NFL (2024 Season)

[US 89]

Just had our first tie of the season, with neither Pittsburgh nor Detroit able to score in miserable weather in overtime.

That game was so bad it was good. Neither team deserved to win.

[thspfc]

For all of the idiocy around the NFL these days, it sure is entertaining on a week to week basis.

At the beginning of the season, a team going 0-16-1 was a joke that was tossed around. Now it's a serious possibility (though I expect the Lions to win at least once).

To my surprise I was almost dead on about the Bills/Jets game. Do me a favor and don't look at any of my other predictions. After a solid 44-22 run, I'm 4-6-1 so far this week.

[wanderer2575]

Just had our first tie of the season, with neither Pittsburgh nor Detroit able to score in miserable weather in overtime.

With Pittsburgh now 5-3-1, my dream of an 8-8-1 team is very much alive.

Lions' front office will tell us this is the Turnaround Point, and the sheeple will follow.  Don't miss out on tickets for the Thanksgiving Day game vs. the Bears!

[thspfc]

I would be betting on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl right now. The odds are not going to get any longer than this.

[webny99]

A few week 10 thoughts...

-Teams without a one-score win this season: Bills, Lions, and Texans 

-Washington's 19-play, 80-yard drive that took 10:26 of game clock and ended with a 4th down Gibson TD run to end the Buc's chances at a comeback was the most impressive drive of the season and it's not even close. You know everyone was waiting to say "they left too much time for Brady!" but the Bucs defense just could not get off the field.

-Cam Newton is back, but don't overlook that PJ Walker is 2-0 and has outscored opponents 51-10 in his two starts! 

-Preemptive eye roll at the "Chiefs are back!" narrative. That game said way more about the Raiders' incompetence on defense than it did about the Chiefs. The Raiders basically looked at everything that teams have done to stop the Chiefs this season and said "no thanks" and of course got steamrolled. Unbelievable.

[Henry]

At this point in the season, the AFC has much stiffer competition compared to the NFC. In the AFC North and AFC West, every team is at .500 or better, while in the NFC East and NFC North, the second-place team has a losing record. So this means...

I would be betting on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl right now. The odds are not going to get any longer than this.

...that prediction is anything but certain. The way things are going right now, the AFC is up for grabs, while in the NFC, the Buccaneeers are surprisingly the weakest of the four division leaders. Hell, even the second-place Rams, who are chasing the Cardinals in the West, have a better record than Tampa Bay.

[thspfc]

-Preemptive eye roll at the "Chiefs are back!" narrative. That game said way more about the Raiders' incompetence on defense than it did about the Chiefs. The Raiders basically looked at everything that teams have done to stop the Chiefs this season and said "no thanks" and of course got steamrolled. Unbelievable.

Sounds like somebody who left them for dead and is now just a little bit worried that they're not . . .

Something about the Chiefs feels different today. Something has felt different over the course of the last week, but it's now very different. Or, perhaps more accurately, something about the Chiefs feels familiar.

[webny99]

-Preemptive eye roll at the "Chiefs are back!" narrative. That game said way more about the Raiders' incompetence on defense than it did about the Chiefs. The Raiders basically looked at everything that teams have done to stop the Chiefs this season and said "no thanks" and of course got steamrolled. Unbelievable.

Sounds like somebody who left them for dead and is now just a little bit worried that they're not . . .

I don't think they're dead. I think they're a likely playoff team that's dangerous when they're clicking. My point is that the Raiders, unlike most/all of the Chiefs' previous 9 opponents, simply had no concept whatsoever of how to stop them.

[thspfc]

-Preemptive eye roll at the "Chiefs are back!" narrative. That game said way more about the Raiders' incompetence on defense than it did about the Chiefs. The Raiders basically looked at everything that teams have done to stop the Chiefs this season and said "no thanks" and of course got steamrolled. Unbelievable.

Sounds like somebody who left them for dead and is now just a little bit worried that they're not . . .

I don't think they're dead. I think they're a likely playoff team that's dangerous when they're clicking. My point is that the Raiders, unlike most/all of the Chiefs' previous 9 opponents, simply had no concept whatsoever of how to stop them.

The Browns, Ravens, Eagles, Football Team, and now Raiders have all been Chiefs-ed by the Chiefs offense. Subtract stupid turnovers off dropped passes from the equation, and Kansas City would have scored more than 40 points in all five of those games.

[Alps]

Just me or a lot more trick plays this year than past years?

[webny99]

After Monday night, Kyle Shanahan will officially be on the hot seat.

... except that Shanahan OWNS McVay, so he's safe for at least one more week. 

[webny99]

Just me or a lot more trick plays this year than past years?

Not just you, maybe part of the trend towards more aggressiveness in general?

[thspfc]

After Monday night, Kyle Shanahan will officially be on the hot seat.

... except that Shanahan OWNS McVay, so he's safe for at least one more week. 

Yeah that was another brutally bad pick by me.

[triplemultiplex]

Just me or a lot more trick plays this year than past years?

Not just you, maybe part of the trend towards more aggressiveness in general?

Certainly see more teams going for it on 4th down early in games.

[NWI_Irish96]

Just me or a lot more trick plays this year than past years?

Not just you, maybe part of the trend towards more aggressiveness in general?

Certainly see more teams going for it on 4th down early in games.

That's mostly a result of statistical models that show that punting is very often the worst option. I think you'll see less and less punting in the future.

[webny99]

Just me or a lot more trick plays this year than past years?

Not just you, maybe part of the trend towards more aggressiveness in general?

Certainly see more teams going for it on 4th down early in games.

That's mostly a result of statistical models that show that punting is very often the worst option. I think you'll see less and less punting in the future.

In certain situations, yes, especially on 4th and short in opponent territory.

But punting usually still makes sense on 4th and long in your own territory.

[webny99]

-Teams without a one-score win this season: Bills, Lions, and Texans 

I just can't get over how crazy this is.

[snowc]

-Teams without a one-score win this season: Bills, Lions, and Texans 

I just can't get over how crazy this is.

And a 4-5 team beating a 7-1 team! CAR and ARI expected to be a blowout against the Panthers but BOY I was Wrong! Panthers destroyed them! 

[thspfc]

Ravens 33, Bears 17
Packers 34, Vikings 27
Colts 23, Bills 17
Browns 41, Lions 19
Panthers 20, Washington 17
Texans 21, Titans 20
49ers 26, Jaguars 23
Dolphins 27, Jets 20
Saints 19, Eagles 10
Bengals 27, Raiders 24
Chiefs 38, Cowboys 24
Seahawks 24, Cardinals 19
Chargers 28, Steelers 17
Buccaneers 49, Giants 14

I got too confident last week, leading to some really bad misses. This week I'm going more conservative, except for picking the Texans in the upset of the year over the Titans. Tennessee has already lost to the Jets this season, and it seems like the best team in the NFL ranking (or even top 3) is a hot potato nowadays. Plus, the Titans are probably the most injured team in the league right now.

This is a classic get-right game for the Browns. But if they somehow lose, they're done. Season over.

Tampa will come out playing angry. It'll be the newest "on to Cincinnati"  game.

[Alps]

Ravens 33, Bears 17
Packers 34, Vikings 27
Colts 23, Bills 17
Browns 41, Lions 19
Panthers 20, Washington 17
Texans 21, Titans 20
49ers 26, Jaguars 23
Dolphins 27, Jets 20
Saints 19, Eagles 10
Bengals 27, Raiders 24
Chiefs 38, Cowboys 24
Seahawks 24, Cardinals 19
Chargers 28, Steelers 17
Buccaneers 49, Giants 14

I got too confident last week, leading to some really bad misses. This week I'm going more conservative, except for picking the Texans in the upset of the year over the Titans. Tennessee has already lost to the Jets this season, and it seems like the best team in the NFL ranking (or even top 3) is a hot potato nowadays. Plus, the Titans are probably the most injured team in the league right now.

This is a classic get-right game for the Browns. But if they somehow lose, they're done. Season over.

Tampa will come out playing angry. It'll be the newest "on to Cincinnati"  game.

You overestimated the Jets by about 20 points

[JayhawkCO]

Ravens 33, Bears 17
Packers 34, Vikings 27
Colts 23, Bills 17
Browns 41, Lions 19
Panthers 20, Washington 17
Texans 21, Titans 20
49ers 26, Jaguars 23
Dolphins 27, Jets 20
Saints 19, Eagles 10
Bengals 27, Raiders 24
Chiefs 38, Cowboys 24
Seahawks 24, Cardinals 19
Chargers 28, Steelers 17
Buccaneers 49, Giants 14

I got too confident last week, leading to some really bad misses. This week I'm going more conservative, except for picking the Texans in the upset of the year over the Titans. Tennessee has already lost to the Jets this season, and it seems like the best team in the NFL ranking (or even top 3) is a hot potato nowadays. Plus, the Titans are probably the most injured team in the league right now.

This is a classic get-right game for the Browns. But if they somehow lose, they're done. Season over.

Tampa will come out playing angry. It'll be the newest "on to Cincinnati"  game.

Gimme the Vikings, Bills, Football Team, Titans, Jaguars, Eagles, and Cardinals.

[webny99]

Colts 23, Bills 17
...

I got too confident last week, leading to some really bad misses. This week I'm going more conservative, except for picking the Texans in the upset of the year over the Titans. Tennessee has already lost to the Jets this season, and it seems like the best team in the NFL ranking (or even top 3) is a hot potato nowadays. Plus, the Titans are probably the most injured team in the league right now.

This is a classic get-right game for the Browns. But if they somehow lose, they're done. Season over.

Tampa will come out playing angry. It'll be the newest "on to Cincinnati"  game.

I disagree with your Bills-Colts pick, not because I think the Colts can't win, but because it seems highly improbable that the score will be identical to their final score last week. "Rock paper scissors" games like this, where each team has just played a common opponent, are always interesting, and both the Bills and Colts really need this game, so it should be a good one.

There's actually a lot of good games this week. Pretty much every matchup has some intrigue and some important playoff picture implications.

I am with you on the Titans. They VERY easily could have lost to the Saints between missed Saints extra points, a terrible roughing the passer call that voided a Tannehill INT, and the penalty on the 2pt conversion. Five straight wins over 2020 playoff teams is very impressive no doubt, but they did get really lucky in the Bills and Saints wins, and the Rams and Colts wins felt a little fluky as well with Stafford gifting them 14 points and Wentz throwing that bizarre pick that ended up being the reason that game went to OT.

Speaking of games decided on a failed 2pt conversion... I'm not so sure about the Bucs. Brady vs. the Giants obviously has some history, and looking at that history, including the 2pt win last year, it would certainly be a surprise if the Bucs put up 49.

[webny99]

Dolphins 27, Jets 20
...

You overestimated the Jets by about 20 points

Or maybe underestimated the Dolphins by about 20 points. The Jets have given up 175 points in the last 4 weeks, which is apparently the 2nd worst 4-game stretch in NFL history. For context, the Bills have only given up 135 points all season. Not the greatest look for a defensive head coach. Gulp.

[jeffandnicole]

Colts 23, Bills 17
...

I got too confident last week, leading to some really bad misses. This week I'm going more conservative, except for picking the Texans in the upset of the year over the Titans. Tennessee has already lost to the Jets this season, and it seems like the best team in the NFL ranking (or even top 3) is a hot potato nowadays. Plus, the Titans are probably the most injured team in the league right now.

This is a classic get-right game for the Browns. But if they somehow lose, they're done. Season over.

Tampa will come out playing angry. It'll be the newest "on to Cincinnati"  game.

I disagree with your Bills-Colts pick, not because I think the Colts can't win, but because it seems highly improbable that the score will be identical to their final score last week...

This is the same fallacy where someone doesn't think the correct answer on a test will appear 3 times in a row, or the same lottery number won't appear twice in a row.  Last week's score has absolutely no effect on this week's game.

[webny99]

I disagree with your Bills-Colts pick, not because I think the Colts can't win, but because it seems highly improbable that the score will be identical to their final score last week...

This is the same fallacy where someone doesn't think the correct answer on a test will appear 3 times in a row, or the same lottery number won't appear twice in a row.  Last week's score has absolutely no effect on this week's game.

Of course it doesn't... but also, when was the last time a team had the same final score two weeks in a row? There are a lot more potential game scores than there are answers on a multiple choice test. The odds of it happening have to be inestimably small even if there's no direct bearing of one on the other.