NFL (2024 Season)

[webny99]

Saw a crazy fun fact going around today... The entire NFC West has had at least *3* different starting QB's this season, with one exception: the Seattle Seahawks. Just imagine being told that in the preseason. I would have guessed any of the other three teams miles ahead of Seattle.

[thspfc]

With week 17 underway, our forking competition is locked up, so here's where everyone stands. Playoff odds according to 538.

NWI_Irish96
Lions (+20, 24%)
Jets (+20, 15%)
Browns (+20)
Texans (+20)
Falcons (+20)
Seahawks (+20, 27%)
Patriots (+15, 20%)
Steelers (+15, 3%)
Raiders (+15, .5%)
Commanders (+15, 28%)
Panthers (+15, 29%)
Broncos (+13)
Jaguars (+13, 75%)
Saints (+13, 3%)
Colts (+10)
Rams (+10)
Cardinals (+10)
Bears (+10)
Current total: 274
0/18 have clinched playoff berth
8/18 have been eliminated
10/18 are still alive, with an average chance of 22.5%, and one (Jaguars) over 50%


jlam
Falcons (+20)
Texans (+20)
Jets (+20, 15%)
Giants (+20, 92%)
Bears (+20)
Lions (+20, 24%)
Raiders (+15, .5%)
Steelers (+15, 3%)
Seahawks (+15, 27%)
Panthers (+13, 29%)
Commanders (+13, 28%)
Saints (+13, 3%)
Cardinals (+13)
Broncos (+13)
Jaguars (+13, 75%)
Colts (+13)
Patriots (+13, 20%)
Chargers (+13)
Current total: 282
1/18 has clinched playoff berth (282-30 = 252)
6/18 have been eliminated
11/18 are still alive, with an average chance of 28.8%, and two (Giants, Jaguars) over 50%


thspfc
Texans (+20)
Jaguars (+20, 75%)
Giants (+20, 92%)
Falcons (+20)
Bears (+20)
Lions (+20, 24%)
Seahawks (+20, 27%)
Patriots (+15, 20%)
Jets (+15, 15%)
Steelers (+15, 3%)
Panthers (+15, 29%)
Raiders (+13, .5%)
Saints (+13, 3%)
Cardinals (+13)
Broncos (+13)
Browns (+13)
Rams (+10)
Colts (+10)
Current total: 285
0/18 have clinched playoff berth
8/18 have been eliminated
10/18 are still alive, with an average chance of 28.9%, and two (Giants, Jaguars) over 50%


jayhawkco
Giants (+20, 92%)
Panthers (+20, 29%)
Seahawks (+20, 27%)
Jets (+20, 15%)
Falcons (+20)
Browns (+20)
Jaguars (+20, 75%)
Lions (+20, 24%)
Bears (+20)
Commanders (+20, 28%)
Cardinals (+15)
Cowboys (+15)
Steelers (+15, 3%)
Raiders (+15, .5%)
Patriots (+15, 20%)
Broncos (+13)
Texans (+13)
Saints (+13, 3%)
Current total: 314
1/18 has clinched playoff berth (314-30 = 284)
6/18 have been eliminated
11/18 are still alive, with an average chance of 28.8%, and two (Giants, Jaguars) over 50%


webny99
Steelers (+20, 3%)
Browns (+20)
Jets (+20, 15%)
Patriots (+20, 20%)
Texans (+20)
Titans (+20, 27%)
Falcons (+20)
Giants (+20, 92%)
Commanders (+20, 28%)
Seahawks (+20, 27%)
Lions (+20, 24%)
Bears (+20)
Panthers (+15, 29%)
Packers (+13, 27%)
Buccaneers (+13, 70%)
Broncos (+13)
Jaguars (+13, 75%)
Raiders (+13, .5%)
Current total: 320
0/18 have clinched playoff berth
5/18 have been eliminated
13/18 are still alive, with an average chance of 33.7%, and three (Giants, Jaguars, Bucs) over 50%


CoreySamson
Falcons (+20)
Bears (+20)
Giants (+20, 92%)
Panthers (+20, 29%)
Jaguars (+20, 75%)
Current total: 100
0/5 have clinched playoff berth
2/5 have been eliminated
3/5 are still alive, with an average chance of 65.3%, and two (Giants, Jaguars) over 50%

hobsini2
Jets (+20, 15%)
Texans (+20)
Jaguars (+20, 75%)
Steelers (+20, 3%)
Broncos (+20)
Commanders (+20, 28%)
Giants (+20, 92%)
Panthers (+20, 29%)
Falcons (+20)
Saints (+20, 3%)
Lions (+20, 24%)
Current total: 220
0/11 have clinched playoff berth
3/11 have been eliminated
8/11 are still alive, with an average chance of 33.6%, and two (Giants, Jaguars) over 50%


Henry
Bears (+10)
Broncos (+10)
Browns (+10)
Jaguars (+10, 75%)
Lions (+10, 24%)
Panthers (+10, 29%)
Raiders (+10, .5%)
Rams (+10)
Saints (+10, 3%)
Steelers (+10, 3%)
Texans (+10)
Bengals (+10)
Cardinals (+10)
Chargers (+10)
Colts (+10)
Commanders (+10, 28%)
Falcons (+10)
Panthers (+10, 29%)
Current total: 180
2/18 have clinched playoff berth (180-60 = 120)
8/18 have been eliminated
8/18 are still alive, with an average chance of 23.9%, one (Jaguars) over 50%


Three of us - NWI_Irish96, webny99, and me - are able to win the competition. It's essentially going to come down to five teams: the Giants, Commanders, Buccaneers, Packers, and Titans.

In a nutshell, Irish wins in any scenario where the Giants make the playoffs and the Commanders do not, except for if the Giants are the only team of the five to make it, in which case webny99 would win. Irish also wins if only the Bucs, only the Packers, or only the Titans make it. All that gives Irish a roughly 59% chance to win.

I win in any scenario where a) the Commanders make it or the Giants don't, and b) at least 2/4 of the Bucs, Commanders, Packers, and Titans make it. That gives me roughly a 25% chance to win.

Webny99 wins in any scenario where the Bucs, Packers, and Titans all miss the playoffs. There's about a 16% chance of that happening.

(I'm in a bit of a statistics and probability nerd phase after taking up low-stakes poker recently. I probably won't become a gambling addict.)

[1995hoo]

WAS started Carson Wentz because Heinicke threw too many INTs last week. Wentz has two INTs (so far) very early in the second quarter and the boos were raining down as they went to commercial.

[JayhawkCO]

WAS started Carson Wentz because Heinicke threw too many INTs last week. Wentz has two INTs (so far) very early in the second quarter and the boos were raining down as they went to commercial.

Wentz also has no upside. At least Heinicke has games where he plays well.

[1995hoo]

WAS started Carson Wentz because Heinicke threw too many INTs last week. Wentz has two INTs (so far) very early in the second quarter and the boos were raining down as they went to commercial.

Wentz also has no upside. At least Heinicke has games where he plays well.

We went out for a walk at halftime with the Commies leading 7—3. Got home and turned it back on right as Cleveland scored to make it 17—7. 

[epzik8]

Top AFC seed between Chiefs and Bills now?

[thspfc]

The "ghost of Tom Brady"  goes 34/45 for 432, 4 total TDs, no picks 😬

[skluth]

WAS started Carson Wentz because Heinicke threw too many INTs last week. Wentz has two INTs (so far) very early in the second quarter and the boos were raining down as they went to commercial.

Wentz also has no upside. At least Heinicke has games where he plays well.

We went out for a walk at halftime with the Commies leading 7—3. Got home and turned it back on right as Cleveland scored to make it 17—7. 

Packers fans everywhere thank the Commies for starting Carson Wentz instead of Taylor Heinicke. 

[webny99]

The "ghost of Tom Brady"  goes 34/45 for 432, 4 total TDs, no picks 😬

Brady with a chance to eliminate me from our forks competition? I'm surprised his stats weren't even better. 

[webny99]

WAS started Carson Wentz because Heinicke threw too many INTs last week. Wentz has two INTs (so far) very early in the second quarter and the boos were raining down as they went to commercial.

Wentz also has no upside. At least Heinicke has games where he plays well.

We went out for a walk at halftime with the Commies leading 7—3. Got home and turned it back on right as Cleveland scored to make it 17—7. 

Packers fans everywhere thank the Commies for starting Carson Wentz instead of Taylor Heinicke.

I agree, they should have stuck with Heinicke. It's not like he's even that much better, but he just has something of an "it" factor that I don't think Wentz has. And the importance of that game can't be overstated - with the built in half-game because of the tie and the Cowboys quite likely resting starters next week, the Commanders would be in great position if they'd won.

[thspfc]

Last week Patrick Starr almost took care of my punishment for losing the Broncos bet for me. In case anyone somehow hasn't seen it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl4f0yNcWrI

Indeed, 4 wins and one of the worst offenses in NFL history are not what Russ wanted to cook. Mr. Unlimited was actually quite limited. With a crucial touchdown pass today in Denver's 12th loss of the season, Russ' 2022 TD pass total finally equaled the number of bathrooms in his house.

Perhaps the most embarrassing part of the flop that was the Broncos offense was how they wasted one of the best defenses we've seen in recent years. They allowed 20+ points in only 6 of 16 games, with the 6 including an overtime game and two games against the Chiefs. This is especially impressive because the Broncos offense ranked dead last in 3rd down percentage and #1 in 3-and-outs, so the defense was on the field a lot.

I pretty much drank the kool-aid for the entire season up until the second Raiders game. Turns out everyone else was right to be dumping on the Broncos after that forsaken Thursday night game. If I can still offer one piece of defense,  it's that I don't think Denver is bad enough to deserve the 31st/32nd rankings they're getting in most power rankings lists. Their defense kept almost all their games close, even against good teams. To me the Texans, Bears, and Cardinals are undoubtedly worse, and you could argue my preseason Super Bowl pick - the Colts - are worse as well.

So Broncos Country has a bumpy ride ahead if they're going to make it back to relevancy. Cutting Mr. Limited Cap Space is not an option because with no first round pick and a massive dead cap hit, there's no alternative. Unless they want to go back to Kendall Hinton at QB. They would probably be in a better position right now if they never traded for Russ and started Hinton the whole year.

The "ghost of Tom Brady"  goes 34/45 for 432, 4 total TDs, no picks 😬

Brady with a chance to eliminate me from our forks competition? I'm surprised his stats weren't even better. 

As expected, NWI_Irish96 is the official winner of the competition.

[webny99]

As expected, NWI_Irish96 is the official winner of the competition.

Congratulations, NWI_Irish96!

I want to do a more thorough analysis after Week 18, but for now, it looks like your conservative strategy paid off. My aggression had some upside: I'm reasonably happy with my preseason forks, including some gutsy ones in the AFC, but it's all too fitting that forking Tom Brady is what cost me in the end. If only I'd had the sense to pair the Rams with the Packers when forking so called NFC contenders... or just given up on the moribund Cardinals.

[webny99]

If I can still offer one piece of defense,  it's that I don't think Denver is bad enough to deserve the 31st/32nd rankings they're getting in most power rankings lists. Their defense kept almost all their games close, even against good teams. To me the Texans, Bears, and Cardinals are undoubtedly worse, and you could argue my preseason Super Bowl pick - the Colts - are worse as well.

Add "the Broncos will beat the Chiefs this season" to my list of predictions that came frustratingly close to happening, even despite the terrible season.

As for the Broncos being at the bottom of team rankings, I disagreed for most of the season, but their vaunted defense giving up a 50-burger to the Rams did it for me. I would probably have them 28th or 29th, in the mix with the Bears, Falcons, and Colts, and definitely ahead of the Cardinals and Texans. I think I'd have the Cardinals at 32 right now. They've been uncompetitive most of the season, just lost to the Falcons, their best player is retiring, and they have an aging roster with big questions about their coaching staff and front office. All that adds up to a future that's more uncertain than almost any team in the league.

[1995hoo]

Evidently, someone who works for the Commanders must be familiar with the quotation in my autosignature. The following is a screenshot from an article on their website about the Hogs.

[amroad17]

^ ?????  Errr, alright. 

Anyway, continuing on the idiocy that is the Washington Commanders, in my perusing of news about the team it seemed that no one in the organization knew that they would be eliminated from playoff contention if they lost and the Packers won today.  Coach Rivera was sure surprised when asked about it ("We can be eliminated?  If it happens, it'll be disappointing.")    Really?  Guess what?  Let the disappointment start!  However, what would anyone expect when you start a QB with a track record of, in George Steinbrenner's words, "spitting the bit".

BTW, that quote from Olaf Kolzig is one of the most profound answers to a reporter's question in history.  Kolzig was not wrong.

[amroad17]

Here is a big if...

Because of the Steelers victory over the Ravens, if the Bengals defeat the Bills on Monday Night Football, the Bengals win the AFC North.  If the Bengals and the Bills end with the same record at the end of the season (with a possible Bengals victory over Buffalo) the Bengals would be the 2 seed.  Even more far-fetched, if the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals end up with the same record (say, 13-4), the Bengals would be the 1 seed.  Burrow and Company just need to first take care of business later tonight.

_______________________________________

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have come back from the dead and have positioned themselves in the driver's seat for the 7 seed in the NFC.  A win and they are in.

Any proof that Jalen Hurts should be the NFL MVP this season?  The Eagles are in danger of losing the 1 seed.  They need to beat the New York Football Giants next week to secure the spot.  Otherwise, it could be the 49ers as the 1 seed. 

Also, be very wary of the 49ers.  They are giving up a league best 16.5 ppg.  Buffalo, New England, Baltimore, and Dallas are the only other teams that are giving up less than 20 ppg.

[jgb191]

I don't know if this has ever happened before and if it hasn't then my Texans are the first non-winless team to go winless at home this season....both wins this season were on the road at Jacksonville and at Tennessee.  Also if the NFL games was only 45 minutes, the Texans record would have been even at eight wins and losses, but those dreaded fourth quarters saw many of those leads slip away.  Factor in the fourth quarter and we get their current 2-13-1 record.

[Ted$8roadFan]

I'm happy to see that we have Steve Kornacki of NBC is available to help understand the fascinating playoff scenarios.

[NWI_Irish96]

I don't know if this has ever happened before and if it hasn't then my Texans are the first non-winless team to go winless at home this season....both wins this season were on the road at Jacksonville and at Tennessee.  Also if the NFL games was only 45 minutes, the Texans record would have been even at eight wins and losses, but those dreaded fourth quarters saw many of those leads slip away.  Factor in the fourth quarter and we get their current 2-13-1 record.

I hope the Texans get one more win.

[Henry]

Because of the Steelers victory over the Ravens, if the Bengals defeat the Bills on Monday Night Football, the Bengals win the AFC North.  If the Bengals and the Bills end with the same record at the end of the season (with a possible Bengals victory over Buffalo) the Bengals would be the 2 seed.  Even more far-fetched, if the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals end up with the same record (say, 13-4), the Bengals would be the 1 seed.  Burrow and Company just need to first take care of business later tonight.

_______________________________________

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have come back from the dead and have positioned themselves in the driver's seat for the 7 seed in the NFC.  A win and they are in.

First off, I'm now regretting my bungled fork (pun intended) of Cincinnati; they look to be in even better shape for the playoffs than they were last season.

And second, I'll be rooting for the Vikings to beat the Packers in the season finale, in a rare instance of me cheering on another NFC North team. May as well do so, since the Bears are dead last...again.

[JayhawkCO]

Because of the Steelers victory over the Ravens, if the Bengals defeat the Bills on Monday Night Football, the Bengals win the AFC North.  If the Bengals and the Bills end with the same record at the end of the season (with a possible Bengals victory over Buffalo) the Bengals would be the 2 seed.  Even more far-fetched, if the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals end up with the same record (say, 13-4), the Bengals would be the 1 seed.  Burrow and Company just need to first take care of business later tonight.

_______________________________________

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have come back from the dead and have positioned themselves in the driver's seat for the 7 seed in the NFC.  A win and they are in.

First off, I'm now regretting my bungled fork (pun intended) of Cincinnati; they look to be in even better shape for the playoffs than they were last season.

And second, I'll be rooting for the Vikings to beat the Packers in the season finale, in a rare instance of me cheering on another NFC North team. May as well do so, since the Bears are dead last...again.

The Vikings already played, well, kind of, the Packers yesterday. Are you cheering for them in a potential playoff matchup?

[thspfc]

Next week the Lions need the Seahawks to lose but the Seahawks need the Lions to win.

[Big John]

DET/GB got flexed to Sunday night, but would be meaningless for Detroit if Seattle wins.

[thspfc]

DET/GB got flexed to Sunday night, but would be meaningless for Detroit if Seattle wins.

If it was any other division, Titans/Jags would have been flexed. But the AFCS is never good for ratings.

Imagine hearing after the first time the two teams met, when the 2-6 Lions beat the 3-6 Packers 15-9, that Lions/Packers would be the week 18 Sunday night game.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Is it me, or is the NFL flexing more games this year?