NFL (2024 Season)

[JayhawkCO]

Not saying the offense is performing great, but DVOA is a measure of how well an average defense would do in a given spot. So it basically is how it performs on any given play. Allowing a first down on 2nd and 1 isn't a huge deal. Allowing one on 3rd and 18 is. So, this statistic is pretty independent from any bad positions the offense would have put them in.

[webny99]

Not saying the offense is performing great, but DVOA is a measure of how well an average defense would do in a given spot. So it basically is how it performs on any given play. Allowing a first down on 2nd and 1 isn't a huge deal. Allowing one on 3rd and 18 is. So, this statistic is pretty independent from any bad positions the offense would have put them in.

Sure, they have allowed offenses to move the ball, but have mostly been bend but don't break. I'm not disagreeing with their poor DVOA, but offense is still the team's biggest issue. The last second Patriots TD drive is the only truly embarrassing moment on defense. The offense has been 6 straight games of embarrassment.

[webny99]

That means Chiefs/Ravens/Dolphins/Jaguars/Bengals/Browns are my AFC 1-6 seeds and I'll wait a few weeks to decide between Chargers and Broncos for the 7 seed (Too bad I forked the Texans, but at least I wasn't the only one.)

I am also forking the Commanders.

That means Eagles/Lions/49ers/Saints/Cowboys/Seahawks are my NFC 1-6 seeds, and I'm leave the Falcons alive along with the likely 7 seed Vikings for a few more weeks.

[Alps]

Pittsburgh's 5-3 record is a joke. Here are the total offensive yardage numbers for each team in Steelers games this season:

Texans (vs. Steelers) - 451
Browns - 408
49ers - 391
Jaguars - 377
Raiders - 362
Rams - 354
Titans - 340
Ravens - 335
Steelers - 333
Steelers - 326
Steelers - 300
Steelers - 289
Steelers - 261
Steelers - 255
Steelers - 239
Steelers - 225

Not only have they been outgained every single time, their highest yardage total of the season is lower than their opponents' lowest yardage total against them. It's one thing to win games with a good defense carrying a bad offense, but I don't think their defense is even that good. The whole team stinks. This cannot continue for the rest of the year.

Oh no.

Packers, 399 total yards.
Steelers, 324 total yards.

Still holds true for at least another week.

but the Steelers are 6-3. meanwhile the Jets are surprisingly not dead last in every offensive category

[thspfc]

Not saying the offense is performing great, but DVOA is a measure of how well an average defense would do in a given spot. So it basically is how it performs on any given play. Allowing a first down on 2nd and 1 isn't a huge deal. Allowing one on 3rd and 18 is. So, this statistic is pretty independent from any bad positions the offense would have put them in.

Sure, they have allowed offenses to move the ball, but have mostly been bend but don't break. I'm not disagreeing with their poor DVOA, but offense is still the team's biggest issue. The last second Patriots TD drive is the only truly embarrassing moment on defense. The offense has been 6 straight games of embarrassment.

This isn't exactly the same measurement, but in case anyone hasn't seen it yet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIDKWEzr_Kk

[webny99]

Not saying the offense is performing great, but DVOA is a measure of how well an average defense would do in a given spot. So it basically is how it performs on any given play. Allowing a first down on 2nd and 1 isn't a huge deal. Allowing one on 3rd and 18 is. So, this statistic is pretty independent from any bad positions the offense would have put them in.

Sure, they have allowed offenses to move the ball, but have mostly been bend but don't break. I'm not disagreeing with their poor DVOA, but offense is still the team's biggest issue. The last second Patriots TD drive is the only truly embarrassing moment on defense. The offense has been 6 straight games of embarrassment.

This isn't exactly the same measurement, but in case anyone hasn't seen it yet:[video snipped]

Exactly, it almost defies logic. Anyone looking at stats says the offense is great, the defense is terrible. Anyone looking at the scoreboard can tell the opposite is somehow true, despite the stats.

[kurumi]

SF, SEA, PIT, JAX, CLE, DAL, MIA, all at 6-3: "we are not the same"

[thspfc]

Bengals
Browns
Dolphins
Lions
Jaguars
Chargers
Texans
Cowboys
Commanders
49ers
Bills
Seahawks
Broncos
Chiefs

[Hunty2022]

Bengals
Browns
Dolphins
Lions
Jaguars
Chargers
Texans
Cowboys
Commanders
49ers
Bills
Seahawks
Broncos
Chiefs

What do these lists mean? I've wanted to know for the whole season.

[Big John]

Bengals
Browns
Dolphins
Lions
Jaguars
Chargers
Texans
Cowboys
Commanders
49ers
Bills
Seahawks
Broncos
Chiefs

What do these lists mean? I've wanted to know for the whole season.

My guess is that those are his predictions on who will win their game this week.

[thspfc]

Bengals
Browns
Dolphins
Lions
Jaguars
Chargers
Texans
Cowboys
Commanders
49ers
Bills
Seahawks
Broncos
Chiefs

What do these lists mean? I've wanted to know for the whole season.

My guess is that those are his predictions on who will win their game this week.

That is correct. I'm 95-56 so far.

[JayhawkCO]

Pretty sure I was the only one that had forked the Bengals. They face a pretty uphill battle now being .500 with an injured QB.

[JayhawkCO]

Pretty sure I was the only one that had forked the Bengals. They face a pretty uphill battle now being .500 with an injured out-for-the-season QB.

I think we're going to go from people talking about all four AFC North teams getting in to only Baltimore making it in. I'm still not a believer in Pittsburgh.

[Hunty2022]

I'm forking the Bengals.

[jlam]

I hate to do it, but I'll fork the Kitties as well. A disappointing fork since I had them winning the Super Bowl in the preseason. That means my playoff field is officially set, with some questionable choices:

NFC

• Eagles
• Lions
• 49ers
• Saints
• Cowboys
• Seahawks
• Falcons

AFC

• Ravens
• Chiefs
• Dolphins
• Jaguars
• Browns
• Bills
• Chargers

The Texans might end up making the playoffs after all. Good thing everyone forked them.

[thspfc]

I hate to do it, but I'll fork the Kitties as well. A disappointing fork since I had them winning the Super Bowl in the preseason.

They were my Super Bowl pick as well. It really does suck. And I thought they were rounding into form when they beat the 49ers and Bills.

[webny99]

That means Chiefs/Ravens/Dolphins/Jaguars/Bengals/Browns are my AFC 1-6 seeds and I'll wait a few weeks to decide between Chargers and Broncos for the 7 seed (Too bad I forked the Texans, but at least I wasn't the only one.)

I am also forking the Commanders.

That means Eagles/Lions/49ers/Saints/Cowboys/Seahawks are my NFC 1-6 seeds, and I'm leave the Falcons alive along with the likely 7 seed Vikings for a few more weeks.

Alright, this is brutal business, but I am also going to fork the Bengals. Without Burrow and a remaining schedule consisting entirely of teams at or above .500, I don't see a path to 10 wins. And at this point, I don't see any point keeping the Falcons alive either. So I'll make it a clean sweep and complete my playoff field.

AFC:
25 points: Colts, Titans, Texans
20 points: Raiders, Steelers, Patriots
10 points: Bills, Jets, Bengals
Playoffs: Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins, Jaguars, Browns, Chargers, Broncos

NFC:
25 points: Rams, Cardinals, Bucs, Panthers
20 points: Bears, Giants
15 points: Packers
10 points: Commanders, Falcons
Playoffs: Eagles, Lions, 49ers, Saints, Cowboys, Seahawks, Vikings

Overall rating: B-

I'm happy with the NFC field, which looks pretty much locked up, even though I know it's way too early to say that. If anyone else besides the Falcons or Bucs makes it, it will be a surprise to everyone, so I'm relatively safe there. I also want to throw out that the Panthers could still be alive in the NFC South race in December. It's unlikely, but stranger things have happened (see: the 2014 Panthers)

The AFC is pretty thorny. The Patriots and Titans are the only truly "safe" forks - everyone else has at least four wins. I'm weirdly looking forward to rooting for the Broncos, and the Texans would be an interesting but not particularly costly entry because pretty much everyone had them forked. The AFC South could still be messy, with the Jags looking uninspired lately and the Colts and Texans hanging around.

I think we're going to go from people talking about all four AFC North teams getting in to only Baltimore making it in. I'm still not a believer in Pittsburgh.

At this point, just the Ravens getting in is a lot more likely than all 4 getting in. From the other three divisions, there's the Bills, Jets, Chargers, Broncos, Texans, and theoretically the Colts and Raiders all vying for those spots. And you could certainly make a strong case that three or more of those teams are better than the Burrow-less Bengals, Watson-less Browns, and offense-less (more like offensive) Steelers. I don't think I can cope with the Steelers winning 3 more games, much less making the playoffs.

[epzik8]

The Jaguars and Texans are basically guaranteed playoff teams at this point IMO. I think Trevor Lawrence in particular is underrated.

[thspfc]

Pittsburgh's 5-3 record is a joke. Here are the total offensive yardage numbers for each team in Steelers games this season:
...

Not only have they been outgained every single time, their highest yardage total of the season is lower than their opponents' lowest yardage total against them.

Oh no.

Packers, 399 total yards.
Steelers, 324 total yards.

Still holds true for at least another week.

The latter condition of the streak has fallen, with the Browns only putting up 259 yards. But Cleveland did outgain the Steelers so that part lives on.

[jgb191]

The Jaguars and Texans are basically guaranteed playoff teams at this point IMO. I think Trevor Lawrence in particular is underrated.

Whoa!  Let's slow down about my Texans just yet, remember this is the same team that handed the Panthers their only win of the season just a few games ago, which likely can come back to haunt us come Christmas time.  There are way too many playoff-capable teams in the AFC.  Also please note that the Broncos have been on a roll this month; they are very capable of scooping up a playoff spot.  Not saying we can't make it; but nothing is ever guaranteed until officially clinched.  I'm not sure if the Texans are done rebuilding just yet; their loss at Charlotte is a jarring reminder that something could be still missing.

[webny99]

The Seahawks really blew it by losing to the Rams today. They're 6-4, but now staring down a very possible fall to 6-8 with the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers twice in the next four weeks. Unless they pull off an upset or two, they may have just opened the NFC Wild Card race back up to a few teams that have no business being there... including the Rams!

[TheHighwayMan3561]

The Seahawks really blew it by losing to the Rams today. They're 6-4, but now staring down a very possible fall to 6-8 with the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers twice in the next four weeks. Unless they pull off an upset or two, they may have just opened the NFC Wild Card race back up to a few teams that have no business being there... including the Rams!

The problem with suggesting any team sitting behind the pack lke that could make a run is there's a reason they're there to begin with. The Rams do have games against Cleveland and Baltimore in the final stretch, plus a likely 50/50 gamr with New Orleans and their other game with the 49ers (which may or may not be important to San Francisco when we get to Week 18). 8-9 or 7-10 looks like their ceiling to me barring upsetting multiple teams that are better than they are. 8-9 may be enough to finish in a tie for the 7, but there are a lot of 4-6 teams right now too (Packers, Bucs, Falcons, Commanders, though I expect those latter two to go away).

[webny99]

The Seahawks really blew it by losing to the Rams today. They're 6-4, but now staring down a very possible fall to 6-8 with the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers twice in the next four weeks. Unless they pull off an upset or two, they may have just opened the NFC Wild Card race back up to a few teams that have no business being there... including the Rams!

The problem with suggesting any team sitting behind the pack lke that could make a run is there's a reason they're there to begin with. The Rams do have games against Cleveland and Baltimore in the final stretch, plus a likely 50/50 gamr with New Orleans and their other game with the 49ers (which may or may not be important to San Francisco when we get to Week 18). 8-9 or 7-10 looks like their ceiling to me barring upsetting multiple teams that are better than they are. 8-9 may be enough to finish in a tie for the 7, but there are a lot of 4-6 teams right now too (Packers, Bucs, Falcons, Commanders, though I expect those latter two to go away).

Certainly not disagreeing with any of that. The Rams aren't favorites to get in by any stretch, but they are now going to be alive through much of December and it would not be shocking if they have a better record than the Seahawks entering the stretch run. The Seahawks are now just a coin flip to make it (53% per NYT's calculator), with the remaining probability roughly split between the Rams, Packers, Bucs, and Falcons, so I guess "more interesting than it had to be" is how I would put it.

The Commanders have a 7th loss, so they're pretty much out of it already. With the Rams and Jets being the most winnable games left on their schedule, losing out to finish 4-13 seems more likely than a playoff berth.

[mgk920]

Over the past few decades, the Packers have also made a habit out of gelling late in the season and backing into the playoffs, see the team's 2010-2011 SB run after backing in (they ran the table after Thanksgiving) as the last NFC wild card.  We shall see.

Mike

[Henry]

"How the hell did da Bears lose in Detroit???"

--Me and every disgruntled fan after the latest come-from-ahead loss where everything went right until the last minute