NFL (2024 Season)

[cwf1701]

Is it me, or do i think the Bears will get the #1 pick again, but this time as a 0-17 team?

[Alps]

Is it me, or do i think the Bears will get the #1 pick again, but this time as a 0-17 team?

They don't play the Jets so it's possible.

[jp the roadgeek]

Is it me, or do i think the Bears will get the #1 pick again, but this time as a 0-17 team?

They don't play the Jets so it's possible.

The loser of next week's Broncos-Bears game has the early inside track

[jmacswimmer]

They could even have the top 2 picks by virtue of holding Carolina's 1st rounder next year, as they're also 0-3 

At this point I'm just hoping for at least a halfway competitive game against the Commanders in a week & a half for the game at FedExField I have tickets for...

FOX was initially showing the Bears-Chiefs game here, but then switched over to Cowboys-Cardinals after halftime in order to "show a more competitive matchup" . Oof 

[webny99]

Another one for "Random Thoughts: NFL Edition"...

This week was a great showcase for the unpredictable, juxtapositious nature of the NFL.

One one hand, there's such a clear and vast talent disparity between the best teams/units and the worst ones. We saw a 70-burger laid (in a 50 point victory) that rivals anything you'd get in even the most lopsided of college matchups. Last year's Super Bowl champion beat last year's worst team by 31 points*. And a QB in Sam Howell who'd looked good against two of the worst defenses in the league looked terrible against a much better defense. So, we should have a pretty good idea of who will be good and who will be bad on any given week, right?

Not so fast. Three teams favored by a touchdown-plus lost today, first time that's happened in almost a decade. Not only that, the team many/most people had ranked #1 in the entire league entering the week lost to the team that many/most people had ranked #32 in the entire league entering the week, and it didn't even necessarily feel like a fluky loss. And a team projected to coast to 10+ wins and a division title lost by double digits and was dominated by a division rival that was widely presumed to be the second-worst team in the league.

Then add on to that games like Chargers-Vikings that are predictably unpredictable... where you know it's probably going to come down to the wire, and it does, but it's still wildly entertaining and volatile in real time, and it's little wonder "any given Sunday" is such a common refrain across the NFL.




*Actually, the Bears hung for a quarter and outscored the Chiefs in the 2nd half, but a 27-point 2nd quarter from the Chiefs rendered that completely meaningless.

[Big John]

They could even have the top 2 picks by virtue of holding Carolina's 1st rounder next year, as they're also 0-3 

At this point I'm just hoping for at least a halfway competitive game against the Commanders in a week & a half for the game at FedExField I have tickets for...

FOX was initially showing the Bears-Chiefs game here, but then switched over to Cowboys-Cardinals after halftime in order to "show a more competitive matchup" . Oof 

They didn't switch here, likely because it was a divisional game.

[webny99]

The loser of next week's Broncos-Bears game has the early inside track

Oh no. Two train wrecks colliding at high speeds. It could be dubbed the Tank Bowl, but it's especially ugly because both franchises/fanbases had true hopes of being in playoff contention this season and certainly didn't expect to start 0-3.

At this point, playoffs would be miraculous for either team, but 0-4 is a true death knell.

They could even have the top 2 picks by virtue of holding Carolina's 1st rounder next year, as they're also 0-3 

Despite the Texans' win today, it's still very much possible that the top four picks could all belong to Chicago and Arizona in some order.

[mgk920]

The loser of next week's Broncos-Bears game has the early inside track

Oh no. Two train wrecks colliding at high speeds. It could be dubbed the Tank Bowl, but it's especially ugly because both franchises/fanbases had true hopes of being in playoff contention this season and certainly didn't expect to start 0-3.

At this point, playoffs would be miraculous for either team, but 0-4 is a true death knell.

They could even have the top 2 picks by virtue of holding Carolina's 1st rounder next year, as they're also 0-3 

Despite the Texans' win today, it's still very much possible that the top four picks could all belong to Chicago and Arizona in some order.

Howabout that game (let's call it the Tidy Bowl) ending of a 3-3 draw? 

OTOH, the Lions @ Green Bay on Thursday night will indeed be interesting.   

Mike

[JayhawkCO]

Fork the Bears and the Vikings.

[jgb191]

Let's say Team A beats Team B, and then Team B beats Team C, well then logic would tell you that Team A should beat Team C right?

Well that's what sets our AFC South division apart from all other NFL divisions.  The AFC South throws that logic out the window; practically every year Team C beats Team A.  And this has been happening annually ever since I gained my NFL interest two decades ago.

Week One:  Jaguars won at the Colts.
Week Two:  Colts won at the Texans.
Week Three:  Texans win at the Jaguars!

It's a full circle!!  The AFC South is the NFL's version of Rock/Paper/Scissors....and all road victories to boot!

[webny99]

Let's say Team A beats Team B, and then Team B beats Team C, well then logic would tell you that Team A should beat Team C right?

Well that's what sets our AFC South division apart from all other NFL divisions.  The AFC South throws that logic out the window; practically every year Team C beats Team A.  And this has been happening annually ever since I gained my NFL interest two decades ago.

It's an interesting phenomenon, but I hate to be the bearer of bad news: it's not unique to the AFC South by any stretch. You can find examples of it in every division, especially since the teams play twice a year. In fact, if all teams in the division split their season matchups, you would by definition be able to form any set of A>B>C>A you wanted using those results.

It used to be quite common in the NFC West with 49ers>Rams>Seahawks>49ers, where each team not just beat the other, but swept them (see 2019 and 2020 seasons). And it happened last year in the AFC East with Jets>Bills>Patriots>Jets, and could happen again this year.

For a non-divisional example this season, Cowboys beat Giants, Giants (barely) beat Cardinals, Cardinals beat Cowboys. Now, that one is a little more fluky, but still worth noting.

[thspfc]

Had the Lions last night.

Jaguars
Rams
Browns
Vikings
Bengals
Saints
Bills
Bears
Eagles
Texans
Chargers
49ers
Cowboys
Chiefs
Seahawks

[The Ghostbuster]

I'm not surprised the Green Bay Packers fell to the Detroit Lions. The first half was pathetic. The second half was better, with the Packers outscoring the Lions 17-7, but unlike the game against the Saints, the mountain to victory was too high to climb. I hope the Packers do better in their next game on Monday, October 9th against the Las Vegas Raiders. It will be great to see former Packer Wide Receiver Devante Adams play against his former team.

[jlam]

I'll jump the gun with posting my final Week 1-4 fork picks:

• The aforementioned Broncos
• Jets
• Patriots
• Giants

Vance Joseph keeps taking steps in the wrong direction. At least we didn't give up 140

[Max Rockatansky]

I guess everyone was a little early anointing the Dolphins.  I do wonder though, how bad are the Bears if they still managed to lose to the Broncos?

[jmacswimmer]

I guess everyone was a little early anointing the Dolphins.  I do wonder though, how bad are the Bears if they still managed to lose to the Broncos?

Speaking as a Bears fan, incredibly bad. They now hold the top 2 draft picks courtesy of them & the Panthers being the last 2 winless teams 

After that game ended I immediately explained the paper-bag concept to my wife in preparation for heading to FedEx Field this Thursday night...

[webny99]

I guess everyone was a little early anointing the Dolphins.

AFC East round robin of the 2020's. Bills own Dolphins, Dolphins own Patriots, Patriots own Jets, Jets own Bills.

I do wonder though, how bad are the Bears if they still managed to lose to the Broncos?

Speaking as a Bears fan, incredibly bad. They now hold the top 2 draft picks courtesy of them & the Panthers being the last 2 winless teams 

Of course, this is not breaking news. The Bears are terrible, the Broncos were their only real competition for worst team in the league. That's 14 straight losses and no one should have had any confidence that they would win, even against a team that just gave up 70 points.

As brutal as it was to lose that game, though, there is at least a double silver lining for Bears fans. First, you've got the top two draft picks at the moment, and no reason to think the Panthers pick is going to be tumbling anytime soon. And second, Fields had a career day with 300+ yards, and that gives you a bit of hope for the rest of the season. It's been almost impossible to evaluate him to this point, but if he stacks some more good performances, it will provide some clarity as to what path the organization should take going forward (hopefully with a new coach/GM as I think we've seen enough to know that Eberflus isn't it, further confirmed by the Claypool debacle).

If the Broncos had lost, though? Zero silver lining. Payton's coaching performance looks increasingly and hysterically worse, your defense just gave up 70 points and followed it up by making the laughingstock Bears offense look respectable, and you're tied to a middling version of Russell Wilson long term. If you keep losing, there's no top draft picks or potential QB of the future on the roster like there is in Chicago. It's win now or else, so to get that comeback win that shows the team hasn't completely given up must be a massive sigh of relief to the entire organization.

[JayhawkCO]

Fork the Bengals and the Steelers.

[jgb191]

The Texans win their first home game since Christmas 2021, snapping an eleven-game home losing streak; all of our last four wins were on the road while visiting division opponents. 

That same stretch, we've also not won consecutive games since Christmas 2021; both of our two-game winning streak, then and now, included wins against Jacksonville. 

Additionally, they have not won by 20+ points margin since 2017, six years ago; Texans won by 24 points today.

After being sacked twelve times in the first two games, CJ has not been sacked these last two games and has yet to throw an interception for his career.

[webny99]

The Texans win their first home game since Christmas 2021 ...

Additionally, they have not won by 20+ points margin since 2017, six years ago; Texans won by 24 points today.

Wow! That was a solid win and Stroud looks really good.

Pretty rough for the Steelers though. Between that, Watson being out, and the Bengals being 1-3 while Burrow still deals with injury, the Ravens might end up rolling to a division title in a division expected to be a dogfight... not a sentence I expected to be typing one week after they lost to the Colts. 

[thspfc]

I guess everyone was a little early anointing the Dolphins.

It's been quite a response from the Bills following the week 1 catastrophe.

Elizabeth II took the throne in 1952 and has missed 3 Bears wins since her death. Elon Musk's Twitter has never discussed a Bears win.

Zach Wilson outplaying Patrick Mahomes is a thing that happened. Mahomes also set a likely career low by being only the 4th person shown on the broadcast just before kickoff, after Kelce, Taylor Swift, and Aaron Rodgers. 

In addition to the Broncos my 20-point forks will be the Panthers, Jets, and *tentatively* Vikings pending tonight's result. I can't bring myself to write off the Bengals yet. I don't feel good about putting all my chips on the Saints in the NFCS, but the Panthers sure aren't winning it so there's no point in keeping them. The Jets and Vikings, despite somewhat encouraging performances this week, are just in a hole at 1-3. If the Seahawks drop to 2-2 I might rethink things, but if they win, the NFC will look like this:

4-0 Eagles
4-0 49ers
3-1 Lions
3-1 Bucs
3-1 Cowboys
3-1 Seahawks
2-2 Commanders, Saints, Falcons, Packers, Rams
1-3 Vikings

Too crowded.

Bill Belichick and the Patriots "mutually agreeing to part ways" (read: the Patriots agreeing that Belichick should agree to part ways) is really not that far-fetched if things don't get better.

[Billy F 1988]

Yeah, I think Bill's time as a Patriot coach is coming to an imminent end. Like all dynasties, they all come to an end at some point.

[thspfc]

Yeah, I think Bill's time as a Patriot coach is coming to an imminent end. Like all dynasties, they all come to an end at some point.

Oh, the dynasty has been over for nearly 4 years. Bill has tried, and failed, to rebuild it. Doesn't mean he's not the GOAT coach, but there's no doubt that his lack of success pre- and post-Brady will hurt his legacy.

[Billy F 1988]

Yeah, I think Bill's time as a Patriot coach is coming to an imminent end. Like all dynasties, they all come to an end at some point.

Oh, the dynasty has been over for nearly 4 years. Bill has tried, and failed, to rebuild it. Doesn't mean he's not the GOAT coach, but there's no doubt that his lack of success pre- and post-Brady will hurt his legacy.

You think that might put his Hall of Fame bid on ice?

[hotdogPi]

Yeah, I think Bill's time as a Patriot coach is coming to an imminent end. Like all dynasties, they all come to an end at some point.

Oh, the dynasty has been over for nearly 4 years. Bill has tried, and failed, to rebuild it. Doesn't mean he's not the GOAT coach, but there's no doubt that his lack of success pre- and post-Brady will hurt his legacy.

You think that might put his Hall of Fame bid on ice?

No, this isn't the NHL.



I'm hoping the Seahawks win today so the win/loss distribution is exactly as it should be: two 4-0, eight 3-1, twelve 2-2, eight 1-3, and two 0-4.