NFL (2024 Season)

[kurumi]

Just realized that I am within a couple days of the exact same age as Jets quarterback Zach Wilson.

Wow, that is hard to wrap my head around.

you are also a better football player

Midway through last season, ESPN or a similar site was breaking down strengths and weaknesses of all 32 teams. The Jets' weakness was a single word: "Football".

[webny99]

Apparently Wilson has been less than impressive in training camp.

Surprisingly it never occurred to me until just now that the NFL now has two Wilson QB's - Zach and Russell.

There's also three Allen QB's, but Kyle and Brandon aren't as well known.

[thspfc]

Apparently Wilson has been less than impressive in training camp.

Surprisingly it never occurred to me until just now that the NFL now has two Wilson QB's - Zach and Russell.

There's also three Allen QB's, but Kyle and Brandon aren't as well known.

Brandon Allen had a huge game against the Texans week 16 last season. Of course it was a 3-10-1 team vs. a 4-10 team at 12:00 PM, so nobody watched.

[thspfc]

Ryan Fitzpatrick is still on his whining tirade about being benched for Tua in week 8 last season. Maybe if you didn't want to be benched you should have done better than, checks notes . . .

20/30, 191 yards, 3 INTs at New England
29/45, 315 yards, 2 INTs vs Seattle
18/27, 191 yards, 3 INTs vs the Jets

Even his good games were nothing special, and they were against the mediocre at best Bills' defense, the 1-15 Jaguars, and the 49ers who were injured to Mars and back. Dude has never led a team to the playoffs and has a career winning percentage of .409. There's a reason why he's always on bad teams. Well, two reasons, actually. 1) He's a below average starter at best, and a mediocre backup at worst. And 2) Because he's not good, he only ever gets asked to start on bad teams who have no realistic hopes of doing anything in the playoffs, and just need someone to ensure that they only lose by 7-10 points instead of 20. He's going to have a dreadful start to the year and be benched for Taylor Heinicke by week 5. And the worst part is that people still adore him. Maybe it's the extravagant outfits after winning a week 2 game against a mediocre team, in a season in which he would get benched two weeks later and the team would go 5-11. I don't know but Fitzpatrick and his fans are getting on my nerves and it makes me hate the Football Team even more.

[JayhawkCO]

I'm not a Fitzpatrick fan per se, but you're definitely cherry picking stats.

His games started before getting benched:
Week 1 @ NE: 20/30, 191 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT - Obviously not a good game

Week 2 vs. BUF: 31/47, 328 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT - Almost beat the #2 seed in the AFC

Week 3 @ JAX: 18/20, 160 yds, 3 (total) TD, 0 INT - Won the game easily and performed as well as needed

Week 4 vs. SEA: 29/45, 315 yds, 1 (total) TD, 2 INT - Not a great game from him, but lost to a team that was at that point 3-0 and playing very well

Week 5 @ SF: 22/28, 350 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT - Very good game from him against a pretty good defense

Week 6 vs. NYJ: 18/28, 191 yds, 3 TD (which you conveniently left out), 2 INT (not 3, as you posted) - Ball got away from him a little bit, but still 3 TDs and a shutout against the Jets.

He's not a bad quarterback.  Certainly not a great either, but his stats were definitely better than Tua's when he started the next batch of games.

Week 8 vs. LAR: 12/22, 93 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT - Barely moved the ball

Week 9 @ ARI: 20/28, 248 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT - His best game as a starter, unquestionably

Week 10 vs. LAC: 15/25, 169 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT - Not bad, not great

Week 11 @ DEN: 11/20, 83 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT - Barely moved the ball

Averages in these stretches:
Yards: Fitzpatrick - 256, Tua - 148 -> Advantage Fitzpatrick
Completion Percentage: Fitzpatrick - 69.7%, Tua - 61.0% -> Advantage Fitzpatrick
TDs: Fitzpatrick - 1.83, Tua - 1.5 -> Advantage Fitzpatrick
INTs: Fitzpatrick - 1.17, Tua - 0 -> Advantage Tua

I don't know how you can really argue who was better statistically and if I were Fitzy, I'd be upset about getting benched too.

Chris

[webny99]

Week 2 vs. BUF: 31/47, 328 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT - Beat the #2 seed in the AFC

Not a bad performance, but the Bills won that game 31-28.

(I don't have any strong Fitz takes myself, but am mildly amused by those of you that do!  )

[JayhawkCO]

Week 2 vs. BUF: 31/47, 328 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT - Beat the #2 seed in the AFC

Not a bad performance, but the Bills won that game 31-28.

(I don't have any strong Fitz takes myself, but am mildly amused by those of you that do!  )

Oops, was going too quickly. I'll edit.  I don't have a huge take, but a) I just like a nice, civil argument and b) I don't like selective stat references.



Also, for those of you that like advanced stats:

2020 DVOA: Fitzpatrick - +7.5%, Tua - -8.5% (DVOA is basically how successful a player is vs. the average player in the league in the same game situations.  Positive is better.) -> Advantage Fitzpatrick

2020 DYAR: Fitzpatrick - 362, Tua - 56 (DYAR is defense-adjusted yards above replacement player.  Higher is better.) -> Advantage Fitzpatrick

Chris

[thspfc]

My top 10 hot takes for this season:

10. Chiefs blow out the Browns 48-21 in week 1
9. Vikings make the playoffs
8. Texans finish with at least 5 wins
7. 49ers get last in the NFC West (shouldn't be a hot take because they were last in 2020, but people like them for some reason)
6. Eagles finish with fewer than 5 wins
5. Panthers finish with fewer than 6 wins
4. Ryan Fitzpatrick is benched for Taylor Heinicke by mid-October
3. NFC East has three teams with a record of 8-9 or better
2. Jets don't win a single game until late November/early December and get the no. 1 overall pick
1. Tua Tagovailoa finishes with a higher completion percentage, more yards per attempt, better QBR, better passer rating, more touchdowns, and fewer turnovers than Joe Burrow

[thspfc]

I'm not a Fitzpatrick fan per se, but you're definitely cherry picking stats.

His games started before getting benched:
Week 1 @ NE: 20/30, 191 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT - Obviously not a good game

Week 2 vs. BUF: 31/47, 328 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT - Almost beat the #2 seed in the AFC

Week 3 @ JAX: 18/20, 160 yds, 3 (total) TD, 0 INT - Won the game easily and performed as well as needed

Week 4 vs. SEA: 29/45, 315 yds, 1 (total) TD, 2 INT - Not a great game from him, but lost to a team that was at that point 3-0 and playing very well

Week 5 @ SF: 22/28, 350 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT - Very good game from him against a pretty good defense

Week 6 vs. NYJ: 18/28, 191 yds, 3 TD (which you conveniently left out), 2 INT (not 3, as you posted) - Ball got away from him a little bit, but still 3 TDs and a shutout against the Jets.

He's not a bad quarterback.  Certainly not a great either, but his stats were definitely better than Tua's when he started the next batch of games.

Week 8 vs. LAR: 12/22, 93 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT - Barely moved the ball

Week 9 @ ARI: 20/28, 248 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT - His best game as a starter, unquestionably

Week 10 vs. LAC: 15/25, 169 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT - Not bad, not great

Week 11 @ DEN: 11/20, 83 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT - Barely moved the ball

Averages in these stretches:
Yards: Fitzpatrick - 256, Tua - 148 -> Advantage Fitzpatrick
Completion Percentage: Fitzpatrick - 69.7%, Tua - 61.0% -> Advantage Fitzpatrick
TDs: Fitzpatrick - 1.83, Tua - 1.5 -> Advantage Fitzpatrick
INTs: Fitzpatrick - 1.17, Tua - 0 -> Advantage Tua

I don't know how you can really argue who was better statistically and if I were Fitzy, I'd be upset about getting benched too.

Chris

Tua is also the future of the team though. Fitzpatrick was at least mediocre during his time in Miami, but mediocre will not get you anywhere in a conference where you will have to contend with the Chiefs, Bills, Browns, Chargers, and Ravens for the next decade, at least. Even if Fitzpatrick was slightly better this season, look at how much crap the Packers have been getting over the past 16 months for the Jordan Love situation, and how he didn't play in 2020. Now imagine if it was Ryan Fitzpatrick starting over Love rather than the league MVP. You have to see what your first round pick can do in the regular season.

[thspfc]

Week 2 vs. BUF: 31/47, 328 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT - Beat the #2 seed in the AFC

Not a bad performance, but the Bills won that game 31-28.

(I don't have any strong Fitz takes myself, but am mildly amused by those of you that do!  )

I wasn't going to bring up W/L records, but FWIW, Tua went 6-3 compared to Fitzpatrick's 4-3.

[kurumi]

My top 10 hot takes for this season:
7. 49ers get last in the NFC West (shouldn't be a hot take because they were last in 2020, but people like them for some reason)

The pundits seem mildly optimistic about this year (but not to the point of leading the division or going far). Win total projections:
ESPN: 10-11
USA Today ("San Francisco 48ers" though): 10
Bleacher Report: 8
SI: 10-11
CBS: 10.5
Quick eyeballing of other predictions from those sources: NFC West shakes out to LA/SEA, then SF, then AZ

tl;dr: I agree, it's a hot take :-)

[thspfc]

My 2021 AFC predictions . . .

AFC East

1. Bills (13-4): My one big concern with the Bills is running the ball. It was the reason why their offense fizzled out in the playoffs, playing poorly against the Ravens and then getting blown out by the Chiefs. If Josh Allen has an off game, or even a mediocre game, they're in trouble. Case in point: the Titans and Chiefs games last season. Their defense also struggled against the better passing offenses they played last year. But the Bills' passing offense will carry them to a great regular season.

2. Dolphins (11-6): I was very anti-Dolphins last season but I'm coming around on them now. The two reasons why I don't think they will win the division are a) we don't know if Tua is the answer at QB, and b) the Bills absolutely gashed them last year to the tune of 87 points over two games. But they have an excellent group of skill players and a good secondary.

3. Patriots (9-8): I'm always skeptical of teams who draft QBs in the first round, but I don't think Belichick will be rushing to get Mac Jones in there too soon. The problem is that Cam Newton can't throw the ball downfield, yet all New England has are deep ball WRs. They have two good tight ends, but tight ends do not win you a lot of games. Overall it's a decent team but they have no "it factor", nobody who is going to scare opposing teams.

4. Jets (2-15): They'll go 0-6 in the division because in terms of talent and experience they are far inferior everywhere on the field compared to the other three teams in the division. With a first year coaching staff, a bad offensive line, and a below average skill group, Zach Wilson will have a rough time in year 1.



AFC North

1. Ravens (13-4): They will once again have the best rushing offense in the league by far. Lamar Jackson's passing stats will improve with the addition of a few wide receivers including Sammy Watkins. But the best rushing offense doesn't get you far in the playoffs if you can't consistently throw for 250-350 yards a game.

2. Browns (13-4): I have them second in the division because they struggled against the Ravens last year, giving up a total of 85 points in those two games. Baker Mayfield will take another step forward, but he won't by any means be an elite quarterback. They have the best offensive line and probably the best duo of running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Their secondary was atrocious last year but they improved it in the offseason, with John Johnson from the Rams and Greg Newsome from Northwestern. Even so I think they get ripped apart by the Chiefs in week 1 because it's not good to play the Chiefs with a brand new secondary.

3. Steelers (11-6): The only thing people remember about the Steelers is how they slumped to end the season, not how they started 11-0. But they did start 11-0. Big Ben is still better than people think. They have three great young receivers. They have improved their running game with Najee Harris. Their pass rush is really good. The problem is that I don't think they will do any better than 1-3 against the top two teams in the division.

4. Bengals (5-12): Similar to the Jets but not as bad, the Bengals will be the obvious runt of the litter in this division. They might snatch an upset win over Pittsburgh or Cleveland. Joe Burrow is still recovering from injury, their offensive line is still bad, and their defense is still really bad.



AFC South

1. Titans (10-7): Their offense will be top 6-8 in the league, and their defense will be bottom 10. They benefit from being in a weak division.

2. Colts (7-10): They are better than their record will show, but the fact is there are so many good teams in the AFC that it has to be like that for some teams. Carson Wentz's foot injury is concerning, even if he's ready to go in week 1. Let's not forget that Wentz was less than impressive in 2020. They had a tendency to play down to the level of their opponent last year, I think they'll lose some close games that they should have won.

3. Texans (5-12): Deshaun Watson is sadly going to be starting for the Texans this season. The majority of their losses in 2020 were close, they were better than their record would indicate. With no cap room and no draft picks until the third round, they didn't improve much in the offseason. The defense is still awful.

4. Jaguars (4-13) Below average offensive line, rookie quarterback, and first year head coach. They do have decent RBs and WRs. They'll be exciting for the first few games, but everyone will soon realize that they're not very good. That being said I do expect Trevor Lawrence to have a decent rookie season.



AFC West

1. Chiefs (15-2): Their offense is ridiculous and the addition of Orlando Brown should make it one level higher still than last season. They are the best two minute drill team ever, other than perhaps the '07 Patriots. Mahomes will put up MVP stats yet again. One thing they had issues with last season was, oddly, red zone offense.

2. Chargers (9-8): I think they will struggle at the beginning of the season with a first year head coach, a brand new offensive line, and a heavily frontloaded schedule. But they'll pick it up later on in the season. Justin Herbert will have a great year, but the pressure on him will increase during the offseason, with no playoff appearences.

3. Broncos (6-11): I hope they start Drew Lock rather than Teddy Bridgewater because Bridgewater is a ticket straight to 6 wins without fail, whereas with Lock they will at least see once and for all whether or not he has a future as a starter. Their receivers, tight ends, and running backs are pretty good (so long as they don't have to play quarterback  ). Defense is a far cry from the No Fly Zone, to say the least.

4. Raiders (5-12): They don't have anybody or any group of players that will go out and win the team the game. There are questions about the head coach. Their offensive line was gutted. They're always bad in November and December. Really there's not too much to like about this team, aside from their stadium I guess.



AFC Playoffs
1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Ravens
4. Titans
5. Browns
6. Steelers
7. Dolphins

Wild Card
Bills beat Dolphins - As I mentioned, the Dolphins had trouble with the Bills last season
Steelers beat Ravens - Steelers are the more complete team, and that's important in the playoffs
Browns beat Titans - Titans defense was really bad against the Browns last season

Divisional
Chiefs beat Steelers - Chiefs offense coming off a bye will be too much for even the Steelers defense to handle
Browns beat Bills - Browns running game will power through the Bills defense

AFC Championship
Chiefs beat Browns - the only reason why the divisional round game last season wasn't a blowout was the Mahomes injury


AFC offensive player of the year: Patrick Mahomes
AFC defensive player of the year: TJ Watt
AFC offensive rookie of the year: Trevor Lawrence
AFC defensive rookie of the year: Patrick Surtain
Fired coaches: Zac Taylor (CIN), Vic Fangio (DEN), Jon Gruden (LV)

[JayhawkCO]

Just for a counterpoint...

My 2021 AFC predictions . . .

AFC East

1. Bills (12-5): I'm seeing Josh Allen a little bit like Lamar Jackson last year where teams are going to understand how to game plan for him a bit more.  Still a good team.

2. Dolphins (11-6): I think the defense leads the way, Tua does okay but not great, and the running game is a committee mess.

3. Patriots (7-10): Belichick is still Belichick, but I don't see how the offense offers anything scary.  Especially with Miami having improved, I don't see them getting to .500.

4. Jets (3-14): They're bad, but every one in a while blind squirrels find nuts.


AFC North

1. Ravens (12-5): Good defense, good running game.  We'll see if adding some receivers does anything.

2. Steelers (11-6): Tomlin's teams don't stay down for long.  The offensive line is terrible, but they have three really good WRs so I expect Big Ben to air it out a lot.

3. Browns (9-8): Cleveland isn't allowed to have nice things for long.

4. Bengals (7-10): Very underrated offense.  Defense terrible.


AFC South

1. Titans (13-4): They'll go 6-0 in the division.  Adding Julio won't honestly move the needle that much on offense.

2. Jaguars (7-10): Underrated offensive weapons again.  A slight surprised to finish second in the division.

3. Colts (6-11): No QB, No WRs.  Pretty much just Jonathan Taylor on offense and if he gets hurt, watch out. 

4. Texans (2-15): Worst defense in the league.  If DeShaun doesn't play, arguably worst offense in the league.


AFC West

1. Chiefs (16-1): Mahomes is a bad, bad man.

2. Chargers (11-6): Ekeler is underrated.  Herbert will vault into the top 7-8 QBs in the league.  Keenan Allen leads the league in targets.

3. Broncos (9-8): Lock proves not horrible. Sutton/Jeudy/Patrick/Hamler do help him out.  Javonte Williams outrushes Melvin Gordon.

4. Raiders (5-12): Waller is good.  They have an anonymous team though.


AFC Playoffs
1. Chiefs
2. Titans
3. Ravens
4. Bills
5. Dolphins
6. Chargers
7. Steelers

Wild Card
Titans over Steelers - High scoring game, but the running game behind Henry pulls it out
Chargers over Ravens - More offensive weapons for Chargers
Bills over Dolphins - Not taking Tua over Allen

Divisional
Chiefs over Chargers - They'll be very familiar with each other.  Even if the Chargers manage to get a game from them in the regular season, going with Patty
Bills over Titans - A more complete team overall.

AFC Championship
Chiefs over Bills - Until Mahomes isn't a Chief, I have no reason to pick against them


AFC offensive player of the year: Patrick Mahomes
AFC defensive player of the year: TJ Watt
AFC offensive rookie of the year: Ja'Marr Chase
AFC defensive rookie of the year: Patrick Surtain

Fired coaches:  Jon Gruden (LV), David Culley (HOU) (Only his first year, but this franchise is doomed)

Chris

[webny99]

I've got a few hot takes, some of which I'm really hesitant to share because it will essentially guarantee they won't happen. Generally the only predictions that come true are the ones that you don't share with anyone.

In any case, I try not to read too much into the past when thinking about the future. Sure, it makes sense to look at the past for context, but I don't just assume things will be the same just because they are similar externally. There's always some surprises, some disappointments, and more change in general than you'd expect.

So with that in mind, here are three of my hottest takes for the 2021 NFL season:

-The Chiefs and Bucs will BOTH be first-round playoff exits
-Only ONE team from the AFC North will make the playoffs
-The Jaguars will make the playoffs

[Roadgeekteen]

Jaguars cut Tim Tebow

[Alps]

Okay, fine. Just records, no analyses (and not going game by game, so don't mind my addition):

AFC East:
* Bills 13-4
* Cheaters 11-6
* Dolphins 10-7
* Jets 6-11

AFC North:
* Browns 12-5
* Ravens 9-8
* Bengals 8-9
* Steelers 7-10

AFC South:
* Titans 10-7
* Jaguars 8-9
* Colts 6-11
* Texans 3-14

AFC West:
* Chiefs 14-3
* Chargers 10-7
* Broncos 8-8-1
* Raiders 6-10-1

[thspfc]

My 2021 NFC predictions . . .

NFC East

1. Cowboys (9-8): This might be wishful thinking, but there's absolutely no reason why this team can't get to 9 wins this season, and 9 wins will be good enough for first place in the division. Yes, the run defense is not very good, but Micah Parsons should help matters. The secondary will be much better than last season with the additions of Keanu Neal and Malik Hooker. So if the defense can simply be serviceable, Dak Prescott and the offense can get the Cowboys to the playoffs. Ezekiel Elliott is primed for a bounce-back season. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are both going to have huge seasons with Prescott back.

2. Giants (8-9): They made a lot of good moves in the offseason, but this is still a below average team with a below average quarterback and a below average head coach. Daniel Jones cannot be trusted with the game on the line, and neither can their defense. Their best player, Saquon Barkley, has had injury issues for the majority of his time in the league.

3. Washington (8-9): Dysfunctional organization with big question marks at quarterback. A tale as old as time. Outside of Terry McLaurin they don't have any great skill players. A great defensive front will only get you so far if your offense is terrible. I have them below the Giants because they are 0-4 against the Giants over the last two seasons.

4. Eagles (4-13): My money is on the Eagles being the least entertaining team to watch this season, because they have literally not a single player that will draw people to a TV. We'll find out if Jalen Hurts is the guy. If he's not, they'll use their shiny top 5 pick on a QB.



NFC North

1. Packers (13-4): Aaron Rodgers is back and it seems like there won't be any more animosity, until the 2022 offseason at least. This is, once again, a Super Bowl-caliber team that will dominate in the regular season. When they do lose it's because of bad offensive line play and stupid mistakes at the worst possible time.

2. Vikings (11-6): I expect the Vikings to bounce back this year. Kirk Cousins was, quietly, one of the best quarterbacks in the league down the stretch in 2020. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen might just be the second best receiving duo in the NFL this season, after Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. The defense is still suspect but it should be better than last season. During his time in Minnesota Mike Zimmer has earned a reputation of cooling his seat right back off when it seems to get hot, like he did in 2017 and 2019.

3. Bears (7-10): A very hard team to predict, as I could see the season going one of a few very different ways. It was a questionable offseason for the Bears. Their quarterback situation this season is unclear - will Andy Dalton start as long as he plays well? Is it predetermined that Justin Fields will take over at some point? Will Fields start right away? That uncertainty scares me. Their pass rush is still very good, as is their receiving core. But they have a frontloaded schedule and if they start poorly, Matt Nagy could get fired and teams that fire their coach mid-season rarely finish with more than 6 wins. I think Nagy will hold onto his job for at least the duration of the season.

4. Lions (4-13): Just not much to like about this team. First year head coach. The few great players that they do have are very young.



NFC South

1. Buccaneers (14-3): They're the most complete team in the league. Really not much to say. The weak division helps them out.

2. Falcons (6-11): They will have a great passing offense, and probably not much else. The run game will be below average. The defense will be below average. First year head coach. I have them being better than last year because they would have been 7-9 last year if they could consistently hold a 16+ point lead.

3. Saints (5-12): Had the worst offseason of any team in the league in terms of talent lost. Neither Taysom Hill nor Jameis Winston is a reliable replacement for Drew Brees, and a shell-of-his-former-self 2020 Drew Brees at that. They were gutted in free agency. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas (if/when he's healthy) will put points on the board, but not enough in most cases.

4. Panthers (4-13): Probably the most overrated team in the league headed into this season. Sam Darnold is not it. He's just not. Their defense will be terrible. They need Christian McCaffrey to stay healthy. They have a couple decent receivers and they might have a good coach.



NFC West

1. Rams (13-4): Seems like people are overthinking the Rams. They have one of the best defenses, if not the outright best. They have a great group of skill players. The Cam Akers injury doesn't scare me as much as it does other people, since it's obvious that Sean McVay's offense can work with the vast majority of capable running backs. The expectations are sky high for Matthew Stafford, but even if he doesn't meet them, keep in mind that this team went 10-6 last season with the mediocre at best Jared Goff.

2. Seahawks (11-6): Their tendency to always play down to the level of their competition will finally bite them this year. Russell Wilson will be great in September and October, then fall off significantly late in the season like he's done four of the past five seasons. The defense will be better than last year, but they now have quite possibly the league's most overrated player, Jamal Adams, locked into a huge contract.

3. Cardinals (10-7): Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins will have huge seasons in their second year together. AJ Green is a good addition to an already very good receiving core. Their secondary has a few good young players, though the loss of Patrick Peterson will hurt. The thing I don't like is the JJ Watt signing, that will turn out to be one of the worst free agent signings of the decade.

4. 49ers (7-10): The best injured reserve list of all time, except now there's a quarterback controversy. Woohoo!



NFC Playoffs
1. Buccaneers
2. Packers
3. Rams
4. Cowboys
5. Seahawks
6. Vikings
7. Cardinals

Wild Card
Packers beat Cardinals - Packers tend to turn it on going into the playoffs, so Rodgers will gash this Cards defense
Rams beat Vikings - Rams pass rush will give the Vikings major trouble, similar to what the 49ers did in the 2019 Divisional
Seahawks beat Cowboys - These two teams always play each other very close, but the Seahawks are the better team overall

Divisional
Buccaneers beat Seahawks - Bucs pass rush and run defense will be too much for the Seahawks to handle
Rams beat Packers - Somebody on the Packers will commit a stupid penalty at the worst time

NFC Championship
Buccaneers beat Rams - Comes down to the 7-time Super Bowl champion vs a guy playing in his first conference championship game


NFC offensive player of the year: DeAndre Hopkins
NFC defensive player of the year: Aaron Donald
NFC offensive rookie of the year: Kyle Pitts
NFC defensive rookie of the year: Jaycee Horn
Fired coaches: Matt Nagy (CHI)

[thspfc]

And my more specific predictions:

Super Bowl: Chiefs 41, Buccaneers 28
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Regular Season MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Biggest Blowout: Rams 45, Jaguars 7 in week 13: Rams defense will destroy the Jags young offense, and the Jags defense won't stop the Rams offense
Biggest Upset: Bengals over Packers in week 5: Packers have lost an out of conference road game in at least 11 straight seasons, and the Bengals are the kind of team that could pull off an upset over anyone (they beat the Titans and Steelers last year)
Game that is most likely to end in a tie: Broncos at Jaguars in week 2: there's usually one tie per season, and it's usually an early season game between two bad teams who have okay offenses and bad defenses. I think this one fits the bill. If I get this right, I win the AARoads Forum.

[CoreySamson]

My predictions:

AFC East:
1. Bills (14-3)
2. Dolphins (11-6)
3. Patriots (9-7-1)
4. Jets (2-15)

AFC North:
1. Browns (11-6)
2. Ravens (11-6)
3. Steelers (8-9)
4. Bengals (5-12)

AFC South:
1. Titans (12-5)
2. Colts (8-9)
3. Jaguars (7-10)
4. Texans (1-16)

AFC West:
1. Chiefs (15-2)
2. Chargers (11-6)
3. Broncos (6-11)
4. Raiders (6-11)

AFC Playoff Seeds:
1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Titans
4. Browns
5. Chargers
6. Ravens
7. Dolphins

AFC Championship:
Bills over Chiefs, 35-31


NFC East:
1. Cowboys (10-7)
2. Washington (8-9)
3. Giants (8-9)
4. Eagles (3-14)

NFC North:
1. Bears (10-7)
2. Packers (10-7)
3. Vikings (9-8)
4. Lions (2-15)

NFC South:
1. Buccaneers (13-4)
2. Saints (6-10-1)
3. Falcons (6-11)
4. Panthers (4-13)

NFC West:
1. Rams (16-1)
2. Cardinals (12-5)
3. 49ers (10-7)
4. Seahawks (9-8)

NFC Playoff Seeds:
1. Rams
2. Buccaneers
3. Cowboys
4. Bears
5. Cardinals
6. 49ers
7. Packers

NFC Championship:
Rams over Cardinals, 34-13

Super Bowl:
Rams over Bills, 30-21

HOT TAKES:
-Bears win NFC North
-Cardinals and Chargers surprise positively
-NFC West has no losing teams, with Seahawks in last place

[JayhawkCO]

My turn for NFC.

My 2021 NFC predictions . . .

NFC East

1. Washington (12-5): Ron Rivera will be on the short list of Coach of the Year candidates.  McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Antonio Gibson all make steps up.  Chase Young wins Defensive Player of the Year.

2. Cowboys (9-8): The long time strength of the Cowboys, the offensive line, is now not what it was.  Defense doesn't have many playmakers.  Dak is good and the skill players are good, but not enough to overcome the other obstacles, not least of which is Mike McCarthy.

3. Eagles (6-11): Hurts is okay, but eventually his low completion percentage might get him benched. No stars anywhere on the offensive or defensive side of the ball other than Devonta Smith.  He'll be fine.

4. Giants (4-13): Daniel Jones is not the answer.  They'll be in position to draft another QB next year.


NFC North

1. Packers (12-5): I feel like Aaron Rodgers will come back to earth a little bit.  Still a good team, but didn't add much to a team that couldn't get it done in the playoffs last year.

2. Vikings (11-6): Offense will be slightly improved, defense will be massively improved.  Patrick Peterson wins comeback player of the year.

3. Bears (6-11): They have Khalil Mack and Akiem Nicks.  Allen Robinson gets his stats no matter who the QB is.  Unfortunately all of that won't translate to too many wins.

4. Lions (3-14): Goff got cast aside by the Rams for a reason. When your starting WRs are Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman, I worry for you.


NFC South

1. Buccaneers (14-3): Agree with thspfc.  Very complete team.  No major deficiencies.

2. Panthers (8-9): I'll go out on a limb and say Darnold doesn't have a terrible year. They have lots of playmakers on offense.  I predict losing a lot of 34-31 type games.

3. Falcons (7-10): Losing Julio isn't as big of a deal as one might think since a) he's always hurt, and b) Kyle Pitts is a unicorn.  Running game might be a bit of a challenge and the defense isn't particular strong in any area.

4. Saints (5-12): I don't see any team with either Jameis Winston or Tysom Hill being able to win a lot of games.  Michael Thomas is a headcase and at some point goes on strike.


NFC West

1. Rams (12-5): Good offense.  Darrell Henderson can fill in for Akers just fine. Higbee leads the team in TDs. Aaron Donald is an absurd human being.

2. Seahawks (12-5): DK Metcalf is a cyborg.  Defense won't return to the Legion of Boom days, but should be better.

3. Cardinals (11-6): Had a good draft and their young players are growing up together.  I think Kyler makes a step forward this year.

4. 49ers (6-11): Defense won't be the same after losing Saleh to the Jets. Trey Lance will be starting by Week 5.



NFC Playoffs
1. Buccaneers
2. Packers
3. Rams
4. Football Team
5. Seahawks
6. Cardinals
7. Vikings

Wild Card
Vikings over Packers - Zimmer has Rodgers' number
Rams over Cardinals - Rams' defense contains Kyler
Seahawks over Football Team - Russ > Fitzy

Divisional
Buccaneers over Vikings - Sigh.  Brady beats my boys.
Seahawks over Rams - Russ gets cooking again.

NFC Championship
Seahawks over Buccaneers - Brady can't win 'em all, right?


NFC offensive player of the year: Russell Wilson
NFC defensive player of the year: Chase Young
NFC offensive rookie of the year: Kyle Pitts
NFC defensive rookie of the year: Zaven Collins
Fired coaches: Matt Nagy (CHI), Joe Judge (NYG)

Super Bowl: Chiefs over Seahawks - The Chiefs will learn from their mistakes from last year.

Chris

[Henry]

Something about this 17-game season doesn't sit well with me. For one thing, there'll be no more .500 records or any other record that adds up to 16 (4-12, 6-10, 8-8, 9-7, 11-5, 13-3, etc.), and for another, it's just the fact that an odd number of games will be played from now on. And FWIW, I'll never get used to this new thing at all; change for the sake of change is what it is. Surprisingly, I had no complaints when 31 teams existed, because I knew that a 32nd one would be added later on.

[Big John]

^^ 8-8-1 will bring a .500 record.

[thspfc]

What makes no sense to me is that people think that Jameis Winston will still put up insane stats if he cuts down on interceptions. No, the reason why he was putting up huge stats is because he was a) frequently taking the risks that led to interceptions, and b) constantly playing from behind because he threw interceptions which the other team turned into touchdowns. And now he's on the Saints who don't have anyone comparable to Mike Evans in terms of a deep ball receiver, Michael Thomas is good when he's healthy but he's not a deep ball guy.

So if Jameis gets his interceptions down to a reasonable amount, you can subtract ~100 yards and 1-2 touchdowns per game compared to his 2019 stats. That doesn't mean that he'll be bad, but he won't instantly turn into Aaron Rodgers.

[ET21]

Sony Michel is a Ram now, Pats get a 5th and 6th round pick

[CoreySamson]

Something completely bizarre about this year's preseason: only 3 AFC teams finished with a losing record, and only 2 teams in the NFC (most likely 3 if the Cardinals-Saints game had been played) finished with a winning record.