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What City Ranks Number 10 Really?

Started by roadman65, November 14, 2024, 05:38:40 PM

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roadman65

I've been seeing many websites saying three different cities are the tenth most populous US city.

One source reveals Jacksonville, FL.  Another San Jose, CA. Than a third reveals Austin, TX to be the tenth spot.

However all websites admit in one way that those three cities are 10-11-12 in various orders.
Every day is a winding road, you just got to get used to it.

Sheryl Crowe


Scott5114

The official 2020 census lists San Jose as the 10th largest city. Anything else is someone guessing at what it might be.
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Bruce

The 10th largest metropolitan statistical area in the U.S. as of the 2020 Census is Boston (4.9 million). Phoenix has surpassed it to take 10th in the 2023 estimates after they hit 5 million.

The 10th largest combined statistical area in the U.S. as of the 2020 Census and 2023 estimate is Atlanta.

The 10th largest population within city limits as of the 2020 Census is San Jose (1,013,240). As of the 2023 estimate, Jacksonville (985,843) is in 10th, ahead of Austin; San Jose had dropped down to 13th.

Some websites are using the 2020 Census for city populations or metro area populations (MSA and CSA can also be a factor); some might be using more recent estimates. Don't trust anything that doesn't cite their sources (as with most things online). I find using just the city population to be pointless when comparing places across the nation; the metropolitan areas are usually more sensible because city boundaries can be arbitrarily small (as is the case on the West Coast) or too large (Columbus, Jacksonville, San Antonio). But even then, the MSA might be missing areas (such as Kitsap County not being included in the Seattle MSA).
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Scott5114

CSAs can be kind of weird, too—the one including Las Vegas gloms Pahrump onto it. While, yeah, it's the one major-ish Southern Nevada town that isn't in Clark County, it's also on the other side of a mountain pass, such that I doubt that most people in Pahrump actually come to Las Vegas very often.
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PNWRoadgeek

Quote from: Scott5114 on November 14, 2024, 08:43:14 PMCSAs can be kind of weird, too—the one including Las Vegas gloms Pahrump onto it. While, yeah, it's the one major-ish Southern Nevada town that isn't in Clark County, it's also on the other side of a mountain pass, such that I doubt that most people in Pahrump actually come to Las Vegas very often.
When I first heard that there was a town in Nevada called Pahrump, this was my reaction:
 :rofl:

In all seriousness though, I think it's interesting that CSAs go by county and not by the general surrounding area. I guess it does make organizing metro areas easier though, so I wouldn't argue against it.
Applying for new Grand Alan.

Scott5114

Quote from: PNWRoadgeek on November 14, 2024, 09:05:25 PMWhen I first heard that there was a town in Nevada called Pahrump, this was my reaction:
 :rofl:

Making it worse:
 - It is the closest town to Las Vegas with legal prostitution
 - They insist on putting the emphasis on the 2nd syllable (it's pah-RUMP, not PAH-rump)
 - They have a casino called the Pahrump Nugget.
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PNWRoadgeek

Quote from: Scott5114 on November 14, 2024, 09:08:59 PMMaking it worse:
 - It is the closest town to Las Vegas with legal prostitution
 - They insist on putting the emphasis on the 2nd syllable (it's pah-RUMP, not PAH-rump)
 - They have a casino called the Pahrump Nugget.
Ah, Pahrump seems like quite an interesting place, doesn't it? I've never been to Pahrump, so I'm not an expert on what typically goes on there, especially whatever that Pahrump Nugget place is. I assume it's a casino considering the Golden Nugget has a similar name? I don't know.
Applying for new Grand Alan.

Scott5114

Quote from: PNWRoadgeek on November 14, 2024, 10:13:55 PMI've never been to Pahrump, so I'm not an expert on what typically goes on there...

My favorite Pahrump story is that they once had two people running for a justice of peace office, campaigning that they knew the justice system better because they had been arrested more times than their opponent. There was also that time they elected a dead pimp to represent them in the State Assembly. There also used to be a national radio show broadcast from there about paranormal activities.

I've been there once since I moved to Nevada and I think that's probably enough for the time being.
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PNWRoadgeek

Quote from: Scott5114 on November 14, 2024, 10:42:47 PMMy favorite Pahrump story is that they once had two people running for a justice of peace office, campaigning that they knew the justice system better because they had been arrested more times than their opponent. There was also that time they elected a dead pimp to represent them in the State Assembly. There also used to be a national radio show broadcast from there about paranormal activities.

I've been there once since I moved to Nevada and I think that's probably enough for the time being.
This definitely gave me a good chuckle. I think once would be enough for me as well. Heck, even if I didn't visit Pahrump at all I wouldn't be missing out on anything good.
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ZLoth

A little over twenty years ago when I was doing support for a dial-up ISP, we also did after-hours support two-three other ISPs including a Las Vegas-based one which serviced the town of Pahrump. One of the user logins was "stuckinpahrump".

One of the challenges that I have with comparing city sizes is that they often rely on the city population and ignore the surrounding cities. This may have been true back in the 1940s-1950s, but things have changed. Consider these city population figures from 2020:
  • Houston, TX: 2,301,572
  • Dallas, TX: 1,304,379
  • Fort Worth, TX: 956,709
  • Las Vegas, NV: 641,903
  • Detroit, MI: 639,111
  • Sacramento, CA: 524,943
Right, but like I said, this ignore surrounding communities. DFW, for example, is considered one big metroplex. One way to look at it is to use the "Metropolitian Statistical Areas" (MSAs) as a comparison point which combines several contiguous counties into one area. Consider:
  • Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, TX MSA - 7,637,387 which includes Dallas (17.1%) and Fort Worth (12.5%)
  • Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands, TX MSA - 7,149,642 which includes Houston (32.2%)
  • Detroit–Warren–Dearborn, MI MSA - 4,392,041 which includes Detroit (14.6%)
  • Las Vegas–Henderson–North Las Vegas, NV MSA - 2,265,461 which includes Las Vegas (28.3%)
  • Sacramento–Roseville–Folsom, CA MSA - 2,397,382 which includes Sacramento (21.8%)
I would consider myself a resident of Dallas even though I actually live in one of the smaller cities and am just one mile from the Dallas County line. The congressional district which I live in goes into the city of Dallas. Much of what we consider the "Las Vegas Strip" actually in the unincorporated area of Paradise, NV, but even has a large "Welcome to Vegas" sign, and is where the Las Vegas Raiders play. The Dallas Cowboys actually play in Arlington, TX, and their practice facilities and headquarters are in Frisco, TX.

If you want to look at New York City's MSA, you'll find that it's population exceeds that of New York State and includes parts of New Jersey and Connecticut.

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Bruce

Quote from: PNWRoadgeek on November 14, 2024, 09:05:25 PMIn all seriousness though, I think it's interesting that CSAs go by county and not by the general surrounding area. I guess it does make organizing metro areas easier though, so I wouldn't argue against it.

The Census Bureau has separate classifications for urbanized areas that don't have to follow county lines, but these aren't used as much.
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DTComposer

MSAs have their own issues, though - they're built on:
• Counties, which are fixed, so can't adjust based on new growth patterns (other than adding other counties), and can contain large rural swaths,
• Commuting data, which was perhaps a useful metric in the days of single-income worker commuting to a dominant employment center, but in the days of multiple income earners (and often multiple jobs among those earners), multiple major employment centers in one area, and remote work, seems antiquated and ignores a multitude of other socio-economic factors (which are admittedly harder to track with hard data).

So in California, for example, you end up with situations like:
• Santa Barbara County, which has two urban areas (Santa Barbara and Santa Maria) at opposite ends of the county, 75 miles apart. Each are big enough to be their own metro area, but because of county lines, they're the same metro;
• San Francisco-Oakland and San Jose, which have unbroken urban development between them and are considered one region (the Bay Area) by media, academics, and socially, but because of commuting data, are broken into two metros;
• San Bernardino County, which has 2.4 million people, nearly all concentrated in the southwest corner of the county, but because the county itself is so huge, Needles, population 4,500, separated from San Bernardino by 210 miles of desert, is considered part of the metropolitan area.

Census-defined Urban Areas solve this problem to an extent (using contiguous built-up areas as a building block, ignoring governmental boundaries), but still uses commuting data (so San Francisco and San Jose are still separated), yet allows small geographic breaks to separate areas (so Antioch-Pittsburg, Concord-Walnut Creek, and Oakland are separate urban areas because of breaks of under 3 miles of hills).

TheStranger

One of the fundamental concepts at work here that is endlessly fascinating is:

- are certain metro/urban areas truly centered on one city, or can the focal point be actually amongst multiple cities?

Sure, that's obvious in region names (i.e. the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex) but the above posts also highlight how much trying to create a granular explanation of the above can be difficult if trying to use objective boundaries/measures.

i.e. Solano County: most of it is very much Bay Area (Vallejo, Benicia) but Dixon at its furthest east is pretty much Central Valley/almost metro Sacramento.

Growing up in the Bay I was born in SF but live in a nearby suburb and always tell people I'm from that suburb - identifying or self-identifying from San Francisco is something very specific to people in city limits for the most part, especially with the sporting and cultural rivalries/divide between them and Oakland.

Chris Sampang

Ted$8roadFan

Lots of media folk often mix up cities and their CSAs.

GaryV

Example of weird MSA-ness in Michigan:

Allegan County called the Holland MSA. Holland is in both Allegan County and Ottawa County. The main part of the city, including downtown, is in Ottawa County. But Ottawa County is in the Grand Rapids MSA.

epzik8

Quote from: DTComposer on November 14, 2024, 11:50:49 PMMSAs have their own issues, though - they're built on:
• Counties, which are fixed, so can't adjust based on new growth patterns (other than adding other counties), and can contain large rural swaths,
• Commuting data, which was perhaps a useful metric in the days of single-income worker commuting to a dominant employment center, but in the days of multiple income earners (and often multiple jobs among those earners), multiple major employment centers in one area, and remote work, seems antiquated and ignores a multitude of other socio-economic factors (which are admittedly harder to track with hard data).

So in California, for example, you end up with situations like:
• Santa Barbara County, which has two urban areas (Santa Barbara and Santa Maria) at opposite ends of the county, 75 miles apart. Each are big enough to be their own metro area, but because of county lines, they're the same metro;
• San Francisco-Oakland and San Jose, which have unbroken urban development between them and are considered one region (the Bay Area) by media, academics, and socially, but because of commuting data, are broken into two metros;
• San Bernardino County, which has 2.4 million people, nearly all concentrated in the southwest corner of the county, but because the county itself is so huge, Needles, population 4,500, separated from San Bernardino by 210 miles of desert, is considered part of the metropolitan area.

Census-defined Urban Areas solve this problem to an extent (using contiguous built-up areas as a building block, ignoring governmental boundaries), but still uses commuting data (so San Francisco and San Jose are still separated), yet allows small geographic breaks to separate areas (so Antioch-Pittsburg, Concord-Walnut Creek, and Oakland are separate urban areas because of breaks of under 3 miles of hills).

There are also New England's NECTAs, which are town-based by necessity due to some states no longer having county governments, but in a way they could work in other parts of the country with strange county boundaries.
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ZLoth

Quote from: DTComposer on November 14, 2024, 11:50:49 PMMSAs have their own issues, though - they're built on:
• Counties, which are fixed, so can't adjust based on new growth patterns (other than adding other counties), and can contain large rural swaths

I agree. The Sacramento–Roseville–Folsom, CA MSA, for example, includes Placer and El Dorado counties which stretch from  Sacramento county to the Lake Tahoe area of the California State Line. Likewise, as previously pointed out, San Bernardino County, at 20,105 square miles, is the largest county within the United States, and is bigger than that the total area of Maryland.

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thspfc

Can't believe Jacksonville is the ~10th-largest city. The only time city population is useful is to infer the effects of municipal boundaries on certain statistics. i.e. St. Louis' crime rate is astronomical in part because the city limits are tight compared to most major cities, and as a result contain less of the further-reaching neighborhoods that tend to have lower crime and bring down a city's averages.

jgb191

#18
By the end of this decade, I suspect:

-- Houston will catch Chicago for 3rd largest city.
-- San Antonio will catch Philadelphia for the 6th largest city.
-- Only a quarter-million will separate Dallas ahead of Ft. Worth by 2030.
-- Florida will be the eight (8th) state in US history to have a millionaire city: Jacksonville.
-- Texas will be the only state to have five (5) millionaire cities (Austin and Ft. Worth should reach the million mark milestone within the next couple of years). 
-- DFW metroplex will be the first in North America history to have ever have a pair of millionaire cities within the same metro area.
We're so far south that we're not even considered "The South"

JayhawkCO

Quote from: jgb191 on November 15, 2024, 12:01:06 PM-- DFW metroplex will be the first in North America history to have ever have a pair of millionaire cities within the same metro area.

Too late for this one. Mexico City, Ecatepec, and Nezahualcóyotl are all in the Mexico City metro.

Zapopan and Guadalajara are both in the same metro too.

Flint1979

I always look at urban population over city proper or metro population. Boston is in 10th place. With that it goes NYC, LA, Chicago, Miami, Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Philly, DC, Atlanta and Boston.

DTComposer

Quote from: Flint1979 on November 15, 2024, 12:08:33 PMI always look at urban population over city proper or metro population. Boston is in 10th place. With that it goes NYC, LA, Chicago, Miami, Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Philly, DC, Atlanta and Boston.

This is generally what I use as well, except the Census Bureau introduces commuting data that pulls the definitions away from the reality of continuous urban development.

For example, the boundary between two separate urban areas (Los Angeles-Long Beach and Riverside-San Bernardino) runs through this picture. Any guess where? Hint: it is a very irregular boundary that runs diagonally though the picture and almost never follows a freeway or arterial road.



The same thing happens between Dallas-Fort Worth and Frisco-McKinney, between San Francisco and San Jose, and other places. For the Bay Area, the reality is there is a string of unbroken urban development (save for the Golden Gate Bridge) from Novato south to San Jose and north to Crockett with 5.3 million people.

roadman65

From Jupiter to Homestead in Florida. All unbroken urban development.

What about now between Wilmington and Philadelphia and from Philadelphia to New York?

One can really say from Northern Virginia to Massachusetts is all one long developed area of continuous communities.
Every day is a winding road, you just got to get used to it.

Sheryl Crowe

ZLoth

One measure is by the television market. Per this article, the DFW area gained 134,060 television household while Philadelphia lost 30,620 households. That now makes the DFW television market the #4 television market while Philadelphia drops to #5.
Don't Drive Distrac... SQUIRREL!

Scott5114

That's not a very good measurement, though, because a lot of people don't follow traditional television anymore. That article talks about NYC losing 100,000 TV homes, but I doubt it lost 100,000 actual people; they just stopped watching TV. (The article doesn't give the context of whether a home that's streaming only counts as a "TV home" per these measurements.)
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