Thought I make this thread for everything tornado/hail-related. We have a severe risk for Saturday and Wednesday.
EDIT: The image URL will always direct to the Storm Prediction Center's daily severe weather outlook, so it will always show the relevant day's chances of severe storms. I'm glad I posted this up top :D
It's go-time for severe weather season! The Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/) has just upgraded the threat from enhanced to moderate, for the mid-Ohio valley to the Missouri bootheel and the Memphis area. Widespread severe weather is expected, especially damaging winds, and there's also a significant chance of tornadoes.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Foutlook%2Fday1otlk_1630.gif&hash=05231c0f9d44ba13252c8db79b1809a4696d3cc0)
It is indeed the time of year for severe weather. :paranoid: :camera:
I wonder if this storm system is heading towards my neck of the woods (northwest Georgia). However, I will be in the lowcountry of South Carolina in a couple of days, so it's possible it may not affect me in the same way than if I wasn't going out of town at the end of this week.
In their area, does anyone else want more severe weather?
LG-TP260
Quote from: Hurricane Rex on April 04, 2018, 01:23:44 AM
In their area, does anyone else want more severe weather?
LG-TP260
I always do. I was in the MDT area yesterday, got northing, but was under a severe thunderstorm warning TWICE, the first such occurrence in a same day for Indy.
The slight risk for eastern NC for today is beginning to look like much adieu about nothing. The we never got the clear skies here in New Bern that was needed to really get things going. Latest word from SPC is that a severe watch is unlikely (only 20% chance).
Where I am (northwest Georgia), there did end up being some strong thunderstorms for a very brief amount of time last night (from 1 to 2 AM, IIRC). There was some very strong winds and rain as well, I think. It didn't last long at all, and thankfully, I don't think it really caused too many (if any) damages in my town (Dalton, GA).
Sustained 60 mph winds today, with snow showers.
Take a look at the Rochester area right now on Google Maps (with traffic turned on). Road closures everywhere due to fallen trees. No power at home as we speak :banghead: :coffee:
Enhanced risk tomorrow.
MDT risk today... oh god...
Severe weather moving through Arkansas today! Fort Smith was under a Tornado Warning until 4:15 CST. There are still storms moving (s)west to (n)east. Another round looks like it is headed for Fort Smith and the NAW area. Mountainburg, AR already had a tornado touch down.
State of Emergency for Danville, VA after a long tracked wedge tornado that started in Greensboro tore through the western part of the city. This system also went to produce another tornado near Lynchburg.
Quote from: paulthemapguy on April 03, 2018, 12:55:22 PM
EDIT: The image URL will always direct to the Storm Prediction Center's daily severe weather outlook, so it will always show the relevant day's chances of severe storms. I'm glad I posted this up top :D
It's go-time for severe weather season! The Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/) has just upgraded the threat from enhanced to moderate, for the mid-Ohio valley to the Missouri bootheel and the Memphis area. Widespread severe weather is expected, especially damaging winds, and there's also a significant chance of tornadoes.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Foutlook%2Fday1otlk_1630.gif&hash=05231c0f9d44ba13252c8db79b1809a4696d3cc0)
Thanks for posting this. I have it bookmarked.
3 feet of rain in Hawaii on one day on Saturday.
LG-TP260
Long term severe weather outbreak expected starting today.
I love severe weather. I just hope it doesn't continue into Saturday, because I'm planning on taking a road trip that day and any rain would ruin that. I mean, who wants to take pictures standing outside in the rain?
Oh my - moderate risk tonight. SPC was supposed to update tomorrow's risk area 15 minutes ago.
And tomorrow. Might even happen Thursday as well
Well THIS is unusual.
SPC has an enhanced threat of severe storms over...Vermont and upstate New York? Last I checked there was nothing more than a marginal risk slated for that region. (see the second post for image) Storm Prediction Center Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)
Just checked the SPC archives... and I saw this.
(https://vgy.me/YY8Hzu.png)
I have never seen a MOD risk in the Northeast before. This is from earlier today.
EDIT: Apparently this was already written. Thanks @paulthemapguy!
UPDATE!
A MOD risk for severe weather has just been sent out by the SPC for parts of Northern New Jersey, Southern Upstate New York, Southwestern Massachusetts, Northwestern Connecticut, and Northeastern Pennsylvania. They're also predicting a 60% severe wind threat, one of the first I've seen in a while.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Foutlook%2Fday1probotlk_1630_wind.gif%3F1526410007244&hash=abed7ac3dea57157b59555534ce168591bf5e85a)
Quote from: TBKS1 on May 15, 2018, 02:47:27 PM
UPDATE!
A MOD risk for severe weather has just been sent out by the SPC for parts of Northern New Jersey, Southern Upstate New York, Southwestern Massachusetts, Northwestern Connecticut, and Northeastern Pennsylvania. They're also predicting a 60% severe wind threat, one of the first I've seen in a while.
I was surprised to see the 60% wind risk. Given the atmospheric conditions, it makes sense, but it's just so rare! Being the weather nerd I am, I'm jealous of my family that lives in SW Massachusetts.
Northeast gonna get creamed today lol
Nothing happened here except for some rain.
Minor thunderstorm here.
Look at the area of severe weather risk from yesterday. Areas from south central Mass to northeast Pennsylvania are just COATED in blue dots, showing reports of damaging winds. Tons of reports from "downstate" New York and Connecticut.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spc.noaa.gov%2Fclimo%2Freports%2F180515_rpts_filtered.gif&hash=caddc02af1cf6c0f24883264636f7a65cacbc999)
Given the amount of tornado warnings the Northeast had yesterday, I'm surprised only one tornado came out of it.
Quote from: adwerkema on May 16, 2018, 12:18:21 PM
Given the amount of tornado warnings the Northeast had yesterday, I'm surprised only one tornado came out of it.
They should give "tornado warning" its original definition again: that a tornado has been spotted. Currently, it's not much different from a tornado watch.
Quote from: 1 on May 16, 2018, 12:36:09 PM
They should give "tornado warning" its original definition again: that a tornado has been spotted. Currently, it's not much different from a tornado watch.
Agreed. It'd also help reduce the "boy who cried wolf" effect.
Quote from: adwerkema on May 16, 2018, 02:44:53 PM
Quote from: 1 on May 16, 2018, 12:36:09 PM
They should give "tornado warning" its original definition again: that a tornado has been spotted. Currently, it's not much different from a tornado watch.
Agreed. It'd also help reduce the "boy who cried wolf" effect.
The NWS has taken notice of this in the last few years. They have stated that they're trying to limit the area covered by a tornado warning as much as possible to prevent false alarms, for one thing. There may be some further changes to protocol coming soon.
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Quote from: adwerkema on May 16, 2018, 12:18:21 PM
Given the amount of tornado warnings the Northeast had yesterday, I'm surprised only one tornado came out of it.
Looks like the NWS updated the storm report to 3 tornadoes.
Quote from: Jim on May 16, 2018, 04:32:23 PM
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Particularly Dangerous Situation is a status given to a Tornado Watch, not a warning. It's for a Tornado Watch where long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. Think of it as the technical definition of "Jim Cantore is headed our way"
Tornado Emergency is a status given to a Tornado Warning where it is confirmed that a strong tornado is on the ground.
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 16, 2018, 04:52:08 PM
Quote from: Jim on May 16, 2018, 04:32:23 PM
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Particularly Dangerous Situation is a status given to a Tornado Watch, not a warning. It's for a Tornado Watch where long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. Think of it as the technical definition of "Jim Cantore is headed our way"
Tornado Emergency is a status given to a Tornado Warning where it is confirmed that a strong tornado is on the ground.
Actually, there are PDS Tornado Warnings, which act as the second highest level of tornado warning, right below the tornado emergency. PDS warnings are issued when there is a confirmed tornado on the ground with a considerable damage threat. Tornado emergencies are the highest level, reserved for when confirmed dangerous tornadoes hit densely populated areas and are expected to cause catastrophic damage and/or many fatalities.
Quote from: US 89 on May 17, 2018, 01:00:13 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 16, 2018, 04:52:08 PM
Quote from: Jim on May 16, 2018, 04:32:23 PM
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Particularly Dangerous Situation is a status given to a Tornado Watch, not a warning. It's for a Tornado Watch where long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. Think of it as the technical definition of "Jim Cantore is headed our way"
Tornado Emergency is a status given to a Tornado Warning where it is confirmed that a strong tornado is on the ground.
Actually, there are PDS Tornado Warnings, which act as the second highest level of tornado warning, right below the tornado emergency. PDS warnings are issued when there is a confirmed tornado on the ground with a considerable damage threat. Tornado emergencies are the highest level, reserved for when confirmed dangerous tornadoes hit densely populated areas and are expected to cause catastrophic damage and/or many fatalities.
I've rarely seen PDS warnings, it's always regular or tornado emergency warnings
Quote from: ET21 on May 17, 2018, 08:47:26 AM
Quote from: US 89 on May 17, 2018, 01:00:13 AM
Quote from: cabiness42 on May 16, 2018, 04:52:08 PM
Quote from: Jim on May 16, 2018, 04:32:23 PM
I've also seen that NWS issues some "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings when a destructive tornado is confirmed on the ground and is in or on its way toward populated areas.
It seems to me they need to have more degrees of warnings where there are differences that can be easily understood by the public. Best I can tell, tornado warning for "storm capable of producing a tornado" is called the same thing as for one which has a "radar indicated tornado" and for one which is producing a tornado confirmed by a spotter.
Particularly Dangerous Situation is a status given to a Tornado Watch, not a warning. It's for a Tornado Watch where long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. Think of it as the technical definition of "Jim Cantore is headed our way"
Tornado Emergency is a status given to a Tornado Warning where it is confirmed that a strong tornado is on the ground.
Actually, there are PDS Tornado Warnings, which act as the second highest level of tornado warning, right below the tornado emergency. PDS warnings are issued when there is a confirmed tornado on the ground with a considerable damage threat. Tornado emergencies are the highest level, reserved for when confirmed dangerous tornadoes hit densely populated areas and are expected to cause catastrophic damage and/or many fatalities.
I've rarely seen PDS warnings, it's always regular or tornado emergency warnings
I've never seen a PDS warning, only a PDS Watch. The March 2012 Southern Indiana tornado outbreak came with a PDS watch and a Tornado Emergency Warning.
Quote from: 1 on May 16, 2018, 12:36:09 PM
Quote from: adwerkema on May 16, 2018, 12:18:21 PM
Given the amount of tornado warnings the Northeast had yesterday, I'm surprised only one tornado came out of it.
They should give "tornado warning" its original definition again: that a tornado has been spotted. Currently, it's not much different from a tornado watch.
I mentioned this in another thread but the "original definition", as you call it, was never fully done away with.
Rather, they added the "radar indicated" option, as the new technology of radar can detect debris in the air after a tornado has occurred. This is particularly helpful at night when tornadoes are difficult to visually spot, or in situations where a tornado may be rain wrapped.
To address another point in this thread, as noted, "Particularly Dangerous Situation" tornado warnings ARE indeed issued by NWS offices. This is done for tornadoes that are doing significant damage, but the situation does not rise to the levels warranting a Tornado Emergency, which is still an accepted type of enhanced warning.
The bottom line: ANY tornado can be life threatening -- so the distinction between a PDS, a Tornado Emergency, and a "normal" tornado warning should be irrelevant to your safety -- seek shelter immediately for any tornado warning.
Here is a prime example of a situation where such technology helps identify a tornado. This particular storm was in Pickens County, Alabama on February 2, 2016 and had a PDS Tornado Warning issued for it two minutes prior to the time I snapped this photo.
The top right panel shows correlation coefficient, which measures how similarly both the horizontal and vertical radar pulses are behaving. The area of blue in the middle of all that yellow indicates negative values, meaning something other than rain is being seen -- which in this case was a non-meteorological (i.e. debris) target. This was co-located with both the velocity couplet (both left side panels) and the highest reflectivity (bottom right). A tornado did touch down from this and was confirmed by spotters -- but it did not remain down and indeed, the follow-up statement was for "radar indicated rotation".
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FOwhSIEG.jpg&hash=10341d62d234bcdbdfd9e4afb6b1a9d0c7dbb89f) (http://imgur.com/OwhSIEG)
Twin tornado supercell yesterday across Iowa, with Marshalltown getting a direct hit. Early indications of EF3 damage
A severe storm capsized a Ride the Ducks boat in Branson, MO. 13 confirmed fatalities, 4 people still missing.
Another big day today.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm2.staticflickr.com%2F1783%2F43529221771_a830f32551_b.jpg&hash=52aa6e55bf761b6487ca8e7badbdc41194a21e91)
Quote from: adwerkema on July 20, 2018, 10:36:37 AM
Another big day today.
(https://www.aaroads.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm2.staticflickr.com%2F1783%2F43529221771_a830f32551_b.jpg&hash=52aa6e55bf761b6487ca8e7badbdc41194a21e91)
We had heavy storms last night. Power appears to have "blinked", but I slept through it until I had to reset my clocks this morning
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 11:07:27 AM
Quote from: adwerkema on July 20, 2018, 10:36:37 AM
Another big day today.
We had heavy storms last night. Power appears to have "blinked", but I slept through it until I had to reset my clocks this morning
Clocks are always a good indicator of a power outage :-D
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 09:05:44 AM
A severe storm capsized a Ride the Ducks boat in Branson, MO. 13 confirmed fatalities, 4 people still missing.
Not good for a company that already had a very questionable history of safety.
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 20, 2018, 12:10:52 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 09:05:44 AM
A severe storm capsized a Ride the Ducks boat in Branson, MO. 13 confirmed fatalities, 4 people still missing.
Not good for a company that already had a very questionable history of safety.
17 fatalities, 14 injured. Latest update 10:50 am
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 12:18:15 PM
Quote from: jeffandnicole on July 20, 2018, 12:10:52 PM
Quote from: US71 on July 20, 2018, 09:05:44 AM
A severe storm capsized a Ride the Ducks boat in Branson, MO. 13 confirmed fatalities, 4 people still missing.
Not good for a company that already had a very questionable history of safety.
17 fatalities, 14 injured. Latest update 10:50 am
The sad part is that there was plenty of warning that bad weather was possible. A severe thunderstorm watch had been in effect for most of the day, and a severe thunderstorm warning was issued at 6:32 pm, 30 minutes before the incident happened.
Quote from: ET21 on July 20, 2018, 08:12:20 AM
Twin tornado supercell yesterday across Iowa, with Marshalltown getting a direct hit. Early indications of EF3 damage
NWS gave it a preliminary EF3 damage rating
Quote from: Interstate 69 Fan on July 20, 2018, 09:43:22 PM
Quote from: ET21 on July 20, 2018, 08:12:20 AM
Twin tornado supercell yesterday across Iowa, with Marshalltown getting a direct hit. Early indications of EF3 damage
NWS gave it a preliminary EF3 damage rating
I guessed it would be an EF3 too based on pictures posted to twitter. I saw the aftermath of an EF3 that hit Coal City, IL, a few years ago, and the damage in Marshalltown looked to be the same caliber.
https://www.weather.gov/dmx/20180719_Tornadoes
Two EF3s and an EF2
An EF-3 tornado hit Virginia Beach, VA on Sunday, which was the city's first EF-3 on record. VA Beach also declared a local state of emergency.
Enhanced risk area for most of Oklahoma and south Kansas. Thunderstorms firing off around Lawton. I've seen this movie before, have you?
I see that part of the Storm King Highway was washed out due to the Upstate New York flooding.
I always wanted to put that road on my bucket list.
Quote from: D-Dey65 on July 10, 2023, 01:53:38 PM
I see that part of the Storm King Highway was washed out due to the Upstate New York flooding.
I always wanted to put that road on my bucket list.
I walked it in the off-season.
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 11, 2023, 06:41:41 PM
Enhanced risk area for most of Oklahoma and south Kansas. Thunderstorms firing off around Lawton. I've seen this movie before, have you?
'
Anybody else think that the 'Enhanced' and 'Moderate' labels should be flip-flopped? Enhanced sounds more serious than Moderate.
Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on July 10, 2023, 02:19:05 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on May 11, 2023, 06:41:41 PM
Enhanced risk area for most of Oklahoma and south Kansas. Thunderstorms firing off around Lawton. I've seen this movie before, have you?
Anybody else think that the 'Enhanced' and 'Moderate' labels should be flip-flopped? Enhanced sounds more serious than Moderate.
That's because the scale was originally SLGT-MDT-HIGH. ENH and Marginal (MRGL) were added later on.
I'm personally used to it enough, it would be weird if it changed at this point.
ENH helped bridge the gap between slight and moderate risks while MGL replaced the see text on outlooks prior to the update
Western Montana received quite a dump of rain these last three days starting with what looked like a 13 hour stretch of moderate showers in spurts of about 20 minutes at a time on Monday. I saw another burst of moderate rain at about 6 PM MDT on Tuesday, then another at 5:30 AM MDT this Wednesday morning before it cleared by 10 AM MDT. It still doesn't erase the severe drought conditions however, but it does slowly help break off any long form drought. These spurts of moderate to sometimes heavy rain in many areas were mainly coming from the remnants of former Tropical Storm Hilary. While it does help tap down some of the wildfires in my home state, there are still mud slide and flooding issues at hand in multiple areas including burn scars where lightning struck fires have occurred.
https://apnews.com/article/derna-libya-floods-storm-daniel-95379b164871d97fb74b1cd1bcb5640c
Libya hit with floods and Thousands are reported dead.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/more-than-1000-bodies-recovered-libyan-city-after-floods-minister-2023-09-12/
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/huge-death-toll-libyan-storm-expected-climb-2023-09-13/
Here is more on the Libyan floods.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/they-knew-fury-libyans-that-warnings-went-unheeded-before-flood-2023-09-15/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/they-knew-fury-libyans-that-warnings-went-unheeded-before-flood-2023-09-15/)
Here is more on the Libya Floods and the lead up to the event.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66838559
More fallout from the Libyan floods.
https://abc7ny.com/weather-nyc-storm-preparations-flash-flooding/13840658/
https://abc7ny.com/nj-weather-new-jersey-rain-flooding/13845479/
Flood Reported in the New York Area.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/07/flooding-southern-california-deaths-mudslides
Mudslides reported all over the LA area.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/los-angeles-fire-chief-crews-responded-307-mudslides-106993395
Our first ever February tornado in Wisconsin wrecked some homes and farms near Evansville last night. No fatalities or serious injuries, fortunately.
The supercell tracked from just east of Monroe to just north of Edgerton:
(https://www.weather.gov/images/mkx/top-news/2024/mrms.png)
It would have been at its worst when it crossed WI 59 and the Dane-Rock county line.
NWS is out assessing damage, but to my amateur eye, it looks like at least EF2 based on photos I've seen.
Last weekend was my first "car in the garage" night of the year. Nothing came of it and likely won't have another one of those until late March (I hope).