Non-Road Boards > Weather
Concept for New Hurricane Rating System
CoreySamson:
Concept graphic time. This map delineates what kinds of impacts the areas marked would see. Green areas would receive TC1-level impacts, yellow areas would receive TC2 impacts, and so forth going up the line. I envision this graphic replacing the cone of uncertainty, as this tracks the extent of impacts, not the storm's center, which is more helpful overall. Someone who sees the graphic from New Orleans would instantly know they are in a TC3 zone and could prepare accordingly. For non-weather aware people, this would be a game changer (most people just want to know the impacts for their town when a hurricane is coming, I've noticed). This map could even be linked with evacuation zones so local officials could have better grounds for mandatory evacuations. This map is a representation of what such a map could look like for a storm like Ida last year.
Thoughts?
epzik8:
--- Quote from: CoreySamson on September 09, 2022, 11:11:41 PM ---Concept graphic time. This map delineates what kinds of impacts the areas marked would see. Green areas would receive TC1-level impacts, yellow areas would receive TC2 impacts, and so forth going up the line. I envision this graphic replacing the cone of uncertainty, as this tracks the extent of impacts, not the storm's center, which is more helpful overall. Someone who sees the graphic from New Orleans would instantly know they are in a TC3 zone and could prepare accordingly. For non-weather aware people, this would be a game changer (most people just want to know the impacts for their town when a hurricane is coming, I've noticed). This map could even be linked with evacuation zones so local officials could have better grounds for mandatory evacuations. This map is a representation of what such a map could look like for a storm like Ida last year.
Thoughts?
--- End quote ---
Very tight graphic and explanation, and definitely more advanced than the cone.
jgb191:
--- Quote from: CoreySamson on September 09, 2022, 07:21:22 PM ---Most deaths in hurricanes are due to water (either flooding or storm surge), not wind, which is what the SS scale measures.
--- End quote ---
The storm surge does indeed cause the most destruction/fatalities, however the main driver of the hurricane is the central pressure of the system. A pressure reading close to (almost) 1,000 millibars is a rather weak for a tropical system, whereas a reading closer to 900 millibars makes for one of the most intense storms. The lower the millibars, the higher the winds. The higher the winds, the larger the storm surge. Of course other factors will also determine impact, like how heavily populated the area of landfall is, how many people take the watches/warnings seriously, how efficient are the evacuation routes, elevation of the land area. Believe it or not, tornadoes are even formed from landfalling hurricanes; those can exacerbate the impact.
Here is my thing with the Triple S as I like to call it: (Saffir-Simpson Scale) I don't like how the categories are spaced out. I believe it should be an upgrade for every twenty MPH increments.
C1: 75 - 95 MPH
C2: 95 - 115 MPH
C3: 115 - 135 MPH
C4: 135 - 155 MPH
C5: 155+ MPH
That's how I would have liked it....evenly spaced for easier classification. Even more, add two more categories: C6 would be from 155 - 175 MPH and C7 would be from 175 - 195 MPH.
Fun Fact: Robert Simpson and I share the same home city: Corpus Christi, Texas.
SectorZ:
--- Quote from: jgb191 on September 12, 2022, 02:16:23 AM ---
--- Quote from: CoreySamson on September 09, 2022, 07:21:22 PM ---Most deaths in hurricanes are due to water (either flooding or storm surge), not wind, which is what the SS scale measures.
--- End quote ---
The storm surge does indeed cause the most destruction/fatalities, however the main driver of the hurricane is the central pressure of the system. A pressure reading close to (almost) 1,000 millibars is a rather weak for a tropical system, whereas a reading closer to 900 millibars makes for one of the most intense storms. The lower the millibars, the higher the winds. The higher the winds, the larger the storm surge. Of course other factors will also determine impact, like how heavily populated the area of landfall is, how many people take the watches/warnings seriously, how efficient are the evacuation routes, elevation of the land area. Believe it or not, tornadoes are even formed from landfalling hurricanes; those can exacerbate the impact.
Here is my thing with the Triple S as I like to call it: (Saffir-Simpson Scale) I don't like how the categories are spaced out. I believe it should be an upgrade for every twenty MPH increments.
C1: 75 - 95 MPH
C2: 95 - 115 MPH
C3: 115 - 135 MPH
C4: 135 - 155 MPH
C5: 155+ MPH
That's how I would have liked it....evenly spaced for easier classification. Even more, add two more categories: C6 would be from 155 - 175 MPH and C7 would be from 175 - 195 MPH.
Fun Fact: Robert Simpson and I share the same home city: Corpus Christi, Texas.
--- End quote ---
The winds are spaced out the way they are because those changes in wind speeds start leaping from one level of destruction to another, hence why even their spacing isn't the same from one to another.
This explains well, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
jgb191:
^ I see your point, but wind speed isn't necessarily directly proportional to the amount of destruction as was the case in 1999. Hurricane Bret slammed onto the South Texas coast with 120 MPH winds but since Kenedy County is the most sparsely populated county in the US, the damage was minimal amounting to about only several million dollars, while nearly a month later Hurricane Floyd made landfall in the Carolinas with 105 MPH winds but inflicted several billion dollars in destruction. The two reasons Floyd was worse than Bret was because the Carolinas coast was more densely populated than South Texas coast, and because you may remember Hurricane Dennis struck the Carolinas a couple of weeks before Floyd did, so it was double trouble for the Carolinas.
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