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How rare are September, October, and November snowstorms?

Started by thspfc, September 27, 2019, 07:43:43 PM

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thspfc

In Wisconsin, we might get a dusting of snow in late October, but we don't get big storms until around Thanksgiving, if even then. But southern Alberta is going to get over a foot of snow this weekend, and it has gotten me wondering just how rare those types of things are. If you live in a cold climate, tell about your September/October snowstorm experiences.


Alps

There was one year recently where we in NJ had a giant snowstorm that cancelled Halloween, and an otherwise quiet winter.

Kniwt

Up to 3 feet of snow across parts of Montana this weekend. It's a "significant and rare" event.
https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2019/09/25/rare-early-season-winter-weather-event-heading-great-falls-weekend/2442916001/

QuoteThe Front could potentially see in the ballpark of 1-3 feet of snow through the weekend.

"We're expecting severe to extreme winter weather impacts along the Front,"  said Paul Nutter, a meteorologist with NWS Great Falls.

Great Falls has a forecasted high of 37 degrees on Saturday, with the potential for falling temperatures during the day as the rain looks to turn to snow.

Such an event this early in the year is not unprecedented, Nutter said, but is few and far between. NWS records indicate a similar winter-weather occurrence over a three-day period in 1934.

"This type of event has happened in the historical record, but it is rather rare,"  Nutter said. "Some potentially similar matches, maybe one in the '50s, one in the '80s. We're talking about the type of event that we don't really see but maybe once every 10 or 20 years in the historical record that we have."

SectorZ

In Massachusetts, any snow before about Veteran's Day is very rare, but can be quite strong when it does happen.

Just before Halloween 2011, my current home of Tewksbury got about 5 inches of snow. Former home in Fitchburg got 17, and Ashburnham to the northwest got over 25. It was also 60+ degrees for about 10 straight days after and in Fitchburg I got a mere 20 inches of snow the rest of the year after.

Famously, a Baltimore Orioles World Series game in 1979 got snowed out on Columbus Day. Given how far south and how early that was, that one always fascinated me.

The Patriots also played a mid-October game in 2009 that had snow throughout. The Tennessee Titans were a complete mess dealing with it, and the Pats won 59-0.

The earliest I've seen snow in Massachusetts is October 10th (in 2000).

kalvado

I was in Banff pretty much a year ago sharp. It was october 1st I believe.  Banff got some snow, Calgary got a lot...

Max Rockatansky

Not that rare in California.  We are having them above 6,000 feet in much of the State this weekend.

US 89

In Salt Lake City, typically you'll see the first flakes of the year fall in mid to late October, but major accumulations don't really happen until the last week of November. The mountains on the other hand might start seeing flakes in late September and major accumulations usually begin around the middle of October.

Of course, rules like this are made to be broken. In fact, the biggest storm total accumulation I remember happened on November 9-11, 2012, when over two feet of snow fell. The main cold front passed through on Friday the 9th and didn't amount to much, but a persistent lake-effect snow band developed and persisted through Sunday afternoon.

MNHighwayMan

Quote from: US 89 on September 27, 2019, 09:35:09 PM
Of course, rules like this are made to be broken. In fact, the biggest storm total accumulation I remember happened on November 9-11, 2012, when over two feet of snow fell. The main cold front passed through on Friday the 9th and didn't amount to much, but a persistent lake-effect snow band developed and persisted through Sunday afternoon.

The Great Salt Lake is big enough to produce lake-effect snow? Neat.

Hot Rod Hootenanny

Quote from: thspfc on September 27, 2019, 07:43:43 PM
In Wisconsin, we might get a dusting of snow in late October, but we don't get big storms until around Thanksgiving, if even then. But southern Alberta is going to get over a foot of snow this weekend, and it has gotten me wondering just how rare those types of things are. If you live in a cold climate, tell about your September/October snowstorm experiences.

About as rare as Central Ohio reaching 90 degrees in October
(That is what is forecasted for October 1)
Please, don't sue Alex & Andy over what I wrote above

Brandon

Quote from: thspfc on September 27, 2019, 07:43:43 PM
In Wisconsin, we might get a dusting of snow in late October, but we don't get big storms until around Thanksgiving, if even then. But southern Alberta is going to get over a foot of snow this weekend, and it has gotten me wondering just how rare those types of things are. If you live in a cold climate, tell about your September/October snowstorm experiences.

Depends.  In Houghton, north of you, expect snow September through May, inclusive.
"If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention." - Ramsay Bolton

"Symbolic of his struggle against reality." - Reg

nexus73

One year the first Monday Night Football game for the season was played in Denver.  It turned out to be a Snow Bowl. 

Glad I am not venturing into the continental interior right now!

Rick
US 101 is THE backbone of the Pacific coast from Bandon OR to Willits CA.  Industry, tourism and local traffic would be gone or severely crippled without it being in functioning condition in BOTH states.

ce929wax

I've seen it snow here in Michigan on my birthday (October 30th).  It only happened once that I can remember.  I think it was 1993.

MNHighwayMan

#12
Most Minnesotans who were alive then will remember the Halloween blizzard of 1991. I was only in the womb at the time, but I'm sure my parents remember it well.

D-Dey65

Quote from: Alps on September 27, 2019, 07:49:23 PM
There was one year recently where we in NJ had a giant snowstorm that cancelled Halloween, and an otherwise quiet winter.
I remember reading about that, but I didn't live it. However, I do remember more than a few November snowfalls from my childhood, which at the time I found disturbing because I was taught that snow didn't fall until December.

Having said that, the second line of the song "To Grandmother's House We Go" gradually introduced me to the idea of snow falling before then,  especially when redone by the Peanuts gang in "A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving."


US 89

#14
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on September 27, 2019, 09:52:08 PM
Quote from: US 89 on September 27, 2019, 09:35:09 PM
Of course, rules like this are made to be broken. In fact, the biggest storm total accumulation I remember happened on November 9-11, 2012, when over two feet of snow fell. The main cold front passed through on Friday the 9th and didn't amount to much, but a persistent lake-effect snow band developed and persisted through Sunday afternoon.

The Great Salt Lake is big enough to produce lake-effect snow? Neat.

Yep. It's also notoriously difficult to forecast, and a significant amount of research has gone into the Great Salt Lake effect, determining the parameters that are likely to produce lake-effect snow based on past events. In addition, every lake-effect event has slightly different characteristics (will it be scattered showers? one intense band? exactly where will these set up?) Even the high-resolution models don't resolve the lake very well, so there's a significant amount of local expertise that goes into forecasting it.

Doesn't have to be snow, either. Lake-effect rain can occur in early fall or late spring when Pacific storm systems bring in upper-level cold air, but temperatures at the surface are too warm for snow. And somtimes, lake-effect showers are strong enough to produce some lightning -- yes, this means thundersnow can happen on occasion.

Duke87

Quote from: Alps on September 27, 2019, 07:49:23 PM
There was one year recently where we in NJ had a giant snowstorm that cancelled Halloween, and an otherwise quiet winter.

That was 2011.

Wasn't all that big of a snowstorm in terms of the amount that fell, but the problem was that it was a wet clumpy snow and the trees mostly still had leaves on them. Resultingly a lot of trees and pieces of trees collapsed under the weight, which meant a lot of blocked roads, downed power lines, and general damage that made it undesireable to have kids walking around outside. My parents (in CT) had no power for several days after that one.


Then the very next year Halloween was cancelled again due to Sandy. Would have been a sucky time to be a kid around here.
If you always take the same road, you will never see anything new.

GaryV

Quote from: D-Dey65 on September 28, 2019, 01:07:04 AM
"To Grandmother's House We Go"
Jingle Bells was also originally a Thanksgiving song.

I heard that Mackinac Island has had snow recorded in every month of the year.

Jim

The earliest major snow in eastern New York during my time was October 4, 1987.  We had about 6 inches up on the hill where I lived in Amsterdam, with much more in higher elevations.  With all the trees still filled with leaves, there was significant tree damage.

A Google search of "october 4 1987 snowstorm" gives several articles and videos.

A more typical timing of our first significant snow would be late November or early December.
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Rothman

Had flurries in late September in western MA when I was a kid.
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

froggie

Quote from: MNHighwayMan on September 28, 2019, 01:01:32 AM
Most Minnesotans who were alive then will remember the Halloween blizzard of 1991. I was only in the womb at the time, but I'm sure my parents remember it well.

Coincidentally, the next storm system behind the one that caused the Perfect Storm off the New England coast.  I remember it well, not only from being caught in snow trying to get home but also the temperature going from the 50s early on Halloween to below zero less than 48 hours later.  Still the earliest recorded below zero temperature at MSP.

Back to the OP, up here September snow is rare, but not unheard of.  At my house, we typically get our first inch of snow before Halloween, though a few years ago we had received a foot of snow (not all at once, thankfully) by Halloween.

ozarkman417

Since 2016 there hasen't been much snow at all here, only getting about 3-4 inches a year. That amount fell in the first days of May of 2013. As far as fall goes, as long as I have been alive getting more than an inch of snow before December is very rare, and the first snow usually occurs around mid November. Instead, I get a fair deal of ice.

Rothman

Heh.  Regarding the Halloween Blizzard in 1991, kids in Superior, WI still went trick-or-treating.  My sister-in-law knocked on a door and was asked what she was.  Kind of hard to be a princess when you're wearing all that snow gear.
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

MNHighwayMan

Quote from: Rothman on September 28, 2019, 11:44:42 AM
Heh.  Regarding the Halloween Blizzard in 1991, kids in Superior, WI still went trick-or-treating.  My sister-in-law knocked on a door and was asked what she was.  Kind of hard to be a princess when you're wearing all that snow gear.

Too bad that was well before anything Frozen existed. :)

NJRoadfan

NJ has had a string the past decade.

-The infamous 2011 October snowstorm that resulted in power outages and downed trees everywhere.
http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2012/29-Oct-11.html
-A week after Sandy hit, we had a Nor'easter dump snow on the affected areas as a final insult. The only bonus was that we were able to use the snow on the deck as a refrigerator since we STILL didn't have electric. Refueling a generator in driving wind and snow was NOT fun.
http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2013/07-Nov-12.html
-Last year's November 15-16 snowstorm disaster. It was only supposed to be "a few inches and done by the evening". Yeah right. It stuck around and landed up dumping over 6 inches on day one and areas got a 2nd round on the morning of day two.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/weather/2018/11/16/nj-snowstorm-2018-why-did-hit-so-hard/2023921002/

thspfc

Quote from: GaryV on September 28, 2019, 07:43:40 AM
I heard that Mackinac Island has had snow recorded in every month of the year.
I'm not calling you out, but that sounds fake. Snow in July just seems impossible at 45 degrees north and no altitude to speak of.



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