NFL (2024 Season)

[webny99]

Russell Wilson getting benched. I have never had a more correct sports take.

I wouldn't go that far. Wilson has been "OK" this season - not Seattle good, certainly not good enough to justify the massive trade, but not terrible either.

But more importantly, this is not a performance-related benching; it's being done strictly for financial reasons. There's 0% chance it happens if they don't gag against the Patriots, because they'd have a real shot at the playoffs. Instead, season over.

[thspfc]

Russell Wilson getting benched. I have never had a more correct sports take.

I wouldn't go that far. Wilson has been "OK" this season - not Seattle good, certainly not good enough to justify the massive trade, but not terrible either.

But more importantly, this is not a performance-related benching; it's being done strictly for financial reasons. There's 0% chance it happens if they don't gag against the Patriots, because they'd have a real shot at the playoffs. Instead, season over.

It's at least partially performance-related, because if he was playing well, they wouldn't be letting him go, and therefore he wouldn't be getting benched.

He's been pretty much average this year, and there are many worse QBs that are still starting. But the Broncos needed a lot more than average from all the money, draft capital, and players they gave up. The trade was undeniably a flop for the Broncos - though, astonishingly, it's only the 3rd worst trade of the last 3 offseasons.

[JayhawkCO]

Russell Wilson getting benched. I have never had a more correct sports take.

I wouldn't go that far. Wilson has been "OK" this season - not Seattle good, certainly not good enough to justify the massive trade, but not terrible either.

But more importantly, this is not a performance-related benching; it's being done strictly for financial reasons. There's 0% chance it happens if they don't gag against the Patriots, because they'd have a real shot at the playoffs. Instead, season over.

I'm not patting myself on the back too much, since I've had plenty of misses too. But when the Broncos signed him, so many people around the country (and on this website) thought for sure he would make them a playoff team and a possible Super Bowl candidate. I said he would be a net negative, and I still maintain he has been. He's a guy with a "holier than thou" public persona that isn't that same person in the locker room and he lost his deep ball about 4 years ago. If you can't throw for yardage with DK Metcalf and Lockett, you're not going to be successful doing it with anyone. And, add the fact that none of his former teammates seem all that fond of him, I think this is arguably the worst trade/extension in NFL history.

[thspfc]

Russell Wilson getting benched. I have never had a more correct sports take.

I think this is arguably the worst trade/extension in NFL history.

Oh, quit while you're ahead. 

The trade was undeniably a flop for the Broncos - though, astonishingly, it's only the 3rd worst trade of the last 3 offseasons.

IMO both the Lance and Watson trades were worse. The 49ers got nothing from Lance. 3 first round picks, just vanished for literally nothing. Just imagine how good that team could be if they'd kept those picks and hit on them. Sure, you can say that they needed a new QB at that time, but the same applies to the Broncos so that's a non-argument.

As for Watson, the jury is partially still out, but through two seasons they've gotten pretty close to nothing. And now a basically retired Joe Flacco, who hasn't been any good since 2016, is flourishing after being picked up off his couch. Watson's contract is also bigger than Wilson's.

[jgb191]

The Texans playoff requirements this season is simple:  Win and they're in!

They hold the cards and control the playoff picture the way things stand entering this weekend.

A.  Win both of the final regular season games, or....
B.  Just win Week 18 and hope the Raiders win this weekend.

The Texans also have a chance at winning the division with

A. Win both games plus a Jaguars loss, or
B. Win on Week 18 plus both Jaguars losses in their two remaining games.

If the Texans lose out, then no chance for the Division title, and practically improbable odds for even a wild card seed (will need a lot of help from other teams).  Of the teams that haven't been eliminated yet, only the Browns will hold the tiebreaker edge.

If both the Texans and Colts win this weekend, then this could set up a win-or-go home matchup on Week 18 at Indianapolis where the winner is in and season ends for the loser.

[webny99]

I'm not patting myself on the back too much, since I've had plenty of misses too. But when the Broncos signed him, so many people around the country (and on this website) thought for sure he would make them a playoff team and a possible Super Bowl candidate. I said he would be a net negative, and I still maintain he has been. He's a guy with a "holier than thou" public persona that isn't that same person in the locker room and he lost his deep ball about 4 years ago. If you can't throw for yardage with DK Metcalf and Lockett, you're not going to be successful doing it with anyone. And, add the fact that none of his former teammates seem all that fond of him, I think this is arguably the worst trade/extension in NFL history.

I don't disagree that the trade was a terrible one, and this certainly puts a bow on it. My point is just that his specific performance against the Patriots wasn't the reason for the benching, considering Payton's timeout usage and the defense are what cost them the game, and if they won the game, there's no consideration of benching Russ.

It's at least partially performance-related, because if he was playing well, they wouldn't be letting him go, and therefore he wouldn't be getting benched.

Sure, if he played better over the course of the season, they'd probably have more wins, and their season might not have hinged on beating the floating Patriots. But much like the Bills firing of Ken Dorsey after the 12 men on the field penalty, I still think that one Patriots completion which Russ had nothing to do with ultimately caused the benching. If that doesn't happen and they beat the Pats in OT (probable), he's starting Week 17.

Russell Wilson getting benched. I have never had a more correct sports take.

I think this is arguably the worst trade/extension in NFL history.

Oh, quit while you're ahead. 

You attributed this quote to me, but I must point out it was from Jayhawkco. 

[DenverBrian]

Russell Wilson getting benched. I have never had a more correct sports take.

I wouldn't go that far. Wilson has been "OK" this season - not Seattle good, certainly not good enough to justify the massive trade, but not terrible either.

But more importantly, this is not a performance-related benching; it's being done strictly for financial reasons. There's 0% chance it happens if they don't gag against the Patriots, because they'd have a real shot at the playoffs. Instead, season over.

I'm not patting myself on the back too much, since I've had plenty of misses too. But when the Broncos signed him, so many people around the country (and on this website) thought for sure he would make them a playoff team and a possible Super Bowl candidate. I said he would be a net negative, and I still maintain he has been. He's a guy with a "holier than thou" public persona that isn't that same person in the locker room and he lost his deep ball about 4 years ago. If you can't throw for yardage with DK Metcalf and Lockett, you're not going to be successful doing it with anyone. And, add the fact that none of his former teammates seem all that fond of him, I think this is arguably the worst trade/extension in NFL history.

The Cleveland Browns would like a word re Deshaun Watson...

[JayhawkCO]

Russell Wilson getting benched. I have never had a more correct sports take.

I wouldn't go that far. Wilson has been "OK" this season - not Seattle good, certainly not good enough to justify the massive trade, but not terrible either.

But more importantly, this is not a performance-related benching; it's being done strictly for financial reasons. There's 0% chance it happens if they don't gag against the Patriots, because they'd have a real shot at the playoffs. Instead, season over.

I'm not patting myself on the back too much, since I've had plenty of misses too. But when the Broncos signed him, so many people around the country (and on this website) thought for sure he would make them a playoff team and a possible Super Bowl candidate. I said he would be a net negative, and I still maintain he has been. He's a guy with a "holier than thou" public persona that isn't that same person in the locker room and he lost his deep ball about 4 years ago. If you can't throw for yardage with DK Metcalf and Lockett, you're not going to be successful doing it with anyone. And, add the fact that none of his former teammates seem all that fond of him, I think this is arguably the worst trade/extension in NFL history.

The Cleveland Browns would like a word re Deshaun Watson...

I'd argue he's played better than Wilson, when he's been healthy. Not by a ton, but slightly better.

[thspfc]

Reminder that today is the last day to fork teams. Everyone count up and make sure you have 18.

[NWI_Irish96]

Forks: Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals

Add Bears, Broncos, Panthers, Giants

Add Titans, Jets, Giants, Rams

So I'm currently at 7 AFC teams and 7 NFC teams. Going to give the Saints/Falcons a couple more weeks before I make my last call in the NFC. Safe to add the Chargers in the AFC. Will hold off on my last one, though I'm leaning Bengals.

So my updated list:

AFC: Patriots, Jets, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Colts
NFC: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Bears, Giants, Bucs, Packers

This has been such an unpredictable season that it's going to take some luck to win, unlike last year when it was clearly all skill.

Pretty likely to be wrong on at least one of Colts/Bucs if not both.

Gonna take the Broncos and Bengals for my last AFC teams and the Falcons and Vikings for my last NFC teams.

[1995hoo]

Russell Wilson getting benched. I have never had a more correct sports take.

This gives those of us in DC another reason to be glad Dan Snyder is no longer the owner here. Imagine what sort of crazy trade package he might have put together to try to land Wilson.

BTW, assuming Jacoby Brissett in fact starts as scheduled this weekend, check out the following graphic a local reporter posted to Twitter. It contains one minor error in that Josh Johnson was the starter after Mark Sanchez, not before. The "Haskins era," such it was, doesn't seem all that long ago, yet look at how many quarterbacks they've had since then.

[thspfc]

Forks: Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals

Add Bears, Broncos, Panthers, Giants

Add Titans, Jets, Giants, Rams

So I'm currently at 7 AFC teams and 7 NFC teams. Going to give the Saints/Falcons a couple more weeks before I make my last call in the NFC. Safe to add the Chargers in the AFC. Will hold off on my last one, though I'm leaning Bengals.

So my updated list:

AFC: Patriots, Jets, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Colts
NFC: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Bears, Giants, Bucs, Packers

This has been such an unpredictable season that it's going to take some luck to win, unlike last year when it was clearly all skill.

Pretty likely to be wrong on at least one of Colts/Bucs if not both.

Gonna take the Broncos and Bengals for my last AFC teams and the Falcons and Vikings for my last NFC teams.

If my count is correct, that puts you at 19 teams. (You already had the Broncos, way back in September.) So you can have two of those other three. 

jayhawkco and Hunty2022 both have one left to use if I count correctly.

[NWI_Irish96]

Forks: Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals

Add Bears, Broncos, Panthers, Giants

Add Titans, Jets, Giants, Rams

So I'm currently at 7 AFC teams and 7 NFC teams. Going to give the Saints/Falcons a couple more weeks before I make my last call in the NFC. Safe to add the Chargers in the AFC. Will hold off on my last one, though I'm leaning Bengals.

So my updated list:

AFC: Patriots, Jets, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Colts
NFC: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Bears, Giants, Bucs, Packers

This has been such an unpredictable season that it's going to take some luck to win, unlike last year when it was clearly all skill.

Pretty likely to be wrong on at least one of Colts/Bucs if not both.

Gonna take the Broncos and Bengals for my last AFC teams and the Falcons and Vikings for my last NFC teams.

If my count is correct, that puts you at 19 teams. (You already had the Broncos, way back in September.) So you can have two of those other three. 

jayhawkco and Hunty2022 both have one left to use if I count correctly.

I'm having the worst time trying to keep these straight.

Before today, I had:
NFC - Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals, Bears, Panthers, Giants, Rams
AFC - Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Broncos, Titans, Jets

So, I will take the Vikings for my last NFC team and the Bengals and Steelers for my last AFC teams. I think I have 9 from each conference now.

[thspfc]

Green = eliminated, or extremely unlikely to make it
Black = out for now, but has a plausible path
Orange = in for now, but not clinched
Red = clinched

jlam
Cardinals (25)
Colts (25)
Buccaneers (25)
Texans (25)
Raiders (25)
Panthers (25)
Bears (25)
Packers (25)
Broncos (20)
Jets (20)
Patriots (20)
Giants (20)
Vikings (15)
Rams (15)
Steelers (15)
Commanders (15)
Titans (10)
Bengals (10)

Total: 360
Out: 10
Clinched: 0

webny99
Rams (25)
Cardinals (25)
Colts (25)
Titans (25)
Texans (25)
Bucs (25)
Panthers (25)
Bears (20)
Raiders (20)
Steelers (20)
Patriots (20)
Giants (20)
Packers (15)
Bills (10)
Jets (10)
Commanders (10)
Bengals (10)
Falcons (10)

Total: 340
Out: 9
Clinched: 0

thspfc
Texans (25)
Colts (25)
Raiders (25)
Commanders (25)
Bears (25)
Falcons (25)
Buccaneers (25)
Cardinals (25)
Giants (25)
Patriots (25)
Steelers (25)
Broncos (20)
Panthers (20)
Jets (20)
Vikings (20)
Packers (15)
Titans (15)
Chargers (10)

Total: 395
Out: 11
Clinched: 0

Henry
Bears (25)
Broncos (25)
Browns (25)
Buccaneers (25)
Cardinals (25)
Colts (25)
Commanders (25)
Cowboys (25)
Falcons (25)
Jets (25)
Panthers (25)
Patriots (25)
Raiders (25)
Rams (25)
Ravens (25)
Texans (25)

Total: (400 - 25 - 25 - 30 - 30) = 290
Out: 8
Clinched: 2

NWI_Irish96
Patriots (25)
Colts (25)
Texans (25)
Raiders (25)
Commanders (25)
Packers (25)
Bucs (25)
Cardinals (25)
Bears (20)
Broncos (20)
Panthers (20)
Giants (20)
Titans (10)
Jets (10)
Rams (10)
Chargers (10)
Bengals (5)
Vikings (5)

Total: 330
Out: 11
Clinched: 0

jayhawkco
Cardinals (25)
Packers (25)
Panthers (25)
Buccaneers (25)
Texans (25)
Browns (25)
Broncos (25)
Colts (25)
Raiders (25)
Patriots (25)
Jets (20)
Giants (20)
Bears (20)
Vikings (20)
Bengals (20)
Steelers (20)
Commanders (15)

Total: 365
Out: 9
Clinched: 0

Hunty2022
Bears (25)
Bucs (25)
Cardinals (25)
Colts (25)
Packers (25)
Texans (25)
Broncos (20)
Jets (20)
Panthers (15)
Giants (15)
Patriots (10)
Rams (10)
Titans (10)
Bills (10)
Bengals (10)
Commanders (10)
Chargers (5)

Total: 285
Out: 10
Clinched: 0

Forks: Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals

Add Bears, Broncos, Panthers, Giants

Add Titans, Jets, Giants, Rams

So I'm currently at 7 AFC teams and 7 NFC teams. Going to give the Saints/Falcons a couple more weeks before I make my last call in the NFC. Safe to add the Chargers in the AFC. Will hold off on my last one, though I'm leaning Bengals.

So my updated list:

AFC: Patriots, Jets, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Colts
NFC: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Bears, Giants, Bucs, Packers

This has been such an unpredictable season that it's going to take some luck to win, unlike last year when it was clearly all skill.

Pretty likely to be wrong on at least one of Colts/Bucs if not both.

Gonna take the Broncos and Bengals for my last AFC teams and the Falcons and Vikings for my last NFC teams.

If my count is correct, that puts you at 19 teams. (You already had the Broncos, way back in September.) So you can have two of those other three. 

jayhawkco and Hunty2022 both have one left to use if I count correctly.

I'm having the worst time trying to keep these straight.

Before today, I had:
NFC - Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals, Bears, Panthers, Giants, Rams
AFC - Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Broncos, Titans, Jets

So, I will take the Vikings for my last NFC team and the Bengals and Steelers for my last AFC teams. I think I have 9 from each conference now.

You also have the Chargers in the AFC:

Forks: Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals

Add Bears, Broncos, Panthers, Giants

Add Titans, Jets, Giants, Rams

So I'm currently at 7 AFC teams and 8 NFC teams. Going to give the Saints/Falcons a couple more weeks before I make my last call in the NFC. Safe to add the Chargers in the AFC. Will hold off on my last one, though I'm leaning Bengals.

So my updated list:

AFC: Patriots, Jets, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Colts
NFC: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Bears, Giants, Bucs, Packers

Prior to today, you had the . . .

Patriots, Jets, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Colts, Broncos (8)
Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Bears, Giants, Bucs, Packers, Rams (8)

Forks: Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals

Add Bears, Broncos, Panthers, Giants

Add Titans, Jets, Giants, Rams

For now I'm giving you the Vikings and Bengals to get to 18, unless you'd rather have the Steelers.

[NWI_Irish96]

For now I'm giving you the Vikings and Bengals to get to 18, unless you'd rather have the Steelers.

Bengals.

[thspfc]

For now I'm giving you the Vikings and Bengals to get to 18, unless you'd rather have the Steelers.

Bengals.

Sounds good.


I wanted to calculate everyone's chances of winning as of right now, but with the chaos of the standings, it seems like a lot more work than it's worth. In short, I believe these are the simplest scenarios for each of us to win:

thspfc wins if: the Rams make the playoffs, the Falcons do not, and at least one of the following five things happens: Bills make it, Bengals make it, Steelers miss, Vikings miss, Packers miss. According to NYT, there is a 58% chance of that happening (discounting the final leg, as it's essentially guaranteed.) That's not the only scenario in which I win, but it is the simplest.

jlam wins if: the Rams miss, the Bengals miss, the Browns make it, and the Falcons make it. Roughly 3%.

Irish wins if: the Rams miss, the Bengals miss, the Falcons make it, and the Steelers make it. 0.03%.

webny99 wins if: the Rams miss, the Bills miss, the Bengals miss, the Falcons miss, the Vikings make it, and the Broncos make it. That's an astonishing 0.04%.

jayhawkCO wins if: for starters, the Browns would have to miss. We'll cross that bridge when we (probably don't) get there.

Hunty2022 wins if: I'm not sure, it might be possible, but incredibly unlikely.


Obviously those percentages add up to nowhere close to 100. I think most of the remaining ~38% is my equity. My guess is I'm in the 90-95% range. Go Rams, and go whoever plays the Falcons.

[webny99]

I wanted to calculate everyone's chances of winning as of right now, but with the chaos of the standings, it seems like a lot more work than it's worth. In short, I believe these are the simplest scenarios for each of us to win:

Thought I had the NFC nailed down but the Rams and Bucs may ultimately cost me. I should still have 7 of 9 as long as the Vikings or Seahawks make it, or if the Saints somehow make it, I'll have a backup. But by the same token, at no point during the 10+ points period did it made sense to fork the Vikings, Seahawks, or Saints... so I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed.

Not forking the Chargers was easily my biggest whiff. A 2nd AFC South team will likely get in, but that was the chance I took by forking them all in the preseason. The Broncos getting in at 9-8 is my most likely path to getting 8 of 9 in the AFC, so it's looking like it will be 7 of 9, at least barring the Jags falling right out of the picture.

That should be at least 14 of 18 correct. Imperfect, but I'll take it.

[Brandon]

As far as I'm concerned...

• I give the Detroit Lions better chances than the Cowboys in making it to the NFC championship, and maybe a dark horse making the Super Bowl.

I used to give the apocalypse better odds than the Lions making the Super Bowl.  If they somehow don't screw this up and make it, Giant Meteor 2024 anyone?

[Max Rockatansky]

I've been long committed to making a very expensive purchase of two tickets if the Lions ever make the Super Bowl.  My dad went into his grave wanting to see the Lions in the Super Bowl.  I might as take the opportunity if it ever comes to fruition. 

[thspfc]

The preseason has officially begun, with the Hall of Fame game between the Browns and Jets.

And...both teams are officially out of the playoffs.

I would be shocked if neither make it.

Through an apocalypse of quarterback injuries, it got there eventually.    First team in league history to make the playoffs after starting four different QBs in a season.

[ozarkman417]

Got home from work around halftime of the TNF game (Jets @ Browns). The half I missed saw fifty-one points scored.

The next half? Three (per team). First game in NFL History to see 50+ 1st half points and see no touchdowns the next.

[Hot Rod Hootenanny]

The preseason has officially begun, with the Hall of Fame game between the Browns and Jets.

And...both teams are officially out of the playoffs.

I would be shocked if neither make it.

Through an apocalypse of quarterback injuries, it got there eventually.    First team in league history to make the playoffs after starting four different QBs in a season.

Strange, I could have swore the 1988 Browns got into the playoffs with 4 starting QBs (Kosar, Danielson, Pagel, & Strock)

[Big John]

The preseason has officially begun, with the Hall of Fame game between the Browns and Jets.

And...both teams are officially out of the playoffs.

I would be shocked if neither make it.

Through an apocalypse of quarterback injuries, it got there eventually.    First team in league history to make the playoffs after starting four different QBs in a season.

Strange, I could have swore the 1988 Browns got into the playoffs with 4 starting QBs (Kosar, Danielson, Pagel, & Strock)

Very good catch. I looked it up to verify.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Isn't Russell Wilson's benching as much financial and contractual as it is performance (although he hasn't been that great).

[JayhawkCO]

Isn't Russell Wilson's benching as much financial and contractual as it is performance (although he hasn't been that great).

Insofar as he's played like shit so they want to have financial flexibility to cut him. If he was playing well, even if they weren't in the playoff hunt, he'd be starting no matter what contractual guarantees kicked in.