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Northern Virginia HOT Lanes

Started by mtantillo, August 14, 2012, 11:02:35 PM

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cpzilliacus

Quote from: mtantillo on October 02, 2013, 10:35:23 AM
The last thing you would ever want to do is push more traffic onto I-66 via an extra Beltway lane.  66 is bad enough.  The ramp is long enough where 66 backups onto 495 are less common than they used to be. 

IMO, the first thing I would like to do with I-66 between U.S. 50 and Fair Oaks and I-495 is widen it, or to impose pricing on all lanes and then widen it with the resulting revenue.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.


1995hoo

Quote from: cpzilliacus on October 02, 2013, 12:46:30 PM
Quote from: mtantillo on October 02, 2013, 10:35:23 AM
The last thing you would ever want to do is push more traffic onto I-66 via an extra Beltway lane.  66 is bad enough.  The ramp is long enough where 66 backups onto 495 are less common than they used to be. 

IMO, the first thing I would like to do with I-66 between U.S. 50 and Fair Oaks and I-495 is widen it, or to impose pricing on all lanes and then widen it with the resulting revenue.

I'd like to see some kind of two-lane express roadway in each direction with no exits between the Beltway and at least Fair Oaks. Not necessarily an HOV or HO/T roadway, either, just some sort of express roadway that would segregate the local and longer-distance traffic (similar, I suppose, to the Wilson Bridge or I-270 but without any opportunity for traffic to exit to or from the express roadway). If the system were to extend further west I would allow for a crossover system, perhaps similar to Toronto's Basketweave, to allow for access to and from the Fairfax County Parkway.

Of course, I recognize the massive impracticality of that due to the space limitations and the even more astronomical cost of double-decking the highway.
"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

cpzilliacus

Quote from: 1995hoo on October 02, 2013, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: cpzilliacus on October 02, 2013, 12:46:30 PM
Quote from: mtantillo on October 02, 2013, 10:35:23 AM
The last thing you would ever want to do is push more traffic onto I-66 via an extra Beltway lane.  66 is bad enough.  The ramp is long enough where 66 backups onto 495 are less common than they used to be. 

IMO, the first thing I would like to do with I-66 between U.S. 50 and Fair Oaks and I-495 is widen it, or to impose pricing on all lanes and then widen it with the resulting revenue.

I'd like to see some kind of two-lane express roadway in each direction with no exits between the Beltway and at least Fair Oaks. Not necessarily an HOV or HO/T roadway, either, just some sort of express roadway that would segregate the local and longer-distance traffic (similar, I suppose, to the Wilson Bridge or I-270 but without any opportunity for traffic to exit to or from the express roadway). If the system were to extend further west I would allow for a crossover system, perhaps similar to Toronto's Basketweave, to allow for access to and from the Fairfax County Parkway.

That would be an excellent idea.  I think the traffic is there to support such an improvement, even if it were tolled.

Quote from: 1995hoo on October 02, 2013, 12:54:48 PM
Of course, I recognize the massive impracticality of that due to the space limitations and the even more astronomical cost of double-decking the highway.

Yeah, the right-of-way constraints on  I-66 in Fairfax County between U.S. 50 at Fair Oaks and I-495 are pretty bad.  And a median viaduct similar to the one on I-110 (Harbor Freeway) in Los Angeles County is big money, made even more complex by the presence of the Orange Line in the median.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

cpzilliacus

TOLLROADSnews: Capital beltway toll express lanes traffic and revenue grows in 3rd quarter of operation but growth slower

Quote2013-10-09: Transurban's US showpiece 495 Express Lanes showed continued growth in traffic and revenue in their third quarter of operation, but a quiet summer (July and most of August) slowed growth of patronage compared to the June quarter's big surge on the slow first full quarter of operation.

QuoteAverage workday traffic rose in the September to 37.6k from 35.0K in the June quarter and 26.3k in the March quarter. On  this trajectory traffic in the last quarter could be around 41k which would make a whole year's 35k. The Stantec investment-grade traffic and revenue forecast dated February 2007 projected the first full year would produce 66k average workday trips (p5 Table 1), so it would turn out about half that - a shortfall of 47% on the guess of 41k for the final quarter of this year.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

froggie

As I recall, the MIS that was done about 10 years ago suggested a 2-lane, barrier-separated, reversible HOV facility on 66 between the Beltway and at least Fair Oaks (I believe it went further west).

It should also be noted that, per the origin-destination study that was part of the Tier 1 Draft EIS earlier this year, over half the traffic that's on I-66 at the Beltway either got on from or is exiting to Nutley, 123, or 50/Fair Oaks, with half of that (so a quarter overall) to/from Nutley St alone.  Which such a reversible roadway with no ramps between Fair Oaks and the Beltway would help those coming from further west, it's of limited benefit to half of the I-66 traffic at the Beltway.

Farther west, there are also large volumes of traffic that enter EB/exit WB at 28 and exit EB/enter WB at Fairfax County Pkwy.

I believe we've also discussed this ad nauseum in another thread.

cpzilliacus

Quote from: froggie on October 11, 2013, 02:29:23 AM
As I recall, the MIS that was done about 10 years ago suggested a 2-lane, barrier-separated, reversible HOV facility on 66 between the Beltway and at least Fair Oaks (I believe it went further west).

I believe that work was done with the discredited "Dulles" travel demand forecasting model - the only project it was ever used on except for Dulles Rail.

Still, that would be a huge improvement over what is there now - but would require some pretty expensive ramps to connect to the the HOV/Toll lanes at I-495. 

Quote from: froggie on October 11, 2013, 02:29:23 AM
It should also be noted that, per the origin-destination study that was part of the Tier 1 Draft EIS earlier this year, over half the traffic that's on I-66 at the Beltway either got on from or is exiting to Nutley, 123, or 50/Fair Oaks, with half of that (so a quarter overall) to/from Nutley St alone.  Which such a reversible roadway with no ramps between Fair Oaks and the Beltway would help those coming from further west, it's of limited benefit to half of the I-66 traffic at the Beltway.

Removing traffic from the overcrowded conventional lanes would still help everyone using that corridor.

Quote from: froggie on October 11, 2013, 02:29:23 AM
Farther west, there are also large volumes of traffic that enter EB/exit WB at 28 and exit EB/enter WB at Fairfax County Pkwy.

And that is likely where there will be more growth in the future.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

cpzilliacus

TOLLROADSnews: 495 Express Lanes went to financing in 2010 with boom-time forecasts from mid-decade - huge $-shortfall now

QuoteThe 495 Express Lanes went to the capital markets at the end of 2010 using the same traffic and revenue forecasting done four and five years earlier in the boom times of 2005 and 2006. Seeking $589m of 2047 senior lien 35-year bonds in mid-December 2010 we now know they based their financial plan on the same Stantec traffic and revenue forecasts published February 2007 and conducted in the pre-recession years 2005 and 2006.

QuoteThe end-2010 Offering Statement for the bonds simply takes the Stantec forecasts and inflates the revenue numbers from 2004-$s to nominal or current year $s. This made their forecast for toll revenue for 2013 $54.7m.

QuoteWe reported from the Stantec Investment Grade Traffic and Revenue forecast in 2007 toll revenue in the first year of operation as $46.1m. Those were 2004-$s.

QuoteThe outlines of the financial plan for the 495 Express Lanes at financial close are shown in a one page Debt Service Coverage Table (S-17) 2013 to 2047.

QuoteWe've summarized some of the main numbers given through 2020 in the table nearby.

QuoteTolls for 2013 were put at $54.7m, other revenues such as penalty payments $5.5m for total revenue of $60.2m. Against that are operating expenses put at $31.3m for an operating surplus of $28.8m. Debt service is $23m so there's a small cash flow of $5.9m projected to lenders.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

cpzilliacus

Washington Post's Dr. Gridlock: I-95 HOT lanes will be a new experience with tolling for some

QuoteThe 95 Express Lanes project, a 29-mile road work zone in Northern Virginia, is half done and on schedule to be finished by late 2014, Virginia officials say. The high-occupancy toll lanes in the middle of Interstate 95 should open to traffic in early 2015.

QuoteI've made a distinction in previous postings between tolling new lanes, like the HOT lanes the Capital Beltway, and tolling existing lanes – the sort of thing that Robert Poole of the Reason Foundation has proposed to finance the rebuilding and upgrading of our entire Interstate system. Drivers hate to pay tolls, but they're more accepting of tolls if it's for something new, an element that Poole takes into account in his proposal.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

cpzilliacus

WTOP Radio: High tolls hit some express lane motorists by surprise

QuoteALEXANDRIA, Va. - It's been a question since the 495 Express Lanes were first proposed on the Beltway in Virginia: How much will people be willing to pay to save time?

QuoteWednesday morning put that question to the test.

QuoteThe rain made the morning commute along the Capital Beltway slow and dreary. For many drivers, the faster ride on the Express Lanes may have looked enticing -- until they saw the toll rate.
QuoteAlexandria resident Brian Downey tweeted his surprise at the $9.50 toll.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

1995hoo

It says he saw the $9.50 toll and decided not to use the lanes. That seems to indicate the system is working exactly the way it's supposed to work.
"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

cpzilliacus

Quote from: 1995hoo on October 30, 2013, 03:50:12 PM
It says he saw the $9.50 toll and decided not to use the lanes. That seems to indicate the system is working exactly the way it's supposed to work.

Agreed.  The whole point of these lanes is to keep them running at 45 MPH or better, no matter what happens in the adjacent non-managed lanes.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

NJRoadfan

The question is, were there any cars in the lanes or was it a ghost town?

1995hoo

#362
Quote from: NJRoadfan on October 30, 2013, 04:49:25 PM
The question is, were there any cars in the lanes or was it a ghost town?

Beats me. I didn't have to go that way this morning. But remember the cited figure was the toll to drive the entire distance. If you exit at an earlier point, the toll will be lower, possibly by a significant amount. I believe I heard on the radio in my semi-groggy state after waking up this morning that there was a serious accident in the Beltway's general-purpose lanes near the Dulles exit, which is a mile or so south of the Express Lanes' northern end. That means the main incentive to use the lanes would be for people at the northern end heading to Maryland or the GW Parkway–they'd want to bypass the accident. So if you were driving from, say, Springfield to Merrifield (US-29), the toll might conceivably be a lot lower than the $9.50 if there's less likelihood of the lanes being congested in that area (although, from what I found on their website just now, that was not the case at 8:00 this morning).

The thing that is difficult for people in the DC area to understand about those lanes is that the system is supposed to ensure they're NOT congested (as cpzilliacus notes). I think it's quite understandable why people see the lanes flowing freely and assume that means "nobody's using them" or that "not enough" people are using them. We're conditioned to see free-flowing roads in a busy metropolitan area as being under-utilized, especially when the adjacent "free" Beltway lanes are often at a near standstill. But the variable-rate toll system is supposed to keep the Express Lanes moving. By raising the toll, they price out people who aren't willing to pay, and in turn other people who are willing to pay (or who meet the HOV requirements) get a faster ride.

Don't know whether I've posted it previously, but here was my video from a Monday morning in July. Traffic out in the "free" lanes was a lot lighter then compared to what's typical in October.

"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

cpzilliacus

Quote from: NJRoadfan on October 30, 2013, 04:49:25 PM
The question is, were there any cars in the lanes or was it a ghost town?

I would assume, given that the system is heavily instrumented and monitored, that if the toll was that high, there was plenty of traffic in them.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

Mapmikey

My own casual observation has been that when the toll in the afternoons SB is between $4.50-5.50, it is still pretty wide open in the HOT lanes and 65 mph is achievable.

I have not witnessed a toll over $7 so I have no observations about the volume of the HOT lanes at that point.

It appears to me the toll rises at the least little addition to traffic on the HOT lanes.  My own conspiracy theory is that if the toll is low, drivers think the regular lanes must be free-flowing (or nearly so) and won't use the lanes, so the tolls rise quickly giving people the thought that the regular lanes must have problems so they feel the need to use the toll lanes which are now at higher rates.

But I have definitely seen the toll in the $5 range when the regular lanes were still pretty good throughout.

Another thing to try to watch for this holiday season...suppose lots of people use the toll lanes to get to the Tyson's exits making the HOT lanes crowded just around Tysons.  Will that drive the full-length toll up anyway?

Mapmikey

jeffandnicole

Quote from: 1995hoo on October 30, 2013, 05:24:09 PM
The thing that is difficult for people in the DC area to understand about those lanes is that the system is supposed to ensure they're NOT congested (as cpzilliacus notes). I think it's quite understandable why people see the lanes flowing freely and assume that means "nobody's using them" or that "not enough" people are using them.

EZ Pass went thru the same growing pains (and some people still think that way as well).  Motorists would be sitting in the cash lanes, look at the 'empty' EZ Pass lanes, and wonder why no one uses them.  Some of these people think that the EZ Pass lane lines should be just as long as those paying cash.

cpzilliacus

Dr. Gridlock of the Washington Post: Some drivers still uncomfortable with year-old HOT lanes

QuoteWhile the Virginia government is responsible for the type of tolling system used on the express lanes, the Virginia Department of Transportation doesn't set the tolls. The tolls are set by Transurban, the private company that operates the lanes under a long-term lease with Virginia. The toll system was set up to do two basic things: allow the private consortium of the Transurban and Fluor companies to get a return on their investment in building and operating the lanes, and regulate the flow of traffic onto the lanes to avoid congestion, making the trip in the tolled lanes more reliable than the trip in the regular lanes.

Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

cpzilliacus

Quote from: Mapmikey on October 31, 2013, 07:41:28 AM
I have not witnessed a toll over $7 so I have no observations about the volume of the HOT lanes at that point.

I have seen them over $7 once - on a September afternoon near Tysons Corner to head south. The weather was bad, and the "free" lanes were at a near-standstill. 

I would gladly have paid $7 or $9 to avoid that mess (though I was not going that way at the time).
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

cpzilliacus

#368
Washington Post's Dr. Gridlock: Year-old Beltway express lanes sell time to D.C. area customers beset by congestion

QuoteAdam Epling, who lives near Manassas and commutes to Tysons Corner, is the type of customer that operators of the Capital Beltway express lanes envisioned in their business plan for a highway.

QuoteThey're selling time, and he's buying.

QuoteBefore the express lanes opened, Epling said, his travel time could be as much as 90 minutes each way on the 46-mile round trip. Most days, taking Interstate 66 to the Beltway was out of the question because of congestion.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

cpzilliacus

WTOP Radio: One year later: 495 Express Lane debate is between saving time and money

QuoteThis weekend marks one year since the 495 Express Lanes opened, but drivers still struggle with whether a consistently fast commute -- even during rush hour -- is worth the price.

QuoteThroughout the last year, tolls have ranged from $0.25 to $9.75. Back on Oct. 30, tolls on the 495 Express Lanes climbed to $9.50. Tolls like those have some drivers questioning how high is too high? Is there a price where saving time on a commute is no longer worth it?

Quote"Even at $4 or $5 one way is pricey. $9.50 is way too much. In a tight economy people are strapped. It's just not a necessity. I would rather wait a few minutes," says Pete Harris of Reston, Va. who referred to them as "Lexus Lanes."

QuoteThe term is popular among opponents of toll lanes to point out that the prices allow the wealthy to have a faster commute, leaving normal everyday workers behind in traffic.

QuoteBut even Tracey Stapleton of Falls Church, Va., who says she loves the express lanes and uses them frequently, admits her cap is well below $9.50 or $9.75.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

Mapmikey

Both Wed and Thur this week the first VMS showing toll rates on the outer loop near VA 193 were stuck on the cheapest off-peak rates while the next two showed the normal rush hour rates...

Incidentally, when the 95 HOT lanes are opened in a year or so, I assume the price for me to use both the 495 HOT lanes and the 95 HOT lanes will run $10-15 total.  And if it saves me 1/2 hour every afternoon I will probably do it.  Although really the beltway hasn't been that bad since the 495 Hot lanes were opened on most days so maybe I'll only need to use the 95 Hot lanes...

Mapmikey 

ARMOURERERIC

Of I was still living in DC and making the kind of $$ I made in the late 1980's, I would be willing to pay, in $$'s adjusted from 1989, about $7 per hour saved in driving time.  I would suspect that even at that rate, I would see a noticeable reduction in fuel consumption.

1995hoo

Sometimes driving in the Beltway HO/T lanes feels like being on your own private roadway. Video from a trip to Fair Oaks this past Monday morning:

"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

cpzilliacus

#373
Quote from: 1995hoo on December 26, 2013, 11:29:25 AM
Sometimes driving in the Beltway HO/T lanes feels like being on your own private roadway. Video from a trip to Fair Oaks this past Monday morning:

Hoo, this highlights the reason for the HOV/Toll lanes perfectly

Especially when the weather is rainy enough to slow conventional traffic, the $2.40 is well worth the price.

Seemed to me that the conventional (non-managed) lanes picked up in speed after Va. 650 (Gallows Road), but I could not tell if there was an incident there from your video.  Did you notice anything there?

Thank you for sharing.
Opinions expressed here on AAROADS are strictly personal and mine alone, and do not reflect policies or positions of MWCOG, NCRTPB or their member federal, state, county and municipal governments or any other agency.

1995hoo

I didn't notice anything in particular. The radio (which is what the Chipmunks-type noise was) said something about an incident out there, but I didn't see anything. On a rainy day you never know.

I was in DC earlier today and on my way home I noted that there are signs in place (partially covered) for the new 95 Express Lanes in the area just north of the Duke Street interchange. Interestingly, one of the new signs is a Clearview copy of the old sign for the Turkeycock ramp, complete with the I-95/I-495 shields, with the only differences (other than Clearview) being (a) the "EXPRESS LANES ONLY" auxiliary plaque is no longer being used and (b) there is now a poorly-covered black-on-yellow "LAST EXIT BEFORE TOLL" banner at the bottom. I found point (b) interesting because technically it's not entirely accurate given the "HOV-or-toll" nature of what they're building there. I'm not sure there's a clearer way to phrase it, though.
"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.



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