NFL (2024 Season)

[thspfc]

A third of the way through the season, here's how I would rank the teams 1-32:

Tier 1: Super Bowl contenders as of today
1. Bills
2. Eagles
3. Chiefs
Tier 2: could be Super Bowl contenders if things go right
4. Chargers
5. Vikings
6. Cowboys
7. Ravens
8. Rams
9. Colts
10. Buccaneers
Tier 3: decent chance to make the playoffs
11. Bengals
12. 49ers
13. Dolphins
14. Jets
15. Giants
16. Packers
Tier 4: outside chance to make the playoffs
17. Patriots
18. Titans
19. Broncos
20. Cardinals
21. Raiders
22. Jaguars
23. Saints
24. Falcons
25. Browns
26. Seahawks
27. Commanders
Tier 5: nope
28. Steelers
29. Lions
30. Texans
31. Bears
32. Panthers

Chargers at 4 feels wrong, but they at least have a winning record. Same cannot be said of a lot of similarly talented teams. The gap between #4 and #16 is very little.

I'm not as sold on the Giants and Jets as most. Two of the Giants' wins (Panthers and Bears) should just be thrown out the window. They lost to the Cowboys, scraped by a mediocre Titans team, and capitalized on a Ravens meltdown. Green Bay was their only impressive win IMO. The Jets had an ugly September, needed four interceptions to beat the Steelers, and beat the Dolphins who were on their third string QB. Again, the only game that impressed me was Green Bay.


With that, week 7 predictions:

Cardinals 26, Saints 20
Ravens 31, Browns 17
Buccaneers 21, Panthers 6
Bengals 31, Falcons 24
Cowboys 27, Lions 23
Jaguars 20, Giants 17
Packers 17, Commanders 13
Colts 30, Titans 20 (this one is going to be wrong)
Raiders 34, Texans 17
Broncos 23, Jets 16
Chiefs 24, 49ers 21
Chargers 28, Seahawks 20
Dolphins 24, Steelers 20
Patriots 27, Bears 10

I think this week will begin a stretch of relative normalcy after the chaos of the first third of this season. Between now and the end of November we'll find out who is good and who is not. Right now, beyond the first few teams and last few teams, we have no idea. 75% of the league is a mystery.

Hopefully my predictions stabilize as well . . . 45-46-1 is very bad. I think the Broncos pick up a big win off Zach Wilson turnovers.

[NWI_Irish96]

10-4 last week.

Cardinals
Ravens
Bucs
Bengals
Cowboys
Giants
Titans
Packers
Jets
Raiders
Chargers
Chiefs
Dolphins
Patriots

[webny99]

A third of the way through the season, here's how I would rank the teams 1-32:

Hard to argue with anything here since it's so murky outside a clear top three and bottom three (or maybe four or five). I'd have the Titans higher (sadly, since I forked them), and the Colts lower (even though they looked good last week, but who knows what a win against the Jaguars means). For comparison, here's FiveThirtyEight's rankings:



And here's the "official" NFL power rankings: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-power-rankings-week-7-2022-nfl-season

As proof of the murkiness beyond 1-3, everyone seems to have a different team at #4... I think I'd actually go with the Cowboys if Dak returns and returns to form? but I can see the argument for Vikings or Chargers. Bucs wouldn't be crazy either, but they're 3-3 and the vibes aren't great. I'd have them much lower personally.

I'm not as sold on the Giants and Jets as most. Two of the Giants' wins (Panthers and Bears) should just be thrown out the window. They lost to the Cowboys, scraped by a mediocre Titans team, and capitalized on a Ravens meltdown. Green Bay was their only impressive win IMO. The Jets had an ugly September, needed four interceptions to beat the Steelers, and beat the Dolphins who were on their third string QB. Again, the only game that impressed me was Green Bay.

At a certain point, maybe that says more about the Packers than their opponent? I'm interested to see what happens this week against the Commanders coming off the first losing streak of the Matt LaFleur era. Looking at their schedule, I see a bunch of really tough games coming up too. It's hard to see them going on a long winning streak to take the division, or even get above .500.

[jlam]

9-5 last week.

Saints 14, Cardinals 24
Falcons 20, Bengals 27
Lions 12, Cowboys 27
Colts 28, Titans 24
Commanders 23, Packers 31
Buccaneers 22, Panthers 17
Giants 16, Jaguars 17
Browns 13, Ravens 29
Jets 14, Broncos 17
Texans 16, Raiders 21
Seahawks 23, Chargers 26
Chiefs 29, 49ers 30
Steelers 15, Dolphins 20
Bears 10, Patriots 24


I'll  fork the Broncos and Cardinals. They simply don't look like playoff teams.

Falcons
Texans
Jets
Giants
Bears
Lions
Raiders
Steelers
Seahawks
Panthers
Commanders
Saints
Cardinals
Broncos

14 on the year.

[JayhawkCO]

Cardinals over Saints
Giants over Jags
Dolphins over Steelers
Bengals over Falcons
Lions over Cowboys
Titans over Colts
Commies over Packers
Bucs over Panthers
Ravens over Browns
Jets over Broncos
Raiders over Texans
Chargers over Seahawks
Chiefs over Niners
Patriots over Bears

[JayhawkCO]

Jets over Broncos

I just read that Russ is a game time decision. If he doesn't play, I might change my mind to the Broncos. 

[jgb191]

My Texans have only lost one game (out of six) at Oakland all-time, and their only loss was during the Bush Administration.  Now that the scene has shifted cities, let's see if the favorable record continues in Las Vegas on Sunday.

[NWI_Irish96]

The Colts have been 0-0-1, 1-1-1, 2-2-1 and are now 3-3-1.

[Max Rockatansky]

Jets over Broncos

I just read that Russ is a game time decision. If he doesn't play, I might change my mind to the Broncos. 

In other Russel Wilson news the Dangerwich was dropped by Subway:

https://news.yahoo.com/subway-cuts-russell-wilsons-widely-204557254.html

[thspfc]

Colts 30, Titans 20 (this one is going to be wrong)

Count it.

I'm so done with the AFC South. Joke division. The only team I think is worth anything has gone 1-3-1 against their division opponents. Tennessee is fake.

Not super impressed with the Cowboys today, but it's only Dak's first game back. Lions turned it over 5 times. Bad teams find a way to lose games, and sometimes all you have to do is not lose it back.

Very not convinced by the Giants. Their schedule is softer than a pillow for the next few weeks, but it gets tougher down the stretch. Cowboys, Eagles twice, Commanders twice, Vikings, Colts. I'll give them no better than 2-5 over those 7 games, which might still get them in the playoffs, but they won't go anywhere.

[thspfc]

Wilson is part of the problem but clearly not the whole problem, or even the majority of it. Gotta feel bad for that Broncos defense. They've been lights out all season, only let one team hit 20 points, and yet they're 2-5.

Like a broken record, I still think things will get better in Denver. But if next week is another L, I'll have little choice but to cut my losses and give them the fork.

I'm not losing belief in Tampa just yet. Remember, one year ago tomorrow, the Chiefs lost 27-3 to the Titans and dropped to 3-4. They proceeded to win 8 straight and 11 of their last 13.

Josh Jacobs has been HUGE for me in fantasy. Averaging nearly 35 points/game since week 4. One of the best three game stretches ever by a running back.

[JayhawkCO]

Commies over Packers

Proud of this one at least.

[wanderer2575]

Jets over Broncos

I just read that Russ is a game time decision. If he doesn't play, I might change my mind to the Broncos. 

In other Russel Wilson news the Dangerwich was dropped by Subway:

https://news.yahoo.com/subway-cuts-russell-wilsons-widely-204557254.html

Fine by me, and I don't even know the backstory.  Any company or ad agency that thinks I'm going to spend my money there because of who appears in its TV commercials is sadly mistaken.

[webny99]

I'm getting pretty good at predicting upsets, but not sharing the prediction anywhere. So, no credit for this, but I did believe the Panthers would beat the Bucs. 

I'm so done with the AFC South. Joke division. The only team I think is worth anything has gone 1-3-1 against their division opponents. Tennessee is fake.

The NFC South is not much better, maybe even worse. I still think there's three teams that could win either division, with the Texans and Panthers being the exceptions.

Very not convinced by the Giants. Their schedule is softer than a pillow for the next few weeks, but it gets tougher down the stretch. Cowboys, Eagles twice, Commanders twice, Vikings, Colts. I'll give them no better than 2-5 over those 7 games, which might still get them in the playoffs, but they won't go anywhere.

I think they could easily sweep the Commanders. I'll say 3-4 in that stretch. Of course they're not a legit contender, but in the increasingly messy stew that is the middle of the NFL, there's more close games, and that means coaching matters more. The Giants have been really impressive in the fourth quarter and have shown for weeks now that they can come back and close games. They were "due" for a close loss as much as the Jags were "due" for a close win today, but there's a factor you can't really measure when it comes to closing out games, and the Giants clearly have it while the Jaguars clearly don't. I think the Jags are a more talented team (they still have a positive point differential on the season!!!) but the inability to close out games is the difference between 2-5 and 6-1, and a big part of that is on coaching.

[NWI_Irish96]

Fun semi-road-related Super Bowl Trivia:
(all distances are driving distance via fastest route as provided by Google Maps)

Closest distance between home stadiums of Super Bowl participants: 181 miles, Super Bowl XLI, Colts-Bears

Closest possible distance between home stadiums of Super Bowl participants: 0 miles, Giants-Jets or Rams-Chargers
Closest possible nonzero distance between home stadiums of Super Bowl participants: 33 miles, Commanders-Ravens

Longest distance between home stadiums of Super Bowl participants: 3040 miles, Super Bowl XIX, 49ers-Dolphins

Longest possible distance between home stadiums of Super Bowl participants: 3285 miles, Seahawks-Dolphins

[jeffandnicole]

Jets over Broncos

I just read that Russ is a game time decision. If he doesn't play, I might change my mind to the Broncos. 

In other Russel Wilson news the Dangerwich was dropped by Subway:

https://news.yahoo.com/subway-cuts-russell-wilsons-widely-204557254.html

Fine by me, and I don't even know the backstory.  Any company or ad agency that thinks I'm going to spend my money there because of who appears in its TV commercials is sadly mistaken.

Maybe not personally you, but companies use celebs because it works in bringing in customers.

[Max Rockatansky]

Jets over Broncos

I just read that Russ is a game time decision. If he doesn't play, I might change my mind to the Broncos. 

In other Russel Wilson news the Dangerwich was dropped by Subway:

https://news.yahoo.com/subway-cuts-russell-wilsons-widely-204557254.html

Fine by me, and I don't even know the backstory.  Any company or ad agency that thinks I'm going to spend my money there because of who appears in its TV commercials is sadly mistaken.

Maybe not personally you, but companies use celebs because it works in bringing in customers.

Somehow I think the "Dangerwich"  just wasn't working as an advertisement vehicle.

My understanding is that the Dangerwich contained the following ingredients:

-  pepperoni
-  salami
-  black forest ham
-  provolone cheese
-  bacon
-  Italian Herbs
-  Cheese bread
-  lettuce
-  green peppers
-  tomatoes
-  banana peppers
-  yellow mustard
-  mayo

I fail to see where the "danger"  comes into the equation, maybe someone had a food allergy?  A sandwich of danger should IMO at least have one actual exotic ingredient.

[jeffandnicole]

Jets over Broncos

I just read that Russ is a game time decision. If he doesn't play, I might change my mind to the Broncos. 

In other Russel Wilson news the Dangerwich was dropped by Subway:

https://news.yahoo.com/subway-cuts-russell-wilsons-widely-204557254.html

Fine by me, and I don't even know the backstory.  Any company or ad agency that thinks I'm going to spend my money there because of who appears in its TV commercials is sadly mistaken.

Maybe not personally you, but companies use celebs because it works in bringing in customers.

Somehow I think the "Dangerwich"  just wasn't working as an advertisement vehicle.

My understanding is that the Dangerwich contained the following ingredients:

-  pepperoni
-  salami
-  black forest ham
-  provolone cheese
-  bacon
-  Italian Herbs
-  Cheese bread
-  lettuce
-  green peppers
-  tomatoes
-  banana peppers
-  yellow mustard
-  mayo

I fail to see where the "danger"  comes into the equation, maybe someone had a food allergy?  A sandwich of danger should IMO at least have one actual exotic ingredient.

Apparently the sandwich they had for the Jaguars was dropped also.

[webny99]

I fail to see where the "danger"  comes into the equation, maybe someone had a food allergy?  A sandwich of danger should IMO at least have one actual exotic ingredient.

I agree, it is oddly named No surprise here, but it was more about using Wilson himself as a promotion than the actual sandwich.

On the other hand, with such a long list of ingredients, there's bound to be something on there that someone doesn't like. For me, it's mustard, and to a lesser extent salami and pepperoni. With that many ingredients, most people are going to either avoid it or customize it. That doesn't sound like a great promotion, so I'm not at all surprised it's being dropped.

[webny99]

Hmm . . . I was planning on not being able to go over 18, and I thought that went without saying. But it might be kinda interesting.

If we decide we're okay with more than 18, I think there should be a rule that the number of extra teams on your list has to be the same as or larger than the number of teams on your list that have clinched a playoff berth at all times. That is to say, if you're going to fork a 19th team, you have to do it before any of your forked teams clinch a playoff berth. If you're going to fork a 20th, you have to do it when at most one team on your list has clinched.

What does everyone think?

I thought so too, otherwise you could fork all 32 and guarantee 18 correct, which kind of defeats the purpose. Being right is just as important a component of the game as being aggressive, so allowing extras would be sort of like a reward for being wrong. In other words, the only reason you would need to fork more than 18 would be if you were wrong about some of your forks. But everyone is going to be wrong about some, that's just inevitable. That's why it's part of the strategy of the game to be aggressive, but not too aggressive (IMO).

Now I'm starting to question the strong stand that I took here 

Mostly kidding about that, but in all seriousness, I am going to complete my NFC forks by forking the Bucs and Packers. That means my NFC playoff field is officially SET and it will be (in rough order of what I think the seeds will be) Eagles, Vikings, 49ers, Saints (oof), Cowboys, Rams, and Cardinals (yeah, I shouldn't have forked the Giants, but too late now).

AFC incoming... is the deadline for 13 points this Thursday, or next? I'd like to wait until after Broncos-Jaguars even though I'm probably going to end up forking both.

[thspfc]

Hmm . . . I was planning on not being able to go over 18, and I thought that went without saying. But it might be kinda interesting.

If we decide we're okay with more than 18, I think there should be a rule that the number of extra teams on your list has to be the same as or larger than the number of teams on your list that have clinched a playoff berth at all times. That is to say, if you're going to fork a 19th team, you have to do it before any of your forked teams clinch a playoff berth. If you're going to fork a 20th, you have to do it when at most one team on your list has clinched.

What does everyone think?

I thought so too, otherwise you could fork all 32 and guarantee 18 correct, which kind of defeats the purpose. Being right is just as important a component of the game as being aggressive, so allowing extras would be sort of like a reward for being wrong. In other words, the only reason you would need to fork more than 18 would be if you were wrong about some of your forks. But everyone is going to be wrong about some, that's just inevitable. That's why it's part of the strategy of the game to be aggressive, but not too aggressive (IMO).

Now I'm starting to question the strong stand that I took here 

Mostly kidding about that, but in all seriousness, I am going to complete my NFC forks by forking the Bucs and Packers. That means my NFC playoff field is officially SET and it will be (in rough order of what I think the seeds will be) Eagles, Vikings, 49ers, Saints (oof), Cowboys, Rams, and Cardinals (yeah, I shouldn't have forked the Giants, but too late now).

AFC incoming... is the deadline for 13 points this Thursday, or next? I'd like to wait until after Broncos-Jaguars even though I'm probably going to end up forking both.

Next Thursday is the deadline.

Packers and Bucs, but not Saints? Bold strategy, Cotton.

[webny99]

Next Thursday is the deadline.

Packers and Bucs, but not Saints? Bold strategy, Cotton.

Got it.

Probably should have forked the Saints and kept the Falcons, but I'm out on the Bucs either way so I have to take what's left. 

[Max Rockatansky]

I fail to see where the "danger"  comes into the equation, maybe someone had a food allergy?  A sandwich of danger should IMO at least have one actual exotic ingredient.

I agree, it is oddly named No surprise here, but it was more about using Wilson himself as a promotion than the actual sandwich.

On the other hand, with such a long list of ingredients, there's bound to be something on there that someone doesn't like. For me, it's mustard, and to a lesser extent salami and pepperoni. With that many ingredients, most people are going to either avoid it or customize it. That doesn't sound like a great promotion, so I'm not at all surprised it's being dropped.

I thought about what would add "danger"  to the Dangerwich.  Pour three servings of Jalepenos into the base sandwich, problem solved and danger added.

[jlam]

Updated fork list:

Falcons
Texans
Jets
Giants
Bears
Lions
Raiders
Steelers
Seahawks
Panthers
Commanders
Saints
Cardinals
Broncos
Jaguars

Just the Jags for now as an addition. Three more by the end of the season.

[thspfc]

Apparently the Colts are benching Matt Ryan, which seems like a glaring mistake.