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Oddities that defy conventional wisdom - POPULATION edition

Started by webny99, September 23, 2022, 02:20:19 PM

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Dirt Roads

Quote from: SkyPesos on September 27, 2022, 10:19:23 PMNC have two of these "separated MSAs that should really be one" examples: Greensboro-Winston Salem and Raleigh-Durham

Quote from: formulanone on September 28, 2022, 09:40:03 AM
If the former is The Triad, and the latter is The Triangle...Welcome to the Tridangle / Hex Cities / Sexboros!

Maybe it's best they stay apart; it's a roughly 75/90-minute drive between them.

Your information is way out-of-date.  We have three MSAs in Central Carolina:  Raleigh/Cary MSA; Durham/Chapel Hill MSA; and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point (Triad).  The Triangle got busted up back in 2000, if I recall correctly.


interstatefan990

Quote from: DTComposer on September 28, 2022, 08:23:10 PM
For what it's worth, the next two entries on the tourism list (and the last two provided in the source list) are:
Monterey - #26 tourism, #124 metro population, 98 difference
Naples - #27 tourism, #141 metro population, 114 difference

Those could be considered outliers like Flagstaff, right?
Multi-lane roundabouts are an abomination to mankind.

Road Hog

Quote from: Dirt Roads on September 28, 2022, 08:57:54 PM
Quote from: SkyPesos on September 27, 2022, 10:19:23 PMNC have two of these "separated MSAs that should really be one" examples: Greensboro-Winston Salem and Raleigh-Durham

Quote from: formulanone on September 28, 2022, 09:40:03 AM
If the former is The Triad, and the latter is The Triangle...Welcome to the Tridangle / Hex Cities / Sexboros!

Maybe it's best they stay apart; it's a roughly 75/90-minute drive between them.

Your information is way out-of-date.  We have three MSAs in Central Carolina:  Raleigh/Cary MSA; Durham/Chapel Hill MSA; and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point (Triad).  The Triangle got busted up back in 2000, if I recall correctly.
The Triangle and the Triad are still two real things, but there are cities growing between them (Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, etc.) that are likely to make the whole thing one huge conurbation in the next 20-30 years, same as between Austin and San Antonio.

Rothman

Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 28, 2022, 09:13:44 PM
Quote from: DTComposer on September 28, 2022, 08:23:10 PM
For what it's worth, the next two entries on the tourism list (and the last two provided in the source list) are:
Monterey - #26 tourism, #124 metro population, 98 difference
Naples - #27 tourism, #141 metro population, 114 difference

Those could be considered outliers like Flagstaff, right?
Heh.  When your dataset is mostly outliers, your assertion about causation is weakened.
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

Dirt Roads

Quote from: SkyPesos on September 27, 2022, 10:19:23 PMNC have two of these "separated MSAs that should really be one" examples: Greensboro-Winston Salem and Raleigh-Durham

Quote from: formulanone on September 28, 2022, 09:40:03 AM
If the former is The Triad, and the latter is The Triangle...Welcome to the Tridangle / Hex Cities / Sexboros!

Maybe it's best they stay apart; it's a roughly 75/90-minute drive between them.

Quote from: Dirt Roads on September 28, 2022, 08:57:54 PM
Your information is way out-of-date.  We have three MSAs in Central Carolina:  Raleigh/Cary MSA; Durham/Chapel Hill MSA; and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point (Triad).  The Triangle got busted up back in 2000, if I recall correctly.

Quote from: Road Hog on September 28, 2022, 10:13:29 PM
The Triangle and the Triad are still two real things, but there are cities growing between them (Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, etc.) that are likely to make the whole thing one huge conurbation in the next 20-30 years, same as between Austin and San Antonio.

Agreed.  I now live in part of the overlap.  For those not seeing my previous posts on this subject, folks working in Greensboro have been jumping over Alamance County and moving to Orange County for access to our well-respected public schools.  Folks that work in the Triangle have been jumping over Durham and Orange and moving into Alamance for cheap land and low taxes for at the last three decades.  On the border between Orange and Alamance, the town of Mebane is growing like crazy (much of it in the extra-territorial jurisdiction).  https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=16931.msg2773239#msg2773239

interstatefan990

Quote from: Rothman on September 29, 2022, 06:58:30 AM
Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 28, 2022, 09:13:44 PM
Quote from: DTComposer on September 28, 2022, 08:23:10 PM
For what it's worth, the next two entries on the tourism list (and the last two provided in the source list) are:
Monterey - #26 tourism, #124 metro population, 98 difference
Naples - #27 tourism, #141 metro population, 114 difference

Those could be considered outliers like Flagstaff, right?
Heh.  When your dataset is mostly outliers, your assertion about causation is weakened.

Mostly outliers? I see the vast majority of the numbers in the Difference column are single digit or low double digit numbers.
Multi-lane roundabouts are an abomination to mankind.

DTComposer

Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 28, 2022, 09:13:44 PM
Quote from: DTComposer on September 28, 2022, 08:23:10 PM
For what it's worth, the next two entries on the tourism list (and the last two provided in the source list) are:
Monterey - #26 tourism, #124 metro population, 98 difference
Naples - #27 tourism, #141 metro population, 114 difference

Those could be considered outliers like Flagstaff, right?

Perhaps, but unfortunately we don't have a complete set of data to work with, since the source list did not go any further down. Certainly some of the larger metros I mentioned (San Antonio, Portland) would show up somewhere nearby, but there are also a number of "outliers" that would likely show up soon as well (Atlantic City, Santa Barbara, Hilton Head, Santa Fe, Napa, etc.).

kalvado

Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 29, 2022, 12:20:24 PM
Quote from: Rothman on September 29, 2022, 06:58:30 AM
Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 28, 2022, 09:13:44 PM
Quote from: DTComposer on September 28, 2022, 08:23:10 PM
For what it's worth, the next two entries on the tourism list (and the last two provided in the source list) are:
Monterey - #26 tourism, #124 metro population, 98 difference
Naples - #27 tourism, #141 metro population, 114 difference

Those could be considered outliers like Flagstaff, right?
Heh.  When your dataset is mostly outliers, your assertion about causation is weakened.

Mostly outliers? I see the vast majority of the numbers in the Difference column are single digit or low double digit numbers.

There are some datapoints that fit your assumption, at most.  And the only one where population is correlating with position, IMHO, is the third capital of the world - NYC. It is super-hyped, and is a big enough destination, sure. #6 worldwide destination ( 5 or 7 by different metrics - and I thought it would be higher).   
DC is as capital, it is also home of Smithsonian, regardless of population. Those two factors are enough to attract many visitors, business and tourists.
Miami, Honolulu and Vegas are high in the list as gateways and strip, not because of population.

Chicago, Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta all punch well below their rank. I wonder how many of those tourists are actually visiting families or friends to begin with.

So there is some correlation, but looks like that is fairly weak.

skluth

Quote from: kirbykart on September 27, 2022, 09:27:41 AM
Quote from: Dirt Roads on September 26, 2022, 09:26:57 PM
Quote from: skluth on September 26, 2022, 06:28:09 PM
Los Angeles County has more people (10,014,009) than all but ten states. It's barely smaller than #10 Michigan (10,050,811) and will probably pass Michigan in population soon if it hasn't already.

Quote from: kirbykart on September 26, 2022, 07:22:08 PM
Another (albeit slightly less) surprising fact from this post is that Michigan is in the top 10 population-wise. I would imagine it in top 20 but not top 10.

Not sure why that is surprising, as Michigan has been in the Top Ten since the 1880 U.S. Census.  The population loss of Detroit was significant, but overall population declines in two other traditional Top Ten states (Massachusetts and New Jersey) dropped them out completely.  Michigan is still hanging around.
It's surprising because very few people would have ever figured Michigan in the  top 10. At any point. I would have figured Michigan to be like #18.

I was honestly surprised it wasn't higher so it balances out. I had not expected both Georgia and North Carolina to be higher.

interstatefan990

Quote from: kalvado on September 29, 2022, 02:16:19 PM
There are some datapoints that fit your assumption, at most.  And the only one where population is correlating with position, IMHO, is the third capital of the world - NYC. It is super-hyped, and is a big enough destination, sure. #6 worldwide destination ( 5 or 7 by different metrics - and I thought it would be higher).   
DC is as capital, it is also home of Smithsonian, regardless of population. Those two factors are enough to attract many visitors, business and tourists.
Miami, Honolulu and Vegas are high in the list as gateways and strip, not because of population.

Chicago, Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta all punch well below their rank. I wonder how many of those tourists are actually visiting families or friends to begin with.

So there is some correlation, but looks like that is fairly weak.

So basically what you're saying is something like this:

Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 27, 2022, 09:25:36 PM
Maybe this rule just disintegrates the further down a population list you go?
Multi-lane roundabouts are an abomination to mankind.

kalvado

Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 29, 2022, 02:40:22 PM
Quote from: kalvado on September 29, 2022, 02:16:19 PM
There are some datapoints that fit your assumption, at most.  And the only one where population is correlating with position, IMHO, is the third capital of the world - NYC. It is super-hyped, and is a big enough destination, sure. #6 worldwide destination ( 5 or 7 by different metrics - and I thought it would be higher).   
DC is as capital, it is also home of Smithsonian, regardless of population. Those two factors are enough to attract many visitors, business and tourists.
Miami, Honolulu and Vegas are high in the list as gateways and strip, not because of population.

Chicago, Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta all punch well below their rank. I wonder how many of those tourists are actually visiting families or friends to begin with.

So there is some correlation, but looks like that is fairly weak.

So basically what you're saying is something like this:

Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 27, 2022, 09:25:36 PM
Maybe this rule just disintegrates the further down a population list you go?
No, I am saying that population is a contributing factor with some - but not much - weight in tourism numbers. I, for one, never thought about going to Cleveland, Buffalo or Phoenix  because of their population. Having friends in Cleveland and seeing Niagara Falls or heading over to Grand Canyon were certainly more important factors. And yes, I am more likely to have friends in larger cities - but that is not the most important statistical factor.

webny99

Quote from: kirbykart on September 27, 2022, 09:27:41 AM
Quote from: Dirt Roads on September 26, 2022, 09:26:57 PM
Quote from: kirbykart on September 26, 2022, 07:22:08 PM
Another (albeit slightly less) surprising fact from this post is that Michigan is in the top 10 population-wise. I would imagine it in top 20 but not top 10.

Not sure why that is surprising, as Michigan has been in the Top Ten since the 1880 U.S. Census.  The population loss of Detroit was significant, but overall population declines in two other traditional Top Ten states (Massachusetts and New Jersey) dropped them out completely.  Michigan is still hanging around.
It's surprising because very few people would have ever figured Michigan in the  top 10. At any point. I would have figured Michigan to be like #18.

I'm more surprised that Ohio has still not been passed by Georgia and North Carolina. I guess having three large metro areas really helps.

dvferyance

The thing that kind of gets me is the population of Missouri is only slightly more than Wisconsin even though they have 2 large metro areas that are both bigger than the largest in Wisconsin. Yes I know they both spill into neighboring states but still.

webny99

Quote from: dvferyance on September 29, 2022, 08:08:20 PM
The thing that kind of gets me is the population of Missouri is only slightly more than Wisconsin even though they have 2 large metro areas that are both bigger than the largest in Wisconsin. Yes I know they both spill into neighboring states but still.

Then again, there are two metros from other states (Twin Cities and Chicagoland) that spill into Wisconsin, too.

TheHighwayMan3561

#89
Quote from: webny99 on September 29, 2022, 09:18:51 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on September 29, 2022, 08:08:20 PM
The thing that kind of gets me is the population of Missouri is only slightly more than Wisconsin even though they have 2 large metro areas that are both bigger than the largest in Wisconsin. Yes I know they both spill into neighboring states but still.

Then again, there are two metros from other states (Twin Cities and Chicagoland) that spill into Wisconsin, too.

The parts of KC and STL in the other states is a lot more significant, though. The Twin Cities has two towns of importance in WI (Hudson/River Falls). Kenosha is much more significant for Chicago but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the main body.
self-certified as the dumbest person on this board for 5 years running

webny99

Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on September 29, 2022, 10:18:53 PM
Quote from: webny99 on September 29, 2022, 09:18:51 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on September 29, 2022, 08:08:20 PM
The thing that kind of gets me is the population of Missouri is only slightly more than Wisconsin even though they have 2 large metro areas that are both bigger than the largest in Wisconsin. Yes I know they both spill into neighboring states but still.

Then again, there are two metros from other states (Twin Cities and Chicagoland) that spill into Wisconsin, too.

The parts of KC and STL in the other states is a lot more significant, though. The Twin Cities has two towns of importance in WI (Hudson/River Falls). Kenosha is much more significant for Chicago but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the main body.

That's fair. The parts of KC and STL in other states wouldn't directly factor in to the WI-MO comparison, but they do have a deflating effect on MO's population relative to if the entire metro was in-state.

Missouri also has fewer small/mid-sized cities and is more sparsely populated in general, especially compared to southern WI.

thspfc

Quote from: webny99 on September 29, 2022, 11:24:18 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on September 29, 2022, 10:18:53 PM
Quote from: webny99 on September 29, 2022, 09:18:51 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on September 29, 2022, 08:08:20 PM
The thing that kind of gets me is the population of Missouri is only slightly more than Wisconsin even though they have 2 large metro areas that are both bigger than the largest in Wisconsin. Yes I know they both spill into neighboring states but still.

Then again, there are two metros from other states (Twin Cities and Chicagoland) that spill into Wisconsin, too.

The parts of KC and STL in the other states is a lot more significant, though. The Twin Cities has two towns of importance in WI (Hudson/River Falls). Kenosha is much more significant for Chicago but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the main body.

That's fair. The parts of KC and STL in other states wouldn't directly factor in to the WI-MO comparison, but they do have a deflating effect on MO's population relative to if the entire metro was in-state.

Missouri also has fewer small/mid-sized cities and is more sparsely populated in general, especially compared to southern WI.
Yep. The southeastern quarter of WI is quite densely populated compared to most areas in the Midwest.

GaryV

Quote from: thspfc on September 30, 2022, 10:34:33 AM
Quote from: webny99 on September 29, 2022, 11:24:18 PM
Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on September 29, 2022, 10:18:53 PM
Quote from: webny99 on September 29, 2022, 09:18:51 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on September 29, 2022, 08:08:20 PM
The thing that kind of gets me is the population of Missouri is only slightly more than Wisconsin even though they have 2 large metro areas that are both bigger than the largest in Wisconsin. Yes I know they both spill into neighboring states but still.

Then again, there are two metros from other states (Twin Cities and Chicagoland) that spill into Wisconsin, too.

The parts of KC and STL in the other states is a lot more significant, though. The Twin Cities has two towns of importance in WI (Hudson/River Falls). Kenosha is much more significant for Chicago but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the main body.

That's fair. The parts of KC and STL in other states wouldn't directly factor in to the WI-MO comparison, but they do have a deflating effect on MO's population relative to if the entire metro was in-state.

Missouri also has fewer small/mid-sized cities and is more sparsely populated in general, especially compared to southern WI.
Yep. The southeastern quarter of WI is quite densely populated compared to most areas in the Midwest.

Also, Missouri doesn't have anything comparable to Madison and the Fox Valley communities.

dvferyance

Quote from: SkyPesos on September 27, 2022, 08:44:00 AM
Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 26, 2022, 11:25:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on September 25, 2022, 11:04:00 PM
I agree with your sentiment but I think what you're saying is that NY needs another large city. Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany are all pretty clearly mid-sized cities/metro areas IMO.

Depends on what you consider a "medium sized" city. For me, any city below 350-400K is midsized, but interpretations vary.
St Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are "mid-sized" while El Paso, Mesa AZ and Aurora CO are "large" then?
I know this is kind of off topic I know St Louis is completely surrounded by cities but why doesn't Cincinnati simply annex all the unincorporated areas of Hamilton County? That could boost their population by another 150,000-200,000.

Scott5114

Quote from: dvferyance on October 06, 2022, 08:49:38 PM
Quote from: SkyPesos on September 27, 2022, 08:44:00 AM
Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 26, 2022, 11:25:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on September 25, 2022, 11:04:00 PM
I agree with your sentiment but I think what you're saying is that NY needs another large city. Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany are all pretty clearly mid-sized cities/metro areas IMO.

Depends on what you consider a "medium sized" city. For me, any city below 350-400K is midsized, but interpretations vary.
St Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are "mid-sized" while El Paso, Mesa AZ and Aurora CO are "large" then?
I know this is kind of off topic I know St Louis is completely surrounded by cities but why doesn't Cincinnati simply annex all the unincorporated areas of Hamilton County? That could boost their population by another 150,000-200,000.

Would the added tax base offset the need to provide services to all of that area? If the population density is low enough, you spend more money running water and sewer lines out to the new places than you can recover in taxes (this is a problem Oklahoma City has had in annexing vast swaths of rural Oklahoma County).
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

Road Hog

When the Triangle and the Triad do eventually merge, I propose they call it what rural Tar Heels will love and more liberal ones will hate.

______?

Road Hog

This is my last post for a while on the population topic, I promise:

I am struck by how similar Arkansas and Iowa are demographically and geographically. Both states have a capital city that's the largest city in the state and geographically centered, a large adjacent suburb to the capital city (WDM, NLR), border the Mississippi River to the west, are of similar land area and population (Iowa is a tick larger in both), have agriculture as a huge industry, and are built mostly of small towns outside the top 15 or so cities.

I do expect that Arkansas' Delta population drain will reach an equilibrium (how low can you go?) and when that happens, the state's population growth will begin to match the rest of the nation.

Dirt Roads

Quote from: Road Hog on October 07, 2022, 12:03:37 AM
When the Triangle and the Triad do eventually merge, I propose they call it what rural Tar Heels will love and more liberal ones will hate.

______?

Tobacco Road?

ran4sh

Quote from: Scott5114 on October 06, 2022, 09:02:15 PM
Quote from: dvferyance on October 06, 2022, 08:49:38 PM
Quote from: SkyPesos on September 27, 2022, 08:44:00 AM
Quote from: interstatefan990 on September 26, 2022, 11:25:07 PM
Quote from: webny99 on September 25, 2022, 11:04:00 PM
I agree with your sentiment but I think what you're saying is that NY needs another large city. Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany are all pretty clearly mid-sized cities/metro areas IMO.

Depends on what you consider a "medium sized" city. For me, any city below 350-400K is midsized, but interpretations vary.
St Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are "mid-sized" while El Paso, Mesa AZ and Aurora CO are "large" then?
I know this is kind of off topic I know St Louis is completely surrounded by cities but why doesn't Cincinnati simply annex all the unincorporated areas of Hamilton County? That could boost their population by another 150,000-200,000.

Would the added tax base offset the need to provide services to all of that area? If the population density is low enough, you spend more money running water and sewer lines out to the new places than you can recover in taxes (this is a problem Oklahoma City has had in annexing vast swaths of rural Oklahoma County).

That's why cities usually prefer to annex regions that include commercial and industrial properties, as those normally contribute more in taxes than they receive in services. Residential properties do the opposite, they use more in services than they contribute in taxes.
Control cities CAN be off the route! Control cities make NO sense if signs end before the city is reached!

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ran4sh

Quote from: Dirt Roads on October 07, 2022, 10:30:56 AM
Quote from: Road Hog on October 07, 2022, 12:03:37 AM
When the Triangle and the Triad do eventually merge, I propose they call it what rural Tar Heels will love and more liberal ones will hate.

______?

Tobacco Road?

Piedmont Crescent, and keep the name once that area merges with the Charlotte area
Control cities CAN be off the route! Control cities make NO sense if signs end before the city is reached!

Travel Mapping - Most Traveled: I-40, 20, 10, 5, 95 - Longest Clinched: I-20, 85, 24, 16, NJ Tpk mainline
Champions - UGA FB '21 '22 - Atlanta Braves '95 '21 - Atlanta MLS '18



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