With all due respect to Bing Crosby, some cities may not get a White Christmas after all. The slideshow is accessed here (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weather/how-likely-is-a-white-christmas-in-your-city/ss-BBEVOvs?ocid=spartanntp), but thanks to the deslide app (http://deslide.clusterfake.net/), this is the complete list and their chances of it, from highest to lowest:
- Duluth, MN: 92
- Bozeman, MT: 76
- Minneapolis, MN: 74
- Madison, WI: 66
- Burlington, VT: 65
- Grand Rapids, MI: 59
- Buffalo, NY: 56
- Salt Lake City, UT: 53
- Milwaukee, WI: 48
- Albany, NY: 46
- Cleveland, OH: 44
- Denver, CO: 40
- Chicago, IL: 38
- Detroit, MI: 38 (tie)
- Cheyenne, WY: 37
- Pittsburgh, PA: 32
- Altoona, PA: 31
- Hartford, CT: 29
- Grand Junction, CO: 27
- Kansas City, MO: 23
- St. Louis, MO: 21
- Boston, MA: 19
- Cincinnati, OH: 19 (tie)
- New York, NY: 12
- Baltimore, MD: 10
- Philadelphia, PA: 7.9
- Washington, DC: 7.6
- Richmond, VA: 6.3
- Seattle, WA: 4.5
- Albuquerque, NM: 3.9
- Abilene, TX: 2.4
- Nashville, TN: 2.2
- Portland, OR: 1.7
- Charlotte, NC: 1.6
- Atlanta, GA: 1.3
- Columbia, SC: 0.8
- Dallas, TX: 0.6
- Charleston, SC: 0.5
- Hattiesburg, MS: 0.1
- Las Vegas, NV: 0.1 (tie)
- Tucson, AZ: 0.1 (tie)
- Albany, GA: 0
- Austin, TX: 0 (tie)
- Birmingham, AL: 0 (tie)
- Fresno, CA: 0 (tie)
- Fort Myers, FL: 0 (tie)
- Houston, TX: 0 (tie)
- Los Angeles, CA: 0 (tie)
- New Orleans, LA: 0 (tie)
- Phoenix, AZ: 0 (tie)
- San Antonio, TX: 0 (tie)
- San Diego, CA: 0 (tie)
- San Francisco, CA: 0 (tie)
I'm interested in the number for Flagstaff, AZ.
Quote from: 1 on November 14, 2017, 11:41:06 AM
I'm interested in the number for Flagstaff, AZ.
You'll get something with the 100 inches of snow the city averages a year. How much really depends on how much the temperature swings during the daylight hours. I want to say the average December high is 43F.
Palm Springs area - zero. We had like 5 white New Years' days (Dec 30-Jan 2) in our 150 years of weather record history. The most recent were 1978-79 and 1984-85 (the coming ice age later became global warning). If we're having global climate change - it means we get hotter (and more humid) summers and who knows, higher risk of winter storms in the desert, which can get colder (esp over 2000 feet) than the relatively mild LA Basin and the So CA coast. It would be cool if we had a white Christmas at all, but drive to the San Jacinto and San Bernardino Mountains (Idyllwild or Anza, and Lake Arrowhead or Big Bear Lake) if you want to ever experience a white Christmas within So Cal in your life time.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on November 14, 2017, 11:45:43 AM
Quote from: 1 on November 14, 2017, 11:41:06 AM
I'm interested in the number for Flagstaff, AZ.
You'll get something with the 100 inches of snow the city averages a year. How much really depends on how much the temperature swings during the daylight hours. I want to say the average December high is 43F.
Snow in the winter is common, but the snowstorms are spaced widely enough for it to melt in between.
Quote from: Henry on November 14, 2017, 11:38:50 AM
With all due respect to Bing Crosby...
Maybe the song "White Christmas" isn't any less apropos, though. It's not a song about enjoying a white Christmas but rather a lament about being somewhere sunny and warm and wishing you were somewhere snowy for the holiday. There's a stanza that's often omitted from the beginning of the song:
The sun is shining,
The grass is green,
The orange and palm trees sway.
There's never been such a day,
In Beverly Hills, L.A.
But it's December the 24th,
And I'm longing to be up North.Now as to the list, I'm not sure what criteria were used for inclusion. I wonder why Altoona made the list, but more populous and more notoriously snowy Erie did not. (Or for that matter, Scranton or Allentown–both of which surely would have ranked somewhere.
Why is Albany, Georgia on the list...to compare it with Albany, New York? There’s no reason to put Fort Meyers (or anything south of I-4) on there, although maybe they’ll get a micro-dusting about once every 30 years. They might as well have had a link to the fifty cities which are unlikely to get anything other than some morning frost.
Huntsville gets a few flurries around that week, but the last two Xmases have been warm.
71 of 131 years (54%) Christmas' measured snowfall per NWS Chicago. I'd agree with our rank, I've had a majority of White Christmas', but there was a decent block of years of bare ground.
I am very surprised that Birmingham never got at least a bit of snow.
Quote from: kkt on November 14, 2017, 01:04:46 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on November 14, 2017, 11:45:43 AM
Quote from: 1 on November 14, 2017, 11:41:06 AM
I'm interested in the number for Flagstaff, AZ.
You'll get something with the 100 inches of snow the city averages a year. How much really depends on how much the temperature swings during the daylight hours. I want to say the average December high is 43F.
Snow in the winter is common, but the snowstorms are spaced widely enough for it to melt in between.
Usually it was pretty easy to plan travel in Arizona to the Mogollon Rim. When I worked up there usually you had a solid weeks notice that a storm was coming. The big storms were 20 inches or more, I actually got snow bound in Show Low for a couple days. Out in California it's way less predictable with the Sierras spitting out storms at the Sierras and Coast Ranges. I'll probably be a solid 2 hours from 3-5 of snow at 6,000 feet from Fresno all winter.
Quote from: Roadgeekteen on November 14, 2017, 02:59:30 PM
I am very surprised that Birmingham never got at least a bit of snow.
I'm surprised that it's zero. I would have expected maybe 0.5. The city doesn't get much snow, but they at least get some snow on an average basis, unlike the rest of the zeros.
Doesn't matter where I am, the chance of a White Christmas is 100%.
My last name is White
Quote from: OracleUsr on November 14, 2017, 08:32:49 PM
Doesn't matter where I am, the chance of a White Christmas is 100%.
...
My last name is White
Before I read the second sentence, I thought you were making a dirty joke.
100%. Last year we got into the first few days of December without snow on the ground, a pretty rare occurrence. This year... there was snow on the ground not even a week after Halloween.
Quote from: jakeroot on November 14, 2017, 09:00:46 PM
Quote from: OracleUsr on November 14, 2017, 08:32:49 PM
Doesn't matter where I am, the chance of a White Christmas is 100%.
...
My last name is White
Before I read the second sentence, I thought you were making a dirty joke.
:-D
Quote from: Henry on November 14, 2017, 11:38:50 AM
With all due respect to Bing Crosby, some cities may not get a White Christmas after all. The slideshow is accessed here (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weather/how-likely-is-a-white-christmas-in-your-city/ss-BBEVOvs?ocid=spartanntp), but thanks to the deslide app (http://deslide.clusterfake.net/), this is the complete list and their chances of it, from highest to lowest:
Yeah baby. :cool:
In the increasingly rare event that it actually does snow in Atlanta proper (or at least anywhere south of GA 120), it's usually gonna be in the January-March timeframe. I think I've seen snow here in December once in 30 years.
I'm pretty sure Des Moines has only had one in the six years I've lived here, which, as a native Minnesotan, depresses me. :-(
Quote from: MNHighwayMan on November 15, 2017, 08:46:34 AM
I'm pretty sure Des Moines has only had one in the six years I've lived here, which, as a native Minnesotan, depresses me. :-(
From a layman's perspective, you'd think Des Moines would have more white Christmas'. I guess, being out in the plains, it's subject to massive temperature swings that make it difficult.
And if you want to look at the calendar, Christmas is only 4 days into winter. Since it's not really the coldest time of year, it stands to reason that it's quite possible for areas that do get snow won't have it on Christmas.
In my region (Philly), it's likely we'll see some snow in December and even November, but with average highs still in the 40's it usually won't stick around.
In recent memory, I remember only 2 significant December snowfalls in my area:
A surprise early December storm where an inch or so was expected, and we wound up with 8 inches. This was also the only Eagles game that I ate the tickets, as I was called out to DOT to work the snow trucks. The game on TV was awesome to watch, but conditions for the fans at the game were miserable. This snow easily melted prior to Christmas though.
A heavy snowfall the Saturday before Christmas many years ago (when not a lot of shopping was done via internet), which shut everything down on one of the busiest shopping days of the season. A very intense effort to clear the roads and parking lots went well, and by Sunday people could resume their normal shopping. That year was definitely a white Christmas with plenty of snow still on the ground.
I have personally experienced exactly one white Christmas in Western Washington. It was in 2008, and I was in seventh grade. We had over a foot of snow on the ground about a week leading up to Christmas. A foot of snow on the ground is unusual by itself. The fact that it was right before Christmas was pretty cool for someone my age, who was able to skip the last four days of school before our Christmas vacation (classes were cancelled) and I didn't have to worry about making it in to work (I was 13).
I had a cycling assignment for my gym class that I had to complete the day before the last day before winter vacation. I completed in the snow, which was a disaster. Didn't end up turning it in until after New Years.
Christmas will be celebrated in hell with feet of snow on the ground there before we ever get an inch of snow on the ground here on Christmas day. :evilgrin:
Quote from: cjk374 on November 16, 2017, 06:49:48 AM
Christmas will be celebrated in hell with feet of snow on the ground there before we ever get an inch of snow on the ground here on Christmas day. :evilgrin:
Didn't even Miami once get some snow in the first half the 20th century? I want to say the only place in the Lower 48 States that never has had recorded snow fall is the Florida Keys.
Boston is at 19%? Seems very low, especially since Albany is at 46%.
I live in the Charlotte, NC area, and I've technically had a White Christmas before, around 2010 or 2009. There wasn't snow on the ground in the morning, but by 8 PM, there was accumulating snow.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on November 16, 2017, 08:18:06 AM
Quote from: cjk374 on November 16, 2017, 06:49:48 AM
Christmas will be celebrated in hell with feet of snow on the ground there before we ever get an inch of snow on the ground here on Christmas day. :evilgrin:
Didn't even Miami once get some snow in the first half the 20th century? I want to say the only place in the Lower 48 States that never has had recorded snow fall is the Florida Keys.
Miami once received snowfall in January 1977, but it melted as soon as it hit the ground.
In Salt Lake City, we've had a white Christmas for 3 (or 4?) years in a row now. But each of those times it's been because a huge storm hit starting the night before Christmas. Last year it snowed almost a foot on Christmas Day itself, which is definitely rare.
The 6 last Christmas in my area
2011 No
2012 Yes but barely areas just to the south did not as we were on the southern fringe of a storm a few days before
2013 Yes
2014 No
2015 No
2016 Yes although much of it melted the next day
So really 50-50 which is about our ranking.
Christmas 1989 was the only Christmas where there was measurable snow on the ground here in New Bern during my lifetime. I was just visiting here then (didn't move here until 1991) and it was a lucky thing that my dad's last business trip before our vacation went long that year so the snow tires were still on his car when we drove down from Chicago.
Based on that, I would say the chances of having a white Christmas this year are slim to none.
During the four years I spent in Portland (OR), Christmas time was about the only time the city received even a dusting of snow (in two years out of the four) -- but it was invariably accompanied by most of the roads icing over, which particularly affected my commute home, since I lived near the top of the ridge between Portland and Tigard; a couple of evenings I ended up spending most of the night in a pizza parlor near my PSU T.A. office waiting for someone to clear either I-5 or the parallel Barbur Blvd. After spending the first 40+ years of my life in CA, having winter disrupt my local travel was a new one on me. Particularly "chilling" was the ice buildup on the Willamette River bridges -- especially those with steel grates as the driving surface!
Quote from: sparker on November 22, 2017, 06:08:40 AM
During the four years I spent in Portland (OR), Christmas time was about the only time the city received even a dusting of snow (in two years out of the four) -- but it was invariably accompanied by most of the roads icing over, which particularly affected my commute home, since I lived near the top of the ridge between Portland and Tigard; a couple of evenings I ended up spending most of the night in a pizza parlor near my PSU T.A. office waiting for someone to clear either I-5 or the parallel Barbur Blvd. After spending the first 40+ years of my life in CA, having winter disrupt my local travel was a new one on me. Particularly "chilling" was the ice buildup on the Willamette River bridges -- especially those with steel grates as the driving surface!
Over the last few winters, Portland has been hit particularly hard by ice and snow. Enough so that, if the list in the OP was limited to just the last 10 years, I bet Portland would shoot way up the list.
As I recall reading, Portland has a lot of issues with ice because of the Columbia River Gorge. The humid, milder air, on the west side of the Cascades, combines with the cold, dry air on the east side. I'm not sure why these conditions contribute to ice, but they seem to in Portland quite a lot.
White Christmas? What is that? :-D
Quote from: jakeroot on November 22, 2017, 06:58:02 PM
Over the last few winters, Portland has been hit particularly hard by ice and snow. Enough so that, if the list in the OP was limited to just the last 10 years, I bet Portland would shoot way up the list.
As I recall reading, Portland has a lot of issues with ice because of the Columbia River Gorge. The humid, milder air, on the west side of the Cascades, combines with the cold, dry air on the east side. I'm not sure why these conditions contribute to ice, but they seem to in Portland quite a lot.
This list is based on climate, not weather. You can't distinguish a 0.1% difference with under 200 years of data.
Quote from: 1 on November 22, 2017, 10:33:50 PM
Quote from: jakeroot on November 22, 2017, 06:58:02 PM
Over the last few winters, Portland has been hit particularly hard by ice and snow. Enough so that, if the list in the OP was limited to just the last 10 years, I bet Portland would shoot way up the list.
This list is based on climate, not weather. You can't distinguish a 0.1% difference with under 200 years of data.
Always ready to correct someone as usual,
1. ;-)
I thought the list was based on the number of white Christmas' over a select period.
Taking meteorology classes back in school I seem to remember that the average temperature, precipitation and snowfall were based on their average over the last 30 years. The 200 year stuff is mainly for historical data and records.
St Louis more than likely won't get a White Christmas.
Probably more so a wet Christmas like back in 2015. :-D
Wet? maybe! Snow -- possibly up on Mt. Hamilton; it's happened 3 of the 5 winters I've been in San Jose. But down here on the barely-above-sea-level flatlands, only a chance in hell! We got up to 80 the day after Thanksgiving, so even a cold Christmas isn't a certainty (although it rained and only got up to about 56 today!).
La Nina and a predicted cold snap have meant odds are reduced to 4/6 (https://www.metro.news/odds-slashed-on-white-christmas-as-britain-is-set-to-freeze/834856/). Traditionally the odds are about a single flake of snow on the roof of the Met Office building in London but they've added alternative sites (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/snow/white-christmas).
2009 and 2010 had snow on the ground at more than half the weather stations in Britain, and snow was falling Christmas Day at 10-20% of stations. In 2010, my area had over a foot of snow a few days before, but no snow after that blizzard and much it of it had melted as it was sunny (though that means very cold for most of the day due to the heat escaping at night and the sun not being that strong this far north at that time of year) for there on out (same 2009, but less so - there were perhaps a few patches left that year rather than a relatively high amount). I ate Christmas Dinner at a neighbours, outside in a marquee. Other than that, the only time I've seen snow at Christmas was 2011, on the mountains near Los Angeles.
But mostly it's too early for lots of snow with a maritime climate. A White Easter is more likely than a White Christmas. My Birthday is four months after Christmas (to the day) and there was significant snow on the ground after an overnight flurry in 1989 (I got a slide for the garden, and it had to be inside as there was a few inches of snow outside), my mum said it snowed in '91 as well, and it snowed a tiny amount this year - this is about as good as the Christmas Day levels of snow despite being a month into Spring.
The Dickensian White Christmas was a few 2010-esque years when Dickens was young (during The Little Ice Age). A Christmas Carol's snow on the ground in London is nostalgic as even then the snow usually came later in the year. Now it rarely comes at all. Love Actually rightly referred to it as a miracle with snow settling on Christmas Eve in inner London (add in that it was after the warm/wet 90s winters and before the few cold/snow winters in my lifetime) - the urban heat island effect, its low-lying nature, and it being sheltered from the south, north and west by hills, means that it gets far less snow (and almost never settling) than even the surrounding areas. But London in snow is somehow a Christmas image thanks to Dickens remembering some freak years in his childhood and injecting them into the culture in such a big way (Bing and that from America added to the falsehood). In 2010, my parents travelled at an average of walking pace on the M25 due to the snowfall - the guy in front fell asleep as visibility was too low to move for a while (and even they, only about 10 miles away, were shocked at my "about 8 inches" estimate of what we'd got, which was an underestimate), but couple of inches of snow melted not long after it touched the ground in Inner London just over 20 miles away, and my Grandparents further east than London and next to the sea didn't understand why we weren't sure if we'd be able to visit them on the next afternoon as they had only had a few flakes.
Quote from: sparker on November 27, 2017, 02:59:08 AM
Wet? maybe! Snow -- possibly up on Mt. Hamilton; it's happened 3 of the 5 winters I've been in San Jose. But down here on the barely-above-sea-level flatlands, only a chance in hell! We got up to 80 the day after Thanksgiving, so even a cold Christmas isn't a certainty (although it rained and only got up to about 56 today!).
Mt. Hamilton isn't in San Jose, any more than Snoqualmie Summit is in Seattle.
Seattle has some snow in the city most years, but it falls and typically melts within hours or a couple of days, so it's still a long shot having snow on the ground on Christmas.
Quote from: kkt on November 27, 2017, 04:58:59 PM
Quote from: sparker on November 27, 2017, 02:59:08 AM
Wet? maybe! Snow -- possibly up on Mt. Hamilton; it's happened 3 of the 5 winters I've been in San Jose. But down here on the barely-above-sea-level flatlands, only a chance in hell! We got up to 80 the day after Thanksgiving, so even a cold Christmas isn't a certainty (although it rained and only got up to about 56 today!).
Mt. Hamilton isn't in San Jose, any more than Snoqualmie Summit is in Seattle.
I'm guessing that's part of the gag...
Yeah, there could be a white Christmas -- in the mountains!