2021 Supply Disruptions

[Pink Jazz]

As COVID restrictions ease and more individuals and families go for summer vacations, could we possibly see a spring/summer clothing shortage in July or August?  Usually July/August is when the fashion companies start putting out fall/winter items, with some having put out a few items already.  The staffing at the clothing factories were reduced, and since more people are now buying spring/summer clothes as things get better, we could potentially see items go out of stock before summer is over.

[webny99]

As COVID restrictions ease and more individuals and families go for summer vacations, could we possibly see a spring/summer clothing shortage in July or August?  Usually July/August is when the fashion companies start putting out fall/winter items, with some having put out a few items already.  The staffing at the clothing factories were reduced, and since more people are now buying spring/summer clothes as things get better, we could potentially see items go out of stock before summer is over.

I think clothing is essential enough that there's probably not a backlog large enough to cause major shortages... similar to many grocery items. People never fully stopped buying them, so companies never fully stopped producing them.

[Scott5114]

Well, you usually don't actually need clothing. Most people's clothing holds up well enough that, if there's a price spike or shortage, they can muddle through without buying anything (I usually buy new articles of clothing only once or twice a year, and there are some articles of clothing I've worn since high school).

Really, the only times that clothing is a non-negotiable expense is if 1) a critical wardrobe component fails (like, you only have one bra of the appropriate style and the underwire goes out on it, or you spill something on your best dress shirt and can't get the stain out, or your shoes fall apart) 2) your size changes drastically (I went up a T-shirt size during the pandemic for obvious reasons) 3) you are suddenly thrust into a position that you have no appropriate clothing for (e.g., accepting a job with a stricter dress code than your old one, or agreeing to attend an event like a wedding) 4) you're traveling and unexpectedly need a particular type of garment you didn't bring with you.

[webny99]

Well, you usually don't actually need clothing. Most people's clothing holds up well enough that, if there's a price spike or shortage, they can muddle through without buying anything (I usually buy new articles of clothing only once or twice a year, and there are some articles of clothing I've worn since high school).

Right, but precisely because of that, the pandemic probably didn't cause much change in demand, especially with the shift towards buying things online.

[Scott5114]

Well, you usually don't actually need clothing. Most people's clothing holds up well enough that, if there's a price spike or shortage, they can muddle through without buying anything (I usually buy new articles of clothing only once or twice a year, and there are some articles of clothing I've worn since high school).

Right, but precisely because of that, the pandemic probably didn't cause much change in demand, especially with the shift towards buying things online.

True, but clothing is one of the things that a lot of people understandably refuse to buy online, even if they're comfortable doing everything else that way.

If anything, I'd imagine the pandemic caused a trough in clothing sales, because everyone was just wearing what was comfy while stuck at home.

[Pink Jazz]

Well, you usually don't actually need clothing. Most people's clothing holds up well enough that, if there's a price spike or shortage, they can muddle through without buying anything (I usually buy new articles of clothing only once or twice a year, and there are some articles of clothing I've worn since high school).

Right, but precisely because of that, the pandemic probably didn't cause much change in demand, especially with the shift towards buying things online.

True, but clothing is one of the things that a lot of people understandably refuse to buy online, even if they're comfortable doing everything else that way.

If anything, I'd imagine the pandemic caused a trough in clothing sales, because everyone was just wearing what was comfy while stuck at home.

One thing though is that at the factories there was probably less staffing, so that probably means less of the Spring/Summer 2021 product was produced in the factories.  As things start to improve, that will likely increase demand for clothes this summer, and since there was less spring/summer clothing produced than a typical fashion season, I just wonder if there will be shortages of the Spring/Summer 2021 product before summer is over.

[MikeTheActuary]

If anything, I'd imagine the pandemic caused a trough in clothing sales, because everyone was just wearing what was comfy while stuck at home.

There's been at least one media report on how sales of pants nose-dived during the pandemic.

[kphoger]

If anything, I'd imagine the pandemic caused a trough in clothing sales, because everyone was just wearing what was comfy while stuck at home.

There's been at least one media report on how sales of pants nose-dived during the pandemic.

I mean, why buy new pants, if you're working from home in your boxer shorts?

[SSOWorld]

If anything, I'd imagine the pandemic caused a trough in clothing sales, because everyone was just wearing what was comfy while stuck at home.

There's been at least one media report on how sales of pants nose-dived during the pandemic.

I mean, why buy new pants, if you're working from home in your boxer shorts?

yeah just ask Stephen Colbert.  He had to put his pants back on yesterday.

[Pink Jazz]

If anything, I'd imagine the pandemic caused a trough in clothing sales, because everyone was just wearing what was comfy while stuck at home.

There's been at least one media report on how sales of pants nose-dived during the pandemic.

But that was last year.  As things improve, sales are rebounding this year, and since factories were short-staffed, there may be less of the Spring/Summer 2021 product to go around before summer is over.

Now, what will likely change is what type of clothing customers will buy.  Formal and tailored clothing took the hardest hit, with customers now buying more casual clothing. That maybe means less Van Heusen (a more formal, professional brand) and more IZOD (a more casual, preppier brand).

[Scott5114]

Who needs the Spring/Summer 2021 product line when the Summer 2007 line hasn't worn out yet?

[hotdogPi]

Who needs the Spring/Summer 2021 product line when the Summer 2007 line hasn't worn out yet?

Is 2022 clothing out yet?

[Pink Jazz]

Who needs the Spring/Summer 2021 product line when the Summer 2007 line hasn't worn out yet?

Is 2022 clothing out yet?

Some brands have put out have either put out their first product batches of Fall/Winter 2021, or put out a separate standalone collection known as Pre-Fall 2021 (the latter more common with higher-end brands)

[hbelkins]

Well, you usually don't actually need clothing. Most people's clothing holds up well enough that, if there's a price spike or shortage, they can muddle through without buying anything (I usually buy new articles of clothing only once or twice a year, and there are some articles of clothing I've worn since high school).

Right, but precisely because of that, the pandemic probably didn't cause much change in demand, especially with the shift towards buying things online.

I lost 60 pounds in 2019. Got down to within 20 pounds of what I weighed when I graduated from high school in 1979. All of my work pants were way to big and were being held up by a cinched-up belt into which I'd found it necessary to punch new holes.

I had every intention of going out and buying several new pairs of pants to wear to the office, when our governor forced a shutdown of just about every business other than department stores that sell groceries (Walmart, Meijer, Target, Dollar General, Family Dollar, etc.).

During the 2020 shutdowns and work-from-home period, my thyroid decided to go wonky, resulting in gaining all that weight back plus a little extra. Suddenly, what new pants I had gotten were too small and my old pants fit again.

My thyroid issues have been resolved, and my dose of Ozempic has been increased, so I'm hopefully on the road back to losing the weight again and will at some point need to plan that pants-shopping trip again.

I'm not a fashionable person by any means, nor am I rich, so I don't run out and buy what's hot every season of every year.

[OCGuy81]

Well, add another to the list.

Listening to OPB this morning, and hear there's a chlorine shortage due to a plant issue in Longview, WA that supplies a lot of chlorine to the state. 

Certain cities in Oregon are urging people to conserve water as a preventative measure.

[hbelkins]

Well, add another to the list.

Listening to OPB this morning, and hear there's a chlorine shortage due to a plant issue in Longview, WA that supplies a lot of chlorine to the state. 

Certain cities in Oregon are urging people to conserve water as a preventative measure.

I've seen several stores limiting purchase quantities of pool chemicals because of this.

[Bruce]

Well, add another to the list.

Listening to OPB this morning, and hear there's a chlorine shortage due to a plant issue in Longview, WA that supplies a lot of chlorine to the state. 

Certain cities in Oregon are urging people to conserve water as a preventative measure.

It's a little crazy to have one point of failure like this.

Anacortes is starting to conserve water, while other utilities have a 2-week supply on hand.

[Bruce]

Another unusual shortage (in Washington): license plates.

Production at the Walla Walla State Penitentiary slowed during the pandemic to comply with social distancing. Only two counties are reporting low inventories, and everything should be back to normal by September.

[kphoger]

Another unusual shortage (in Washington): license plates.

Production at the Walla Walla State Penitentiary slowed during the pandemic to comply with social distancing. Only two counties are reporting low inventories, and everything should be back to normal by September.

Should be easy to come by one, after dark, if you own a good socket set or screwdriver.

[dlsterner]

Another unusual shortage (in Washington): license plates.

Production at the Walla Walla State Penitentiary slowed during the pandemic to comply with social distancing. Only two counties are reporting low inventories, and everything should be back to normal by September.

Should be easy to come by one, after dark, if you own a good socket set or screwdriver.

And a side effect would be an increase in the number of inmates available to craft the license plates, ramping up production.  Everybody wins!

[vdeane]

Looks like supply chains aren't going to resolve themselves as quickly as people hoped:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-25/the-world-economy-s-supply-chain-problem-keeps-getting-worse

[LM117]

Looks like supply chains aren't going to resolve themselves as quickly as people hoped:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-25/the-world-economy-s-supply-chain-problem-keeps-getting-worse

I believe it. A cashier at Food Lion in my area said that there was a shortage of plastic grocery bags and that they were having to reuse the bags that people bring back when they return items.

[Rothman]

Looks like supply chains aren't going to resolve themselves as quickly as people hoped:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-25/the-world-economy-s-supply-chain-problem-keeps-getting-worse

I believe it. A cashier at Food Lion in my area said that there was a shortage of plastic grocery bags and that they were having to reuse the bags that people bring back when they return items.

I wonder how much of an issue this has been in NY due to the ban on the grocery plastic bags.

[kphoger]

Doesn't seem particularly sanitary, either.

Reuse my own bag?  Sure.  Reuse someone else's bag?  No, thanks.

[US71]

Because of Covid, may comvenience stores are refusing refillable cups, which means more disposable cups which are in short supply.  My local Casey's General Store has "substitute" drink cups from Sam's Club, but only in the medium size.