NFL (2024 Season)

[mgk920]

According to thspfc a few posts up, the Lions had only a 7.5% chance of winning in overtime.  You two should get together and figure it out.

Absolutely mind-numbing decision from Campbell to go for two down by one from the 7. 50% chance of winning in overtime.

|thspfc| separated that into two sentences. Detroit's two-point conversion attempt was from the 7, and if they chose to bring the game into OT instead, they would have had about a 50% chance of winning (assumedly).

What were the odds of the game ending in a draw?

Mike

[Big John]

Bears only way to avoid elimination last night was for the Vikings and Packers to tie, which did not happen.

Bears have clinched the #1 overall pick though. Caleb Williams available to the highest bidder.

Yup! Time for the Bears to grab MHJ or other teams can send us your 1st round picks for a chance at Caleb

My thoughts exactly! When was the last time the Bears had a good QB anyway?

Sid Luckman

[ZLoth]

Looks like the Cowboys and Eagles will separately be battling for the NFC East title next week, which probably means no resting starters for either team.

But, will it be Eagles for the early game and Cowboys for the late gate, or a head-to-head with both teams having the late game. Only the NFL knows at the moment.

My guess on the Bill-Dolphins as next week's SNF game.

Both the Cowboys @ Commandos and Eagles @ Giants games are afternoon games. Bills @ Dolphins are SNF games to determine the AFC East division title and the AFC 2 and 6 seeds.

[thspfc]

According to thspfc a few posts up, the Lions had only a 7.5% chance of winning in overtime.  You two should get together and figure it out.

Absolutely mind-numbing decision from Campbell to go for two down by one from the 7. 50% chance of winning in overtime.

|thspfc| separated that into two sentences. Detroit's two-point conversion attempt was from the 7, and if they chose to bring the game into OT instead, they would have had about a 50% chance of winning (assumedly).

What were the odds of the game ending in a draw?

Mike

Functionally it doesn't matter. Any equity of a tie would be split 50/50 between the two teams (since a tie is half a win). So it's still an expected value of 0.5 wins, or theoretically a 50% chance of winning.

[webny99]

My ideal scenario next week is a Steelers win and a Jags win, locking the 10-7 Steelers out of the playoffs. If there's one team that I would ever wish a playoff-less 10-win season on, it's this Steelers team. Let them continue to think they're on the right track with that roster.

I know we share the same general sentiment regarding the Steelers, but I couldn't possibly disagree more about wanting them to win next week. I will be FURIOUS if the Ravens don't play their starters with three GREAT reasons to do so; (1) to show they learned their lesson from 2019 when they took a double bye and came out extremely flat in the divisional round, (2) to beat their most hated rival and end their season, and (3) to get revenge for that terrible Week 5 loss that was the biggest travesty of the season and is the only reason Pittsburgh is alive in the playoff conversation to begin with.

And of course, a Steelers loss will clinch a playoff berth for the Buffalo Bills. I simply cannot fathom an elimination game on SNF that would give the Bills' playoff spot to the Steelers if they lose. I already can't believe they beat the Seahawks to draw out Western NY's collective agony for another week (Bills would have clinched a playoff berth with a Seahawks win) and am sick to my stomach just thinking about them potentially winning again this week. I generally don't publicize my rooting interests, but I'm making an exception this week. GO RAVENS!!!

[jeffandnicole]

My ideal scenario next week is a Steelers win and a Jags win, locking the 10-7 Steelers out of the playoffs. If there's one team that I would ever wish a playoff-less 10-win season on, it's this Steelers team. Let them continue to think they're on the right track with that roster.

I know we share the same general sentiment regarding the Steelers, but I couldn't possibly disagree more about wanting them to win next week. I will be FURIOUS if the Ravens don't play their starters with three GREAT reasons to do so; (1) to show they learned their lesson from 2019 when they took a double bye and came out extremely flat in the divisional round, (2) to beat their most hated rival and end their season, and (3) to get revenge for that terrible Week 5 loss that was the biggest travesty of the season and is the only reason Pittsburgh is alive in the playoff conversation to begin with.

And of course, a Steelers loss will clinch a playoff berth for the Buffalo Bills. I simply cannot fathom an elimination game on SNF that would give the Bills' playoff spot to the Steelers if they lose. I already can't believe they beat the Seahawks to draw out Western NY's collective agony for another week (Bills would have clinched a playoff berth with a Seahawks win) and am sick to my stomach just thinking about them potentially winning again this week. I generally don't publicize my rooting interests, but I'm making an exception this week. GO RAVENS!!!

The normal starters may start, but they'll play a series or less.  Teams don't risk playing starters in meaningless games before they move on to the playoffs..

[Hunty2022]

I'll fork the Vikings.

[thspfc]

I'll fork the Vikings.

Too late. Past week 17 and they're already out.

[jlam]

I'll fork the Vikings.

Too late. Past week 17 and they're already out.

The Vikings can theoretically still make the playoffs if they win and the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints/Buccaneers lose—still a 3% chance.

[KeithE4Phx]

I'll fork the Vikings.

Too late. Past week 17 and they're already out.

Their chances are about as slim as a gnat's nose hair, but they are not eliminated.  They can get the NFC 7th slot if all of the following happen:

Vikings beat the Lions (Fox early game)
Falcons beat the Saints (CBS early game)
Cardinals beat the Seahawks (Fox late game)
Bears beat the Packers (CBS late game)

[KeithE4Phx]

The Vikings can theoretically still make the playoffs if they win and the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints/Buccaneers lose—still a 3% chance.

A Bucs loss won't affect the Vikings if the other scenarios I listed come true, but it will give the Falcons the NFC South title and the 4th seed if they beat the Saints.

[triplemultiplex]

You know, I hate to admit but for all my personal grumbling about how the added wild cards lower the bar to let mediocre teams play in January, all this chatter about who can get in and how is kinda fun.  Maybe I'll be back to that opinion after all the 7 seeds get stomped, but for now, I get it.  I can see why they did it.  We're engaged. Talking about games that would not have mattered before.

I'll still bemoan the added game, however.  Props to CeeDee for breaking those season records this week so they're legitimate.
No record broken in week 18 can be legitimately compared to any record set when there were 16 games.

[webny99]

The normal starters may start, but they'll play a series or less.  Teams don't risk playing starters in meaningless games before they move on to the playoffs..

That's often true, but not always. Last years Chargers were widely criticized for playing starters in a meaningless game, so did the Bills in an almost-meaningless season finale in 2020 in quite similar circumstances where they could end a division rival (Dolphins) season.

And the double bye factor cannot be overlooked, especially with the Ravens having that recent experience in 2019 of being one of the most dominant teams in NFL history and following it up with one of the biggest playoff stinkers/upsets in NFL history after a two-week bye. That year, they beat Pittsburgh in the regular season finale with their backups. I would be rooting for them to do the same this year, but would still vastly prefer they play their starters.

[Buck87]

I love the annual list of playoff clinching scenarios going into the final week.

Here's this year's, taken from the NFL website:

AFC:

CLINCHED:

Baltimore Ravens (13-3) – AFC North division title, No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and homefield advantage

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) – AFC West division title

Cleveland Browns (11-5) – playoff berth, No. 5 seed

Miami Dolphins (11-5) – playoff berth

***​**

BUFFALO BILLS (10-6) at Miami (11-5); Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC​

Buffalo clinches AFC East division title with:

BUF win

Buffalo clinches playoff berth with:

BUF tie OR
PIT loss or tie OR
JAX loss or tie OR
HOU-IND tie

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-7) at Indianapolis (9-7); Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

Houston clinches AFC South division title with:

HOU win + JAX loss or tie

Houston clinches playoff berth with:

HOU win OR
HOU tie + JAX loss + PIT loss or tie
** ​**

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-7) vs. Houston (9-7); Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

Indianapolis clinches AFC South division title with:

IND win + JAX loss or tie OR
IND tie + JAX loss

Indianapolis clinches playoff berth with:

IND win OR
IND tie + PIT loss or tie
​
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-7) at Tennessee (5-11); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Jacksonville clinches AFC South division title with:

JAX win OR
JAX tie + IND-HOU tie

Jacksonville clinches playoff berth with:

JAX tie + PIT loss or tie OR
PIT loss + DEN loss or tie + HOU-IND doesn't end in tie
​
MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-5) vs. Buffalo (10-6); Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Miami clinches AFC East division title with:

MIA win or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7) at Baltimore (13-3); Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

Pittsburgh clinches playoff berth with:

PIT win + BUF loss OR
PIT win + JAX loss or tie OR
PIT win + HOU-IND tie OR
PIT tie + JAX loss + HOU-IND doesn't end in tie OR
JAX loss + DEN win + HOU-IND doesn't end in tie

NFC:

CLINCHED:

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) – NFC West division title, No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and homefield advantage

Detroit Lions (11-5) – NFC North division title

Dallas Cowboys (11-5) – playoff berth

Los Angeles Rams (9-7) – playoff berth

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) – playoff berth

*****

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-9) at New Orleans (8-8); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Atlanta clinches NFC South division title with:

ATL win + TB loss

DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5) at Washington (4-12); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Dallas clinches NFC East division title with:

DAL win OR
DAL tie + PHI tie OR
PHI loss

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8) vs. Chicago (7-9); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Green Bay clinches playoff berth with:

GB win OR
GB tie + SEA loss or tie + NO loss or tie OR
GB tie + SEA loss + TB loss OR
GB tie + SEA tie + TB loss or tie OR
MIN loss or tie + SEA loss + TB loss OR
MIN loss or tie + SEA loss + NO loss

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-9) at Detroit (11-5); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Minnesota clinches playoff berth with:

MIN win + GB loss + SEA loss + TB loss OR
MIN win + GB loss + SEA loss + NO loss

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-8) vs. Atlanta (7-9); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

New Orleans clinches NFC South division title with:

NO win + TB loss or tie OR
NO tie + TB loss

New Orleans clinches playoff berth with:

NO win + SEA loss or tie + GB loss or tie OR
NO tie + SEA loss + GB loss
** ​**

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5) at N.Y. Giants (5-11); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Philadelphia clinches NFC East division title with:

PHI win + DAL loss or tie OR
PHI tie + DAL loss

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-8) at Arizona (4-12); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Seattle clinches playoff berth with:

SEA win + GB loss or tie OR
SEA tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie OR
SEA tie + GB loss + NO loss or tie

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-8) at Carolina (2-14); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Tampa Bay clinches NFC South division title with:

TB win OR
TB tie + NO loss or tie

Tampa Bay clinches playoff berth with:

TB tie + SEA loss + GB loss or tie

[NWI_Irish96]

Sunday is a win-win for Bears fans.

A loss secures a higher draft pick and the 4th place schedule for next season (games against CAR and NE).

A win likely knocks the Packers out of the playoffs and is more confidence heading into next season.

[jmacswimmer]

^

It's crazy to think how, if not for the 3 blown leads against Denver, Detroit & Cleveland, the Bears would likely be controlling their own destiny for a wild-card spot. Setting that small disappointment aside and looking at the bigger picture, the Bears have definitely come a long way from the start of the season. The Montez Sweat trade immediately elevated the entire defense, to the point where I think the 2 largest needs (ignoring the QB situation for a moment) are now WR & C.

The strong finish to the season coupled with the arrow seemingly pointing up sets up quite the interesting offseason, and there's a lot of different ways to go given the clinched #1 pick from Carolina. The latest "insider" rumor seems to be that Eberflus has saved his job with the strong finish & defensive turnaround (especially given he took over playcalling), but I wonder whether Getsy could still be shown the door at OC. Meanwhile, the Bears could reset at QB and take Williams first overall, or they could repeat last year and trade down again...and given the QB crop this year, I can't help but wonder if the potential trade haul could be even higher this year compared to the already-large haul they received from Carolina.

I may have previously mentioned this, but I'll never forget being in attendance at FedEx Field earlier this season for what turned out to be the Bears's first win in nearly a calendar year as well as DJ Moore's career day (speaking of the Carolina trade...his performance this season makes his inclusion in that trade even more of a robbery than it already was). Also made the trek to Cleveland for the Browns game a few weeks ago, but that was far less memorable courtesy of the aforementioned blown lead (as well as certain Browns fans, but that's neither here nor there).

Looking ahead to next season, the Bears will have an away game at either FedEx Field (again) or MetLife Stadium depending on how Bears/Vikings & Commanders/Giants finish within their divisions, and I might also consider the Colts game as an excuse to take a roadtrip west. Taking advantage of Bears away games along the east coast over the past couple seasons has started to turn into a hobby of checking out different football stadiums, and Lucas Oil Stadium has always looked like a pretty cool venue.

[webny99]

The Vikings can theoretically still make the playoffs if they win and the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints/Buccaneers lose—still a 3% chance.

A Bucs loss won't affect the Vikings if the other scenarios I listed come true, but it will give the Falcons the NFC South title and the 4th seed if they beat the Saints.

The Bucs are the only team where, barring tie scenarios, nothing matters for them except their own game. If they win, they're NFC South champions. If they lose, they're eliminated from playoff contention.

You know, I hate to admit but for all my personal grumbling about how the added wild cards lower the bar to let mediocre teams play in January, all this chatter about who can get in and how is kinda fun.  Maybe I'll be back to that opinion after all the 7 seeds get stomped, but for now, I get it.  I can see why they did it.  We're engaged. Talking about games that would not have mattered before.

Yup. 13 of 16 games in Week 18 (including 8 of 8 in the NFC!) have playoff or seeding implications. Every division except the AFC West has at least one team with their playoff fate hanging in the balances.

And a whole bunch of eliminated teams have great opportunities to play spoiler. In fact, there are only 5 eliminated teams in the NFC and they can all shake up the playoff picture with a win in Week 18:

• Giants vs. Eagles - could eliminate Eagles from division contention
• Commanders vs. Cowboys - could allow Eagles to steal NFC East
• Panthers vs. Bucs - could eliminate Bucs and make Saints-Falcons a division title game
• Bears vs. Packers - could eliminate Packers and allow Seahawks or Vikings to sneak in
• Cardinals vs. Seahawks - could eliminate Seahawks and allow Saints or Vikings to sneak in

Meanwhile, over in the AFC there are only four games that truly matter but they're all pretty good. Steelers-Ravens is interesting for reasons mentioned upthread, the Colts and Texans face off Saturday in an elimination game, and the Bills and Dolphins play for the AFC East on SNF. The Titans, playing the Jags, are the only AFC team with a true "spoiler" opportunity. If the Titans win, the winner of Colts-Texans wins the AFC South, but the Jags would still have a chance at a Wild Card. Because of tiebreakers, they would need a Steelers loss and a Raiders win, which is the lone playoff implication of Broncos-Raiders.

Chiefs-Chargers has no playoff implications with the Chiefs already locked into the #3 seed. Likewise the Browns, playing the Bengals, are locked into the #5 seed. And finally, the Patriots and Jets are both eliminated so there's no implications there other than it would be nice if the Jets beat Belichick for a change.

[webny99]

I love the annual list of playoff clinching scenarios going into the final week.

Same here, but if you don't mind, I did a bit of trimming and removed any scenario that involves a tie to create a more concise version. 

AFC:

CLINCHED:

Baltimore Ravens (13-3) – AFC North division title, No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and homefield advantage
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) – AFC West division title
Cleveland Browns (11-5) – playoff berth, No. 5 seed
Miami Dolphins (11-5) – playoff berth

***​**

BUFFALO BILLS (10-6) at Miami (11-5); Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC​
Buffalo clinches AFC East division title with: BUF win
Buffalo clinches playoff berth with: PIT loss OR JAX loss

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-7) at Indianapolis (9-7); Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
Houston clinches AFC South division title with: HOU win + JAX loss
Houston clinches playoff berth with: HOU win

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-7) vs. Houston (9-7); Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
Indianapolis clinches AFC South division title with: IND win + JAX loss
Indianapolis clinches playoff berth with: IND win
​
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-7) at Tennessee (5-11); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Jacksonville clinches AFC South division title with: JAX win
Jacksonville clinches playoff berth with: PIT loss + DEN loss

MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-5) vs. Buffalo (10-6); Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Miami clinches AFC East division title with: MIA win

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7) at Baltimore (13-3); Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
Pittsburgh clinches playoff berth with:
PIT win + BUF loss OR
PIT win + JAX loss OR
JAX loss + DEN win


NFC:

CLINCHED:

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) – NFC West division title, No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and homefield advantage
Detroit Lions (11-5) – NFC North division title
Dallas Cowboys (11-5) – playoff berth
Los Angeles Rams (9-7) – playoff berth
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) – playoff berth

*****

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-9) at New Orleans (8-8); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Atlanta clinches NFC South division title with: ATL win + TB loss

DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5) at Washington (4-12); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Dallas clinches NFC East division title with: DAL win OR PHI loss

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8) vs. Chicago (7-9); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Green Bay clinches playoff berth with: GB win OR MIN loss + SEA loss + (NO loss OR TB loss)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-9) at Detroit (11-5); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Minnesota clinches playoff berth with: MIN win + GB loss + SEA loss + (NO loss OR TB loss)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-8) vs. Atlanta (7-9); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
New Orleans clinches NFC South division title with: NO win + TB loss
New Orleans clinches playoff berth with: NO win + SEA loss + GB loss

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5) at N.Y. Giants (5-11); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Philadelphia clinches NFC East division title with: PHI win + DAL loss

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-8) at Arizona (4-12); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Seattle clinches playoff berth with: SEA win + GB loss

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-8) at Carolina (2-14); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Tampa Bay clinches NFC South division title with: TB win

[thspfc]

You know, I hate to admit but for all my personal grumbling about how the added wild cards lower the bar to let mediocre teams play in January, all this chatter about who can get in and how is kinda fun.  Maybe I'll be back to that opinion after all the 7 seeds get stomped, but for now, I get it.  I can see why they did it.  We're engaged. Talking about games that would not have mattered before.

I'll still bemoan the added game, however.  Props to CeeDee for breaking those season records this week so they're legitimate.
No record broken in week 18 can be legitimately compared to any record set when there were 16 games.

I slightly disagree on the week 18 point - what matters are the averages across all games. If you go off for a huge performance in week 18 to break a record, that's no different than someone doing that in week 17 before. Regress all the numbers from 17 to 16 games to determine whether a record withstands the extra game asterisk.


Victory in our forks competition is not yet locked up with one week to go. I need any of the following things to happen:
- Bills make it, or
- Falcons don't, or
- Steelers don't, or
- Both the Packers and Vikings don't

Therefore, I win unless all of the following things occur:
- Steelers beat Ravens
- Jaguars beat Titans
- Falcons beat Saints
- Panthers beat Bucs
- Dolphins beat Bills
- Packers beat Bears OR the rocket sceince that leads to either the 8-9 Packers or 8-9 Vikings getting in

[jgb191]

I still can't get over what happened last year:  My Christmas wish was for Chargers and Raiders to tie each other up in Week 18 and both clinch Wild Cards.  Instead the Raiders went against my wish and beat the Chargers, sending the Steelers to KC in the First round of playoffs.  I may have mentioned this before, but my wish was ultimately for Big Ben Rothlissberger to end his career-finale game with a 'W' at Baltimore against his long-time nemesis Ravens, instead of ending his career in a loss at Arrowhead, hence why I wanted the Chargers/Raiders tie game.

[Big John]

I still can't get over what happened last year:  My Christmas wish was for Chargers and Raiders to tie each other up in Week 18 and both clinch Wild Cards.  Instead the Raiders went against my wish and beat the Chargers, sending the Steelers to KC in the First round of playoffs.  I may have mentioned this before, but my wish was ultimately for Big Ben Rothlissberger to end his career-finale game with a 'W' at Baltimore against his long-time nemesis Ravens, instead of ending his career in a loss at Arrowhead, hence why I wanted the Chargers/Raiders tie game.

2 years ago.

[jgb191]

2 years ago.

Amazing how fast time flew by faster than I can keep up with.  I keep seeing in my head it like it happened just yesterday.  As you can see I'm still not over it.

[webny99]

2 years ago.

Amazing how fast time flew by faster than I can keep up with.  I keep seeing in my head it like it happened just yesterday.  As you can see I'm still not over it.

That Chargers-Raiders season finale remains one of the wildest games in NFL history. Came down to the final seconds of OT to determine who would advance to the postseason.

[jgb191]

2 years ago.

Amazing how fast time flew by faster than I can keep up with.  I keep seeing in my head it like it happened just yesterday.  As you can see I'm still not over it.

That Chargers-Raiders season finale remains one of the wildest games in NFL history. Came down to the final seconds of OT to determine who would advance to the postseason.

It might have altered the course of the playoffs and perhaps even the Super Bowl.  The Bengals, Chiefs, and Bills could have had different Wild Card opponents, which might have had different results than what actually happened, resulting in another team (not the Bengals) making it to the Super Bowl, and if that had happened, we're not sure if the LA Rams (and Matthew Stafford) would have won the Super Bowl LVI.

Just goes to show the "Butterfly" effect of a single decision by the Raiders to kick the winning FG in OT probably would have changed the season's ultimate outcome.  Maybe Matthew Stafford ought to mail a Thank-You card to the Raiders for the AFC Playoffs and Super Bowl unfolding the way it did.

[webny99]

If the Titans win, the winner of Colts-Texans wins the AFC South, but the Jags would still have a chance at a Wild Card. Because of tiebreakers, they would need a Steelers loss and a Raiders win, which is the lone playoff implication of Broncos-Raiders.

To phrase this another way: If the Steelers and Jaguars both lose, Broncos-Raiders will decide the final AFC Wild Card spot.

If the Broncos win, the Steelers are the 7 seed.
If the Raiders win, the Jaguars are the 7 seed.