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How will the Roe v. Wade ruling affect traffic patterns in your area?

Started by KCRoadFan, June 24, 2022, 06:56:37 PM

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KCRoadFan

With the recent news of Roe v. Wade (the abortion ruling) being overturned, I thought I might post about it - not to get political or anything, but just to see what the effect will be on the roads. My guess is that we'll be seeing a lot more eastbound traffic on I-70 in Missouri, headed towards Illinois. What do you think the traffic impact will be like in your area?

(By the way, I really hope this doesn't become an angry argument - just wanted to ask about this from a road/travel perspective.)


Max Rockatansky

In what context?  As in avoiding protests or something?  I've never encountered a protest while driving before, so I don't anticipate having it happen now.

As an aside, one of the nicest things about leaving the country for a couple weeks I've found is how little American news actually gets to me.  Really puts into perspective how much mass media exposure there is state side when I can go almost a whole day and not hear about major domestic news stories. 

Rothman

Remember Roe v. Wade was only 50 years ago.  Makes you wonder how significant the flows from abortion-banned to abortion-legal states were and will be.

Given that only those with means will be able to do so, probably not very.
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

KCRoadFan

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 24, 2022, 07:06:14 PM
In what context?  As in avoiding protests or something?

I was more talking about people living in states where abortion is banned, going to ones where it's not.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: KCRoadFan on June 24, 2022, 07:36:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 24, 2022, 07:06:14 PM
In what context?  As in avoiding protests or something?

I was more talking about people living in states where abortion is banned, going to ones where it's not.

I think that's probably a little naive to expect a sudden mass migration or major shift in traffic patterns.  Certainly people will travel as the need arises, but that won't be anything significant to the overall traffic count of any road. 

NWI_Irish96

Quote from: KCRoadFan on June 24, 2022, 07:36:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 24, 2022, 07:06:14 PM
In what context?  As in avoiding protests or something?

I was more talking about people living in states where abortion is banned, going to ones where it's not.

So the number of abortions throughout the US is about 1750/day and unless 100% of them are all going to another state and using the same roads to do so, it's an entirely negligible traffic impact.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
Michigan: counties 100%, highways 56%
Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

Alps

Mod hat on: do not post anything political in this thread. This thread is limited to discussion of traffic patterns as it relates to this ruling. No matter what your opinion or position on the political spectrum is, limit this to traffic only or it will be locked. Thank you and those of you who have started the discussion within these bounds.


Personally, I live in an area (northeast) unlikely to see any serious changes. This is going to be a question of where people live and which states go for what changes. Someone in south Florida or San Antonio-Austin would likely have to fly if Florida or Texas disallows abortions. If multiple adjacent states outlaw it, same issue for the middle states. It's hazy as to which states will rule what thus far, so ultimately this may be too far OT to save even with our best efforts to discuss traffic impacts. It seems like somewhere around 1% of women of childbearing age have an abortion each year, which is about 1/300 of the total population (give or take, may be a bit lower). So a state with 3,000,000 people would have about 10,000 abortions a year - divide by 365 and that gives you about 30 a day. That really would not have an impact on traffic on any given road, since it would be spread throughout the state. A state with 30,000,000 people would still only have 300 a day, which is still not going to register on the roads of a much larger state.
In closing, I think fairly definitively, no there would not be an effect on the roads overall. The only place where I would expect an effect is right by an agency that performs abortions legally in a location fairly close to a state that disallows it. But that'd be so localized as to largely be irrelevant here.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on June 24, 2022, 07:44:27 PM
Quote from: KCRoadFan on June 24, 2022, 07:36:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 24, 2022, 07:06:14 PM
In what context?  As in avoiding protests or something?

I was more talking about people living in states where abortion is banned, going to ones where it's not.

So the number of abortions throughout the US is about 1750/day and unless 100% of them are all going to another state and using the same roads to do so, it's an entirely negligible traffic impact.

This. I think this thread should be preemptively closed. It has zero impact on roads.

US 89

I expect there to be protests in the usual places with the usual traffic impacts.

hbelkins

There will be no changes in traffic patterns in my rural area.

I have noticed comments from some activist groups and large employers (Dick's Sporting Goods is one) that they will pay for or make arrangements for transport to legal states from illegal states. So there may be an increase in multi-passenger vehicle traffic leaving central pickup points in illegal states heading for legal states.

I know that each state has its own medical facility licensing requirements, but it's possible that clinics will sprout up in legal states near borders of illegal states and these will become cross-border destinations (like lottery tickets, cigarettes, non-sales-tax-collecting retail outlets, liquor stores, etc.) that were discussed in another thread if anyone wants to find the link to it.

I don't know what the status of legal vs. non-legal states is, but if Ohio is legal, I'd expect some traffic to cross into Cincinnati. If Indiana is legal, there will be traffic crossing the river from Louisville. Should Virginia go (or stay) legal, it would not be surprising to see a clinic open in the Wise-Norton area to draw customers from eastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia. I also expect Illinois to be legal, so it's possible that a clinic would open in Metropolis to draw clients from western Kentucky.

It's something of a dying tradition in Kentucky, as more counties go wet, but the county line alcohol store was a staple at jurisdictional borders between wet and dry areas. A liquor store just inside Perry County on KY 15 near the Breathitt County line used to draw a brisk business. And I remember a liquor store on Big Hill Avenue (US 421) in Richmond that used to advertise, "last chance for 120 (or thereabouts) miles." The next community beyond Richmond through which US 421 passed where alcohol was legally available was Harlan. (Think the line in the song "Nine Pound Hammer," "it's a long way to Harlan; it's a long way to Hazard; just to get a little brew; just to get a little brew."

Long story short, there is no reason to believe that abortion providers will not set up shop near jurisdictions where it's illegal, and these will generate traffic in those areas.


Government would be tolerable if not for politicians and bureaucrats.

Takumi

I don't think anything will change. Currently Virginia is legal, but that could change in a future General Assembly. Getting a vasectomy just moved way up on my priority list.
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Don't @ me. Seriously.

Alps

Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 24, 2022, 08:05:05 PM
Quote from: NWI_Irish96 on June 24, 2022, 07:44:27 PM
Quote from: KCRoadFan on June 24, 2022, 07:36:49 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 24, 2022, 07:06:14 PM
In what context?  As in avoiding protests or something?

I was more talking about people living in states where abortion is banned, going to ones where it's not.

So the number of abortions throughout the US is about 1750/day and unless 100% of them are all going to another state and using the same roads to do so, it's an entirely negligible traffic impact.

This. I think this thread should be preemptively closed. It has zero impact on roads.
Near zero, not exactly zero, but I want to give people a chance to read my explanation of traffic impacts to understand why they are near zero impacts overall. It takes a traffic mindset.

gonealookin

Quote from: Alps on June 24, 2022, 07:46:50 PM
The only place where I would expect an effect is right by an agency that performs abortions legally in a location fairly close to a state that disallows it. But that'd be so localized as to largely be irrelevant here.

The Oregon branch of Planned Parenthood has already leased space in Ontario, Oregon, and today confirmed plans to open a clinic where abortions will be performed in that space, to accommodate the expected demand from the main population centers of Idaho.

Nevada's only abortion clinics are in Las Vegas (7) and Reno (2).  I am unaware of any effort to open one elsewhere (logically Elko, I guess, which could serve both Utah and Idaho).

Impact on traffic?  No, not at all.

michravera

Quote from: KCRoadFan on June 24, 2022, 06:56:37 PM
With the recent news of Roe v. Wade (the abortion ruling) being overturned, I thought I might post about it - not to get political or anything, but just to see what the effect will be on the roads. My guess is that we'll be seeing a lot more eastbound traffic on I-70 in Missouri, headed towards Illinois. What do you think the traffic impact will be like in your area?

(By the way, I really hope this doesn't become an angry argument - just wanted to ask about this from a road/travel perspective.)

It looks like the statistics say that the states most likely to restrict or ban abortion tend to be the states in which the fewest already occur. So, apart from Texas (in which there were less than 60000 in 2020), I can guess that it won't change traffic patterns much. Even, if all 60000 abortions in Texas had to be performed somewhere else, allowing 5-day-a-week clinic operation in other states, that's only an extra 250 vehicles per day. I-10 into New Mexico can probably handle that, but it is an extreme number.


jeffandnicole

Quote from: KCRoadFan on June 24, 2022, 06:56:37 PM
With the recent news of Roe v. Wade (the abortion ruling) being overturned, I thought I might post about it - not to get political or anything, but just to see what the effect will be on the roads. My guess is that we'll be seeing a lot more eastbound traffic on I-70 in Missouri, headed towards Illinois. What do you think the traffic impact will be like in your area?

(By the way, I really hope this doesn't become an angry argument - just wanted to ask about this from a road/travel perspective.)

What the hell?  How many people do you think are getting the procedure?

And why would traffic only increase going eastbound?  Wouldn't they need to return back westbound from Illinois after they are done with the procedure? 

bing101

Quote from: KCRoadFan on June 24, 2022, 06:56:37 PM
With the recent news of Roe v. Wade (the abortion ruling) being overturned, I thought I might post about it - not to get political or anything, but just to see what the effect will be on the roads. My guess is that we'll be seeing a lot more eastbound traffic on I-70 in Missouri, headed towards Illinois. What do you think the traffic impact will be like in your area?

(By the way, I really hope this doesn't become an angry argument - just wanted to ask about this from a road/travel perspective.)
The Downtown sections of state capitals will get an increase in traffic to go the Capital building.  Tower Bridge, US-50, and I-5 will get this for downtown district.

zachary_amaryllis

When I was out delivering tonight, I had to wait about 10 minutes at one of the main intersections in town (College/Mulberry for the locals) while a protest marched down the main drag. Cops blocked the intersection, and they had a head and tail escort.
clinched:
I-64, I-80, I-76 (west), *64s in hampton roads, 225,270,180 (co, wy)

SSOWorld

Scott O.

Not all who wander are lost...
Ah, the open skies, wind at my back, warm sun on my... wait, where the hell am I?!
As a matter of fact, I do own the road.
Raise your what?

Wisconsin - out-multiplexing your state since 1918.

thspfc


1995hoo

I expect demonstrations might affect me this Monday when I drive to Union Station in DC, so I plan to use a different route than the one I normally take in order to avoid driving through the area between the Capitol and Supreme Court on the one hand and Union Station on the other.

Aside from that, I cannot imagine there will be any noticeable change in traffic volumes or patterns related to this except, of course, that in states where the procedure is banned there will be a change in traffic flow at places that formerly offered the procedure due to a loss of business. While surely there will be people who travel to obtain the procedure, I highly doubt the numbers are so significant that it will create that noticeable of an effect on the highways as compared to any other travel–or, for that matter, at the Mexican border, as presumably some people living in areas closer to the border might opt to head to Mexico instead of to another state. (I almost said "conceivably" instead of "presumably" but then decided errr, maybe that's not the best word in this context.)
"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"
—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

kernals12

It won't. Depending on whose counting, there's between 600 and 900 thousand abortions in this country every year. Next to the hundreds of billions of trips people make every year, that's not even a rounding error.

Another thing: unlike in 1973, we now have abortion pills. And Attorney General Merrick Garland says that states can't ban FDA approved pharmaceuticals, which would basically make all of this irrelevant.

jp the roadgeek

Not much.  I'm landlocked in a series of blue states, so it's not like people will be coming in from surrounding states.
Interstates I've clinched: 97, 290 (MA), 291 (CT), 291 (MA), 293, 295 (DE-NJ-PA), 295 (RI-MA), 384, 391, 395 (CT-MA), 395 (MD), 495 (DE), 610 (LA), 684, 691, 695 (MD), 695 (NY), 795 (MD)

skluth

Quote from: KCRoadFan on June 24, 2022, 06:56:37 PM
With the recent news of Roe v. Wade (the abortion ruling) being overturned, I thought I might post about it - not to get political or anything, but just to see what the effect will be on the roads. My guess is that we'll be seeing a lot more eastbound traffic on I-70 in Missouri, headed towards Illinois. What do you think the traffic impact will be like in your area?

(By the way, I really hope this doesn't become an angry argument - just wanted to ask about this from a road/travel perspective.)

There is probably more eastbound traffic into Illinois from Missouri from those visiting cannabis dispensaries (legal in Illinois vs medical only in MO) daily than you'd get in a month at Illinois abortion providers. I doubt traffic will be an issue anywhere except immediately surrounding any providers near state lines (in Missouri's case, wherever a clinic may be in East St Louis, Alton, Quincy, or some other Mississippi River city).

Rothman



Quote from: kernals12 on June 25, 2022, 10:12:40 AM
It won't. Depending on whose counting, there's between 600 and 900 thousand abortions in this country every year. Next to the hundreds of billions of trips people make every year, that's not even a rounding error.

Another thing: unlike in 1973, we now have abortion pills. And Attorney General Merrick Garland says that states can't ban FDA approved pharmaceuticals, which would basically make all of this irrelevant.

Well, if AG said it...

Dude, Garland's opinion doesn't matter.  Please review the role of the AG...
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

roadman65

Quote from: KCRoadFan on June 24, 2022, 06:56:37 PM
With the recent news of Roe v. Wade (the abortion ruling) being overturned, I thought I might post about it - not to get political or anything, but just to see what the effect will be on the roads. My guess is that we'll be seeing a lot more eastbound traffic on I-70 in Missouri, headed towards Illinois. What do you think the traffic impact will be like in your area?

(By the way, I really hope this doesn't become an angry argument - just wanted to ask about this from a road/travel perspective.)

The problem is the trolls on here especially one who is nameless might get into it.
Every day is a winding road, you just got to get used to it.

Sheryl Crowe



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