NFL (2024 Season)

[thspfc]

I'm knocking the Patriots off my Super Bowl contenders list. So now it looks like this:

1. Chiefs
2. Buccaneers
3. Packers/Rams/Cowboys, can't decide how to order those three

In my opinion, that's the quite obvious top five. All five of them won this week/are going to win this week by an average of 20-ish points. Stafford played his worst game of the year, and the Rams still, fairly comfortably, beat a not awful Vikings team. That's a sign of a well-rounded squad.

After them, the Cardinals hang on by a thread at #6. One more week of this tailspin and they're off.

[webny99]

More Week 16 thoughts...

-A lot of playoff clinching happening today, mostly in the NFC, where five spots are now sealed up (division winners plus Rams and Cardinals), leaving just two wild cards available. The AFC is still a mess, with the Chiefs locking up the AFC West but the other six spots likely to come down to Week 18.

-The Bengals SWEEPING the Ravens and Steelers by a combined 89 points is one of the most shocking things to happen this season.

-Vikings have tied the NFL record with 14 one-score games this season. Just unbelievable how it comes down to the wire week after week.

-I feel sick for Chargers fans (the few that exist). That loss to the Texans is in contention for upset of the year, but it is also just a terrible, terrible loss all around. Way worse even than the Cardinals loss to the Lions. That just cannot happen at this point in the season. Their playoff odds took possibly the sharpest single-week nosedive of any team all season. They're down to just 35% after being at 75% entering today, per FiveThirtyEight. Now they HAVE to win two tough division games to have any chance at all. Say what you want about Staley's coaching style, but I genuinely thought this team wasn't going to blow games like this anymore. Just unbelievable.

[webny99]

I'm knocking the Patriots off my Super Bowl contenders list. So now it looks like this:

1. Chiefs
2. Buccaneers
3. Packers/Rams/Cowboys, can't decide how to order those three

In my opinion, that's the quite obvious top five. All five of them won this week/are going to win this week by an average of 20-ish points. Stafford played his worst game of the year, and the Rams still, fairly comfortably, beat a not awful Vikings team. That's a sign of a well-rounded squad.

After them, the Cardinals hang on by a thread at #6. One more week of this tailspin and they're off.

I don't think five of the top six Super Bowl contenders can be from a single conference. The Chiefs just aren't that heavily favored in the AFC for no one else in the AFC to crack the top five, keeping in mind that all four of their losses have been in-conference.

The NFC is definitely a more top-heavy conference, but that's part of the point: that means at least two of your top five will not be playing in the conference championship, while at least one other AFC team will be playing.

[I-39]

I'm knocking the Patriots off my Super Bowl contenders list. So now it looks like this:

1. Chiefs
2. Buccaneers
3. Packers/Rams/Cowboys, can't decide how to order those three

In my opinion, that's the quite obvious top five. All five of them won this week/are going to win this week by an average of 20-ish points. Stafford played his worst game of the year, and the Rams still, fairly comfortably, beat a not awful Vikings team. That's a sign of a well-rounded squad.

After them, the Cardinals hang on by a thread at #6. One more week of this tailspin and they're off.

Considering the Packers barely beat the .500 Browns, I'd say they should be at the bottom of the list, if on there at all.

[Roadgeekteen]

Mac Jones showing why he's a rookie today.

[JayhawkCO]

Mac Jones showing why he's a rookie today.

Cuz he was drafted this year?

[triplemultiplex]

The Packers seem to be doing that thing they often do where they run out of steam late in the 3rd or early in the 4th where they could put a team away, but instead, string together a bunch of 3 and outs and leave the door open for teams to come back on them.  Exactly the kind of shit that bit them in the ass in the NFC Championship Game last winter.  That's the groundwork for an upset early in the playoffs.

[Max Rockatansky]

Mac Jones showing why he's a rookie today.

Cuz he was drafted this year?

It's still not a good look for the Bills to lose a game where the winning QB only had three pass attempts.

[epzik8]

I'm going to need plenty of popcorn to watch this feud between the Ravens' and Bengals' fanbases play out

[jeffandnicole]

I'm going to need plenty of popcorn to watch this feud between the Ravens' and Bengals' fanbases play out

Ravens fans don't really have much room to talk, at least as it comes to this year's games.

[thspfc]

The Packers seem to be doing that thing they often do where they run out of steam late in the 3rd or early in the 4th where they could put a team away, but instead, string together a bunch of 3 and outs and leave the door open for teams to come back on them.  Exactly the kind of shit that bit them in the ass in the NFC Championship Game last winter.  That's the groundwork for an upset early in the playoffs.

??? Were they not trailing for that entire game against the Bucs?

[webny99]

Mac Jones showing why he's a rookie today.

Cuz he was drafted this year?

It's still not a good look for the Bills to lose a game where the winning QB only had three pass attempts.

That has nothing to do with Mac Jones being a rookie, but OK, I'll play: it's still not a good look for a Bill Belichick defense to allow 7 red zone trips in 7 drives and force zero punts for the first time in his 474 career games. 

[jeffandnicole]

The Eagles, starting the season 2 - 5 with a 1st year head coach, rookie QB playing a full season, and several other new coaches, were destinated to get an early draft pick.  Now, they can clinch a Wildcard spot Sunday if...

A win vs. WTF, plus a Vikings loss, plus either a 49ers win or Saints loss.

They are also guaranteed a spot if they win their final two games, regardless of any other outcome.

It appears they can either secure the #5 seed if they win both their final 2 games and the Cardinals lose both their  final 2 games.  Otherwise, they secure the #7 seed as long as they clinch otherwise.  (Not sure if there's a possibility for a #6 seed; that may depend on all the Week 17 results.)

[Max Rockatansky]

Mac Jones showing why he's a rookie today.

Cuz he was drafted this year?

It's still not a good look for the Bills to lose a game where the winning QB only had three pass attempts.

That has nothing to do with Mac Jones being a rookie, but OK, I'll play: it's still not a good look for a Bill Belichick defense to allow 7 red zone trips in 7 drives and force zero punts for the first time in his 474 career games. 

Are the Bills generally not considered the superior of the two teams?  I know weather played a factor in the first game, but to lose to a team who had three pass attempts is pretty historically bad.

[webny99]

Mac Jones showing why he's a rookie today.

Cuz he was drafted this year?

It's still not a good look for the Bills to lose a game where the winning QB only had three pass attempts.

That has nothing to do with Mac Jones being a rookie, but OK, I'll play: it's still not a good look for a Bill Belichick defense to allow 7 red zone trips in 7 drives and force zero punts for the first time in his 474 career games. 

Are the Bills generally not considered the superior of the two teams?  I know weather played a factor in the first game, but to lose to a team who had three pass attempts is pretty historically bad.

Of course it's historically bad, but the Patriots still had only 240 yards and 14 points. It was the Bills' offense that cost them that game by fumbling and going 1 for 4 in the red zone. And yes, I do believe the Bills are a better team in normal weather conditions. But really I just don't know what any of this has to do with Mac Jones. Jones being drafted this year and the wind game being a bad look for the Bills is a total non-sequitur.

[Max Rockatansky]

Mac Jones showing why he's a rookie today.

Cuz he was drafted this year?

It's still not a good look for the Bills to lose a game where the winning QB only had three pass attempts.

That has nothing to do with Mac Jones being a rookie, but OK, I'll play: it's still not a good look for a Bill Belichick defense to allow 7 red zone trips in 7 drives and force zero punts for the first time in his 474 career games. 

Are the Bills generally not considered the superior of the two teams?  I know weather played a factor in the first game, but to lose to a team who had three pass attempts is pretty historically bad.

Of course it's historically bad, but the Patriots still had only 240 yards and 14 points. It was the Bills' offense that cost them that game by fumbling and going 1 for 4 in the red zone. And yes, I do believe the Bills are a better team in normal weather conditions. But really I just don't know what any of this has to do with Mac Jones. Jones being drafted this year and the wind game being a bad look for the Bills is a total non-sequitur.

It wouldn't be a total non-sequitur.  Had the Bills won that winnable game against a rookie quarterback in a wind storm they would be pretty much be insurmountable control of the AFC East.  As it stands right now they have the same record as the Patriots and the Division is very much still up for grabs. 

[webny99]

Are the Bills generally not considered the superior of the two teams?  I know weather played a factor in the first game, but to lose to a team who had three pass attempts is pretty historically bad.

Of course it's historically bad, but the Patriots still had only 240 yards and 14 points. It was the Bills' offense that cost them that game by fumbling and going 1 for 4 in the red zone. And yes, I do believe the Bills are a better team in normal weather conditions. But really I just don't know what any of this has to do with Mac Jones. Jones being drafted this year and the wind game being a bad look for the Bills is a total non-sequitur.

It wouldn't be a total non-sequitur.  Had the Bills won that winnable game against a rookie quarterback in a wind storm they would be pretty much be insurmountable control of the AFC East.  As it stands right now they have the same record as the Patriots and the Division is very much still up for grabs.

But the QB was a total non-factor because they had the lead all game and didn't have to pass. It could have been Tom Brady that threw three passes and it wouldn't have made any difference.

Now, the Bills do have the tiebreaker as it stands right now, so they will win the division if they win out. Sure, it would be nice to have that one game back, but they took care of business this week and are still in great position to win the division, so that's all you can really ask for in terms of putting the narrative of the previous game to bed.

[webny99]

A win vs. WTF

Not sure if that was intentional or not... although it may be appropriate given their performance against Dallas! 

[Max Rockatansky]

Are the Bills generally not considered the superior of the two teams?  I know weather played a factor in the first game, but to lose to a team who had three pass attempts is pretty historically bad.

Of course it's historically bad, but the Patriots still had only 240 yards and 14 points. It was the Bills' offense that cost them that game by fumbling and going 1 for 4 in the red zone. And yes, I do believe the Bills are a better team in normal weather conditions. But really I just don't know what any of this has to do with Mac Jones. Jones being drafted this year and the wind game being a bad look for the Bills is a total non-sequitur.

It wouldn't be a total non-sequitur.  Had the Bills won that winnable game against a rookie quarterback in a wind storm they would be pretty much be insurmountable control of the AFC East.  As it stands right now they have the same record as the Patriots and the Division is very much still up for grabs.

But the QB was a total non-factor because they had the lead all game and didn't have to pass. It could have been Tom Brady that threw three passes and it wouldn't have made any difference.

Now, the Bills do have the tiebreaker as it stands right now, so they will win the division if they win out. Sure, it would be nice to have that one game back, but they took care of business this week and are still in great position to win the division, so that's all you can really ask for in terms of putting the narrative of the previous game to bed.

If Tom Brady was on the Patriots during that game they weren't going with three passes.  Josh Allen had 30 pass attempts during that game and completed 15 if I recall correct.  Suffice to say the Patriots went with a one dimensional safe offense likely because of Mac Jone's inexperience in cold weather and the Bills still couldn't find a way to win.  The Bills probably will still win the division but it would be a lock otherwise.  Yeah sure, the Bills "probably"  will win the division but never really do know when an upset or major injury is going to happen in the NFL.  Games like that wind game tend have a way of defining regular seasons for good or bad.

[JayhawkCO]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

And now Arizona and New England are gone too.

I only have four teams I think can win it - Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Kansas City, or Indy.  I'll stick to my guns there. (I might reevaluate Tennessee if Henry comes back, but that's the only "honorable mention".)

[NWI_Irish96]

Are the Bills generally not considered the superior of the two teams?  I know weather played a factor in the first game, but to lose to a team who had three pass attempts is pretty historically bad.

Of course it's historically bad, but the Patriots still had only 240 yards and 14 points. It was the Bills' offense that cost them that game by fumbling and going 1 for 4 in the red zone. And yes, I do believe the Bills are a better team in normal weather conditions. But really I just don't know what any of this has to do with Mac Jones. Jones being drafted this year and the wind game being a bad look for the Bills is a total non-sequitur.

It wouldn't be a total non-sequitur.  Had the Bills won that winnable game against a rookie quarterback in a wind storm they would be pretty much be insurmountable control of the AFC East.  As it stands right now they have the same record as the Patriots and the Division is very much still up for grabs.

But the QB was a total non-factor because they had the lead all game and didn't have to pass. It could have been Tom Brady that threw three passes and it wouldn't have made any difference.

Now, the Bills do have the tiebreaker as it stands right now, so they will win the division if they win out. Sure, it would be nice to have that one game back, but they took care of business this week and are still in great position to win the division, so that's all you can really ask for in terms of putting the narrative of the previous game to bed.

If Tom Brady was on the Patriots during that game they weren't going with three passes.  Josh Allen had 30 pass attempts during that game and completed 15 if I recall correct.  Suffice to say the Patriots went with a one dimensional safe offense likely because of Mac Jone's inexperience in cold weather and the Bills still couldn't find a way to win.  The Bills probably will still win the division but it would be a lock otherwise.  Yeah sure, the Bills "probably"  will win the division but never really do know when an upset or major injury is going to happen in the NFL.  Games like that wind game tend have a way of defining regular seasons for good or bad.

Are you suggesting that Alabama being too chicken to schedule road games in the north might come back to haunt their QBs once they turn pro?

[Max Rockatansky]

Are the Bills generally not considered the superior of the two teams?  I know weather played a factor in the first game, but to lose to a team who had three pass attempts is pretty historically bad.

Of course it's historically bad, but the Patriots still had only 240 yards and 14 points. It was the Bills' offense that cost them that game by fumbling and going 1 for 4 in the red zone. And yes, I do believe the Bills are a better team in normal weather conditions. But really I just don't know what any of this has to do with Mac Jones. Jones being drafted this year and the wind game being a bad look for the Bills is a total non-sequitur.

It wouldn't be a total non-sequitur.  Had the Bills won that winnable game against a rookie quarterback in a wind storm they would be pretty much be insurmountable control of the AFC East.  As it stands right now they have the same record as the Patriots and the Division is very much still up for grabs.

But the QB was a total non-factor because they had the lead all game and didn't have to pass. It could have been Tom Brady that threw three passes and it wouldn't have made any difference.

Now, the Bills do have the tiebreaker as it stands right now, so they will win the division if they win out. Sure, it would be nice to have that one game back, but they took care of business this week and are still in great position to win the division, so that's all you can really ask for in terms of putting the narrative of the previous game to bed.

If Tom Brady was on the Patriots during that game they weren't going with three passes.  Josh Allen had 30 pass attempts during that game and completed 15 if I recall correct.  Suffice to say the Patriots went with a one dimensional safe offense likely because of Mac Jone's inexperience in cold weather and the Bills still couldn't find a way to win.  The Bills probably will still win the division but it would be a lock otherwise.  Yeah sure, the Bills "probably"  will win the division but never really do know when an upset or major injury is going to happen in the NFL.  Games like that wind game tend have a way of defining regular seasons for good or bad.

Are you suggesting that Alabama being too chicken to schedule road games in the north might come back to haunt their QBs once they turn pro?

I think that's what Bill Belichick was suggesting with the offensive play calling in that game. 

[JayhawkCO]

Are you suggesting that Alabama being too chicken to schedule road games in the north might come back to haunt their QBs once they turn pro?

Not commenting on their scheduling wussiness, but look at all these awesome Alabama QBs that have been starters in the NFL recently:

Mac Jones (jury still out, but certainly not great so far)
Tua Tagovailoa (jury still out, but certainly not great so far)
Jalen Hurts (jury still out, but certainly not great so far)
A.J. McCarron (lifetime backup)
Greg McElroy (one start, 185 yards, 1 INT, and a fumble while being sacked 11 times)
Brodie Croyle (six starts, all losses)

[NWI_Irish96]

Are you suggesting that Alabama being too chicken to schedule road games in the north might come back to haunt their QBs once they turn pro?

Not commenting on their scheduling wussiness, but look at all these awesome Alabama QBs that have been starters in the NFL recently:

Mac Jones (jury still out, but certainly not great so far)
Tua Tagovailoa (jury still out, but certainly not great so far)
Jalen Hurts (jury still out, but certainly not great so far)
A.J. McCarron (lifetime backup)
Greg McElroy (one start, 185 yards, 1 INT, and a fumble while being sacked 11 times)
Brodie Croyle (six starts, all losses)

If I'm a college coach of a school north of the 39th parallel trying to recruit against southern schools for elite QBs, I'm showing them the lack of northern locales on the schedule of southern teams and then showing them tape of the NE-BUF game.

[JayhawkCO]

If you are a fan of Nick Wright on Fox Sports, he's been saying all year that Belichick has zero trust in Jones.  Davis Mills has been the best rookie QB for sure, and one of the least hyped.  Fields from the Bears hasn't given me any reason to think his arm will be NFL caliber, Lance looked completely clueless in SF, and Lawrence will be good eventually, but it might take a couple of years to wipe the Urban Meyer stank off his career.