Berkshires), as well the work from home phenomenon meaning an exodus to less expensive places in general. Many folks have the types of jobs where remote work is at least possible, and we have an above-average rate of masking/physical distancing/vaccination. Not sure how much of thrse changes are temporary re the pandemic and how much is a longer-term shift to less-expensive areas.

I'm of the belief that when broadband internet access is more available in rural places and small towns, more people will move there.

Agreed, along with the longer-term trend of people leaving expensive cities/states (for example NY/CA/IL) for less expensive ones (i.e. FL/TX).

[Rothman]

Wondering why Middlesex County, MA is seeing such a decrease. COVID hit them relatively lightly regarding the death rate. (So did Suffolk County, but that can be explained as an urban → suburban shift.)

US: 1 in 341
Middlesex County: 1 in 409
Suffolk County: Also 1 in 409, by coincidence

Other notes:

• My 40-year predictions, where the northwest quadrant excluding the Bay Area, will become significantly more populated, is mostly accurate. However, I was expecting parts of the Dakotas to be included in this, but they aren't.
• Speaking of North Dakota, the ones in the western part of the state with huge growths from 2010-2020 are now seeing huge decreases.
• You can see a decrease in the Black Belt. COVID deaths are relatively even no matter where you are in the state in Mississippi and Alabama, so it's not due to COVID. (There's a correlation in Georgia.)
• Pretty much every city proper is losing population. Including Salt Lake City and Dallas, which are surrounded by extreme growth. And especially Nashville, which is the darkest purple surrounded by the darkest green – this isn't a blue city problem. (Nashville's COVID-19 death rate is also in line with the surrounding counties, so that doesn't explain it.)
• Regarding the last bullet point: Oklahoma City is somehow exempt from this huge loss, despite Scott5114 explaining everything wrong with Oklahoma.
• Kentucky outside the major metros is gaining?
• People are moving closer to the coast in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and to a lesser extent, Mississippi – watch out for hurricanes! At least in Mississippi, they've moved to the second closest to the ocean, not the ones touching the ocean itself.
• The Bay Area is dark purple despite being one of the least affected by COVID-19, so it's definitely becoming a problem to live there.
• What is this dark green spot in central Virginia? There's no major city there.

As a resident of Middlesex County, MA, I would guess that the decrease was due to pandemic-related migration to places with less population (a la the Cape and Berkshires), as well the work from home phenomenon meaning an exodus to less expensive places in general. Many folks have the types of jobs where remote work is at least possible, and we have an above-average rate of masking/physical distancing/vaccination. Not sure how much of thrse changes are temporary re the pandemic and how much is a longer-term shift to less-expensive areas.

I'm of the belief that when broadband internet access is more available in rural places and small towns, more people will move there.

Agreed, along with the longer-term trend of people leaving expensive cities/states (for example NY/CA/IL) for less expensive ones (i.e. FL/TX).

What throws these simplistic views out of whack is what occurred in NY during the pandemic:  NYC people wreaking havoc on upstate NY real estate markets.  Have no idea why they bolted for the likes of Albany and Rochester instead of "cheaper states."

[Ted$8roadFan]

Wondering why Middlesex County, MA is seeing such a decrease. COVID hit them relatively lightly regarding the death rate. (So did Suffolk County, but that can be explained as an urban → suburban shift.)

US: 1 in 341
Middlesex County: 1 in 409
Suffolk County: Also 1 in 409, by coincidence

Other notes:

• My 40-year predictions, where the northwest quadrant excluding the Bay Area, will become significantly more populated, is mostly accurate. However, I was expecting parts of the Dakotas to be included in this, but they aren't.
• Speaking of North Dakota, the ones in the western part of the state with huge growths from 2010-2020 are now seeing huge decreases.
• You can see a decrease in the Black Belt. COVID deaths are relatively even no matter where you are in the state in Mississippi and Alabama, so it's not due to COVID. (There's a correlation in Georgia.)
• Pretty much every city proper is losing population. Including Salt Lake City and Dallas, which are surrounded by extreme growth. And especially Nashville, which is the darkest purple surrounded by the darkest green – this isn't a blue city problem. (Nashville's COVID-19 death rate is also in line with the surrounding counties, so that doesn't explain it.)
• Regarding the last bullet point: Oklahoma City is somehow exempt from this huge loss, despite Scott5114 explaining everything wrong with Oklahoma.
• Kentucky outside the major metros is gaining?
• People are moving closer to the coast in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and to a lesser extent, Mississippi – watch out for hurricanes! At least in Mississippi, they've moved to the second closest to the ocean, not the ones touching the ocean itself.
• The Bay Area is dark purple despite being one of the least affected by COVID-19, so it's definitely becoming a problem to live there.
• What is this dark green spot in central Virginia? There's no major city there.

As a resident of Middlesex County, MA, I would guess that the decrease was due to pandemic-related migration to places with less population (a la the Cape and Berkshires), as well the work from home phenomenon meaning an exodus to less expensive places in general. Many folks have the types of jobs where remote work is at least possible, and we have an above-average rate of masking/physical distancing/vaccination. Not sure how much of thrse changes are temporary re the pandemic and how much is a longer-term shift to less-expensive areas.

I'm of the belief that when broadband internet access is more available in rural places and small towns, more people will move there.

Agreed, along with the longer-term trend of people leaving expensive cities/states (for example NY/CA/IL) for less expensive ones (i.e. FL/TX).

What throws these simplistic views out of whack is what occurred in NY during the pandemic:  NYC people wreaking havoc on upstate NY real estate markets.  Have no idea why they bolted for the likes of Albany and Rochester instead of "cheaper states."

Last I checked, there are 49 other states besides New York.

Cheap is a relative term. It would be a very good thing if some of the folks stayed in upstate.

Also, didn't New York lose a Congressional seat due to results the 2020 Census? So dud Illinois and California (for the first time ever). Meanwhile Florida and North Carolina are getting one new congressional seat, and Texas is gaining 2. It's a long-term trend.

In fairness, we have no idea right now how (if) the pandemic will change our live/work habits in the long term. We'll see what happens.