I spotted this interesting thread on Skyscraperpage forums about small cities that could be one day be very big due to some factors like explotations of ressources, geographical location
like Red Deer AB half-way between Edmonton and Calgary, or Guelph between Toronto and Kitchener-Waterloo or improved access to some areas who have growth opportunities like the Okanagan Valley. http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=228981
I can see Flagstaff, AZ passing 100,000 residents in the next couple decades. The city has been booming for awhile and is actually quite strikingly different than Phoenix or Tucson.
I could envision Texarkana becoming big. (Who cares about NWA at this point? Fayetteville is doing well for themselves)!
Bend/Redmond/Prineville OR looks to be a prime candidate for such an event in Oregon. Medford OR and the surrounding cities of Grants Pass to the north with Phoenix and Ashland to the south have plenty of room to fill in the gaps between them while the distances are small.
Rick
I could see St. George, UT in that position. Many things have already happened to illustrate its high growth, including:
There is a new regional airport with flights on Delta, United, and American.
The Southern Parkway (UT-7) is a new freeway to the airport which could become a focus for future development.
They are planning to 6-lane I-15 through St. George.
Not much room for development to the north and west due to mountains, but there's a lot of room to the northeast towards Hurricane along the SR-9 Corridor.
Cities with strong labor unions will probably grow faster.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 05, 2017, 11:56:32 AM
Cities with strong labor unions will probably grow faster.
Care to qualify that statement? I saw that because almost all Mid-Western cities that are on the decline had huge blue collar based labor unions. There certainly is some causality in the automotive sector with jobs being pushed overseas due to inflated union workforce payroll figures.
A better question would be is there any under the radar Mid-West cities that are actually growing quickly? Indianapolis is the only big city I can think of off the top of my head that has had significant growth in the last couple decades.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on August 05, 2017, 12:15:14 PM
Care to qualify that statement?
Nobody wants to live in a city where a bunch of corporate thugs bust the unions.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 05, 2017, 12:18:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on August 05, 2017, 12:15:14 PM
Care to qualify that statement?
Nobody wants to live in a city where a bunch of corporate thugs bust the unions.
You sure about that? Last I checked most of the migration in the US was to the Sunbelt and West Coast. I don't think many name companies are about Union busting in terms of how it was done in the old days. Workers protection laws have really have replaced the role of unions in regards to workplace rights. The primary reason why labor unions got so big in the US in the early 20th century was because companies really did do some really shady, dangerous, and outright awful things to their employees. There is no way modern companies could get away with stuff like the big collar companies used to with how laws have changed domestically.
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on August 05, 2017, 12:15:14 PM
Quote from: bandit957 on August 05, 2017, 11:56:32 AM
Cities with strong labor unions will probably grow faster.
Care to qualify that statement? I saw that because almost all Mid-Western cities that are on the decline had huge blue collar based labor unions. There certainly is some causality in the automotive sector with jobs being pushed overseas due to inflated union workforce payroll figures.
A better question would be is there any under the radar Mid-West cities that are actually growing quickly? Indianapolis is the only big city I can think of off the top of my head that has had significant growth in the last couple decades.
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2013/5/7/1207524/-Shift-Change anybody seen Worker co-ops movie like Shift Change. Well Cleveland was cited for having the Evergreen co-op it was an attempt to revive the economy in Ohio though at the time of film.
Greenville, NC comes to mind. It recently surpassed 90,000 and is set to reach 100,000 within the next decade.
Quote from: LM117 on August 05, 2017, 03:13:13 PM
Greenville, NC comes to mind. It recently surpassed 90,000 and is set to reach 100,000 within the next decade.
Greenville's growth is tied closely to ECU and Vidant so it'll probably top out at just over 100,000. I'm not sure what industries they can attract to drive further growth since they have to compete with RTP for top tier tech companies. Right now, it's benefiting greatly from a low COL that will surely be going up in a few years. The upcoming mayoral election is going to be an interesting barometer on where the city's residents see it going and what growth policies they support.
I would be inclined to think any city with a major state university has a shot at getting huge one day, especially if located next to an interstate. In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point. Ames may eventually fuse with Des Moines.
Quote from: DandyDan on August 06, 2017, 05:24:14 AM
I would be inclined to think any city with a major state university has a shot at getting huge one day, especially if located next to an interstate. In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point. Ames may eventually fuse with Des Moines.
On that note, I seem to think that Columbia, MO, and Lincoln, NE, seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.
I would go with Sioux Falls SD. It went from 120,000 in 2000 up to about 170,000 today. I could see it surpassing 200,000 within 10 years. If you count that big.
Quote from: TheArkansasRoadgeek on August 04, 2017, 08:31:09 PM
I could envision Texarkana becoming big. (Who cares about NWA at this point? Fayetteville is doing well for themselves)!
In the sci-fi novel "A Canticle for Leibowitz," Texarkana becomes the major city-state in the post-apocalyptic civilization that arises from America's ashes.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 05, 2017, 12:18:38 PM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on August 05, 2017, 12:15:14 PM
Care to qualify that statement?
Nobody wants to live in a city where a bunch of corporate thugs bust the unions.
... and nobody *CAN* live in a city where a bunch of union thugs have busted the corporations!
Unions and corporations need to realize that, to a large extent, what is good for one is good for the other. No profits mean no jobs. Decent profits mean decent wages. Don't give away your ass, but don't ask the other guy to give away the store. Get the best deal that you can, but don't go busting.
Quote from: TravelingBethelite on August 06, 2017, 08:08:56 AM
Quote from: DandyDan on August 06, 2017, 05:24:14 AM
I would be inclined to think any city with a major state university has a shot at getting huge one day, especially if located next to an interstate. In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point. Ames may eventually fuse with Des Moines.
On that note, I seem to think that Columbia, MO, and Lincoln, NE, seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.
This effect seems dulled in New England. While Burlington, Vermont has seen growth around UVM, UNH and Maine haven't brought the same to Durham and Orono. The area around Durham has seen growth but that's tied to the continued sprawl of Boston.
Universities drive growth in Boston but not in Amherst. Of course, Boston has Harvard, MIT, BC and BU.
Quote from: michravera on August 06, 2017, 01:30:09 PM
Decent profits mean decent wages.
If it did, wages would be higher than they are now.
Of course, where one WANTS to live tends to take a back seat to where one can find work. If I had my way, I would have never moved out of Rochester after college. Unfortunately, life had other plans.
Quote from: DandyDan on August 06, 2017, 05:24:14 AM
In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point.
IMHO, there's been an exurban feel between Cedar Rapids and North Liberty for years now - old 965 may not be heavily urbanized, but it's got more developments than, say US 6 east of Iowa City to West Liberty.
Iowa City also seems to be making a strong effort to grow out to the Hoover Highway interchange on I-80.
Quote from: TravelingBethelite on August 06, 2017, 08:08:56 AM
On that note, I seem to think that Columbia, MO, and Lincoln, NE, seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.
Lincoln is doing extremely well. I would not be surprised if the population was over 300,000 by the 2020 census.
Quote from: vdeane on August 06, 2017, 05:46:43 PM
Quote from: michravera on August 06, 2017, 01:30:09 PM
Decent profits mean decent wages.
If it did, wages would be higher than they are now.
Of course, where one WANTS to live tends to take a back seat to where one can find work. If I had my way, I would have never moved out of Rochester after college. Unfortunately, life had other plans.
+1
If I had my way, I'd still be in New Hampshire. But you know, limited job opportunities being what they are......
A real "dark horse" might be a city that grows a lot for reasons we might not currently expect.
Past examples of this would be Las Vegas and Phoenix. Go back 60-70 years and these cities were a lot smaller than today, and it probably was not anticipated that they would grow into what they are today. But, the proliferation of air conditioning has dramatically increased the willingness of many to live in these kinds of desert cities, and the fact that it's just about always sunny makes them attractive.
So a good question to ask might be... what cities are in an area that is currently not heavily populated but might become more attractive due to an advancement in technology?
Quote from: Duke87 on August 06, 2017, 11:35:44 PM
A real "dark horse" might be a city that grows a lot for reasons we might not currently expect.
Past examples of this would be Las Vegas and Phoenix. Go back 60-70 years and these cities were a lot smaller than today, and it probably was not anticipated that they would grow into what they are today. But, the proliferation of air conditioning has dramatically increased the willingness of many to live in these kinds of desert cities, and the fact that it's just about always sunny makes them attractive.
So a good question to ask might be... what cities are in an area that is currently not heavily populated but might become more attractive due to an advancement in technology?
Funny you mention that. I think that both cities are due for a decline, especially as water becomes more scarce and droughts more common. The American Southwest is an ecological nightmare and we probably shouldn't have settled it as densely as we did. We'll probably look back on that in about a century or so and realize our mistake.
But yeah, predicting boom towns is always a fool's game. You never know what's going to catch on and why.
I would posit that the Spokane-Coeur d'Alene corridor will become one of the western U.S.' faster growing metroplexes in the not-too-distant future; already a number of tech companies (including several friends from the audio industry) have relocated to the area (Hayden, ID is a hotbed of such). Winters, while cold, aren't too severe (the worst local weather happens to the west between Spokane and the Columbia River) -- and a nice area for winter sports. Good for warehousing (close RR service) as well as manufacturing, plenty of water, and a relatively benign political atmosphere (the Hayden Lake neo-Nazis seem to have scattered). Besides, it's pretty damn scenic -- the mountains and all that water does help!
Quote from: The Nature Boy on August 06, 2017, 10:20:44 PM
Quote from: vdeane on August 06, 2017, 05:46:43 PM
Quote from: michravera on August 06, 2017, 01:30:09 PM
Decent profits mean decent wages.
If it did, wages would be higher than they are now.
Of course, where one WANTS to live tends to take a back seat to where one can find work. If I had my way, I would have never moved out of Rochester after college. Unfortunately, life had other plans.
+1
If I had my way, I'd still be in New Hampshire. But you know, limited job opportunities being what they are......
The economic truth is that one of three things happen:
1) people get paid what they are worth
2) jobs are candidates for automation or elimination
3) Companies go out of business
Ronald Reagan made a point in the 1980s that the position of "Theater Usher" has all but been eliminated because of the minimum wage. He ponied that "I can assure you that it isn't because people enjoy finding their way to their seats in the dark!"
I wonder if the "urban rhombus" as I call it in SE Mass will grow? Attleboro seems to be okay. Taunton is growing. New Bedford also seems to be doing somewhat well. It's Fall River I'm concerned about. That city seems to be stuck in the 1930's/ early 40's.
Indio CA expect to have over 100,000 (or already there, if you include migrant laborers and seasonal residents). Imagine 250,000 people living there in 2065-2075. The Palm Springs area might have over a million residents in 2070, hopefully there's enough ground water to sustain the resort economy. Might have less agriculture by then, more for the golf courses.
Quote from: The Nature Boy on August 05, 2017, 03:41:54 PM
Quote from: LM117 on August 05, 2017, 03:13:13 PM
Greenville, NC comes to mind. It recently surpassed 90,000 and is set to reach 100,000 within the next decade.
Greenville's growth is tied closely to ECU and Vidant so it'll probably top out at just over 100,000. I'm not sure what industries they can attract to drive further growth since they have to compete with RTP for top tier tech companies. Right now, it's benefiting greatly from a low COL that will surely be going up in a few years. The upcoming mayoral election is going to be an interesting barometer on where the city's residents see it going and what growth policies they support.
Indeed. ECU saved Greenville from the same fate that struck other towns in eastern NC. I know many people were upset when Allen Thomas resigned in June. He was a very good mayor. Now he's the executive director of the Global Transpark in Kinston. If there's anyone that can turn around that 26-year money pit, it's him.
Wilson had the chance to be the home of ECU, but the city turned it down. Even without ECU, Wilson could be a bit bigger and better if they really wanted, but there's a lot of old money that runs that city that does NOT like change. Having a condescending mayor that's been in office since 1992 doesn't help, either. The word "progress" is not in their vocabulary.
Quote from: DandyDan on August 06, 2017, 05:24:14 AM
I would be inclined to think any city with a major state university has a shot at getting huge one day, especially if located next to an interstate. In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point. Ames may eventually fuse with Des Moines.
You mean like Davis, CA. It has the Univerity of California in the area and has been named as a land grant college plus its basically the Sacramento version of Berkeley and Palo Alto. UC Merced is San Joaquin Valley's UC campus but for now I don't hear any comparisons to becoming a New Silicon valley for now.
Quote from: TravelingBethelite on August 06, 2017, 08:08:56 AM
Quote from: DandyDan on August 06, 2017, 05:24:14 AM
I would be inclined to think any city with a major state university has a shot at getting huge one day, especially if located next to an interstate. In Iowa, I have to believe Iowa City and Cedar Rapids will fuse together at some point. Ames may eventually fuse with Des Moines.
On that note, I seem to think that Columbia, MO, and Lincoln, NE, seem to be doing pretty well for themselves.
Speaking of cities, or at least metro areas fusing together, having only moved away from Omaha last year, I think it's inevitable Omaha and Lincoln will be one area eventually, like Dallas and Fort Worth.
Florence, South Carolina seems to be going through a pretty good growth period.
Here in CA -- particularly in the San Joaquin Valley -- there are "clusters" of cities that, if eventually joined by development, could become collective regional powers. Tulare-Visalia-Hanford could be one of them, aided by the fact that the two major perpendicular corridors (CA 99, CA 198) intersect right between two of them and connect that point directly to the third. Further to the north -- and it's happening right now -- a linear corridor from Merced NW along CA 99 all the way to Stockton is gradually being "infilled"; while much of the land to the west of CA 99 remains in the hands of large agribusinesses, the area east of the highway -- actually east to multi-county route J7, which is also the route of the BNSF/Amtrak main line -- is gradually becoming a mixture of housing and industrial parks. Couple that with several universities (UC Merced, Cal State Stanislaus in Turlock, and the University of the Pacific in Stockton), and very active chambers of commerce and other "booster" groups, and you can see an area that will only increase in both size and influence. And while much of the housing growth, particularly in the north part of this corridor (Modesto to Stockton) is due to "commuter" residences related to Bay Area employment, more and more firms are opening facilities in the Valley, seeing both exemplary access and service (both road and rail); Honda's farm and recreational division is located between Stockton and Manteca, while Foster Farms, based in Livingston between Merced and Turlock, has greatly expanded their operation (although shrinking their roadside/CA 99 restaurant). The entire corridor's population is about 1.7M at present; it's expected to add another million by 2030. As the corridor is flanked by profitable agricultural areas, it's likely that a large part of the increased business will be related enterprises such as food processing and warehousing. If all this occurs on schedule, don't be surprised to see a renewed push for Interstate designation of CA 99 -- and possibly CA 120 between I-5 and CA 99 as well!
Quote from: The Nature Boy on August 06, 2017, 11:45:21 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on August 06, 2017, 11:35:44 PM
A real "dark horse" might be a city that grows a lot for reasons we might not currently expect.
Past examples of this would be Las Vegas and Phoenix. Go back 60-70 years and these cities were a lot smaller than today, and it probably was not anticipated that they would grow into what they are today. But, the proliferation of air conditioning has dramatically increased the willingness of many to live in these kinds of desert cities, and the fact that it's just about always sunny makes them attractive.
So a good question to ask might be... what cities are in an area that is currently not heavily populated but might become more attractive due to an advancement in technology?
Funny you mention that. I think that both cities are due for a decline, especially as water becomes more scarce and droughts more common. The American Southwest is an ecological nightmare and we probably shouldn't have settled it as densely as we did. We'll probably look back on that in about a century or so and realize our mistake.
But yeah, predicting boom towns is always a fool's game. You never know what's going to catch on and why.
I disagree. I think if it comes down to it, water pipelines could be built drawing from desalination plants.
Quote from: Plutonic Panda on August 23, 2017, 02:01:12 AM
Quote from: The Nature Boy on August 06, 2017, 11:45:21 PM
Quote from: Duke87 on August 06, 2017, 11:35:44 PM
A real "dark horse" might be a city that grows a lot for reasons we might not currently expect.
Past examples of this would be Las Vegas and Phoenix. Go back 60-70 years and these cities were a lot smaller than today, and it probably was not anticipated that they would grow into what they are today. But, the proliferation of air conditioning has dramatically increased the willingness of many to live in these kinds of desert cities, and the fact that it's just about always sunny makes them attractive.
So a good question to ask might be... what cities are in an area that is currently not heavily populated but might become more attractive due to an advancement in technology?
Funny you mention that. I think that both cities are due for a decline, especially as water becomes more scarce and droughts more common. The American Southwest is an ecological nightmare and we probably shouldn't have settled it as densely as we did. We'll probably look back on that in about a century or so and realize our mistake.
But yeah, predicting boom towns is always a fool's game. You never know what's going to catch on and why.
I disagree. I think if it comes down to it, water pipelines could be built drawing from desalination plants.
Are water bills in Phoenix amd Las Vegas high compared to wetter cities?
LGMS428
Quote from: Duke87 on August 06, 2017, 11:35:44 PM
So a good question to ask might be... what cities are in an area that is currently not heavily populated but might become more attractive due to an advancement in technology?
That is the best way to put it. The major advancement in technology (that I can anticipate, who knows) seems to be that more and more jobs are becoming more and more portable. To build something, you need a lot of people in a factory. But you can do a lot of technical things and even office work from anywhere, provided you have good internet. Therefore I see more people looking for places that a pleasant to live in terms of weather, lifestyle, infastructure, taxes, etc.
The second thing is, of course, there are more and more retirees. Still today, most people remain near their home area in retirement, but not everybody. Florida is, for want of a better word, full. And it is not for everybody. We have seen new retirement areas open up, from Myrtle Beach to Asheville, to, of all places Michigan (very retiree tax friendly, getting a lot of people out of other midwestern states who don't want to go south) and eastern Pennsylvania. That will continue. Smart states will align their tax systems for retiree friendliness.
The US 90 corridor between Lafayette and Morgan City.
The reason is because the Mississippi River is going to migrate its delta. It's been trying to shift the majority of its flow west for 100 years but man-made infrastructure keeps most of the water flowing toward New Orleans. But even properly maintained, that infrastructure is not going to hold forever. Eventually, the difference in elevation between the current Mississippi River and the Atchafalaya Basin will become too great. All it will take is one massive tropical storm (like Harvey!) at the wrong time and the levees will be breached. The release of all that energy will rapidly carve a new channel to The Gulf via the much shorter distance of the Atchafalaya River. The monumental scale and cost of engineering and construction it would take to get the river to go back to flowing to New Orleans will be too great. It will be easier to build new port facilities along the new river channel. The next New Orleans will grow somewhere in Iberia or St. Mary Parish.
Quote from: SP Cook on August 23, 2017, 10:07:11 AM
Quote from: Duke87 on August 06, 2017, 11:35:44 PM
So a good question to ask might be... what cities are in an area that is currently not heavily populated but might become more attractive due to an advancement in technology?
That is the best way to put it. The major advancement in technology (that I can anticipate, who knows) seems to be that more and more jobs are becoming more and more portable. To build something, you need a lot of people in a factory. But you can do a lot of technical things and even office work from anywhere, provided you have good internet. Therefore I see more people looking for places that a pleasant to live in terms of weather, lifestyle, infastructure, taxes, etc.
The second thing is, of course, there are more and more retirees. Still today, most people remain near their home area in retirement, but not everybody. Florida is, for want of a better word, full. And it is not for everybody. We have seen new retirement areas open up, from Myrtle Beach to Asheville, to, of all places Michigan (very retiree tax friendly, getting a lot of people out of other midwestern states who don't want to go south) and eastern Pennsylvania. That will continue. Smart states will align their tax systems for retiree friendliness.
That's a really bold and probably incorrect assumption. Increases in productivity continually reduce the amount of labor inputs needed in manufacturing.
Quote from: triplemultiplex on August 28, 2017, 09:22:25 PM
The US 90 corridor between Lafayette and Morgan City.
The reason is because the Mississippi River is going to migrate its delta. It's been trying to shift the majority of its flow west for 100 years but man-made infrastructure keeps most of the water flowing toward New Orleans. But even properly maintained, that infrastructure is not going to hold forever. Eventually, the difference in elevation between the current Mississippi River and the Atchafalaya Basin will become too great. All it will take is one massive tropical storm (like Harvey!) at the wrong time and the levees will be breached. The release of all that energy will rapidly carve a new channel to The Gulf via the much shorter distance of the Atchafalaya River. The monumental scale and cost of engineering and construction it would take to get the river to go back to flowing to New Orleans will be too great. It will be easier to build new port facilities along the new river channel. The next New Orleans will grow somewhere in Iberia or St. Mary Parish.
So after New Orleans gets destroyed by another hurricane, or floods, or the river shifts away (what disasters
can't happen there?) it's going to move to Morgan City?
Also, what would happen to the old river if the Mississippi changed course?
Quote from: roadguy2 on August 29, 2017, 01:16:06 AM
So after New Orleans gets destroyed by another hurricane, or floods, or the river shifts away (what disasters can't happen there?) it's going to move to Morgan City?
Not so much move the city as much as some small city in that area will grow to become the "new" New Orleans. New Orleans will slowly fade as the new city rises.
Quote from: roadguy2 on August 29, 2017, 01:16:06 AMAlso, what would happen to the old river if the Mississippi changed course?
The lower volumes of water mean the old channel will slowly sediment in over time. It will still be navigable for some time, depending on how far into the future the delta switch occurs, but it will be smaller and not able to handle nearly as much shipping traffic. With far less sediment being transported, the old (current) delta will gradually erode and subside. Wave action will form a new chain of barrier islands in Plaquemines Parish. In a couple centuries, what is now the Mississippi will resemble any of the smaller bayous that characterize the broader delta system of Louisiana.
Meanwhile at what is now the outlet of the Atchafalaya, the surge in water volume and commensurate sediment transport will begin to add a considerable amount of land to Louisiana. Deposition rates will probably even outpace sea level rise. If humans are smart about how they populate the new delta, they might have themselves a port city that is less vulnerable to catastrophe than the current set-up.
I don't know about it getting huge, but I could see the LaSalle - Peru Illinois area becoming big.
Quote from: inkyatari on August 30, 2017, 10:58:02 PM
I don't know about it getting huge, but I could see the LaSalle - Peru Illinois area becoming big.
Nah Peoria would be a far likelier candidate and even then I am very doubtful of anything in Illinois that is small becoming big. It's the state that has lost the most population recently. I think Billings and Bismark are possibilities though.
In Connecticut, it's a game of what city is gonna die out first. My bets are on Waterbury or Hartford.
Quote from: bandit957 on August 05, 2017, 12:18:38 PM
Nobody wants to live in a city where a bunch of corporate thugs bust the unions.
I'd like to see stronger unions everywhere, but high union membership seems to be negatively correlated with population growth, not positively. Corporate thugs want to add jobs where they don't have to worry about unions.
Quote from: triplemultiplex on August 29, 2017, 09:37:08 AM
Quote from: roadguy2 on August 29, 2017, 01:16:06 AM
So after New Orleans gets destroyed by another hurricane, or floods, or the river shifts away (what disasters can't happen there?) it's going to move to Morgan City?
Not so much move the city as much as some small city in that area will grow to become the "new" New Orleans. New Orleans will slowly fade as the new city rises.
Quote from: roadguy2 on August 29, 2017, 01:16:06 AMAlso, what would happen to the old river if the Mississippi changed course?
The lower volumes of water mean the old channel will slowly sediment in over time. It will still be navigable for some time, depending on how far into the future the delta switch occurs, but it will be smaller and not able to handle nearly as much shipping traffic. With far less sediment being transported, the old (current) delta will gradually erode and subside. Wave action will form a new chain of barrier islands in Plaquemines Parish. In a couple centuries, what is now the Mississippi will resemble any of the smaller bayous that characterize the broader delta system of Louisiana.
Meanwhile at what is now the outlet of the Atchafalaya, the surge in water volume and commensurate sediment transport will begin to add a considerable amount of land to Louisiana. Deposition rates will probably even outpace sea level rise. If humans are smart about how they populate the new delta, they might have themselves a port city that is less vulnerable to catastrophe than the current set-up.
Cities come and go.. Timbuktu was at one point in time a major trading post.. But the spead of the Sahara Desert, changes in transportation, lack of water caused it to decline so now its a small village in the middle of nowhere.
Every major city was at one time a small new village.
I was surprised to learn Birmingham, AL was founded in 1871.. I always thought it had been there a lot longer.
I am sure in 1960 no one thought Orlando would be a world wide known city at the center of a metro area of nearly 3 million
LGMS428
Ste. Genevieve, Missouri.
Quote from: The Nature Boy on August 05, 2017, 03:41:54 PM
Quote from: LM117 on August 05, 2017, 03:13:13 PM
Greenville, NC comes to mind. It recently surpassed 90,000 and is set to reach 100,000 within the next decade.
Greenville's growth is tied closely to ECU and Vidant so it'll probably top out at just over 100,000. I'm not sure what industries they can attract to drive further growth since they have to compete with RTP for top tier tech companies. Right now, it's benefiting greatly from a low COL that will surely be going up in a few years. The upcoming mayoral election is going to be an interesting barometer on where the city's residents see it going and what growth policies they support.
So have Chico, Redding, Santa Barbara, and San Marcos, CA (and probably a dozen others in California). In California, 100K barely gets your town its own name (as opposed to "Wide Spot in the Road north of Sacramento" or "East Bakersfield").
Let's talk about cities that went from 250K to 500K from 2000-2010 and could have 2 million by 2030 and whose name people who have never been to the state would likely not have heard. Are there any cities like that? I suspect that Texas, Florida, and Arizona each have a couple. New Braumfels? Fort Stockton? The Villages? Tempe?
Oklahoma City is already a fairly big city (the biggest in its state) but it's never been big enough to be on the level of Dallas or Kansas City or even Denver. As a result, OKC has this inferiority complex culture where we keep trying things, building things, trying to improve the city so that we'll be noticed.
So far it's been a slow march onward since the mid-1990s. We build a few projects, private development picks up, feeding off those projects, build something else, and so on. Sooner or later we're going to hit on something that will really put us over the top. When that happens, I expect lots of companies will give OKC a second look. Our development patterns don't play nice with most companies' sales forecasting models, so they pass up expanding here, but every company that has taken a risk and expanded here anyway has gotten a really pleasant surprise. A few more of those, plus the ongoing investment into the city from the citizens through the local goverment, means there's a perfect storm brewing for OKC to break into the big time in the next 20 years or so.
Quote from: Scott5114 on September 06, 2017, 07:09:20 PM
Oklahoma City is already a fairly big city (the biggest in its state) but it's never been big enough to be on the level of Dallas or Kansas City or even Denver. As a result, OKC has this inferiority complex culture where we keep trying things, building things, trying to improve the city so that we'll be noticed.
So far it's been a slow march onward since the mid-1990s. We build a few projects, private development picks up, feeding off those projects, build something else, and so on. Sooner or later we're going to hit on something that will really put us over the top. When that happens, I expect lots of companies will give OKC a second look. Our development patterns don't play nice with most companies' sales forecasting models, so they pass up expanding here, but every company that has taken a risk and expanded here anyway has gotten a really pleasant surprise. A few more of those, plus the ongoing investment into the city from the citizens through the local goverment, means there's a perfect storm brewing for OKC to break into the big time in the next 20 years or so.
I could see that happening, and I hope it does. Oklahoma City's population is also climbing, and has been only increasing for a long time from what I can tell. I think the city has potential. :nod:
Furthermore, should projects occur such as an I-44 extension, that would facilitate access into the city even more. Unfortunately, tornadoes are a monstrous foe for the region, but I know you always bounce back, and hopefully advancements in technology can help make those catastrophes less devastating, and facilitate growth for the city.
Quote from: triplemultiplex on August 28, 2017, 09:22:25 PM
The US 90 corridor between Lafayette and Morgan City.
The reason is because the Mississippi River is going to migrate its delta. It's been trying to shift the majority of its flow west for 100 years but man-made infrastructure keeps most of the water flowing toward New Orleans. But even properly maintained, that infrastructure is not going to hold forever. Eventually, the difference in elevation between the current Mississippi River and the Atchafalaya Basin will become too great. All it will take is one massive tropical storm (like Harvey!) at the wrong time and the levees will be breached. The release of all that energy will rapidly carve a new channel to The Gulf via the much shorter distance of the Atchafalaya River. The monumental scale and cost of engineering and construction it would take to get the river to go back to flowing to New Orleans will be too great. It will be easier to build new port facilities along the new river channel. The next New Orleans will grow somewhere in Iberia or St. Mary Parish.
That is a very intriguing fact of which I was not aware of. I know rivers shift over time, but I did not know that something that big was boiling. :wow:
Quote from: adventurernumber1 on September 06, 2017, 07:45:01 PM
Quote from: Scott5114 on September 06, 2017, 07:09:20 PM
Oklahoma City is already a fairly big city (the biggest in its state) but it's never been big enough to be on the level of Dallas or Kansas City or even Denver. As a result, OKC has this inferiority complex culture where we keep trying things, building things, trying to improve the city so that we'll be noticed.
So far it's been a slow march onward since the mid-1990s. We build a few projects, private development picks up, feeding off those projects, build something else, and so on. Sooner or later we're going to hit on something that will really put us over the top. When that happens, I expect lots of companies will give OKC a second look. Our development patterns don't play nice with most companies' sales forecasting models, so they pass up expanding here, but every company that has taken a risk and expanded here anyway has gotten a really pleasant surprise. A few more of those, plus the ongoing investment into the city from the citizens through the local goverment, means there's a perfect storm brewing for OKC to break into the big time in the next 20 years or so.
I could see that happening, and I hope it does. Oklahoma City's population is also climbing, and has been only increasing for a long time from what I can tell. I think the city has potential. :nod:
Furthermore, should projects occur such as an I-44 extension, that would facilitate access into the city even more. Unfortunately, tornadoes are a monstrous foe for the region, but I know you always bounce back, and hopefully advancements in technology can help make those catastrophes less devastating, and facilitate growth for the city.
Indeed, an I-44 extension would certainly help, as would some sort of northwest connection to Denver. Oklahoma City could certainly capitalize on the boom in ecommerce and logistics to become a hub for those industries, as it's very well placed relative to the US's four major metropolitan areas. Amazon is investing in a multimillion square foot warehousing and fulfillment center here.
While tornadoes do plague the region, in some sense they are a better problem to have than other sorts of natural disasters. An earthquake, flood, hurricane, or fire can destroy an entire city in one go. Even the worst tornadoes are only 1 mile wide and up to about 20 miles long. While the landscape can be obliterated in the affected area, only a small percentage of the city will be affected by any one storm, and the probability that any given property will be in the path of a storm is exceedingly low.
Forecasting and knowledge of common sense precautions to take during tornadoes helps to reduce the death toll from storms to numbers in the dozens rather than hundreds. Most of the deaths are due to people being in the wrong place at the wrong time (i.e. not paying attention to forecasts and going out in it), or freak occurrences such as rainwater welling up underneath shelters and pushing them out of the ground or shelters getting flooded and the occupants drowning.
What will kill the momentum the city is making is if the state government continues to do its Brownback impression and/or enacting other policies that work at cross purposes to what the city is attempting to achieve. The current governor has signed several laws outlawing OKC city ordinances soon after they are passed, and fiscal mismanagement (mostly resulting from tax cuts on the state's primary industry, oil) has led to a real crisis in the state's educational system, resulting in four-day school weeks and teacher shortages. Fixing the budget, especially with regards to education, will be the number one priority of the next governor, to be elected in 2018, and what happens then could very determine if twenty years from now OKC will be the city that came out of nowhere or just a reminder of what could have been.
Quote from: triplemultiplex on August 28, 2017, 09:22:25 PM
The US 90 corridor between Lafayette and Morgan City.
The reason is because the Mississippi River is going to migrate its delta. It's been trying to shift the majority of its flow west for 100 years but man-made infrastructure keeps most of the water flowing toward New Orleans. But even properly maintained, that infrastructure is not going to hold forever. Eventually, the difference in elevation between the current Mississippi River and the Atchafalaya Basin will become too great. All it will take is one massive tropical storm (like Harvey!) at the wrong time and the levees will be breached. The release of all that energy will rapidly carve a new channel to The Gulf via the much shorter distance of the Atchafalaya River. The monumental scale and cost of engineering and construction it would take to get the river to go back to flowing to New Orleans will be too great. It will be easier to build new port facilities along the new river channel. The next New Orleans will grow somewhere in Iberia or St. Mary Parish.
Frankly, should that fateful summer happen when the runoff from the upper Mississippi/Missouri/Ohio rivers overruns Old River Control, quite a few transit-related things will happen long before a Morgan City (should it still exist) gets major port facilities. For starters, the Tenn-Tom waterway will see much heavier use, which would results in major port expansions for Mobile. For another, the biggest user of barges on the Mississippi, grain, would use the US Land Bridge (aka rail system). The removal of regulations that require rail transit through Chicago would very quickly happen under these circumstances. And we haven't got to expanded use of the ports around Beaumont and Lake Charles.
As for the next "darkhorse" big city, in all likelihood that "darkhorse" will be within 1-2 hours commute of an already existing metro area's CBD. Think Buckeye, AZ. Or Victorville, CA. Or even Waco, TX. Bear in mind that this nation has seen a large ramp-up of physical and industrial infrastructure to handle the boom from shale oil and gas fracking. The most visible symbol of that, Williston ND, has AT MOST 55000 people surrounding it as of 2016 estimates.
Quote from: inkyatari on August 30, 2017, 10:58:02 PM
I don't know about it getting huge, but I could see the LaSalle - Peru Illinois area becoming big.
Rochelle
seems to be displaying more growth and ambition lately than La Salle - Peru, at least when driving by on I-88 compared to driving through the La Salle - Peru area on I-80 or I-39.
Quote from: dvferyance on August 31, 2017, 02:08:39 PM
Nah Peoria would be a far likelier candidate and even then I am very doubtful of anything in Illinois that is small becoming big.
Peroia seems more of one of those cities that could have been but stalled out and has been alternating between periods of growth and loss.
Quote from: nexus73 on August 05, 2017, 12:30:15 AM
Bend/Redmond/Prineville OR looks to be a prime candidate for such an event in Oregon. Medford OR and the surrounding cities of Grants Pass to the north with Phoenix and Ashland to the south have plenty of room to fill in the gaps between them while the distances are small.
Rick
Bend, OR is the city that I was going to say.
No city in Illinois is going anywhere. Illinois is slated to become an extension of the Rust Belt.
Quote from: paulthemapguy on September 10, 2017, 11:58:38 PM
No city in Illinois is going anywhere. Illinois is slated to become an extension of the Rust Belt.
Isn't it already?
Quote from: JJBers on September 11, 2017, 06:26:04 PM
Quote from: paulthemapguy on September 10, 2017, 11:58:38 PM
No city in Illinois is going anywhere. Illinois is slated to become an extension of the Rust Belt.
Isn't it already?
Chicago is still doing fairly well, but otherwise, yeah. Illinois without Chicago is basically Indiana.
Quote from: The Nature Boy on September 11, 2017, 08:18:28 PM
Quote from: JJBers on September 11, 2017, 06:26:04 PM
Quote from: paulthemapguy on September 10, 2017, 11:58:38 PM
No city in Illinois is going anywhere. Illinois is slated to become an extension of the Rust Belt.
Isn't it already?
Chicago is still doing fairly well, but otherwise, yeah. Illinois without Chicago is basically Indiana.
Some would say that might actually be better. Better credit rating, balanced budget, etc.
Quote from: Brandon on September 12, 2017, 06:23:22 AM
Quote from: The Nature Boy on September 11, 2017, 08:18:28 PM
Chicago is still doing fairly well, but otherwise, yeah. Illinois without Chicago is basically Indiana.
Some would say that might actually be better. Better credit rating, balanced budget, etc.
I would agree.
I found it interesting that Cairo, Illinois is as small as it is, being at a major geographic location; the confluence of two of the largest rivers in North America. It had a peak population of only 15,000 in the 1920s.
I don't see it happening easily in Arizona outside of the greater Phoenix area; being both the capitol and the largest city, the prevailing wisdom is that the "great state of Maricopa County" takes care of itself before the others.
As another poster mentioned, Flagstaff has a lot of potential, from the city proper to Winona and on to Winslow there's plenty of room to grow. No regional freeways other than the interstates, though 89 could easily be upgraded, along with Winona Road. Aside from Gore, Purina, and NAU there's not a lot of jobs, hence its nickname of "Poverty with a view"
Prescott has all 4 seasons, lots of room, and a partial loop expressway. Not a lot of job opportunities there either at the moment. But between Prescott, Cordes Lakes/Arcosanti, Paulden, Cottonwood, Camp Verde and Sedona, there's plenty of potential for a large metropolitan population depending on water/jobs.
Safford has lots of jobs in the mining industry. If Eastern Arizona College is able to eventually offer 4-year college degrees like it's been fighting to do, it will grow significantly. US 191 north from I-10 is 4-lane divided for all but the last 13 miles, with a full tie-in and reroute of both US 70 and US 191 studied for construction around 2040.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqKXos7piYI
Well Australia's Greater Springfield was originally an example of their version of Levittown in 1992. However 25 years later that has changed into an area that resembles Orange COunty, California today.
Would you count Cape Girardeau, Missouri as a darkhorse city?
Surprised Williston ND hasn't been mentioned. Its population almost doubled between 2010 and 2015, to about 27,000. But continuation of its rapid growth depends on the oil boom in northwestern North Dakota.