NFL (2024 Season)

[thspfc]

Today is November 1 so I think it's a good time to remember that the last two Super Bowl champions were terrible in November, and each of the last four had a losing streak of 2+ games at some point in the season.

Whoever ends up winning it all is more than likely going to lose multiple games over the next few months, possibly in a row, after which everyone is going to leave them for dead. At this point in the year the Super Bowl favorites in the eyes of fans are just the teams that won most recently.

I'm gonna fork the Browns anyways despite the impressive win last night.

[thspfc]

Eagles 35, Texans 14
Chargers 34, Falcons 16
Bills 30, Jets 14
Patriots 26, Colts 13
Lions 31, Packers 26
Vikings 27, Commanders 20
Bengals 23, Panthers 17
Jaguars 28, Raiders 13
Dolphins 28, Bears 21
Cardinals 20, Seahawks 19
Buccaneers 17, Rams 12
Chiefs 38, Titans 13
Ravens 20, Saints 10

Excited for another .500 week!

[NWI_Irish96]

8-7 last week. Was too high on the NJ teams I guess.

Eagles
Chargers
Dolphins
Bengals
Packers
Jaguars
Colts
Bills
Vikings
Seahawks
Rams
Chiefs
Ravens

[JayhawkCO]

A gross 7-8 last week.

Eagles over Texans
Vikings over Commies
Raiders over Jaguars
Falcons over Chargers
Bears over Dolphins
Bengals over Panthers
Lions over Packers
Patriots over Colts
Bills over Jets
Seahawks over Cardinals
Rams over Bucs
Chiefs over Titans
Saints over Ravens

[NWI_Irish96]

Bears over Dolphins

Bears traded away their 2 best defensive players, and while Fields has improved a lot I don't think he can win a shootout.

[JayhawkCO]

Bears over Dolphins

Bears traded away their 2 best defensive players, and while Fields has improved a lot I don't think he can win a shootout.

Dolphins defense has sucked recently. Gotta pick a random upset in there that no one sees coming. I think mine this week are the Bears and the Saints.

[jlam]

8-7 last week.

Eagles 31, Texans 17
Chargers 27, Falcons 24
Dolphins 23, Bears 19
Panthers 20, Bengals 26
Packers 28, Lions 26
Colts 17, Patriots 23
Bills 29, Jets 20
Vikings 22, Commanders 20
Raiders 28, Jaguars 27
Seahawks 28, Cardinals 31
Rams 17, Buccaneers 20
Titans 16, Chiefs 28
Ravens 21, Saints 24

[webny99]

Bears over Dolphins

Bears traded away their 2 best defensive players, and while Fields has improved a lot I don't think he can win a shootout.

Dare I say something positive about the Bears, I think it's smart to commit to a rebuild on defense while also adding a weapon for Fields. Give him and the offense a real chance to develop and be competitive instead of constantly relying on the defense.

[Alps]

Eagles 35, Texans 14
Chargers 34, Falcons 16
Bills 30, Jets 14
Patriots 26, Colts 13
Lions 31, Packers 26
Vikings 27, Commanders 20
Bengals 23, Panthers 17
Jaguars 28, Raiders 13
Dolphins 28, Bears 21
Cardinals 20, Seahawks 19
Buccaneers 17, Rams 12
Chiefs 38, Titans 13
Ravens 20, Saints 10

Excited for another .500 week!

*Bills 30, Jets -3

[jgb191]

Eagles offense was incredibly impressive at Reliant/NRG Stadium tonight putting up four TDs against a stellar and inspired Texans defense, I vote Jalen Hurts for offensive player of the year for sure.  My Texans as usual had a chance to win (as they had most games this year) in the second half, but too many self-inflicted turnovers on offense denied the Texans from handing the Eagles their first loss of the season.

[1995hoo]

Longtime Redskins stalwart Dave Butz has died at 72. I remember how the cameras always zoomed in on his severely scratched helmet. Knowing what we know now, I sure hope he wasn't suffering from CTE or similar. RIP.

[thspfc]

Eagles 35, Texans 14
Chargers 20, Falcons 16
Bills 30, Jets 14
Patriots 26, Colts 13
Lions 31, Packers 26
Vikings 27, Commanders 20
Bengals 23, Panthers 17
Jaguars 28, Raiders 13
Dolphins 28, Bears 21
Cardinals 20, Seahawks 19
Buccaneers 17, Rams 12
Chiefs 38, Titans 13
Ravens 20, Saints 10

Excited for another .500 week!

Edited the Chargers/Falcons a little bit because the Chargers have basically nobody playing WR.

[amroad17]

Longtime Redskins stalwart Dave Butz has died at 72. I remember how the cameras always zoomed in on his severely scratched helmet. Knowing what we know now, I sure hope he wasn't suffering from CTE or similar. RIP.

Dave Butz was a gentle giant--except for opponents and opposing QB's.  He was also good with quips, such as, "I missed a touchdown by inches.  At least Walter Payton didn't catch me, but the opposing center did." and when trying to recover a fumble that he didn't retrieve, "I barely touched it.  I thought footballs weighed more than that."

Also, one of the greatest punters of all-time, Ray Guy, also passed away at the age of 72 from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.  He was the first punter to be drafted in the first round with Oakland taking him with the 23rd pick of the 1973 draft.  He is in both the College and Pro Football Hall of Fames and was named the punter on both the 75th and 100th NFL anniversary teams.  He is the punter in which the term "hang time" was associated with.  He also has an award named after him, the Ray Guy Award which is awarded to the nation's best collegiate punter.

RIP to both Dave Butz (#65) and Ray Guy (#8)--two players I enjoyed watching in my younger days.

[thspfc]

Eagles 35, Texans 14
Chargers 20, Falcons 16
Bills 30, Jets 14
Patriots 26, Colts 13
Lions 31, Packers 26
Vikings 27, Commanders 20
Bengals 23, Panthers 17
Jaguars 28, Raiders 13
Dolphins 28, Bears 21
Cardinals 20, Seahawks 19
Buccaneers 17, Rams 12
Chiefs 38, Titans 13
Ravens 20, Saints 10

Excited for another .500 week!

Edited the Chargers/Falcons a little bit because the Chargers have basically nobody playing WR.

Apparently I'm smart this week. 8-1 so far with the 1 being a pretty tough one to predict.

If Aaron Rodgers is benched tomorrow I wouldn't say it's totally unjustified. If they don't turn it around starting next week, might as well see what Love has to offer.

Big one in Tampa this afternoon. I'd say it's the most important game of the season thus far. I think the winner will make the playoffs and the loser probably won't.

[thspfc]

That 4th quarter was one of the great Brady moments ever IMO. That team was lost on offense. Couldn't run for anything. Receivers looked like they put $50 on the Rams moneyline. And Brady leads them on three long 4th quarter drives, including the game winning TD.

If it was Rodgers who threw that dropped pass to Miller on the second to last drive? Ball game, and Miller wouldn't get another target for a month. But Brady went back to him twice on the last drive, and it paid off.

Tampa now leads the division at 4-5. If they go on a run, that will be the moment that started it.

[webny99]

One of the great Brady moments?  The last Brady moment, maybe. There's zero reason to think the Bucs are going to go on a run here. That was much more of a gag by the Rams (coaching staff included) than anything that changes how I view the Bucs.

[thspfc]

One of the great Brady moments?  The last Brady moment, maybe. There's zero reason to think the Bucs are going to go on a run here. That was much more of a gag by the Rams (coaching staff included) than anything that changes how I view the Bucs.

IIRC, this was more or less your exact response to the Chiefs' blowout win over the Raiders that kickstarted their big run last year (which included knocking the Bills out of the playoffs). The Bills part probably won't happen, but you get my point.

-Preemptive eye roll at the "Chiefs are back!" narrative. That game said way more about the Raiders' incompetence on defense than it did about the Chiefs. The Raiders basically looked at everything that teams have done to stop the Chiefs this season and said "no thanks" and of course got steamrolled. Unbelievable.

[webny99]

Weighing in on the NFC North...

This Packers season has serious late career Favre vibes. I wouldn't be surprised if we do see Jordan Love this season. But more importantly, the Vikings are basically a lock to win the division. With a 4-1/2 game lead, their division games are the only remaining games that matter (at least in the division race - obviously not for seeding). Sweeping the division would get them to 10 wins and give each opponent their 7th loss. With the tiebreakers, they'd clinch the division no matter what else happens - even if they lost all their non-division games and one of the other teams managed to win out.

Per FiveThirtyEight, they're now the heaviest division favorite in the league with a 98.4% chance to win it.  Not sure what the record is for earliest point in the season that a division could be clinched, but the Vikings may be in contention to break the record. If they somehow found a way to blow it, it would be worse than 28-3. Barring that, there will be a playoff game in Minneapolis for the first time since Minneapolis Miracle.

[webny99]

IIRC, this was more or less your exact response to the Chiefs' blowout win over the Raiders that kickstarted their big run last year (which included knocking the Bills out of the playoffs). The Bills part probably won't happen, but you get my point.

-Preemptive eye roll at the "Chiefs are back!" narrative. That game said way more about the Raiders' incompetence on defense than it did about the Chiefs. The Raiders basically looked at everything that teams have done to stop the Chiefs this season and said "no thanks" and of course got steamrolled. Unbelievable.

1. This is why I'm trying to refrain from in-season commentary this season. It's too tempting to overreact, and/or try and will things into existence only to be let down 95% of the time. That was not a great take in terms of framing it as "the Chiefs aren't back", but still accurate as pertains to the Raiders.

2. I have no idea how that relates to my post about the Bucs. So... here I go with more commentary...   

The 2021 Chiefs had 26-year old Patrick Mahomes with a great roster and a top-5 coach of all time. Sure, they had to figure things out last season, but at no point were they in serious danger of missing the playoffs, and at no point did I believe they were not a Super Bowl contender. 
The 2022 Bucs have the 45-year old ghost of Tom Brady who's afraid of taking hits due to his age and a bad O-line; an aging roster; a first-year coach (after questionably ousting the coach they won the SB with); their season high in points is 22 outside of a blowout loss and they've averaged 18 points per game; they haven't looked like a good team since Week 1 and could easily be 2-7 right now; they're a coin-flip to make the playoffs and may make it with a losing record in a terrible division; they're at best the 5th-best team in the NFC right now, and look nothing like a true Super Bowl contender. That sounds nothing at all like last years Chiefs.

So... I recognize that the ghost of Tom Brady had another comeback win, but a single game-winning touchdown drive after being a field goal offense for half a season means almost nothing in the context of Brady's career. Not only that, the game was only close because they were playing another inept offense, they only scored 16 points and it was a dreadful offensive performance overall that did not inspire any confidence they can return to scoring 30+ points per game. The win is highly unlikely to change the trajectory of their season.

[thspfc]

IIRC, this was more or less your exact response to the Chiefs' blowout win over the Raiders that kickstarted their big run last year (which included knocking the Bills out of the playoffs). The Bills part probably won't happen, but you get my point.

-Preemptive eye roll at the "Chiefs are back!" narrative. That game said way more about the Raiders' incompetence on defense than it did about the Chiefs. The Raiders basically looked at everything that teams have done to stop the Chiefs this season and said "no thanks" and of course got steamrolled. Unbelievable.

1. This is why I'm trying to refrain from in-season commentary this season. It's too tempting to overreact, and/or try and will things into existence only to be let down 95% of the time. That was not a great take in terms of framing it as "the Chiefs aren't back", but still accurate as pertains to the Raiders.

I actually agreed (and still do) that the Raiders played the Chiefs the wrong way defensively. What I took issue with was 1) using that to throw out the success of the Chiefs defense in both that game and their second meeting, and 2) acting like those were the only two games to that point that the Chiefs were successful offensively - they had games of 33, 35, 42, and 31 points earlier in the season. As well as 34, 36, 31, 28, 42, and 42 afterwards, which is neither here nor there but it certainly goes to show that they were successful against teams other than the Raiders.

2. I have no idea how that relates to my post about the Bucs. So... here I go with more commentary...   

Focusing overwhelmingly on the mistakes made by the opposing team rather than the plays made by the winning team. It was both.

The 2021 Chiefs had 26-year old Patrick Mahomes with a great roster and a top-5 coach of all time. Sure, they had to figure things out last season, but at no point were they in serious danger of missing the playoffs, and at no point did I believe they were not a Super Bowl contender.

Based on that post I have a hard time believing that.

The 2022 Bucs have the 45-year old ghost of Tom Brady

You mean the one who leads the league in completions, attempts, and yards, has thrown ONE pick, and is on pace for the fewest INTs per pass attempt in a single season in NFL history?

who's afraid of taking hits due to his age and a bad O-line;

This is true and it shows in his play. He's also lost some of his pocket mobility, which is leading to more sacks and throwaways. To say that Brady has not declined at all would be ridiculous; it's been slow but sure since at least 2018. He's still good though.

could easily be 2-7 right now;

Non-argument and you know it because they could just as easily be 7-2.

they're a coin-flip to make the playoffs

538 has them at 61%. And that doesn't account for any emotional boost today's win provided, which I think will matter.

they're at best the 5th-best team in the NFC right now

I might even put them lower than that as of today, but "who are the best teams today" and "who has the best chances to make a run late in the season" are two different questions.

and look nothing like a true Super Bowl contender

Neither did the Chiefs until week 10.

a field goal offense for half a season

That means they're getting inside the 30. Obviously they have to do better from there but that's an easier problem to fix than rarely getting that far.

another inept offense

That's like half the league this year.

The win is highly unlikely to change the trajectory of their season.

One game by itself never changes the trajectory of any team's season. What I said was if they start winning more games, this will be looked back upon as the starting point.

[JayhawkCO]

Apparently I'm smart this week. 8-1 so far with the 1 being a pretty tough one to predict.

Ahem.

Lions over Packers

[thspfc]

Apparently I'm smart this week. 8-1 so far with the 1 being a pretty tough one to predict.

Ahem.

Lions over Packers

The one I missed was Bills/Jets. And Seahawks/Cardinals after that.

[JayhawkCO]

Apparently I'm smart this week. 8-1 so far with the 1 being a pretty tough one to predict.

Ahem.

Lions over Packers

The one I missed was Bills/Jets. And Seahawks/Cardinals after that.

Ha. You're right. I was looking at jlam's. My apologies.

[webny99]

What I took issue with was 1) using that to throw out the success of the Chiefs defense in both that game and their second meeting, and 2) acting like those were the only two games to that point that the Chiefs were successful offensively...

OK, we don't really need to rehash this, but that comment was 100% about the Chiefs offense (which had been struggling in the weeks prior) vs. the Raiders defense. Yes, the defense looked better, and was in favorable position all game with a large lead and unstoppable offense, but the comment had nothing to do with the defense. It wasn't the only game when the Chiefs were successful offensively but it had been over a month since they had. All I was saying is the Raiders could have tried some of the defensive strategy that other teams had success with and maybe the Chiefs don't go off for 40+ points, and then nobody would be saying "the Chiefs are back!"

2. I have no idea how that relates to my post about the Bucs. So... here I go with more commentary...   

Focusing overwhelmingly on the mistakes made by the opposing team rather than the plays made by the winning team. It was both.

In both cases, the mistakes related more to coaching than strictly the performance of the players, and those mistakes set up the winning team to make plays. If the Rams play for a first down and get it, the Bucs do not have another chance for a touchdown drive. It is just terrible coaching to get conservative and play to give them that chance.

The 2021 Chiefs had 26-year old Patrick Mahomes with a great roster and a top-5 coach of all time. Sure, they had to figure things out last season, but at no point were they in serious danger of missing the playoffs, and at no point did I believe they were not a Super Bowl contender.

Based on that post I have a hard time believing that.

You have a hard time believing... that I thought the Chiefs were a SB contender?    Of course they were a SB contender, but scoring 40 points against the Raiders simply didn't change what I thought about them.

The 2022 Bucs have the 45-year old ghost of Tom Brady

You mean the one who leads the league in completions, attempts, and yards ...?

Of course he does because they have no running game. They're on pace to have the worst running game in NFL history.

could easily be 2-7 right now;

Non-argument and you know it because they could just as easily be 7-2.

What!? I don't buy that at all. I can tell you exactly how they'd be 2-7: a terrible call on Grady Jarrett that cost the Falcons a chance to win, and terrible end game management by Sean McVay.
I have no idea how they could be 7-2, even if you can somehow make the case they could have won every game except for Chiefs and Panthers, the Panthers are in the mix for the #1 overall pick and beat them by three scores, the Chiefs put up 41 points on a defense that's supposed to be their strength, and they were badly outplayed by the Ravens too even though the score ended up close.

The win is highly unlikely to change the trajectory of their season.

One game by itself never changes the trajectory of any team's season. What I said was if they start winning more games, this will be looked back upon as the starting point.

I actually disagree that one game can't change the trajectory. It absolutely can, I just don't think this is it for the Bucs.

[thspfc]

could easily be 2-7 right now;
Non-argument and you know it because they could just as easily be 7-2.

What!? I don't buy that at all. I can tell you exactly how they'd be 2-7: a terrible call on Grady Jarrett that cost the Falcons a chance to win, and terrible end game management by Sean McVay.
I have no idea how they could be 7-2, even if you can somehow make the case they could have won every game except for Chiefs and Panthers, the Panthers are in the mix for the #1 overall pick and beat them by three scores, the Chiefs put up 41 points on a defense that's supposed to be their strength, and they were badly outplayed by the Ravens too even though the score ended up close.

Alright fine.

- They don't take a delay of game on the 2pt conversion against the Packers, they convert it, they win in OT.
- They replace even one of their 3 short field goals against the Steelers with a touchdown. Heck, if Kenny Pickett doesn't get hurt, they probably win that game.
- They replace even one of their 3 short field goals against the Ravens with a touchdown.

Absolutely none of that matters one inch - which is precisely why this point that they "could be 2-7" is irrelevant. They're 4-5. Period. Talking about what would have happened if things were different is a slippery slope.

Side note - Atlanta still would have had to go the length of the field in a couple minutes and score a TD to win that game if the correct non-call was made. With Marcus Mariota at QB.

-Preemptive eye roll at the "Chiefs are back!" narrative.

By saying this you quite clearly implied that you did not believe the Chiefs were back. Back to what? I have to assume Super Bowl contention. I mean, what else would it be? Back to putting ketchup on steak? Back to making state farm commercials?